Threats from the sea are extremely foreseeable for Ukraine, and the capabilities of Ukraine’s defence forces at sea do not correspond to the level of threat there. The vast majority of the Ukrainian maritime zone is occupied. This issue is attracting increased attention from the government and society, but a clear plan to minimize the threats emanating from the sea has not yet been developed.
For several months, the Centre has worked with a number of outstanding maritime security experts to develop a fundamental study that includes a security assessment of the region and suggests a list of specific actions to be taken to respond to identified threats.
The report provides a detailed analysis of the region’s security developments in a strategic context. The situation poses a long-standing threat that stretches beyond the region.
We propose a scenario generation system
as a tool for forecasting further aggressive actions by the Russian Federation and we offer key ideas that can be put into a counter-strategy.
Besides Ukraine’s response, which must be innovative and asymmetric, the counter-strategy also envisions greater interaction and coordination with other regional and external players in a joint global effort