Russia’s war on Ukraine. 28.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled13 enemy attacks in the area of Synkivka and Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 11 enemy attacks near Terny and Rozdolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 11 enemy attacks in the areas of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and west of Pobieda, where the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian troops’ defenses 29 times. They repelled 4 enemy attacks in the areas south of Vuhledar, Staromayorske, and Urozhaine. On the Orikhiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks in the areas of Malynivka and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions and repelled 1 Russian assault.

General conclusion:

• The advance rates of the adversary’s assault tactical groups on the Lyman sector fall short of the achievement of their proximate objective – the displacement of “Khortytsia” OSG units beyond the Chornyi Zherebets River.
• The trend indicating a deteriorating situation for the forward units of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the Ivanivske area on the Bakhmut direction has solidified.
• The tasks assigned to the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade include a maneuver to bypass Klishchiivka from the north and west and capture Ivanivske in coordination with the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division.
• Following the capture of the Avdiivka defensive area and the withdrawal of the “Tavriya” OSG from Avdiivka and adjacent areas, the enemy command actively aims to advance with its striking tactical groups westward. This move is intended to prepare the ground for the next phase of its offensive, which is a predictable maneuver. Recognizing the urgency, the enemy command acknowledges its inability to grant the “Tavriya” OSG the opportunity to strengthen its positions on a new defensive line, as it lacks the resources to breach it.
• The enemy is unable to compel the withdrawal of the “Tavriya” OSG units from the northern approaches to Volodymyrivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 102 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary is focalizing its primary efforts on maneuvering westward to circumvent Synkivka and breach through along the railway toward the left-bank part of Kupyansk. The forward units of the 25th and 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 6th Army are advancing towards Synkivka-Petropavlivka, securing positions on the edge of the forest north of Synkivka. However, they have not succeeded in breaking into the village itself or further west. Intense battles persist; the enemy constantly changes attack directions, advancing from Vilshana, or along the railway, or launching frontal assaults on Synkivka.
• Units of the “Khortytsia” OSG were forced to withdraw from several positions northwest of Synkivka. On the Yahidne-Ivanivka direction, the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet unsuccessfully advances with the forces of two battalion tactical groups (BTGs). The 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army are attempting to break through in the northwest direction along the Kupyansk-Svatove road and reach the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units holding the Ivanivka-Kotlyarivka line. The enemy has not achieved success.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy engaged in battle 5 regiments simultaneously (4 motorized infantry and 1 tank) in the directions of Yampolivka and Terny: the 283rd and 488th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army, the 31^st and 37th Motorized Rifle Regiments, and the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army.  However, the enemy fails to increase the pace of advancement.
• Forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG actively counterattack and, in most cases, regain previously lost positions.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the deployment of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army allowed the enemy to somewhat increase the pace its advance towards Chasiv Yar. Specifically, its units advanced northeast of Ivanivske. The 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Division of the 3rd Army Corps advanced towards the eastern outskirts of Ivanivske, north of Klishchiivka. The 217th, 331st, and 299th Airborne Regiments of the 98th Airborne Division are attempting to break through to Chasiv Yar through Bohdanivka, but so far without success. In Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, contact battles are ongoing, and the enemy command is intensifying efforts in this area, engaging the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade northwest of Klishchiivka towards the southeastern outskirts of Ivanivske.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy has already reached the Lastochkyne-Severne line and is attempting to advance further. Its forward units are closely approaching the southeast outskirts of Orlivka, have captured Stepove, and are consolidating along the Lastochkyne-Severne line.
• The main forces of the enemy, including the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, the 35th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army, and the 15th, 21st, and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army, are attacking in the directions of Orlivka-Novoselivka Persha and Stepove-Berdychi. The vanguard of this formation consists of two special-purpose units of the 24th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. In the area of Tonenke and Pervomaiske, the 1st and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 1st Army Corps, the 87th Rifle Regiment, and the 10th Tank Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army create favorable conditions for the development of the offensive. The 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army advance towards Berdychi after regrouping.
• On the Novopavlivka (Vuhledar-Kurakhove) direction, the forward units of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, advancing towards Solodke-Novomykhailivka, attacked in the northwest direction. They secured the left flank of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet, advancing from the east. However, they were unable to fully accomplish the mission. Units of the “Tavriya” OSG countered and held control of the southern outskirts of Novomykhailivka. The enemy attempts to advance north of the Solodke-Vodyane road but cannot achieve tactically significant success.
• Between Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka, the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is advancing towards Pisky-Pervomaiske, the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps towards Maryinka-Heorhiivka, and the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps towards Staromykhailivka-Krasnohorivka (lower) and attacks south of Nevelske.
• Berdyansk direction: positional battles persisted near Staromayorske, Urozhaine, Malynivka, and Marfopil.
• Tokmak direction: positional battles persisted near Robotyne and Verbove.
• Kherson direction: positional battles persisted near Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship.
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The enemy’s strategic command continues the reorganization of the combat and operational control and command system on the theater of military operations. The “Center” operational grouping has been created for actions on the Avdiivka-Donetsk direction. It includes forces from the 2nd and 41st Army and the 90th Tank Division. The operational zone of the former “Central” operational grouping (Lyman direction, where the forces of the 20th and 25th Army operate) has become part of the “West” operational grouping.
• The enemy’s “South” operational grouping forces (mainly the 8th Army) are compelled to operate on the Bakhmut direction (2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army, 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District), Avdiivka direction (1st Army Corps, 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions), and Novopavlivka direction (68th Army Corps), which significantly complicates the command and control of the forces.
• The 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army is in reserve as part of a tactical group on the Avdiivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The enemy is poised to escalate pressure on the Kupyansk direction in previously attacked sectors and is likely to launch an attack from Pershotravneve village in the southwest direction.
• The command of the enemy’s “Center” operational grouping will try to add dynamism to the current situation on the Lyman direction by deploying several assault companies “Storm” from the 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
• Should the situation not be stabilized in the Bohdanivka-Ivanivske area, units of the “Khortytsia” OSG will be compelled to retreat from positions in Andriivka and Klishchiivka, resulting in the loss of gains achieved during the summer offensive.
• The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, the 35th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army, and the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army will soon attempt to break through as far westward as possible on a wide front between Vodyane and Orlivka, leading to battles for Orlivka and Tonenke.
• The enemy’s aspiration to advance to the Chasiv Yar area and the Novoselivka Persha-Novopokrovske line indicates its intention to initiate battles for the control of Toretsk.
• After the capture of Pobeda by the 255th and 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the enemy’s 20th Motorized Rifle Division, the advance towards Oleksandrivka-Novomykhailivka, and the advance of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet to the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka, it is evident that the enemy will soon attempt to advance south of this village towards Vodyane and complete the capture of Novomykhailivka.
• On the Shakhtarsk front, the adversary currently maintains air superiority, posing a challenge for the “Tavria” OSG forces, which exhibit in this area the least robust air defense capabilities across the entire front. As a result, anticipations include enemy efforts to break through from the Kostiantynivka – Novomykhailivka area into the flank and rear of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Defense Forces near Vuhledar. Simultaneous attacks from the front are not ruled out.
• The enemy is attempting to execute a deep encirclement of the left flank of the “Tavriya” OSG, which is defending in the Kurakhove-Vuhledar salient.
• If the “Tavriya” OSG holds the Orlivka-Tonenke line, the enemy’s tactical group, advancing in the directions of Vodyane-Netaylove and Pisky-Pervomaiske, risks falling into an operational trap.
• In the area of Robotyne, the Russian Armed Forces conducted an operation to tie down Ukrainian reserves and are now attempting to develop it into a full-fledged offensive to address tactical objectives in this section of the front.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.02.24 

Personnel – almost 412,610  people (+1,060);

Tanks – 6,570 (+14);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,508 (+14);

Artillery systems – 10,029 (+20);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,000 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 688 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,112 (+47);

Aircraft – 342 (+2);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,753 (+24);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,912 (0);

Boats/ships – 26 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 163 towns and villages and 104 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 1 person is reported dead and one wounded in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, one person died and 5 were wounded in Donetsk Oblast, 1 person died and 2 were wounded in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Ukrainian Air Defense destroyed 10 out of 10  ‘Shahed’ drones in Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts during the night of February 28th. 9 drones were shot down over Odesa Oblast.
• Russian forces launched guided airstrikes targeting the city center of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast on February 28th. The attacks resulted in damage to buildings, claiming the lives of two individuals while injuring five others. Additionally, there is concern that other people may be trapped beneath the debris.
• Since the beginning of Russia’s large-scale aggression, Ukrainian law enforcement authorities have been investigating 19 criminal cases related to the killings of 45 Ukrainian prisoners of war. This information was provided by Yuriy Byelousov, the head of the Department for Combating Crimes Committed in Armed Conflict Conditions, the Office of the Prosecutor General.
• In the course of the full-scale war instigated by Russia, nearly 4,000 instances of environmental crimes were perpetrated in Ukraine, resulting in damages exceeding 2.4 trillion hryvnias (approximately USD 63 billion).
• According to a survey conducted by the Razumkov Center’s polling service from January 19th to 25th, 2024, 70% of respondents approve of Ukraine’s foreign policy, with 17% expressing disapproval. This indicates a slight decrease from August 2023 when 74% approved and 14% did not. Support for Ukraine’s leadership’s foreign policy is prevalent across all regions, ranging from 67% in the Western region to 76.5% in the Southern region.
• The vast majority (84.3%) of surveyed Ukrainians support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, with 27% of respondents believing that this could happen within 3-5 years.
• According to Oleksiy Danilov, the Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Russian agents disseminate 166 million pieces of disinformation about Ukraine weekly across platforms like Telegram, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. Last week, 36 million aimed to discredit Ukrainian officials, 23.5 million to undermine political and military unity, 51 million to demoralize the army, and 55 million to demoralize the public. Danilov emphasized that Russia now employs AI in its fraudulent messaging, departing from the notorious troll farms of 2016.

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