Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.03.25

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced to the center of Martynovka, captured Agronom, Kolmakov, Mikhailovka, and Bogdanovka, launched offensives in Mirny and Kazachya Loknia, are attacking the outskirts of Sudzha, in the areas of Ivashkivskyi, Dmitriukov, Milove, and Guevo. Units of the 40th and 810th Separate Marines Brigades, the 177th Separate Marine Regiment, and up to two battalions of the Armed Forces of North Korea attack near Kurilovka and Guevo.

Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the direction of Novenke and Zhuravka and counterattacked near Novenke, Zhuravka, and Basivka.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk.

The UAV units of the “Kharkiv” Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) created a no-access zone beyond the line of contact, where the enemy is unable to use armored vehicles.

On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the area of Synkivka and took control of a territory of up to 8 km².

Russian forces launched offensives in the areas of Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Bohuslavka, and Hrekivka.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance southwest of Balka Zhuravka, attacked near Torske, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, Novolyubivka, Myrne, and Ivanivka.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces launched offensives in the area of Bilohorivka, in the direction of Serebrianka and Verkhnyokamianske.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, in the direction of Stupochky, Bila Hora, near Kurdyumivka.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Tobolenko Street in Toretsk and south of Krymske, launched offensives in Toretsk, near Dachne, Krymske, Druzhba, Shcherbynivka, Valentynivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the center of Shevchenkove and on the eastern outskirts of Udachne, counterattacked near Nova Poltavka, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Malynivka, Oleksandropil, Pishchane, Shevchenkove, Udachne, Kotlyne.

Russian forces advanced to Moskovska Street in Tarasivka, north and northeast of Hrodivka, attempted to advance east of Shevchenkove, to restore lost positions in the village, and are pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces from the northern and northeastern parts.

The enemy attacked near Pokrovsk, Tarasivka, Oleksandropil, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Vidrodzhennya, Zelene, Pishchane, Zvirove, Udachne, Kotlyne, Nadiivka, Preobrazhenka, Novooleksandrivka.

On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced west and southwest of Konstyantynopil, near Bahatyr and Rozlyv, launched offensives near Andriivka, Ulakly, Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Bahatyr and Rozlyv.

On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces launched offensives near Skudne, Vesele, Burlatske, Pryvilne, Novopil.

Ukrainian Defense Forces restored positions near Burlatske.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advance towards Novodanylivka, launched offensive actions in the areas of Stepove, Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Pyatykhatky.

General conclusion:

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces reinforce their tactical success and prepare to storm Sudzha in the coming days. The enemy is attempting to cut off the main logistics route of Ukrainian Defense Forces along Highway H07 (Sumy – Sudzha). The enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping currently lacks the capability to conduct an offensive operation in the northern regions of Ukraine.

On the Kupyansk direction, following improved weather conditions, the enemy has increased the intensity of airstrikes, aerial reconnaissance, and UAV attacks.

On the Toretsk direction, tensions are rising, and Russian forces actively use armored vehicles.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have recently refrained from using heavy combat equipment. Strikes by “Khortytsia” Operational-Tactical Group (OSG) hinder the enemy’s advance near Kotlyne. However, the enemy uses armored vehicles near Udachne and Kotlyne. Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain an advantage in UAVs on this direction, actively disrupting enemy resupply and ammunition deliveries to the front line. Russian forces are significantly exhausted after months of continuous assaults.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 126 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, 2 enemy attacks were repelled in the area of Vovchansk. The aggressor launched an airstrike in the area of Mala Vovcha.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy carried out 8 attacks near Lozova, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, and Bohuslavka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces stormed Ukrainian defenders’ positions 21 times in the areas of Nove, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna, Zarichne, Yampolivka, Novolyubivka, and Torske.
• On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 12 enemy attacks. Occupation units attempt to advance in the areas of Bilohorivka, Fedorivka, and Verkhnyokamianske.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces held off 2 enemy attacks towards Bila Hora and Chasiv Yar.
• On the Toretsk direction, the occupiers stormed Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions 17 times in the areas of Dachne, Kurdyumivka, Krymske, Druzhba, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy carried out 21 assaults. The greatest activity of Russian occupiers was in the areas of Valentynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Oleksiivka, and Andriivka. The enemy launched airstrikes on the areas of Leontovychi and Zvirove.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attempted 17 assaults near Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Burlatske, and in the direction of Vesele.
• On the Huliaypole direction, 7 combat engagements took place in the areas of Novosilka and Pryvilne. At the same time, airstrikes targeted the settlements of Voskresenka, Novoheorhiivka, Shevchenko, Novodarivka, Huliaypole, and Zaliznychne.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers advanced 6 times near Novodanylivka, Pyatykhatky, Shcherbaky, and in the direction of Stepove. Mala Tokmachka suffered an airstrike.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy launched an unsuccessful attack on the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces. Lviv suffered an airstrike.
• On the Kursk direction, the “Siversk” OTG repelled 10 enemy attacks. The enemy carried out 25 airstrikes.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Supporting operation:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a massive strike using 337 attack UAVs (data from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) on the “Diagilevo” airbase in Ryazan Oblast, as well as targets in Moscow, Oriol, Briansk, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, and Kursk Oblasts. Airspace was closed at Zhukovsky, Domodedovo, and Sheremetyevo airports. The railway was damaged, including the Domodedovo – Moscow railway connection, which was suspended.
• The likely targets of the strikes may have been:
  • Tikhomirov Research Institute of Instrument Design,
  • NTU “Dinamika”,
  • TsAGI Zhukovsky State Research Center in Zhukovsky,
  • Instrument Engineering Plant in Ramenskoye.
• The enemy’s air defense and EW units attempted to counter the airstrike over residential areas, resulting in multiple impacts on the civilian sector.
• On the night of March 8–9, a strike was carried out on the Riazan Oil Refinery.
• On the night of March 9–10, a strike was carried out on the Novokuybyshevsk Oil Refinery.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• 83rd Air Assault Brigade operates in Zhuravka, Sumy Oblast.
• 16th Separate SOF Brigade operates in Serebriansk Forest.
• 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army, 1486th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 200th Artillery Brigade of the 29th Army, and 14th Separate SOF Brigade operate near Konstyantynopil.
• 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operates in the area of Dniproenerhiya.
• 69th Separate Cover Brigade of the 35th Army operates near Huliaypole.
• 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army operates near Novodanylivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The plan for the enemy’s spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping through Lyman.
• If enemy forces of the “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping secure and expand their bridgehead in the Dvorichna area, they will be positioned to push further into Kharkiv Oblast, broadening the so-called “sanitary zone.” This could be achieved through simultaneous advances toward Velykyi Burluk from the bridgehead and from Vovchansk. Another likely course of action is an offensive against the Kupyansk defense sector of “Khortytsia” OSG, coordinated with the 1st Tank Army of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping.
• On the Lyman direction, in the near future, the command of the 25th Combined Arms Army of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to accomplish its immediate task by deploying the 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation and attacking the positions of “Khortytsia” OSG along the Kreminna–Zarichne road toward Torske.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the encirclement of Chasiv Yar from the south by advancing toward Stupochky will be a priority for the command of the 3rd Combined Arms Army and the 98th Airborne Division of the enemy. To achieve this, the enemy may redeploy additional forces from the 85th or 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 3rd Combined Arms Army to this direction from the southern sector.
• The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the “Khortytsia” OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.
• The command of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to organize a breakthrough toward Komar on the Huliaypole direction in the near future and advance into the operational rear of “Khortytsia” OSG which is engaged in heavy defensive battles on the Novopavlivka direction.

Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 11.03.25

Personnel – almost 887,620 (+1,300);

Tanks – 10,303 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 21,423 (+23);

Artillery systems – 24,346 (+75);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,313 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,103 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 40,205 (+134);

Aircraft – 370 (0);

Helicopters – 331 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 28,801 (+198);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 31,21 (+1)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• Startin in the evening of March 10, Russian forces had attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 126 Shahed-type strike UAVs and various types of decoy drones. As of 8 a.m. on March 11, the missile and 79 drones were successfully shot down. 35 enemy decoy drones were lost from radars (without negative consequences).
• During the night, the enemy once again launched a massive drone attack on Odesa. As a result, a private residential house, a toy warehouse, and a fuel reservoir caught fire. According to preliminary information, there were no casualties or injuries.
• During the night and morning of March 11, the Russian army carried out 11 strikes on Sumy Oblast, with 36 explosions recorded. One person was injured.
• In the Dnipro district of Kherson, around 11:30 AM, two teenagers were injured by a Russian drone attack, one of whom was riding a moped on the street. In the morning, Russian forces struck a market in the Dnipro district of Kherson with drones, resulting in additional civilian casualties.
• One person was killed, and four others were injured as a result of a Russian bomb strike on a residential apartment building in the city of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, on the afternoon of March 11. The injured were hospitalized.
• On March 11, 2025, Russian forces carried out a series of attacks on civilian targets in Donetsk Oblast, using FPV drones to drop explosives on civilian vehicles, as well as artillery and aerial bombs. As a result of these attacks, four people were killed, including two children. Five more civilians were injured.
• Throughout the day, Russian occupiers attacked the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with kamikaze drones. Strikes hit Nikopol and the Marhanets community. Infrastructure was damaged, but there were no casualties.
• Around 10:00 PM on March 10, Russian forces attacked the city of Balakliia in the Izium district with drones, injuring a 61-year-old man.
• According to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology from February 14 to March 4, 2025, in total, 87% of Ukrainians believe that Russia does not intend to stop at the already occupied territories:
  • 38% of respondents believe that Russia wants to capture all or most of Ukraine’s territory and destroy Ukrainian statehood and nationhood.
  • 28% believe that Russia aims to carry out the physical genocide of Ukrainians.
  • 14% believe that Russia wants to capture most of Ukraine and establish a puppet government.
  • 7% believe that Russia wants to capture the entire Donbas, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Only 4% believe that Russia aims only to retain the currently occupied territories. Just 3% chose the option that Russia merely wants to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine.
• Ahead of negotiations between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations in Saudi Arabia, Russian propaganda has once again begun spreading disinformation about an alleged Ukrainian nuclear provocation. Kremlin propagandists claim that the “Kyiv regime is preparing a provocation at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant,” according to the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

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