Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.03.25

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces fight for Nikolskiy, Lebedevka, and Zhuravka, attempt to advance in the area of Novenke, Novaya Sorochina, and Malaya Loknia, and attack Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, Russkoe Porechie, Martynovka, Cherkasskya Konopelka, Agronom, Makhnovka, Kurilovka, Novenke, and Basivka.

On the Kharkiv direction, the “Kharkiv” Operational and Tactical Group (OTG) counterattacked in the area of Lyptsi.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted offensive operations toward Novoosynove and in the area of Zahryzove and Makiivka.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance south of Yampolivka and attack Nove, Novomykhailivka, and Katerynivka.

On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an assault in the area of Verkhnyokamianske.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continue attacks on Chasiv Yar, near Hryhorivka, and close to Oleksandro-Shultyne.

On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advance within the northern part and center of Toretsk. Russian forces continue attacks near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, Krymske, Dachne, and Dyliivka.

The 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is assuming a defensive posture in Toretsk. Its battle formation is fragmented.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advance south of Zaporizhzhia and continue their offensive near Tarasivka, Nova Poltavka, Vodyane Druhe, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Udachne, Nadiivka, Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka, and Kotlyarivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack near Zeleny Hai, Tarasivka, Malynivka, and Nova Poltavka, push Russian forces away from Pishchane and Kotlyne, and attempt to retake these villages.

On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces continue their offensive in the areas of Oleksiivka, Andriivka, Ulakly, Konstyantynopil, and Rozlyv.

On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces attempt to advance north and northeast of Vesele, toward Shevchenkove, continue fighting for Pryvilne, and advance near Skudne, Dniproenerhiya, Burlatske, and Pryvilne.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack near Pryvilne and Vilne Pole.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attempt to advance toward Orikhiv, toward Shcherbaky and near Maly Shcherbaky, and conduct offensive actions in the direction of Charivne, Kamianske, Pyatykhatky, Maly Shcherbaky, and Nesteryanka.

General conclusion:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy is strengthening its grouping and concentrating combat equipment and aviation there.
• The enemy has advanced in Pishchane, near Pogrebki, Nadiia, Zolotarivka, and Zahryzove.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy near Synkivka.
• The Russian military command is concentrating troops in the northern part of Chasiv Yar in preparation for an offensive. The enemy has reduced the number of shelling attacks on Chasiv Yar, which may also indicate an accumulation of resources for a future offensive.
• Constant and successful counterattacks by Ukrainian Defense Forces are forcing the command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping to transfer additional manpower to the Toretsk direction.
• The 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army are concentrating on the Toretsk direction for an offensive in the spring-summer of 2025, although some of their units may be involved in the defense of Toretsk.
• Russian forces suffer significant losses in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian Defense Forces use available electronic warfare systems to disrupt the navigation of the enemy’s glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 109 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, a battle engagement took place near Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian occupiers launched three attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults in the areas of Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and Lozova.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 15 times and attempted to advance near Nove, Yampolivka, and Novomykhailivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, four assault actions took place near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and Oleksandro-Shultyne.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 14 attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 18 enemy attacks toward Tarasivka, Promin, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, Vodyane Druhe, and Ulakly.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled five enemy assaults in the areas of Konstyantynopil, Pryvilne, and Skudne.
• On the Orikhiv Direction, the occupiers launched two unsuccessful assaults in the areas of Nesteryanka and Novodanylivka.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces positions three times.
• On the Kursk direction, the “Siversk” OTG repelled 30 enemy attacks. The enemy carried out 19 airstrikes.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Supporting operation:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a strike on the “Ufaorgsintez” plant of the joint-stock company “Bashneft” in Bashkortostan.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army operates near Makiivka.
• The 27th Artillery Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps operates near Predtechyne.
• The 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army concentrates near Selydove, where it restores combat capability.
• The 7th Air Assault Division operates on the Orikhiv and Stepnohirsk directions.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Once the enemy sufficiently expands its bridgeheads on the Chornyi Zherebets River, the 25th Army, with forces of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will sharply intensify actions toward Torske and Yampolivka. This will mark the second stage of pushing “Khortytsia” OSG out of the bridgehead east of the Chornyi Zherebets River on the Lyman direction.
• The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the “Khortytsia” OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.
• The command of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to organize a breakthrough toward Komar on the Huliaypole direction in the near future and advance into the operational rear of “Khortytsia” OSG which is engaged in heavy defensive battles on the Novopavlivka direction.

Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 03.03.25

Personnel – almost 878,070 (+1,350);

Tanks – 10,252 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 21,190 (+16);

Artillery systems – 24,019 (+60);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,306 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,093 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 39,327 (+109);

Aircraft – 370 (0);

Helicopters – 331 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 27,655 (+61);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,065 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that over the past week, Russia launched more than 1,050 strike drones, nearly 1,300 aerial bombs, and more than 20 missiles at Ukraine, emphasizing that those who seek negotiations do not strike civilians with ballistic missiles.
• On the night of March 3, Russian forces carried out a massive attack, launching 83 Shahed strike drones and decoy UAVs. As of 08:30, the confirmed downing of 46 strike UAVs was reported. 31 decoy drones were lost from radars. Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts came under attack.
• In the evening of March 2 and at night, Russian military forces attacked Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with drones, injuring one person, damaging an industrial facility, a medical institution, and residential buildings.
• A Russian aerial bomb destroyed a house in the village of Omelnyk, Polohy District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, trapping two people under the rubble.
• Russian forces dropped an explosive device from a drone in the Dnipro District of Kherson, injuring a woman.
• In Kharkiv, as a result of a strike by a Russian drone on the evening of March 2, at least five houses were damaged.
• Thanks to the law on non-punishment of military personnel who went AWOL for the first time, more than 21,000 fighters have returned to the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, and the State Border Guard Service.
• Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has set a record-low birth rate—today, this figure stands at 0.9, said First Deputy Minister of Social Policy Daria Marchak.
• Investigators from the publication “Slidstvo.Info” discovered that Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna, who died in Russian captivity in 2024, was brutally tortured: her body bore stab wounds, she was electrocuted, and Russian colony employees hid her from inspections.
• According to a survey conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on February 4–9, 2025: The majority of Ukrainians—60%—believe that the priority for the public should be to support Ukrainian Defense Forces and resist Russian aggression. 26% believe the priority should be fighting wrongful actions of the authorities. The remaining 14% could not determine their opinion. The survey was conducted in the first half of February 2025, before the start of negotiations between U.S. and Russian representatives and, accordingly, before the escalation in Ukraine-U.S. relations.
• The losses of the Russian army in the eastern direction over the past week amounted to 6,008 personnel, with 43 occupiers taken prisoner, according to the press service of “Khortytsia” OSG.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organisation. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent