Russia’s war on Ukraine. 08.03.25

On the Kursk direction, the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps of the aggressor captured Staraya Sorochina. The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army Corps of the enemy captured Novaya Sorochina. The enemy seized Mykolaivka and Viktorovka, advanced in the area of Malaya Loknia, and moved forward in the area of Kurylivka and Guevo, southeast of Nikolaevo-Daryino. In the Kurylivka area, the enemy is trying to establish fire control over the supply routes of the Siversk Operational-Tactical Group, actively using FPV drones.

In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces advanced northwest of Basivka, in the Zhuravka area, attempting to bypass the defensive area of the “Siversk” Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) near Nikolaevo-Daryino from the south. The enemy is concentrating forces in Novenke, attempting to advance towards Basivka, attacking the H07 Sumy-Sudzha highway near Yunakivka, and has now reached a line 6 km from the H07 highway and 9 km from Yunakivka. If the enemy intends to advance southeast towards the highway from the Basivka area, it will have to establish crossings over the Loknia River.

The “Siversk” OTG holds back enemy attacks in the Zhuravka area of the Khotin community and Novenke of the Yunakivka community in Sumy Oblast. Near Zhuravka, the situation remains stable, while between Zhuravka and Novenke, the enemy is advancing through tree lines with battles. In the Guevo-Melovoi area, Ukrainian Defense Forces strike the occupiers.

On the Kharkiv direction, fighting continued in the Vovchansk area.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced on the western outskirts of Zahryzove, attempted to force the Oskil River in the Kruhlyakivka area, and attempted a landing in Senkove. Across the entire direction, they began using nets to counter Ukrainian FPV drones and deploy a significant number of fiber-optic-guided FPV drones to control the logistics routes of the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group (OSG).

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced toward Nove, as well as in the areas of Novomykhailivka, Ivanivka, Balka Zhuravka, Yampolivka, and Torske.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka.

On the Kramatorsk direction, the 98th Airborne Division advanced along the railway and Chekhov Street in the southwest of Chasiv Yar. The occupiers unsuccessfully attempted to advance near the “Avangard” Stadium in the center of Chasiv Yar.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the northern, central, and southern parts of Toretsk and attempted to move forward in Sukha Balka. Fighting continued near Toretsk, Ozaryanivka, Krymske, Dachne, Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Leonidivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the area of the Toretsk mine and near Shcherbynivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the center of Lysivka, attempted to move northeast of Shevchenkove, and continued offensive actions in the areas of Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Dachenske, Pishchane, Udachne, Nadiivka, Kotlyarivka, and Preobrazhenka. The enemy continues to experience communication and logistics problems.

Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated and control most of Kotlyne and Pishchane, secured positions on the northern outskirts of Shevchenkove, Zelene, and Novyi Trud, and counterattacked near Yelyzavetivka, Pishchane, Shevchenkove, and Kotlyne.

On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north of Andriivka and continued their offensive in the areas of Ulakly, Konstyantynopil, Oleksiivka, Bahatyr, and Rozlyv.

On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced near Skudne and continued their offensive in the areas of Dniproenerhiya, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Burlatske, Novosilka, and Shevchenkove.

Ukrainian Defense Forces periodically counterattack near Skudne and Burlatske.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast but made no advances. The enemy attacked in the areas of Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Pyatykhatky, Kamianske, and Mali Shcherbaky.

General conclusion:

• F-16 and Mirage 2000 aircraft (for the first time) were deployed to intercept aerial targets during the defense against the night missile and air strike.
• On the Kursk direction, the enemy is advancing and attempting to cut off “Siversk” OTG’s logistics. Russian forces are progressing in Sumy Oblast to completely push “Siversk” OTG out of Kursk Oblast.
• In Novenke, Sumy Oblast, occupiers are amassing forces for an offensive toward Basivka, which could cut Ukrainian logistics from Yunakivka.
• Russian forces are unlikely to conduct an offensive operation toward Sumy—at least while “Siversk” OTG maintains its positions in Kursk Oblast.
• The command of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping aims to cut off the H07 highway, disrupt “Siversk” OTG’s material-technical support in Kursk Oblast, and force a retreat under the threat of encirclement.
• Russian forces have intensified offensive operations to capture Chasiv Yar. They were aiming to take the city by March 1, 2025, and launch an offensive on Kostyantynivka.
• A comprehensive offensive operation to capture the “fortress belt” of Ukrainain Defense Forces could take Russia several years, but this assessment heavily depends on Western aid.
• Any prolonged pauses or suspension of U.S. assistance will significantly impact Ukraine’s ability to hold the enemy advance on the Kostyantynivka direction and will favor Russian offensive operations along the entire front line.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 124 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, four enemy attacks were repelled in the Vovchansk area and toward Krasne Pershe.
• On the Kupyansk direction, four enemy attacks took place. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, and towards Kupyansk.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 17 times, attempting to advance near Hrekivka, Torske, Yampolivka, and in the directions of Novo and Novomykhailivka.
• On the Siversk direction, the enemy made two assault attempts in the Bilohorivka area, which were repelled.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, nine combat clashes were recorded in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Chasiv Yar.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 26 attacks near Dyliivka, Druzhba, Dachne, and Toretsk.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, 24 enemy offensives were stopped in the areas of Yelyzavetivka, Tarasivka, Nadiivka, Promin, Lysivka, Oleksiivka, Andriivka, Ulakly, and in the direction of Nova Poltavka and Pokrovsk.
• On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled seven attacks near Konstyantynopil and Burlatske.
• On the Orikhiv Direction, four enemy attacks toward Stepove and Pyatykhatky were successfully repelled.
• On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces units repelled 26 attacks. The enemy carried out 31 airstrikes.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Supporting operation:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out UAV strikes on the “KirishiNefteOrgSintez” (KINEF) oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast, Russia.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet were spotted in Kursk Oblast (the brigade’s main forces are positioned on the Huliaypole direction). The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet and the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade are advancing near Zhuravka, Novenke, and Basivka in Sumy Oblast. Separate units of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade operate near Plekhovo. Russian forces need to gain control of approximately 35 km to encircle the Siversk Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) in Kursk Oblast.
• The 14th Separate SOF Brigade and the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army Corps operate near Konstyantynopil.
• The 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army Corps is active near Novodanylivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The plan for the enemy’s spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping through Lyman.
• In preparation for the capture of Kupyansk, the enemy needs to expand the area of access to the Oskil River. To achieve this, in the near future, it will intensify operations not only along the river but also on the flanks of its sector by introducing the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, part of the forces of the 47th Tank Division, and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army into the operation.
• Once the enemy sufficiently expands its bridgeheads on the Chornyi Zherebets River, the 25th Army, with forces of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will sharply intensify actions toward Torske and Yampolivka. This will mark the second stage of pushing “Khortytsia” OSG out of the bridgehead east of the Chornyi Zherebets River on the Lyman direction.
• The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the “Khortytsia” OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.
• The command of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to organize a breakthrough toward Komar on the Huliaypole direction in the near future and advance into the operational rear of “Khortytsia” OSG which is engaged in heavy defensive battles on the Novopavlivka direction.

Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 08.03.25

Personnel – almost 883,950 (+1,000);

Tanks – 10,268 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 21,246 (+12);

Artillery systems – 24,148 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,307 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,099 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 39,791 (+113);

Aircraft – 370 (0);

Helicopters – 331 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 28,172 (+148);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,120 (+35)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of March 8, the enemy attacked with two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, one Iskander-K cruise missile, and 145 Shahed-type attack drones, of which 79 were shot down. Another 54 drones were “locationally lost.” Of the three missiles, the air defense forces shot down one – “Iskander-K.” As a result of the enemy attack, Donetsk, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Odesa Oblasts were affected.
• On the evening of March 7, Russian forces launched another massive drone strike on Odesa, causing fires in the city. Critical infrastructure was also affected. According to preliminary reports, there were no casualties or injuries. The enemy struck an energy facility of DTEK in Odesa Oblast. This was the seventh attack on the region’s energy system in three weeks.
• Around 2:00 AM on March 8, Russian forces struck with an enemy drone on a meat processing plant in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in three deaths and seven injuries.
• On the evening of March 7, Russian forces carried out a combined strike, likely with an “Iskander-M” missile, Tornado-S MLRS, and Geran-2 drones, on the center of Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast. At least 11 people were killed, and 47 were injured, including 5 children. Eight five-story buildings, an administrative building, and 30 vehicles were damaged. Fires broke out in residential buildings and the administrative building. While emergency workers were extinguishing the fire, the occupiers carried out a second strike (likely with a “Shahed”), damaging a fire truck.
• On the night of March 8, around 02:00, debris from an enemy drone caused a large fire on the territory of a private enterprise in Zaporizhzhia, covering an area of 400 square meters.
• As a result of enemy strikes on Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, on Saturday, March 8, 8 people were injured. Russian forces dropped 5 bombs on the city. Additionally, closer to noon, the enemy carried out shelling with various types of weapons, including an attack with the “Smerch” MLRS.
• In Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, one person was killed, and two others were injured as a result of Russian shelling.
• In Antonivka, a suburb of Kherson, a 39-year-old man was severely injured in a drone attack. Later, in Kherson, a 50-year-old man was wounded as a result of explosives dropped by Russians from a drone. Also, in the Dnipro district, a 64-year-old man sustained severe injuries from a drone attack. In the suburb of Kherson, in the settlement of Nadniprianske, Russian forces dropped explosives from a drone onto a car, killing a 54-year-old man.
• Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 77 shelling attacks on the Sumy Oblast border, damaging houses and cars and destroying agricultural buildings. 138 explosions were recorded.
• More than 70,000 women serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with over 5,500 military women deployed to the front lines.

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