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CDS Daily brief (11.09.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

Mykolaiv was heavily shelled on the night of September 10-11. Nine wounded civilians were reported.

During the past day and night, the Russian military shelled the Mykolayivsky (1 dead), Bashtansky (5 wounded) and Voznesensky districts of the Mykolayiv Oblast. As a result, there are damaged and destroyed residential buildings.

During September 10, the occupiers shelled the Polohy, Zaporizhzhya, and Vasyliv districts of the Zaporizhzhya Oblast. 30 objects of civil infrastructure were damaged.

In Donetsk Oblast, on September 10, 10 civilians were killed by enemy shelling: 4 – in Pokrovsk, 3 – in Krasnohorivka, 2 – in Bakhmut, and 1 – in Raigorodok. Another 19 people were injured. During the day, the Russian military hit three Donetsk Oblast cities simultaneously. Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Nikolaevka came under enemy fire. Damaged high-rise buildings, gas stations, industrial facilities and Administrative services center. At least one person was injured, Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk Military Administration, said.

At night, the   enemy   shelled   Dnipro   (1   wounded)   and   Nikopol   (3   wounded)   cities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Administrative buildings, shops, a market, warehouses and residential buildings were damaged in Dnipro. In Nikopol, 35 high-rise and private buildings, several educational institutions, a healthcare facility, an object of industrial infrastructure, cars, gas pipelines and power lines were damaged.

During September 10, the enemy shelled Kharkiv (1 killed, 4 wounded), Kharkivskyi, Chuguyivskyi (2 wounded), Kupyanskyi (2 wounded) and Izyumskyi (1 wounded) districts of the Kharkiv Oblast.

On the evening of September 11, the Russian military hit the critical infrastructure of Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region, disrupting electricity in many eastern regions of Ukraine. As a result, many districts lost electricity and water supply, including Sumy Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporizhzhya. In addition, a number of trains from/to Kharkiv, Sumy, and Poltava were delayed.

According to local media reports, Russin missiles hit Kharkiv’s Thermal Power Plant-5, one of the largest in the country, and a major fire at Kharkiv TPP-5 was reported. It is currently being liquidated, said Oleh Synehubov, the head of Kharkiv Military Administration. At least one person died due to the shelling.

According to Ukrainian Air Force Command “East” information, 11 enemy missiles were launched, of which seven were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and 2 – over Poltava Oblast.

Ukrainian power supply company “Ukrenergo” stated that areas were switched to reserve power transmission lines. Repair work will begin as soon as the fire is extinguished.

Electricity supply in the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts were restored. Now experts are stabilizing the voltage level, the head of the Poltava Military Administration, Dmytro Lunin, reported. Also, electricity has already been restored in the suburbs of Kharkiv. Power engineers are working to restore the power system.

Operational situation

It is the 200th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy continues to concentrate its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of Donetsk Oblast, maintaining the captured parts of Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.

The enemy conducts aerial reconnaissance, constantly tries to improve the tactical position, takes measures to improve its units’ logistical support, and conducts attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops along the entire contact line.

A further threat of the enemy air and missile strikes remains on the entire territory of Ukraine. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has carried out 16 missile and 34 air strikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine. 28 Ukrainian towns and villages were affected, particularly Slavhorod, Velyka Pysarivka, Velyki Prokhody, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Maryinka, Neskuchne, Velyka Novosilka, Dnipro, and Bruskinske.

Enemy shelled Bilopollia, Lynove and Hrabovsky area of Sumy Oblast.

In response to the successful actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians are carrying out “countermeasures”. In the temporarily occupied territories of Kharkiv and Kherson regions, the Russian occupiers are strengthening the administrative and policing regime, entry and exit from settlements are prohibited, and a curfew has been introduced.

At the same time, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Sosnivka, Mayorsk, Mykolaivka Druga, Zaitseve, Vesela Dolyna, Soledar, Bakhmut, Pisky, Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka.

During the day, to support the actions of the ground groupings, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out 23 strikes. It destroyed four enemy anti-aircraft missile systems and hit four strongholds and fifteen places of the enemy’s manpower and equipment concentration. In addition, Ukrainian air defense units destroyed two aircraft (Su-25 and Su-34), one Ka-52 helicopter, two UAVs and one guided air missile.

Ukrainian missile troops and artillery continue to perform tasks of counter-battery combat, fire damage to enemy manpower and combat equipment, and disruption of the enemy’s command

and control system and logistical support. As a result, two enemy control points of unmanned aircraft, strongholds, accumulations of weapons and military equipment were hit during the day. In addition, an enemy pontoon crossing and watercraft with military equipment were also affected.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces are significantly deteriorating due to significant losses and reluctance to fight; the number of deserters in the occupation units is increasing.

The number of self-harms has increased among enemy personnel arriving in Ukraine for reinforcements. The Russian leadership is constantly looking for new sources of replenishment of reserves. Promising a high salary and a social package, they try to recruit “volunteers” among retired military personnel in the Kyrgyz Republic through social media groups.

Due to significant losses in manpower, the Russian invaders plan to carry out the so-called “mobilization” of the male population in the temporarily occupied territories. Now men are forbidden to leave their place of residence.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Lyutivka, Timofiivka, Dementiivka, Zolochiv, Sosnivka, Pytomnyk, Ruski Tyshki, Cherkaski Tyshki and Borshcheva.

Ukrainian SOF units conducted the raid and reconnaissance of Velikiy Burluk, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine stormed the town.

Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated Lyman by attacking from three directions, took control of Kupyansk, Izyum, Kamianka, Bakhtin, and Senkove, and seized the crossing over the Oskil River, which could be used to develop an offensive in the direction of Svatove and further east. Ukrainian 113th separate territorial defense brigade freed Vasylenkove and Artemivka.

Enemy units from the 3rd motorized rifle division of the 20th Combined Arms Army were left without support; the personnel is panicking. It is known about numerous losses of the enemy in this direction. During the previous day, more than 75 wounded Russian soldiers were evacuated to the village of Valuyky in the Belgorod region (Russia), and more than a hundred Russian personnel were evacuated [further] from Belgorod to Moscow.

Russian reserves (with the forces of three BTGs of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th Combined Arms Army and the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th Army Corps) tried to stop the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with an attack from the east, but they failed.

In general, in recent days, about two thousand square kilometers of Ukrainian territory have been freed from Russian occupation. The liberation of villages and towns in Kupyansk and Izyum districts continues.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the positions of Ukrainian units with barrel and rocket artillery and tank weapons in the areas of Sloviansk, Dolyna, Krasnopillya, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Dovhenke, Dmytrivka, Kryva Luka, Pyskunivka, Sydorovka, and Rozdolivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to Lysychansk from Siversk through Verkhnokamyanka.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet”, 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LNR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Vesela Dolyna, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Yakovlivka, Belohorivka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Karlivka and Krasnohorivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled enemy offensives in the areas of Sosnivka, Mayorsk, Mykolayivka Druga, Zaitseve, Vesela Dolyna, Bakhmut, Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka.

Zaporizhzhya direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Shevchenko, Vuhledar, Maryinka, Hulyaipole, Rivnopilla, Novosilky, Vilne Pole, Chervone and Malynivka.

Kherson direction
  • Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.3 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.

The operational situation is unchanged. In Kherson, the enemy occupation forces searched the residential premises of the Skhidniy [East] district, from which the Antoniv bridge can be seen. The Russian military warned local residents of Kakhovka and Kozatskyi of an open fire on them if they approached the crossings.

With the approach of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the command of the Russian occupying forces is trying to strengthen the city of Kherson by moving reserves [there]. New enemy units are recorded in the city. Arrived Russian servicemen are poorly oriented in the city.

The Russian troops are trying to restore traffic across the Kakhovka HPP bridge, the section of which is under the fire control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In Nova Kakhovka, the invaders strengthened filtering measures with the participation of FSB officers of the Russian Federation

– they check mobile devices and search for citizens who help the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The situation is similar in Energodar, Zaporizhzhya Oblast.

Kherson-Berislav bridgehead
  • Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.8 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC.

The enemy shelled the Ukrainian Defence Forces’ positions in Myrne, Stepova Dolyna, Bila Krynytsia, Sukhy Stavok, Lyubomirivka, Bezimenne and Nova Zorya.

Enemy units of the 106th airborne division of the Russian Airborne Forces lost more than 58 people killed in the previous day alone. Russian command is trying to restore the 1st Army Corps’ combat capability by transferring the personnel who survived the hostilities to other units. Thus, according to available information, the remnants of personnel from the so-called “Khan” SOF battalion were transferred to the 9th separate assault marines regiment.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and connect unrecognized Transnistria with the Russian Federation by land through the coast of the Black and Azov seas.

Along the southern coast of Crimea, there are two enemy cruise missile carriers, a frigate and a small missile ship. Up to 16 enemy Kalibr missiles are ready for a salvo. Additionally, eleven other enemy warships and vessels of the auxiliary fleet of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla are at sea, providing reconnaissance and blockade of navigation in the Azov-Black Sea waters.

All large amphibious ships are in the ports of Novorossiysk and Sevastopol for replenishment and scheduled maintenance. There are no signs of preparation for an amphibious assault on the southern coast of Ukraine.

One enemy project 636.3 submarine is on high alert in Sevastopol; three submarines are in Novorossiysk.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 9 Su-27, Su-30 and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

Attacks on Mykolaiv continue, for which the enemy launched anti-aircraft missiles of the S-300 air defense complex and Kh-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers from the airspace in the Crimea region.

A new ship name “Cherkasy” has appeared on board one of the two British minesweepers of the Sandown type, which are due to arrive in Ukraine at the end of 2023. This is in honor of the Ukrainian naval minesweeper “Cherkasy” (U-311), whose crew distinguished itself during the Crimean events of 2014.

Due to weather conditions on September 11, the grain corridor was not operational, and ships did not go to sea. About a dozen ships are standing by on the long route of Odesa – PAULINE, KAFKAMETLER, GLORY DINA, CPT.AHMAD, ANNABELLA, DERG, ATA OCEAN, INCE AKDENIZ, EIDER

S and HORUS arrived yesterday but could not enter the ports due to bad weather. Another caravan of five ships arriving from the mouth of the Danube is also approaching the Odesa formation zone. These are dry cargoes NORAH, IKARIA ANGEL, TAMREY S, ASTRA CENTAURUS and CS CIHAN.

Operational losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 11.09

Personnel – almost 52,650 people (+400);

Tanks – 2,154 (+18);

Armored combat vehicles – 4,617 (+33);

Artillery systems – 1,263 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 311 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 162 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,445 (+19); Aircraft – 242 (+3);

Helicopters – 213 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 902 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 216 (+1);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Ukrainian government plans to reduce the budget deficit in 2023 to $3 billion per month, compared to $5 billion this year. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated this at the 17th annual meeting of the Yalta European YES strategy, Interfax-Ukraine reports.

“Ukraine plans to become a member of the EU within two years,” said Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

Ukraine lost 50% of its steel production due to the war, Deputy Finance Minister of Ukraine Oleksandr Kava said. “In Mariupol, we lost half of our state’s steel-smelting capacity. Azovstal and the Ilyich Mariupol Metallurgical Plant collectively smelted half of all steel in Ukraine.”

International diplomatic aspect

After operating in “island mode” for several days, generating electricity for crucial cooling systems by and for the remaining operational reactor, the last unit of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant was shut down. Nuclear operator Energoatom explained that the decision for a cold shutdown was made due to the high risk that outside power would be cut again, requiring emergency diesel generators to keep the reactors cool and prevent a nuclear meltdown.

The French President called his Russian colleague to discuss the situation at the ZNPP. In traditionally absurdist style, Vladimir Putin “stressed the need to influence the Kyiv authorities,” a euphemism for the legitimate government of Ukraine, to stop “the shelling” of the Ukrainian nuclear power station Russia had illegally captured. In turn, Emmanuel Macron stressed the need to ensure the safety of the ZNPP and asked Russian forces to withdraw their heavy and light weapons from the site. The French President was short of demanding the de-militarization of the ZNPP but bold on recalling that “the Russian occupation was the cause of the risks weighing today on the integrity of the Zaporizhzhya plant.”

Not long after the conversation, Russian missiles attacked the Kharkiv Thermal Power Plant that caused a total blackout in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions and a partial one in the Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions.

Though “there is a risk of Kremlin using a nuke in this situation [military defeat in Ukraine],” it’s unlikely the Kremlin would go that way, believes a former commander of the US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges. However, he argues that the “US would respond to Russian use of a nuke because China, NK, Iran are watching. If we don’t respond, then they are emboldened.” There has been clear messaging to Moscow that going nuclear is entirely unacceptable and “it will have unimaginable outcomes.”

Amid the humiliating retreat of the Russian invasion forces from the Kharkiv Oblast, Sergey Lavrov stated, “Russia does not refuse negotiations with Ukraine, but the longer the process is postponed, the more difficult it will be to agree on peace.” His words contradict those of the Kremlin’s spokesperson that negotiations would only occur if the Kremlin’s conditions were met. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out any talks short of returning all illegally occupied territories, including Crimea.

“Putin’s genocidal plan to wipe Ukraine off the map has failed. He is in no position to negotiate. The war must end with his unconditional surrender,” twitted the Lithuanian Foreign Minister.

There are many reasons why the recent brilliant Ukrainian military success in places that many foreigners find hard to locate on the map is a significant development on an international scale. One of the reasons is that the Russian military defeat brings moral satisfaction to the nations who suffered Russian viciousness directly and indirectly.

The encouraging news from the battlefields gave another impetus for German politicians to demand more robust military aid for Ukraine from the Chancellor. “In this new phase of the war, Ukraine needs weapons that will enable it to liberate territories occupied by Russia and keep them permanently under its control,” said Michael Roth, the head of the foreign affairs committee and a member of Olaf Scholz’s SPD party. He believes it’s increasingly realistic “that Ukraine can win this war, and do so as a free, democratic country while preserving its territorial integrity.” Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the head of the defense committee, argued that Germany had an obligation to help preserve democracy. “Germany must immediately play its part in Ukraine’s successes and supply protected vehicles — the Marder infantry fighting vehicle and the Leopard 2 main battle tank,” she said.

“If Ukraine were dependent on Germany within the framework of a European defence policy, it would no longer exist today,” the Polish Prime Minister told Spiegel. Mateusz Morawiecki said that Berlin’s position during the first months of the war was very disappointing. Commenting on the German defence assistance, he said that “Ukraine drove the enemy back faster than the Germans were able to make decisions”. He also criticized financial aid being provided to Ukraine, which is “fighting not only for its own survival but for Europe’s freedom”, contrary to fast-track assistance to Türkiye during the refugee crisis of 2016. “Berlin’s hesitation, its inaction, seriously calls into question the value of the alliance with Germany. And we are not the only ones saying that,” summarized the head of the Polish government.

Meeting the Russian President, the top Chinese legislator urged greater cooperation on “fighting against external interference, sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction.” Beijing is not supportive of the world democracies sanctioning Russia for its illegal annexation of Crimea and the genocidal war in Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia backs China in the international arena on Uyghurs suppression and Taiwan. Moreover, Russia increased its economic and technological dependence on Beijing, mitigating the negative impact of sanctions and isolation. But the point of Taiwan is a bit complicated. Russia fully supports Chinese sovereignty over the island, but China hasn’t recognized Moscow’s illegal annexation and reiterates its support for all countries’ sovereignty and territorial integrity. So while de facto Beijing supports Moscow in its withstanding with the West, it isn’t willing to undermine its strategic interest in Taiwan, considering it a purely internal matter, contrary to the annexation.

Russia offers India to supply oil at lower prices and, in return, asks New Delhi to withdraw its support for the initiative of the G7 countries to establish ceiling prices for oil. The Indian newspaper Business Standard writes about this with reference to its sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India. The article claims that the “significant discounts” on oil from Russia will be greater than those offered by Iraq in the past few months.

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