CDS Daily brief (13.09.22) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
As of the morning of September 13, 2022, more than 1,132 Ukrainian children are victims of full- scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who have died and been wounded in the course of the Russian aggression is 383, and more than 749 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.
2,480 Ukrainian educational institutions were damaged due to bombing and shelling by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Of them, 289 were completely destroyed.
In Donetsk Oblast, on the night of 12-13 September, the Russians shelled Slovyansk. 1 civilian killed, 1 wounded. Shells hit the agricultural technical college, 2 high-rise buildings, and 6 more buildings were damaged by the explosion.
1 two-story building was damaged in Kurakhiv hromada. Avdiivka has been subjected to massive shelling at dawn for several days. No victims were reported. In Toretsk, three people were injured due to nighttime artillery shelling. At least four houses were damaged. The Russians launched an airstrike on Siversk at night. One house was destroyed.
During September 12-13, the enemy shelled the Mykolayiv and Bashtan districts of Mykolayiv Oblast. No victims were reported. A private enterprise and a warehouse of the lyceum were damaged.
On September 13, the enemy shelled the Zaporizhzhya, Polohy, and Vasyliv districts of the Zaporizhzhya Oblast. Forty-two objects of civil infrastructure were damaged.
In Kharkiv Oblast the enemy shelled Lozova. The shelling destroyed a school, Oleg Sinegubov, head of the Oblast Military Administration, said. During the past day, the enemy massively shelled Kharkiv (1 killed, 6 wounded), Kharkiv district (2 wounded), Izyumsk district (1 wounded), Chuhuyiv and Kupyansk districts (2 killed).
Russian military shelled the Nikopol district of the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast six times during the night. Shelling was carried out from “Grad” and heavy artillery. According to the head of the Oblast Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko, there were no casualties. Sixteen high-rise buildings, private houses, a stadium, outbuildings, and gas pipelines were damaged. The extent of the damage is still being determined.
In Sumy Oblast, during September 12, 18 enemy shelling from barrel artillery on the Esman community was recorded. And another 17 mortars and 6 self-propelled guns – in the Shalyginsk
community. After midnight, the Russians released 8 mines on the Esman community. In the morning, artillery shelling of the Khotyn community began.
In the liberated territories, up to two hundred war crimes committed by the invaders are recorded daily, reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The mine danger remains high in the liberated towns and villages. In total, more than seventy thousand square kilometers were mined in ten Oblasts.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the Russian occupiers are urgently evacuating their families from Crimea and Southern Ukraine. Representatives of the occupation administration of Crimea, FSB officers and commanders of some military units are secretly trying to sell their homes and urgently evacuate their relatives from the peninsula.
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that from September 6, Ukraine had liberated 300 towns and villages in the Kharkiv region. 3,800 square kilometers have been liberated. She later added that the actual number of liberated territories in the Kharkiv region is almost twice as much as she had previously announced. There will be details tomorrow.
The Russian military is preparing another attack on the Zaporizhzhia NPP. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, there may also be attacks on other nuclear power plants in Ukraine: “Unfortunately, we can already talk not only about the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The Russian aggressor is systematically and methodically shelling the entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine, and this, of course, may ultimately affect other nuclear facilities and other nuclear plants,” Ukrainian intelligence said.
It is the 202nd day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy continues to concentrate its efforts on establishing control over the territory of Donetsk Oblast, maintaining control over the temporarily captured territories and disrupting the offensive of the Ukrainian troops in certain directions.
The Russian Federation’s military-political leadership decided to intensify measures to damage the critical infrastructure of Ukraine. In this context, the enemy launched missile attacks on infrastructure facilities in Ukraine (first of all energy sector in Dnipro, Khmelnytskyi and Kharkiv) and military locations in Zaporizhzhya, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, and Donetsk, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
The enemy continued to inflict fire along the Ukrainian border in order to hinder the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces; at least 4 artillery/mortar attacks were carried out on areas near Stukalyvka, Kindrativka, Stara Huta of the Sumy Oblast and Kozacha Lopan of the Kharkiv Oblast.
The morale of the invasion forces due to significant losses and reluctance to fight is significantly deteriorating, and the number of deserters in the enemy units is increasing.
As of the first decade of September, the units of the 1st Army Corps maintained destructive dynamics, which did not allow the units to carry out combat tasks in full. Thus, concealing the real state of staffing and military equipment is widely practised in brigades and regiments; most units have not undergone combat coordination and are unable to perform combat tasks, and the commanders of the lower levels of the corps (“platoon-company” level) are demoralized and are looking for ways to be released from military ranks and further leave [back] to the Russian Federation.
The command of the 2nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps issued an order not to pay salaries to servicemen who are temporarily absent, in particular, who are undergoing [medical] treatment. Resumption of payments occurs only after the presentation of supporting documents and with the personal permission of the command.
- Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
- Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.
The enemy focused its primary efforts on ensuring the withdrawal of a part of the units from the territory of the Kharkiv Oblast to the Russian Federation and further containment of counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and their advance, in particular, towards the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. The enemy abandoned at least 148 units of military equipment in the de-occupied territories in the area of Izyum.
The Russian military focused its efforts on restraining the offensive actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, releasing additional units by retreating them from the border areas of the north of the Kharkiv region. The enemy also focuses on stabilizing the line of combat and preventing the loss of the territories captured by them in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The issue of restoring the stable command of the troops remained relevant for the enemy.
As a result of the successful actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the enemy left Kozacha Lopan, Hlyboke, Strilecha, Vesele, Ternova, and Starytsia.
As a result of fleeing the operational encirclement in the area of Izyum, the enemy units of the 4th tank division (from Naro-Fominsk) of the 1st Tank Army left behind 39 T-80 tanks and 35 BMPs; units of the 2nd motorized rifle division (from Kalininets) of the 1st Tank Army left behind 47 tanks and 27 BBMs. In addition, the enemy tried to destroy some abandoned military equipment using artillery units.
- Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
- 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.
The enemy provided support for the retreat of a grouping of Russian troops from the Izyum operational direction.
The enemy deployed eight additional checkpoints on the section of the H-21 highway between Shchastya and Starobilsk of the Luhansk Oblast to counter the infiltration of the Ukrainian sabotage reconnaissance groups into their rear.
Enemy units of the 1st Army Corps (Donetsk) mobilization reserve were withdrawn from the Kharkiv region and returned to the Donetsk region. In particular, the unit that performed tasks in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, was relocated to Yenakieve of Donetsk Oblast.
- Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
- Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet”, 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.
The enemy shelled the positions of Ukrainian troops with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Sukha Balka, Mykolaivka Druga, Zaitseve, Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Vesela Dolyna, Yakovlivka, Vyimka, Vesele, Bilohorivka, and carried out an airstrike on the areas of Vesela Dolyna, Zaitseve, Yuryivka (with a helicopter), and New York (with a pair of Mi-24s).
The enemy 3rd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps attacked in the direction of Semihirya, Zaitseve, the 6th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps – in the direction of Pokrovske and Bakhmutske; the 2634th rifle battalion of the mobilization reserve – in the direction of Pokrovske, Bakhmut. They failed to advance in all directions and retreated everywhere.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Zaitseve, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Krasnohorivka, Vodyane, Bezimenne and Novohryhorivka.
- Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
- Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.
The enemy shelled the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Novoukrainka, Vremivka, Kamianske, Mala Tokmachka, Shcherbaky, Charivne, Nesteryanka, Orikhiv, Bilohirya, Zaliznychne, Temyrivka, and Novopole.
- Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.3 km;
- Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.
The operational situation is unchanged. Throughout September 11, 2022, the enemy continued to deploy a pontoon crossing in the area of the “Daryivskyi” road bridge.
- Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.8 km;
- Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC.
The enemy continued to strengthen the grouping of troops (forces) to restrain the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. As part of this, the personnel of the 103rd rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps were transferred to the defensive positions in the area of Davydiv Breed and Vavylove.
The enemy attacked in the directions of Chkalove, Bezimenne; Zeleny Hai, and Novohryhorivka, but the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all enemy attempts to advance.
The enemy concentrated its efforts on restraining the counteroffensive actions of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the direction of Kherson and Beryslav, and organizing the logistical support of its grouping of troops considering the destroyed bridge crossings over the Dnipro and Ingulets rivers.
On September 11, 2022, the personnel of the enemy 1st rifle battalion of the 103rd rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve (RRMR) of the 1st Army Corps was removed from the checkpoints in the Kakhovka district and was ordered to move to strengthen the enemy grouping in the Davydiv Brid area. On September 12, 2022, about 220 personnel were moved in the Vavilove district (from the composition of the 2nd riffle battalion of the 103rd RRMR of the 1st Army Corps). However, 170 of 220 military personnel of the 1st rifle battalion refused to comply with the order; as a result, they were informed about their further transfer to the “penal battalion”.
Ukrainian troops cut off the Beryslav – Davydiv Brid road, and the enemy command had to transfer reinforcements for their Veliko-Alexandrov tactical group through Borozensk (up to two companies, one of which is the tank, in total, up to 18-20 units of armored vehicles, a couple of refuelers and up to 4 trucks). The enemy managed to cross Ingulets from the south of the bridgehead with some units of the 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army and direct them to the north of the bridgehead.
One enemy BTG (probably from the same brigade) was noticed in the area of Dudchany, where it was setting up positions with a front to the north and northwest (up to 32 units of armored vehicles, six 152-mm self-propelled guns 2c3 “Akatsiya”).
The enemy made 23 UAV sorties.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and connect unrecognized Transnistria with the Russian Federation by land through the coast of the Black and Azov seas.
Along the southern coast of Crimea, there are four enemy cruise missile carriers. Up to 32 enemy Kalibr missiles are ready for a salvo.
Additionally, 14 other enemy warships and vessels of the auxiliary fleet of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla are at sea, providing reconnaissance and blockade of navigation in the Azov-Black Sea waters.
Four large amphibious ships are maneuvering near the southern part of the occupied Crimea. The rest of the amphibious ships (8 units) are in the ports of Novorossiysk and Sevastopol for replenishment and scheduled maintenance. There are no signs of preparation for an amphibious assault on the southern coast of Ukraine.
Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 12 Su-27, Su-30 and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.
A caravan of seven dry cargoes left this morning from Great Odesa’s ports for the Danube’s mouth. Bulk carriers PROPUS, SUPER SAKA, SAFFET AGA, YASA TEAM, FANARIA, ferry GREIFSWALD and tanker ATA OCEAN carry 151 thousand tons of Ukrainian agricultural products. Another seven ships entered Ukrainian ports and were loaded.
In total, since the unblocking of the ports of Odesa, 129 dry cargo ships and tankers have left the berths and taken out 2 million 900 thousand tons of food.
During the day, the passage of the Kerch-Yenikal Strait in the interests of the Russian Federation was carried out by:
- to the Black Sea: 21 ships, three of them continued their movement in the direction of the Bosphorus Strait;
- to the Sea of Azov: 20 ships, in particular, three were moving from the Bosphorus.
The movement of these civilian vessels through the waters of the Sea of Azov has still been carried out with the automatic identification system’s transmitters turned off, violating the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea of 1974.
Operational losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 13.09
Personnel – almost 53,300 people (+350);
Tanks – 2,175 (+7);
Armored combat vehicles – 4,662 (+22);
Artillery systems – 1,279 (+10);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 311 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 165 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,469 (+6); Aircraft – 244 (+1);
Helicopters – 213 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 904 (+1); Intercepted cruise missiles – 233 (+17);
Boats / ships – 15 (0).
Ukraine, general news
President Zelensky’s office has developed a draft security guarantee treaty for Ukraine. This agreement is proposed to be signed by the guarantor countries, including the US, UK, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, the Baltic countries, Northern, Central and Eastern Europe. The treaty provides for “a set of non-military guarantees based on sanctions”, as well as the supply of military equipment, weapons and the development of a legislative framework that will allow the confiscation of assets to compensate for damage caused in connection with hostilities.
Ukrainian postal service “Ukrposhta” resumes delivery to de-occupied Balaklia just days after its liberation. Postal services, pensions and social payments will be delivered. It also starts delivery of the most necessary goods: medicine, food, clothing, building materials, household chemicals, children’s goods, etc. Private postal service “Nova Poshta” resumed its services in Balaklia even sooner on September 12.
International diplomatic aspect
Estonian Defence Minister visited Kyiv and donated a mobile hospital. Overall, Estonia provided defence assistance worth €250 million, and it’s championing in terms of aid to GDP share (0.83%). On the other hand, Germany scored 3rd place in financing defence aid (€3 billion) but is ten times less than Estonia’s contribution in terms of its GDP (0.082%); it is in 13th place.
Despite the growing criticism from the allies and at home, the German government still rules out the possibility of tanks and IFV delivery [to Ukraine] for several reasons. Initially, it was justified by the unwillingness to cross the Kremlin’s red line of starting the third world war. Moscow has been unhappy with anything the West supplied to Ukraine, calling it “crossing the red line” many times.
The second argument implied that Ukrainians needed too much time to acquaint themselves with the German equipment, and it was better to send them Soviet and Russian legacy systems from the CEE while replenishing them with tanks from the Bundeswehr inventories. So far, Poland and Greece haven’t received anything under the swap scheme, while Warsaw donated hundreds
of tanks. Germany didn’t allow Spain to send its Leopard tanks to Ukraine. It’s reported that Rheinmetall has already renovated 14 Marder carriers to send to Ukraine and started the works on the next 14 ones. If required, 70 more could be prepared for delivery.
The third argument was about the agreement between the allies not to send tanks. However, after expressing gratitude for Germany’s support of Ukraine, the US Embassy stated that “the decision on the type of aid ultimately lies with each country itself”. The US calls on “all allies and partners to lend as much support as possible to Ukraine in the fight for its democratic sovereignty.”
EU High Representative Josep Borrell called on European countries to double their efforts in support of Ukraine. “Who would have thought, when Putin started the war, that six months later, the Russian army would be on defence and retreating? This was made possible primarily thanks to the fearlessness and devotion of the Ukrainians to their country, and secondly, our help,” he stressed. He called the member states to better coordinate efforts of reimbursing each other for weapons promised to Ukraine.
Catching up his French colleague, Olaf Scholz called Vladimir Putin. The Chancellor urged Putin to “come to a diplomatic solution as quickly as possible, based on a ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of Russian forces and respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
In return, Olaf Scholz received a vast portion of alternative truth. Vladimir Putin “directed the attention of the Federal Chancellor to Ukraine’s flagrant violations of international humanitarian law, the continuous shelling of cities in Donbas,” leaving aside the fact that it was he who started the war eight years ago and turned it this year into devastation and human tragedy of a magnitude. Putin “described in detail the IAEA-coordinated measures to ensure the physical protection of the ZNPP” that Russia illegally seized and turned into a military site, targeting civilian objects in the [Ukrainian] city just across the river. The Russian president reiterated his disinformation about unjust shipments of Ukrainian grain and the difficulties for Russian exports. Vladimir Putin “emphasized that Russia has always been and remains a reliable supplier of energy resources and fulfils all of its contractual obligations.” At the same time, Russia cut off all gas supplies to Europe, including Germany.
Russia, relevant news
According to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands no longer accept documents from Russian citizens for issuing tourist visas.
The flow of tourists from Russia to Europe has already decreased by 95%, ATOR reports.
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