CDS Daily brief (15.09.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

In Kryvyi Rih, the local rescuers worked all night to contain the water that spilt after the Russian rocket attack on the Karachun Dam on the evening of September 14. The Russian military fired 8 “Kinzhal” and “Kalibr” missiles on the dam. The head of the city’s military administration, Oleksandr Vilkul, said that 112 private houses and yards were flooded. People were evacuated. According to Oleksandr Vilkul, two dams in the Chornohorka area had to be blown up for the water to recede faster. Several water pipes were also damaged due to the rocket attack. Almost 5,000 people were left with no running water.

Another enemy missile strike hit the city’s hydraulic facilities in Kryvyi Rih on the evening of September 15. Oleksandr Vilkul said that two missiles were recorded. An industrial enterprise in Kryvyi Rih was hit around 2 p.m., and severe damage was reported.

Around midnight on September 15,   a Russian rocker hit   a high-rise apartment   building in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast. A man was rescued from a ruined apartment. Search and rescue operation continues as more people could be under the rubble, Donetsk Oblast Military Administration reported. Over the past day, two people were killed and 13 injured in Donetsk Oblast.

As a result of today’s shelling of Kharkiv Oblast by the Russian troops, 12 people were injured, including two children. According to the head of the Oblast administration Oleh Synehubov, ten people were injured in the Kupyansk district. Among them are children aged 12 and 13. Also, one woman was wounded in the Izyum district and another one in the Kharkiv district.

Around 5:30 p.m. on September 15, the Russian forces shelled the Novooleksandrivska amalgamated community in the Zaporizhzhya district using cluster-type MLRS munitions, Oleksandr Starukh, head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration said. The shells hit a field, striking a fire. No causalities or damage were reported.

On the morning of September 15, Zaporizhzhya was again attacked by a Russian missile, secretary of the Zaporizhzhya City Council, Anatoly Kurtev, said. A hit near one of the city’s infrastructure enterprises was recorded. The building windows were blown out, and there was a power outage.

Russian rockets hit the Petrivska community, Kirovohrad Oblast, in the center of Ukraine. “The aggressor is trying to barbarically destroy infrastructure facilities,” the head of Kirovohrad Oblast Military Administration, Andriy Raikovych, said. According to his information, one rocket was shot down by air defense.

40% of Ukrainians have lost their jobs due to the war. Currently, only 23% of the country’s residents continue to work and receive full wages, and 22.5% of Ukrainians continue to work, receiving reduced wages, the personnel portal grc.ua stated in the press release. Of the

Ukrainians left without a job: 19% lost their jobs due to the termination of the company’s activities, another 10.9% of the respondents reported that they were laid off, and 11.3% lost their jobs due to relocation to another region. Ukrinform reported earlier that the number of remote work offers decreased in Ukraine. At the beginning of autumn, only 7% of job offers involved a remote format.

Sixteen local collaborators have been detained after the liberation of the Kharkiv Oblast, the Security Service of Ukraine reports. Additionally, according to the SBU, thirteen have already been charged, and eleven have been arrested. In total, SBU officers conducted an in-depth check of about 7,000 people in the liberated settlements of Kharkiv Oblast.

Occupied territories

Andrii Bilozerov, a teacher at the Bilohirsk Technical School in the occupied Crimea, who played the Ukrainian song “Bayraktar” at the school, was fired. His students reported him. The administration of the Bilohirsk Technical School is under investigation, Krym.Realii reported. Bilozerov was later arrested for 13 days, the press service of the Crimean occupation police department said.

According to the National Resistance Center of the Special Operations forces of Ukraine, in the occupied Kherson Oblast, the Russian occupation authorities opened 91 out of 457 schools on September 1, which is 19.9%. The number is so small because there are no children. Most families have left the region. 15,500 children went to school, 12.3% of the total number. 1,254 children (11.4%) went to the first grade.

Almost no men are left in the occupied Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast, due to forced mobilization [by occupation authorities], the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD reports. The conscription offices were tasked to “mobilize” 6,000 local residents. Raids to find men of military age are ongoing in the Central Market, public places, shops, shopping centers, gas stations, etc. The men from Horlivka, who were previously “mobilized” into the 9th Separate Marine Regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the Russian Army, have been out of contact since September 11. They are known to have been in temporarily captured areas of Kherson Oblast, where they refused to participate in hostilities. The last information that came from them was that the Russian commanders threatened to send all “refuseniks” to the front without weapons.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD, Russia does not recognize passports issued in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts; their bearers are not allowed to cross the border into the Russian Federation.

According to Petro Andryushchenko, advisor to Mariupol mayor, people in the city protest spontaneously against the absence of water and electricity in their homes. Andryshchenko published a video of the protest. He also reported that the head and chief energy engineer of the seized Mariupol thermal network have resigned. They don’t want to be blamed for the inability to start the heating season and face punishment.

Operational situation

It is the 204th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy continues to concentrate its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of Donetsk Oblast, maintaining control over the temporarily captured territories and disrupting the offensive of the Ukrainian troops in certain directions.

The Russian military is shelling the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the contact line. The enemy is trying to regroup its troops in separate directions and conducts aerial reconnaissance. The threat of air and missile strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine persists.

The Russian forces continue to attack civilian infrastructure facilities, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of war. The infrastructure of more than 30 towns and villages was damaged by air strikes, missile strikes, and the use of MLRS, in particular, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Vovchansk, Kostyantynivka, Lozova, Siversk, Bilohorivka, Mykolaivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Vesela Dolyna, Zaitseve, Yuryivka, New York, Pervomaiske, Kamianka, Vremivka, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Sukhy Stavok, Kostromka, Bila Krynytsia, and Myrne.

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military has launched 8 missile strikes, 19 air strikes, and fired 86 rocket-propelled grenades at military and civilian targets on the territory of Ukraine.

The enemy keeps five BTGs in the border areas of the Russian Bryansk and Kursk oblasts to demonstrate the forward presence and constrain the Ukrainian Defense Forces (combined BTGs from the 144th motorized rifle division, 3rd motorized rifle division, 15th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 423rd tank regiment of the 4th tank division, 79th motorized rifle regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division, 11th Army Corps).

The Russian military shelled the positions of the Ukrainian troops with mortars and barrel artillery in the areas of Senkivka, Bleshnya and Galaganivka (Chernihiv Oblast) and Stepne, Novovasylivka (Sumy Oblast). They used UAVs with combat load (VOG-17) in the Mkha district (Chernihiv Oblast).

To hold the temporarily captured territories, the Russian military is trying to strengthen the first line of defense in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya Oblasts. It is moving reserves from the 3rd Army Corps and the remnants of units withdrawn from the Kharkiv direction. At the same time, due to the disruption of their logistical support by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the units of the Russian Armed Forces performing tasks along the contact line lack certain types of ammunition for MLRS and artillery.

During the past 24 hours, to support the ground groupings, the Ukrainian Air Force carried out 12 strikes on the Russian manpower and equipment concentration areas. As a result, it was confirmed that six areas of Russian manpower concentration, two platoon strongholds and four positions of anti-aircraft fire were destroyed.

Air defense units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed four Russian aircraft in different directions, namely three Su-25 and one Su-24m.

Belarus continues to supply the Russian forces with ammunition. On September 11, 19 wagons with ammunition were sent from the 46th missile and ammunition storage arsenal (Bronna Gora, Brest Oblast, Belarus) to the Bryansk-Lhovsky and Gukovo railway stations (Rostov Oblast, Russia). Since the beginning of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, 18 echelons with ammunition (188 wagons with a total weight of more than 7,677 tons) have been sent from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.

The morale of the personnel of the invasion forces remains low.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of theRF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The Russian forces fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas around Baranivka, Hoptivka, Vysoka Yaruga, Neskuchne and Kupyansk.

The enemy 202nd and 204th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 2nd Army Corps suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment and are currently withdrawn to the temporarily occupied territory of Novosvitlivka, Luhansk Oblast.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian forces shelled Tetyanivka, Kryva Luka and Bilohorivka. To identify the position of the Ukrainian troops and adjust artillery fire, the Russian military used UAVs in the areas around Spirne, Shyroke, Vilne Pole, Solodka Balka, and Ocheretuvate.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet”, 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Vesele, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna, Zaitseve, Sukha Balka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.

Ukrainian Defense forces continue to successfully repulse Russian attacks, in particular, in the areas around Spirne, Soledar, Mayorsk, Zaitseve, Odradivka, Vesela Dolyna, Vodyane, and Novomykhailivka.

The destruction of a significant number of servicemen and military equipment of the 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106th airborne division of the Russian Armed Forces was confirmed. Significant losses do not allow the aforementioned unit to continue combat operations without additional measures.

The Russian aggressor led offensive operations employing “Wagner” PMC units in the direction of Klynove and Vesela Dolyna, but did not achieve success.

Zaporizhzhya direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian forces shelled the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Vilne Pole, Zelene Pole, Novopil, Velyka Novosilka, Pavlivka, Orihiv, Mala Tokmachka, and Bilohirya.

Kherson direction

• Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.3 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.

There is no change in the operational situation.

There are two Iranian-made “Mohajer-6” UAVs and a ground control station at Kirovsk Airfield (the Autonomous Republic of Crimea).

The enemy continues attempts to restore transportation links across the Dnipro River at the Kakhovka HPP (in particular, one of the locks is being filled with rubble). The “Tor” system provides air defense to the work area.

Kherson-Berislav bridgehead

• Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.8 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC.

The Russian forces shelled Bila Krynytsia, Olhyne, Lyubomirivka, Ternovi Pody, Pravdyne, Myrne and Ivanivka. They constantly conduct aerial reconnaissance by UAVs.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and connect unrecognized Transnistria with the Russian Federation by land through the coast of the Black and Azov seas.

Along the southern coast of Crimea, there are four enemy cruise missile carriers. Up to 32 enemy Kalibr missiles are ready for a salvo.

Additionally, 13 other enemy warships and vessels of the auxiliary fleet of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla are at sea, providing reconnaissance and blockade of navigation in the Azov-Black Sea waters.

Five large amphibious ships are maneuvering near the southern part of the occupied Crimea, ensuring the combat coordination of the recently created marine infantry grouping based on the 382nd separate battalion of the Russian marines (based in the city of Temryuk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia). The rest of the amphibious ships (8 units) are in the ports of Novorossiysk and Sevastopol for replenishment and scheduled maintenance. There are no signs of preparation for an amphibious assault on the southern coast of Ukraine.

All 4 submarines of project 636.3 are in the port of Novorossiysk.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 12 Su-27, Su-30 and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

On September 15, 11 vessels are scheduled to depart from the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny. They have 240,000 tons of agricultural products destined for the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe on board. Since the “grain initiative” started, 3.3 million tons of food have been exported from Ukrainian ports. A total of 145 ships with agricultural products left Ukrainian ports.

Russian officials, however, increasingly make statements that the Russian Federation may not extend the grain agreement, which expires in November 2022 (120 days). In this regard, UN Secretary-General Mr Guterres had a telephone conversation with Russian President Putin on September 14. The UN Secretary-General spoke with Putin, in particular, about the export of Ukrainian grain, expressing hope that the agreement concluded on July 22 by Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia through the mediation of the UN for 120 days will be preserved. At the same time, Guterres also wants it to apply to the export of Russian ammonia. He noted that negotiations are underway on possible ammonia exports from the Russian Federation through the Black Sea since there is a risk of a crisis in the fertilizer market.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 15.09

Personnel – almost 53,850 people (+200);

Tanks – 2,193 (+13);

Armored combat vehicles – 4,682 (+17);

Artillery systems – 1,295 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 311 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 167 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,522 (+21); Aircraft – 250 (+4);

Helicopters – 215 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 908 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 233 (0);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

According to a public opinion poll, “Trust in the state: how to preserve national unity for the sake of victory”, conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Razumkov Center, the following institutions enjoy the most trust among Ukrainians: 91% of respondents trust the Armed Forces, the State Emergency Service – 82%, the National Guard – 81%, volunteer organizations – 77%, the State Border Service – 74%, volunteer military units – 73%, the President of Ukraine – 71%.

And the following institutions enjoy the lowest trust: 55% of respondents do not trust political parties. Also, 46% of respondents do not trust the judicial system, another 46% – officials, 37% – commercial banks and 19% – the Verkhovna Rada.

The export of Ukrainian goods in January-August 2022 decreased by 31% compared to the same period of the last year and amounted to about $29 billion, Ukrinform reports with reference to the State Customs Service of Ukraine. The export of Ukrainian metals and metal products decreased by more than half (-54%) — $4.7 billion against $10.2 billion in 8 months of 2021. The second place in terms of decline (-53%) is mineral products — January-August 2022 exports amounted to $2.8 billion against $5.9 billion in the same period last year. Exports of chemical industry products decreased by 46% — from $2.4 billion to $1.3 billion.

According to a poll conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on September 13-17, no territorial concessions to Russia are acceptable to 87% of Ukrainians (this indicator has grown by 3 percentage points compared to July). Only 8% believe that to achieve peace and preserve independence, it is possible to give up some territories (and the share of such people decreased by 2 percentage points compared to July).

International diplomatic aspect

“We highly appreciate the well-balanced position of our Chinese friends in connection with the Ukrainian crisis,” Vladimir Putin told Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their visit to Uzbekistan. In the Chinese readout of the meeting, there wasn’t a specific mention of Ukraine, but Xi promised “strong support” to Russia’s “core interests.”

Meanwhile, while meeting with Russian politicians, Li Zhanshu, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP, blamed the US and their NATO allies for the military build-up

along the Russian border, which poses a severe national security threat and threat to the Russian people. “That’s why we fully understand Russia’s measures to safeguard its interests and provide our support. On the Ukrainian issue, we see how they [the US and NATO] put Russia in a stalemate, and Russia made an important decision to turn to the decisive rebuff,” said one of the top Chinese officials.

The US urged China not to back Moscow in its war against Kyiv. “The whole world should be lined up against what Mr. Putin is doing,” stated the White House national security spokesman. John Kirby said it remained to be seen how much China would back Russia’s war, however, noting that Beijing had not moved to support Putin or violated sanctions against Moscow materially.

Germany will send to Ukraine two more MARS II rocket launchers, 200 MLRS rockets, and 50 Dingo armored personnel carriers. Meanwhile, Germany’s foreign minister is putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to make up his mind on advanced tanks’ delivery.

General Eberhard Zorn believes that Putin is capable of opening a second front in Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, and the Finnish border. The most senior German military commander thinks that “even though 60 percent of the Russian army forces are tied up in Ukraine, they still have uncommitted capacity… If Putin ordered a general mobilization, he would not have personnel problems either”.

In his tweet, the former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, commented that this claim showed a “stunningly poor analysis of Russian capabilities that unfortunately reflects much of the German ‘elite’ thinking”. “Finland alone would crush Russian forces” while “Lithuania/Poland would smother Kaliningrad in a week,” twitted General Ben Hodges. “The Social Democrats don’t want to (deliver more weapons), and now they are pulling out every excuse,” pointed out Gustav Gressel, a security expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“Getting a visa to a country is not a subjective right for anyone, but the visa issuer always has discretion,” said the President of Finland. Sauli Niinisto wants to complicate issuing visas to Russian nationals, reversing the procedure favoring those who own real estate in the Nordic country.

The US imposed sanctions on more than 40 Russian persons and 30 entities related to the head of the Chechen Republic. As part of a new sanctions package, the United States is introducing a ban on the export, re-export and sale of quantum computing services to Russia from October 15, the US Department of the Treasury informed.

The EU Council has prolonged the restrictive measures targeting those responsible for undermining or threatening Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence for half a year. The measures include travel restrictions for natural persons, the freezing of assets, and a ban on making funds or other economic resources available to 1206 individuals and 108 entities.

The European Investment Bank disbursed the first tranches of the €1.59 billion package of the Ukraine Solidarity Urgent Response, supported by an EU guarantee. The first chunk of €500 million will help the Ukrainian government cover short-term financing needs and ensure urgent repairs of damaged roads, bridges, and railway infrastructure.

Russia, relevant news

The Russian court fined the five members of the municipal council of the “Smolnynskiy” district who had previously called for the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, to be charged with treason. They were charged with “discrediting” the Russian army, Meduza reported. The fines amounted to 44,000 – 47,000 rubles (USD 735-785).

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