CDS Daily brief (27.09.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

The UN mission still has not gotten access to the places where Russia keeps Ukrainian prisoners of war. At the same time, it visited the sites of the internment of Russian prisoners in Ukraine without hindrance, Matilda Bogner, head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, said.

About 800 “Azov” battalion members are currently in Russian captivity. More than 40 of them are women, including pregnant women, Olha Kravchenko, the head of the department for working with prisoners and their families of the Azov patronage service, said.

On the night of September 27, Russian troops hit the center of Mykolaiv with multiple rocket launchers, damaging several civilian objects in the city center: houses, shops, the water supply network, the head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration (OMA) Vitaly Kim, said. Before that, he said that Mykolaiv had come under massive shelling twice that night – approximately at 01:04 and 04:02. No victims were reported.

Around 3:30 p.m. on September 27, the Russian army shelled the border areas of Sumy Oblast, Operational command “North” reported. Observers recorded 20 shell explosions caused by the Russian Federation, probably with self-propelled guns, in the area of Rozhkovichi (9 explosions) and Seredyna Buda (11 explosions). No victims were reported.

On the evening of September 27, the Kharkiv mayor, Igor Terekhov, reported three airstrikes on the city, namely the Kholodnohirsky district. An infrastructure object was damaged. Head of Kharkiv OMA Sinehubov confirmed that there are power outages in Kharkiv and broken communication with the emergency call line 103.

At night, the Russian forces struck Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with almost 90 shells, Valentin Reznichenko, head of Dnipropetrovsk OMA, said. 3 communities – Nikopolska, Marganetska, and Chervonogrigorivska – came under the Russian fire. No one was hurt, but there was destruction.

Shelling of the city of Zaporizhzhya became regular almost daily. On the night of September 27, Russian troops fired 10 S-300 missiles at infrastructure facilities, Oleksandr Starukh, head of Zaporizhzhya OMA, said. Power lines were damaged, but no victims were reported.

The Russian forces fired two missiles at Odesa from fighter jets on the evening of September 27. Ukrainian air defense forces shot both down, the Operational Command “South” reported.

More than 170 km of roads in Kharkiv Oblast have already been cleared of the consequences of hostilities, deputy head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.

Occupied territories

The Ukrainian Central Election Commission (CEC) condemned the illegal pseudo-referendums held by the occupying Russian administrations in the temporarily occupied parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts on September 23-27, 2022. The CEC emphasized that they have nothing to do with democratic referenda, are illegal under the Constitution of Ukraine and international law, and therefore will not have any legal force. The CEC called on the world not to recognize their results.

According to the legally elected Mariupol city mayor Vadym Boychenko, about 10 thousand male residents of the city are under threat of being mobilized into the Russian army. He said that the evacuation from the city is growing increasingly complex. Only eight people managed to leave the city the previous day, whereas the number was 10-120 people a day in the past weeks.

The Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast is completely closed for entry and exit, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said.

The Russian occupiers, who control the situation in Enerhodar, have forbidden its residents to go to the territory controlled by Ukraine and generally do not allow them to go outside the city limits. The special control is applied to operational shift workers of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD reported.

In an attempt to encourage enlistment into the Russian Army, the head of the Crimean occupation administration Serhiy Aksyonov said that a bill granting land plots to the residents of Crimea who participated in the war against Ukraine would pass the first reading on September

28. In case a serviceman dies in the war, his family members have the right to receive land, which is a scarce and valuable commodity in Crimea

Operational situation

It is the 216th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”).

The enemy continues to concentrate its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of Donetsk Oblast, maintaining control over the captured territories, and disrupting the intensive actions of the Ukrainian troops in certain directions. It fires at the positions of the Ukrainian troops along the contact line, tries to recapture lost positions, and continuously conducts aerial reconnaissance. It inflicts strikes on civilian infrastructure and peaceful residential buildings, violating the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws, and customs of war.

The threat of Russian air and missile strikes persists throughout the entire territory of Ukraine. Over the past day, the Russian military launched 9 missile strikes and 22 air strikes and carried out more than 90 MLRS attacks. The previous day, the Russian forces used assault UAVs in the area of Bilenke in Odesa Oblast.

More than 50 Ukrainian towns and villages were affected by the Russian fire, including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Soledar, Avdiivka, Novopil, Zaporizhzhya, Marhanets, Musiivka, Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Potemkine, Osokorivka, Mykolaiv, Ochakiv, and Bilenke.

Aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces dealt 28 strikes. It has been confirmed that more than 20 Russian manpower and military equipment concentration areas and 7 positions of anti-aircraft missile systems have been hit.

Ukrainian missile forces and artillery have inflicted fire damage on 5 enemy command and control points, 12 personnel and military equipment concentration areas, 2 air defense positions, 3 ammunition depots, and over 10 other important targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The Russian military continued to fire tanks, mortars and barrel artillery in the areas around Baranivka, Udy, Hatyshche, Vovchansk, Dvorichne, Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, and Senkove. The Russian forces used UAVs around Izuym and Sosnivka to identify the position of the Ukrainian troops and adjust artillery fire.

The Russian military maintains additional units of the 2nd and 16th separate SOF brigades in the border areas of the Russian Belgorod Oblast tasked with reconnaissance and sabotage actions in the de-occupied territory of the Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian forces shelled the Ukrainian Defense Forces with tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Stariy Karavan, Ozerne, Siversk, Spirne, Rozdolivka, and Vesele. In addition, they carried out air strikes on the positions of the Ukrainian troops in the areas around Bilohorivka (with a pair of Mi-8) and Spirne (with a pair of Su -25).

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Soledar, Bakhmutske, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna, Zaitseve, Mayorsk, Yuryivka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Opytne, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.

Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Soledar, Kurdyumivka, Zaitseve, Mayorsk, Bakhmut, Kamianka, and Pervomaiske.

The Russian military conducted offensives in the direction of Striapivka, Soledar with units of the 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps; the 131st rifle battalion of the mobilization reserve was employed in Zaitseve (lower), Mayorsk direction; “Wagner” PMC attacked Zaitseve (lower), Kurdyumivka. Hostilities continue.

PMC “Wagner” attacked in Mykolaivka, Kurdyumivka directions; Vershyna, Zaitseve; Pokrovske, Bakhmut. All attacks were repulsed, and the enemy was pushed back.

The enemy 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps attacked in the direction of Pisky, Pervomaiske; the 9th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps attacked in the direction of Verkhnyotoretske, Kamianka. The Russian forces had no success and retreated.

Zaporizhzhya direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;

• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian troops with tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Zolota Nyva, Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Yehorivka, Novopil, Novosilka, and Vremivka. In addition, it carried out airstrikes on objects in Novosilki (with a pair of Mi-8s) and Pavlivka (with five Su-25 and three Ka-52).

The Russian military is moving S-300 launchers to launch positions in the Shiroky Yar area to launch missile strikes using the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles on Zaporizhzhya and populated areas of Zaporizhzhнa Oblast. At least three S-300 anti-aircraft missile launchers are concentrated on the territory of the concrete construction plant in the Sofiyivka district. In addition, three S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems were discovered in the Tokmak area.

Up to 10 pieces of enemy weapons and military equipment and more than 20 occupiers were destroyed in Melitopol. Additionally, the enemy S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, 5 pieces of military equipment were destroyed, and more than 50 occupiers were injured in Tokmak and Chernihivka areas, Zaporizhzhya Oblast.

Kherson direction

• Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.3 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.

There is no change in the operational situation. Seven enemy Ural trucks were destroyed and rendered nonoperational in Kherson.

The enemy launched missile and air strikes on Mykolaiv (two S-300 each), Ochakiv (two S-300), and Olhyne (two Mi-8s).

Kherson-Berislav bridgehead

• Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.8 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th, and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC.

The Russian military shelled the positions of the Ukrainian troops with tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Chervona Dolyna, Shyroke, Andriyivka, Bilohirka, Ternovi Pody, Lymany, and Myrne.

In the Kalininske area, the Russian military reinforced the BTG of the 205th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District with personnel of the 109th rifle battalion of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and connect unrecognized Transnistria with the Russian Federation by land through the coast of the Black and Azov seas.

Currently, there are 13 enemy warships at sea providing reconnaissance and blocking shipping in the Azov-Black Sea waters. Up to 24 Kalibr missiles on three carriers, namely one 1135.6 frigate and two Buyan-M missile corvettes, are ready for a salvo.

All 4 submarines of project 636.3 that are currently in the Black Sea are at the port of Novorossiysk.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 18 Su-27, Su-30, and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

No signs of the formation of amphibious groups for marine landings were detected. 3 amphibious ships of project 775 are in combat training to work out the combat coordination of the marine

infantry group based on the 382nd marine infantry battalion (from Temryuk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia).

The Russian forces continue to carry out intensive missile and artillery and air strikes on the objects of the civil and military infrastructure of the seaports of Ukraine.

The Russian military continues to use “Shahid-136” kamikaze drones in the maritime zone of Ukraine. On the night of September 27, Shahid-136 drones attacked Odesa and Mykolaiv again. This time, most of the drones were destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses. A spotter was detained in Odesa, who directed kamikaze drone strikes at the most important objects.

“Grain Initiative”: on September 27, 9 bulk carriers transported 345,000 tons of agricultural products to the countries of Africa, Asia, and Europe from the ports of Greater Odesa. The largest of them is the cape-size MARAN EXCELLENCE with 115,000 tons bound for Tunisia. Since August 1, 231 ships with 5.29 million tons of agricultural products have left Ukrainian ports for the countries of Asia, Europe, and Africa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 27.09

Personnel – almost 57,750 people (+550);

Tanks – 2,306 (+16);

Armored combat vehicles – 4,881 (+24);

Artillery systems – 1,378 (+9);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 331 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 175 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,730 (+19); Aircraft – 261 (+1);

Helicopters – 224 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 977 (+7); Intercepted cruise missiles – 241 (0);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

To demilitarize the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), it is necessary to organize a peacekeeping mission involving the UN and the EU, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said. The first step is the regular operation of the ZNPP without the interference of the Russian military and Rosatom workers. The next step is the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the ZNPP, Shmyhal said. The next step should be the complete demilitarization of Enerhodar and the 30-kilometer zone around the NPP. “The station must work in the energy system of Ukraine so that we can guarantee the safety of its operation,” Shmyhal stressed.

International diplomatic aspect

US Secretary of State sees no restrictions on Ukraine’s use of weapons provided by the US and others to take back its territory, whatever sham referenda Russia holds. “Ukraine has an absolute

right to defend itself throughout its territory, including taking back the territories that have been illegally seized one way or another by Russia. And the equipment, the weapons that we and many other countries are providing them have been used very effectively to do just that as we have seen in North-East Ukraine and we see as well in the South. Because there’s no change at all in the territory that is being annexed by the Russians as a matter for us or for the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians will continue to do what they need to do to get back the land that has been taken from them, and we will continue to support them in that effort,” said Antony Blinken.

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev rushed in to join the nuclear Armageddon chorus, elaborating on what NATO will or will not do if Russia commit a nuclear attack on Ukraine. “I believe that NATO would not directly interfere in the conflict even in this scenario,” Medvedev texted on Telegram. “The demagogues across the ocean and in Europe are not going to die in a nuclear apocalypse,” he summarized. Nevertheless, there has been clear messaging from the US on Russian nuclear saber-rattling.

It’s time for China to add its voice and sober Russia a bit. China will lose much of its diplomatic weight if it doesn’t convey the right message to Moscow, allowing it to cross the reddest of all lines. Besides the immediate effect of a nuclear strike that might affect any country, for radiation knows no borders, there would be outcomes of another kind. The US and their allies would have no choice (given expectations of nuclear peers) but to respond appropriately, which might lead to a spiral of further and, possibly, uncontrolled escalation. The precedent would require the United States to lower the threshold in possible withstanding China over Taiwan.

“We need to keep working together as NATO Allies and with industry to replenish our munitions stocks and provide Ukraine with the support it needs, for as long as Ukraine needs it,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said during an extraordinary meeting of the Conference of National Armaments Directors. Ukraine and France made a step forward on the issue of further supply to Ukraine of Caesar howitzers. France has already donated an unspecified number of modern artillery systems.

“I regret using the word ‘welfare tourism.’ It was an inaccurate description of a problem observed in individual cases,” said Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s opposition CDU party. Other politicians slammed him over comments he made that Germany is “now experiencing welfare tourism among these refugees” and accused many of them of “taking advantage of the system” by going back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.

Russia, relevant news

Almost 66,000 Russian citizens entered the European Union in the past week (September 19 to 25), which is a 30% increase compared to the previous week, the European border and coast guard agency Frontex said. In the last week, most of the Russian nationals entered the EU through the checkpoints on the border of Finland and Estonia, the report says.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD (GUR) reported that mobilization letters are being received by thousands of Russian “intelligentsia” representatives, private businesses

from Russia’s central regions, and giant industrial enterprises. This will change the geographic distribution of Russian KIA. Until now, the five regions with the largest number of KIA include Dagestan, Buryatia, Krasnodar Krai, Bashkortostan, and Volgograd Region. Also, according to the GUR, the number of dead soldiers from poor regions, where ethnic communities live, is much higher than from developed ones.

Bulgarian MFA issued a warning to Bulgarian citizens currently in Russia. They are advised to consider leaving the country as soon as possible, using means of transport for this purpose. Bulgarian citizens who remain in the Russian Federation are advised to exercise increased vigilance, avoid places where a large number of people gather, and at the same time pay close attention to the development of the situation in the country.

The American Microsoft corporation has limited access to updating the Windows operating system for citizens of Russia – users cannot update computers from Windows 10 to Windows 11.

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