CDS Daily brief (29.09.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of September 29, 2022, more than 1,175 Ukrainian children are victims of full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who have died and been wounded in the course of the Russian aggression is 396, and more than 779 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.

Ukraine conducted another exchange of prisoners with Russia and returned from Russian captivity four marines (two officers and two soldiers) and two civilians, informed Andriy Yermak. Four marines, among them one woman, took part in the battles for Mariupol.

Civilians – Viktoriya Andrusha was taken by Russian soldiers because her phone contained data on enemy equipment in her phone, which she transmitted to the Armed Forces. Yana Maiboroda was captured because her phone contained photos of Russian equipment in the Chornobyl zone.

The Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories urges Ukrainians not to rush back to the de-occupied territories of Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson Oblast until all life support systems are restored, and the risk to the lives of civilians remains, reported Ukrinform. At the same time, life gradually returns to the de-occupied towns and villages, including [restoring] social benefits payments, IDP aid, and pensions. The gradual examination and renewal of gas and electricity supply networks continue. In particular, gas supply was restored to 739 consumers in Balakliya and Barvinkove of the Izyum District of Kharkiv Oblast in just one day. However, restoring networks in the de-occupied Kherson region is more complex. The enemy does not stop trying to destroy the civilian infrastructure, constantly shelling populated areas and destroying already repaired ones.

According to the morning round-up of the regional military administrations, nine Oblasts of Ukraine were under Russian shelling during the past day.

Last day,   the   occupiers   shelled the   Zaporizhzhya,   Vasylivskyi,   and Pologivskyi   districts of Zaporizhzhya Oblast. 29 objects of civil infrastructure were damaged.

At night, the Russians shelled Dnipro. According to the head of the Dnepropetrovsk Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko, three civilians are known to have died, including one child. Five more people were injured, including a 12-year-old girl. As a result of the impact, several private houses were completely destroyed. Rescuers continue dismantling the rubble, looking for people. On the night of September 28-29, the Russians launched 4 missile attacks on the Dnipro. The shelling was carried out by Soviet unprecise Kh-22 anti-ship missiles.

Around 8 am, Russian forces hit the Kryvyi Rih district with prohibited cluster shells by “Hurricanes.” They targeted the industrial infrastructure in the Zelenodolsk community. There are 19 wounded civilians as a result of shelling.

In Donetsk Oblast on September 28, enemy shelling killed: 2 civilians in Toretsk, 1 – in Bakhmut, 1 – in Pivnichne, 1 – in Blagodatne, 1 – in Mykolaivka. 4 more people were injured.

On the morning of September 29, the Russian occupiers shelled Kramatorsk, resulting in 11 wounded civilians. According to the head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, Pavlo Kyrylenko, the shelling began at 9 am. The building of the former boarding school, high-rise buildings, the road, the hospital, and the Ukrtelecom were damaged. The official once again urged local residents to evacuate.

The enemy shelled Mykolaiv at night, damaging civilian objects, including a museum and an educational institution. Later, on the afternoon of September 29, Russian cluster projectiles hit the area of the public transport stop in a crowded area of the city during “rush hour,” the head of the Mykolaiv Regional Council, Hanna Zamazeyeva, reported. “This is nothing but a purposeful terrorist act to destroy the civilian population!” As of 19:20, three civilians killed and twelve wounded were reported, according to Mykolaiv mayor Oleksandr Sienkovych. There is also damage to residential buildings and electricity networks.

In Kharkiv Oblast during the past day, the Russians shelled Kupyanskyi (7 wounded), Kharkivskyi, and Bohodukhivskyi districts of the Oblast. Private houses and commercial buildings were damaged. A 26-year-old man was injured by a landmine explosion in the Izyum district.

Occupied territories

Deputy Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in Crimea, Denis Chistikov, said that the recruitment of Ukrainian citizens from the temporarily occupied Crimea [into the Russian Armed Forces] has been going on for more than eight years [since its occupation by Russia in 2014]. During this time, 15 conscription campaigns took place. More than 35,000 residents of the temporarily occupied Crimea were recruited into the armed forces of the Russian Federation, most of whom were citizens of Ukraine.

At the same time, newly illegally mobilized residents of the occupied Crimea are sent to participate in hostilities without prior training, said

the chairman of the board of the CrimeaSOS human rights organization Oleksiy Tilnenko, reports Ukrinform. According to him, the men are being transported from Sevastopol, where they spent two days after receiving the summons. During this time, they were not trained. As reported, the permanent representative of the President of Ukraine in Crimea, Tamila Tasheva, stated that in the temporarily occupied Crimea, the distribution of summons after Putin announced “partial” mobilization often took place in the form of raids. At least 1,500 summonses were distributed to representatives of the Crimean Tatar people.

According to the [Ukrainian] police of the Kherson Oblast, the Russian military and representatives of the Russian FSB kidnapped eight people in the Kherson Oblast. Men and women were taken from homes and from the streets in Kherson, Vesele and Henichesk villages and Bilozerska territorial community.

Operational situation

It is the 218th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”).

The enemy continues to focus on attempts to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast, maintain control over the captured territories, and disrupt the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ intensive actions in some directions.

The enemy is shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops along the contact line and conducts aerial reconnaissance. The Russian military continues striking civilian infrastructure and peaceful residential areas, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law and the laws and customs of war. The threat of Russian air and missile strikes persists throughout the entire territory of Ukraine.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has launched 3 missile and 8 air strikes and carried out more than 82 MLRS rounds at military and civilian targets on the territory of Ukraine. Over 28 Ukrainian towns and villages were affected by enemy strikes, including Siversk, Bilohorivka, Yuryivka, Maryinka, Kryvyi Rih, Vyshchetarasivka, Mykolaiv, and Ternovi Pody. In addition, border areas of Senkivka and Bleshnya (Chernihiv Oblast) and Seredyna Buda, Gavrylova Sloboda, Khliborob, Myropilske, and Ryasne (Sumy Oblast) were shelled.

The enemy continues to send newly mobilized low-skilled personnel to the areas of hostilities. For example, on September 26, 7 Russian tanks went to Lyman in the Donetsk Oblast, and 2 of them were involved in a road accident during the pursuit. In addition, the crews did not undergo proper fire training using standard tank weapons.

The Russian military leadership continues to take measures to replenish manpower losses, in particular, to equip its units with [Russian] convicts. According to available information, about 400 people of the specified category [from Russian prisons] arrived at the “Kadamovsky” training center in the territory of the Rostov Oblast (Russia). Their training will last until September 30.

Aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out 16 strikes, damaging three enemy strongholds, ten weapons and military equipment concentration areas, and three anti-aircraft missile systems. In addition, Ukrainian air defense units shot down 4 UAVs and 4 Kh-59 cruise missiles.

Ukrainian missile troops and artillery continue to inflict fire damage on enemy objects. During the day, they struck two enemy command and control posts, seven manpower, weapons, and

military equipment concentration areas, one repeater station, three EW stations, two ammunition depots, and one fuel warehouse.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the   invasion   forces   remain low. Dissatisfaction is growing among the Russian military regarding the possible cancellation of the allowance payments for the performance of combat missions outside Russia. The “special military operation” [which, according to the Russian legislation, was carried out outside of RF] after the pseudo-referendums became an “inland” “counter-terrorist operation.”

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Strilecha, Sosnivka, Krasne, Hrushivka, Senkove, Dvorichna and Kolodyazne.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the Ukrainian Defense Forces with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery near Novoselivka, Stary Karavan, Shchurove, Zakitne, Dibrova, Ozerne and Verkhnyokamianske.

Russian troops are conducting defensive operations and trying to prevent Ukrainian troops’ advance.

To restrain the offensive actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the enemy strengthened its grouping by transferring reserves:

• BTG of the 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps of Nothern Fleet to the Petropavlivka region (Kharkiv Oblast);
• BTG of the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army of the Central Military District to Chervonopopivka (Luhansk Oblast) from Rovenky (Belgorod Oblast, Russia)
• The 13th “BARS” detachment was transferred from Drobyshev (Luhansk Oblast) to Lyman.

In order to prevent units from being encircled in the Lyman area, the enemy plans to mine the terrain in the Derylovo-Stavky-Kolodyazi frontier; and use heavy TOS-1A “Solntsepyok” systems at the positions of Ukrainian troops in the Katerynivka and Nove areas.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Odradivka, Zaytseve, Vesela Dolyna, Toretsk, Opytne, Ivanivske, Yakovlivka, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Berdychi, Pisky, Pervomaiske and Maryinka; launched a rocket attack on the positions of Ukrainian troops in the Malynivka area (one missile, probably S-300).

Over the past day, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in Zaitseve, Mayorsk, Zalizne, Bakhmutske, Odradivka, Mykolaivka Druga, Ozeryanivka, Pervomaiske, Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka, Pavlivka, and Bezimenne areas.

Enemy units of the 6th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps attacked in the direction of Pokrovske, Bakhmutske, but were repulsed. PMC “Wagner” attacked in the directions of Mykolaivka, Kurdyumivka; Kodema, Zaitseve; and Klynove, Vesela Dolyna; the battle continues. In Mykolaivka Druga and Odradivka PMC mercenaries were defeated and retreated.

Enemy units of the 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps tried to advance in the direction of Pisky, Pervomaiske, but suffered losses and were repulsed.

Zaporizhzhya direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined

Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy did not take active actions. They carried out artillery fire near Novoukrainka, Neskuchne, Vremivka, Zaliznychne, Hulyaipole, Charivne, Chervone, Novopole and Uspenivka, and airstrikes at the positions of Ukrainian troops in the Poltavka area (with Su-25 echelon and Ka-52 pair).

The enemy tried to advance in the direction of Yehorivka and Pavlivka with the units of the 155th separate marines brigade of the RF Pacific Fleet, but the Ukrainian units forced the enemy to retreat.

On September 27, Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed three Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile complexes in the Tokmak area.

Kherson direction

• Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.3 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.

The operational situation is unchanged. On September 27, about two thousand people mobilized from Crimea were sent from Sevastopol to Kherson Oblast. In addition, the military commissars in the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea received an order regarding the priority of conscripting Crimean Tatars into the ranks of the Russian occupying forces, with their subsequent assignment to combat units performing tasks in the areas of the most intense hostilities. Just on September 26, 21 Crimean Tatars nationals were mobilized only in Saky District [of Crimea].

Kherson-Berislav bridgehead

• Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.8 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th, and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC.

Vyshchetarasivka, Nikopol, Osokorivka, Petrivka, Velyka Kostromka, Myrolyubivka, Novovoznesensk, Vysokopilya, Arkhangelsk, Ivanivka, Holgyne, Tverdomedov, Bila Krynytsia, Velyke Artakove, Bila Krynytsia, Andriivka, Bezymenne, Suhyy Stavok, Biloghirka, Novohredneve, Blahodativka, Kyselivka, Chervona Dolyna, Ternivka, Stepova Dolyna, Kobzartsi, Shyroke, Blahodatne, Zorya, Partyzanske, Lyubomyrivka, Ternovi Pody, Novohryhorivka, Myrne, Nova Zorya, Pravdyne, Lymany, Luch, Tavriyske, Oleksandrivka, and Maisky island came under enemy fire.

Russian military launched missile and air strikes on Mykolaiv, Myrolyubivka (with two Su-25 and two Mi-8) and Novovoznesensky (with two Mi-8) districts. The enemy made more than 45 UAV sorties to conduct reconnaissance, adjust fire and strike civilian infrastructure objects.

Enemy units of the 217th parachute airborne regiment of the 98th airborne division of Russian Airborne Forces attacked in the direction of Shchaslyve and Bezimenne but had no success and retreated.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and connect unrecognized Transnistria with the Russian Federation by land through the coast of the Black and Azov seas.

Due to weather conditions, there are currently 6 enemy warships on a mission in the Black Sea, conducting reconnaissance and control of navigation in the Azov-Black Sea waters. Up to 24 Kalibr missiles on three carriers, namely one 1135.6 frigate and two Buyan-M missile corvettes, are ready for a salvo.

All four project 636.3 submarines in the Black Sea are located in the port of Novorossiysk.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 10 Su-27, Su-30 and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

No signs of the formation of amphibious groups for marine landings were detected. Landing ships are located at the Novorossiysk and Sevastopol bases; 3 of them are still under repair.

Five enemy Kalibr cruise missile carriers were detected in the Mediterranean Sea.

During the day, in the interests of the Russian Federation, the passage of the Kerch-Yenikal Strait was carried out by:

• 23 vessels to the Sea of Azov, of which 8 ships were moving from the Bosphorus Strait;
• 15 vessels to the Black Sea, of which 4 ships continued their movement toward the Bosphorus Strait.

Russia continues to violate the 1974 International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) by turning off automatic identification systems (AIS) on civilian vessels in the Sea of Azov.

The Russian occupiers continue to carry out intensive missile, artillery, and air strikes on the objects of the civil and military infrastructure of the seaports of Ukraine. On September 29, the enemy used cluster munitions on Mykolaiv.

“Grain Initiative”: 3 ships left the ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdenny on September 29, carrying on board 60.4 thousand tons of agricultural products for the countries of Africa and Asia. Among them is PATRONUS, which transports 27.5 thousand tons of Ukrainian wheat for Tunisia. In almost two months of operation of the “grain corridor”, 238 ships with 5.46 million tons of agricultural products for the countries of Asia, Europe, and Africa left Ukrainian ports.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 29.09

Personnel – almost 58,580 people (+430);

Tanks – 2,325 (+13);

Armored combat vehicles – 4,909 (+20);

Artillery systems – 1,385 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 331 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 175 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,751 (+9); Aircraft – 262 (0);

Helicopters – 224 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 995 (+6); Intercepted cruise missiles – 246 (+4);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

President Zelensky is convening an urgent meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine for tomorrow – press secretary of the head of state Serhiy Nikiforov announced. The agenda and other details are promised to be announced later.

The Security Service of Ukraine, during investigative and operational actions, established the identity of the Russian general who gave the order to capture Mariupol and storm “Azovstal”. He has been charged in absentia under three articles of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.

The “I want to live” project, which informs the Russian military about the possibility of laying down their arms and saving their lives, has received more than 2,000 applications from soldiers of the Russian army or their relatives, Vitaliy Matvienko, the speaker of the project of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, announced this at a briefing of representatives of the Security and Defense Forces, Ukrinform reports. “Both servicemen of the Russian army and their relatives are calling, who want their sons or husbands to remain alive,” Matvienko said. “I want to live” is a Ukrainian state project designed to help servicemen from the Russian Federation safely surrender to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “It was created specifically for Russian servicemen who do not want to carry out Putin’s criminal orders and participate in this war,” Matvienko emphasized.

International diplomatic aspect

Last weekend, some 17,000 Russians entered Finland, an increase of 80% compared to the previous weekend. As a result, the Finnish government decided to significantly limit passenger traffic on Finland’s border with Russia, banning Russian citizens from traveling with tourist visas. That decision is because the continued arrival of Russian “tourists” in Finland endangers the country’s international relations.

Meanwhile, Russia keeps its “border closed” for at least 323 Ukrainian children taken on holiday vacation to a Black Sea resort from the previously temporarily occupied region of Kharkiv Oblast. The parents trusted their children to the organizers of a summer camp while Russia occupied their territory. However, when their town was liberated from the Russians, the camp management refused to let the children go [home]. Overall, as many as 641,000 Ukrainian children have been forcefully deported to Russia, according to OSINT data of the National Information Bureau.

It’s reported that the US will buy defense items worth $2.9 billion in South Korea and deliver them to Ukraine via the Czech Republic. The package might include munitions and MANPADS Cheron. The Pentagon clarified that the first two NASAMS haven’t been delivered to Ukraine yet but will be deployed within two months. It was also elucidated that eighteen HIMARS were contracted in the industry and will be delivered within half a year to two years and aimed at meeting Kyiv’s mid- and long-term needs. The Ukrainian Ambassador to the US said that according to an agreement, Ukraine couldn’t hit Russian territory with HIMARS. At the same time, other weapon systems provided by the US don’t have such limitations. Ukraine’s defense minister announced that unnamed countries, including some that aren’t supplying Ukraine with weapons, agreed to reverse-engineer downed Iranian operated by Russian forces for developing effective anti-UAV equipment.

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