Центр оборонних стратегій

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of October 3, 2022, more than 1,200 Ukrainian children are victims of full- scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who have died and been wounded in the course of the Russian aggression is 416, and more than 784 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.

According to the children’s search portal “Children of War” as of October 3, 2022: 239 Ukrainian children considered missing, 7,894 – deported, 6,252 – found, and 59 – returned.

2,562 educational institutions were damaged due to bombing and shelling by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Of them, 295 were completely destroyed.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, 24 medical workers have died, and another 61 have been injured, according to the information provided by the Ministry of Health.

Daryna Marchak, First Deputy Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine, stated at a briefing that the number of internally displaced persons in Ukraine has increased from 1.5 million to 4.6 million since the beginning of the war. “And these are only those citizens who applied for registration. We understand that there are many more such people in reality,” Marchak said.

More than 500 episodes of Russian war crimes against cultural heritage have been recorded in Ukraine, reported by the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy on Telegram.

Energoatom announced that Ihor Murashov, General Director of ZNPP, kidnapped by the Russian military on September 30, has been released from captivity and is in the Ukraine- controlled territory. The release took place thanks to the wide publicity and the extraordinary efforts of the Director General of the IAEA, Raphael Grossi.

In the morning, the Russians shelled Zaporizhzhia and two villages of the Zaporizhzhia district with ten rockets. One injured civilian was reported. The city’s infrastructure facilities were destroyed, including a rehabilitation center where children with special needs studied.

In Mykolayiv Oblast, during October 2-3, the enemy shelled the Mykolaiv and Bashtan districts, hitting the object of civil infrastructure and open areas.

Over the past day, Russian troops shelled 11 towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast, according to the National Police information. Law enforcement officers documented 18 violations of the laws and customs of war by the Russian military. Enemy shells killed and injured civilians. Among the victims is a child in the village of Prechystivka. 13 civilian objects were destroyed and damaged –

8 residential buildings, a temple, industrial plants, and a livestock enterprise. During the past day, police helped to evacuate 196 civilians. Since the beginning of the mandatory evacuation, more than 20,900 people, including 3,406 children and 1,017 people with disabilities, were evacuated.

Today Russian military hit the hostel in Chasiv Yar. At least one person is under the rubble. The rescue operation is underway, said Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration.

In the morning, the Russians struck the Dnipro district of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. All night, the enemy shelled Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih districts. In Nikopol, more than a dozen multi-story and private residential buildings and power lines were damaged. In the Kryvyi Rih district, private homes, a solar power plant, warehouses of agricultural enterprises, gas pipelines and electricity networks were damaged.

Russians shelled a hospital in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, said Oleg Synehubov, the head of Oblast Military Administration. An anesthesiologist was killed, and one nurse was injured. The building is almost completely destroyed from the 1st to the 4th floor.

In the village of Pisky-Radkivski (Kharkiv Oblast), liberated from the Russian forces, Ukrainian law enforcement officers discovered another torture chamber, which the Russians had set up in a cellar, the National Police of Ukraine reported on its Telegram.

In the Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts liberated from the Russian invaders, Ukraine restored the payment of pensions for October, said the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine.

Occupied territories

In the Skadovsk district of the Kherson Oblast, the Russian military kidnapped a couple for the second time for their pro-Ukrainian position. In Kakhovka, they kidnapped a husband and wife for refusing to vote in the so-called “referendum”, reports Ukrinform with reference to the police of the Kherson Oblast.

In temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, Russian [occupation athorities] blocked civilians from exiting the captured territory through Vasylivka, deputy of the Kherson Regional Council Serhii Khlan wrote. He noted that new rules were enacted on October 1, and a pass is required. But since the Russian aggressors did not give a clear explanation in advance, and even those already standing in line were not released on the weekend, the influx of people was huge. As a result, people spend the night on the road for several days.

Operational situation

It is the 222nd day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy continues to concentrate its efforts on establishing full control over the

territory of Donetsk Oblast, maintaining control over the captured territories, and disrupting the intensive actions of the Ukrainian troops.

The enemy is shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops along the contact line and conducting aerial reconnaissance. It inflicts strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and residential buildings, violating the norms of international humanitarian law and the laws and customs of war. The threat of the enemy launching air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine persists.

Over the past day, the Russian military has launched 11 missile and 10 air strikes, and carried out more than 65 MLRS shellings. Over 35 Ukrainian towns and villages were affected by enemy strikes, including Ridkodub, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Bilohorivka, Bakhmut, Netaylove, Vodyane, Maryinka, Vremivka, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Zaliznychne, and Mykolaiv. Near the state border, Ukrainske village in Chernihiv Oblast and Basivka, Pysarivka and Kyyanytsia villages of Sumy Oblast were shelled.

Ukraine’s Defense Forces aviation made seven strikes. It was confirmed that the enemy command and control post, five places of concentration of weapons and military equipment, and the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile complex were hit. In addition, Ukrainian Air defense units shot down one Ka-52 helicopter, one Su-25 attack aircraft and eight UAVs.

Ukrainian rocket troops and artillery hit two enemy command posts, fourteen areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, three warehouses with ammunition and fuel, and eight other important objects.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remains low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The enemy took measures to prevent the further de-occupation of Kharkiv Oblast, provide logistical support for its units, and mobilized troops arriving in military units of the 6th Army of the Western Military District to replenish losses.

The enemy used UAVs in the Dvorichne area to detect the position of Ukrainian troops and carried out remote mining of the terrain in the Gatyshche area.

Due to the threat of fire damage, the enemy closed the field airfield in the Valuyky area and moved part of the helicopters (at least five Mi-8s) to the site in the Rovenky area.

Up to 200 servicemen arrived in Nyzhnia Duvanka to man the units of the 21st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army of the Central Military District.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy fired tanks and artillery of various types in the areas of Novosadove, Terny, Yampil, Siversk, Verkhniokamianske and Spirne.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Fedorivka, Rozdolivka, Vesele, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Odradivka, Zaitseve, Toretsk, Mayorsk, Nelipivka, Yuryivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Karlivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Zaitseve, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Odradivka, Vyimka, Spirne, Nevelske and Pervomaiske.

Mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC units tried to advance in the direction of Kodema, Zaitseve, and units of the 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps – in the direction of Pisky, Nevelske. The enemy was stopped and pushed back in all directions.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the areas of Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Mykilske, Rivnopillia, Olhivske, Zaliznychne, and Mala Tokmachka with mortars, tanks, barrel and rocket artillery.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, it has been confirmed the damage to the enemy personnel and military equipment during previous days: the personnel concentration area, three warehouses with ammunition, more than twenty pieces of weapons and military equipment, one S-300 air defense system, and more than 250 Russsian troops’ personnel were injured.

Kherson direction
  • Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.3 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.

The enemy continued to strengthen its grouping of troops, including with mobilized personnel arriving from Crimea, to restrain the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ counteroffensive actions. In addition, the enemy restored the functioning of the crossing through the shipping lock of the Kakhovka HPP.

Units of the 90th tank division of the Central Military District were partially moved from the Belgorod region to Crimea via the Taman-Passazhyrskaya railway station (an echelon with the weapons of the 80th tank regiment, including nine support combat vehicles for the Terminator tanks). Considering the 90th tank division mission areas, it is likely that the [the 80th] regiment units will be transferred to the Kherson region in the future.

Kherson-Berislav bridgehead
  • Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG –11.8 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th, and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC.

The enemy fired at the positions of Ukrainian troops with BMPs, tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Ukrainka, Pravdyne, Oleksandrivka, Luch, Novohryhorivka, Myrne, Lyubomirivka, Pervomaiske, Shyroke, Kobzartsi, Kyselivka, Blahodatne, Andriivka, Berezneguvate, Sukhy Stavok, Biloghirka, Osokorivka, Olgyne, and Khreshchenivka. Russian military used UAVs (up to 10 sorties) to the tactical depth of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to clarify the position of Ukrainian troops and adjust artillery fire, and “Mohajer-6” UAVs to conduct aerial reconnaissance in the area of the Dnipro Bay.

The enemy retreated from Khreshchenivka and Zolota Balka and took units of the 126th separate coastal defence brigade of the 22nd Army Corps to the new defense line in Shevchenkivka – Mykhailivka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and connect unrecognized Transnistria with the Russian Federation by land through the coast of the Black and Azov seas.

On October 3, 8 enemy warships and boats are in the Black Sea conducting reconnaissance and control of navigation. Up to 32 Kalibr missiles are ready for a volley on one 1135.6 frigate, two Buyan-M missile corvettes and two submarines of project 636.3. In general, the current activity of the Russian Federation at sea is characterized by low intensity.

The enemy missile threat against Ukraine remains high.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 13 Su-27, Su-30 and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

Enemy landing ships are located at the Novorossiysk and Sevastopol bases. At the base of the 810th marines brigade, training and combat adjustment of about 2,000 mobilized personnel continue. The deadline is the end of October. After that, a group of marines can be formed from some of them and embarked on amphibious ships for training and, later, for an amphibious operation.

“Grain initiative”: today, October 3, 4 ships with 77.4 thousand tons of grain for the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe left the ports of Great Odesa. Bulk carriers FPMC B 201 and MICHALIS departed from Odesa port, and SPRING, SAFFET AGA from Chornomorsk port. In particular, bulk carrier SPRING will deliver 8 thousand tons of corn to Egypt. Since the first ship carrying Ukrainian food, taking into account today’s ships, 5.9 million tons of agricultural products have been exported. A total of 261 ships with food for the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa left Ukrainian ports.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 03.10

Personnel – almost 60,430 people (+320);

Tanks – 2,380 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 4,991 (+16);

Artillery systems – 1,405 (0);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 338 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 176 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,811 (+15); Aircraft – 265 (+1);

Helicopters – 228 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,026 (+11); Intercepted cruise missiles – 246 (0);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Corvette “Hetman Ivan Mazepa” for the Ukrainian Navy Forces was launched in Turkey. This is the first such ship in service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will be adapted to all types of anti-ship missiles.

Ukraine’s tax revenues for three quarters [of 2022] exceed last year’s indicator by more than 15%, according to Ukraine’s Tax Service. In January-September 2022, the consolidated budget received UAH 811.7 billion, which is 15.3% more than the previous year’s figure.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian cyber specialists have neutralized almost 3,500 cyber attacks on the central authorities’ electronic systems and Ukraine’s critical infrastructure facilities, according to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). SBU reported that out of the specified 3,500 cyber threats, 1,650 were detected in the “real-time” mode with the help of the Information Security Event Management System. It was established that the vast majority of Russian attacks aimed to destroy digital services or destabilize critical enterprises in the energy and transport industries.

International diplomatic aspect

The Russian Parliament has ratified accession “agreements” with Russian proxy entities that “represent” the occupied Ukrainian territories. Donetsk and Luhansk are “integrated” into Russia in territorial shape as of 2014. And regarding Kherson and Zaporizhzhia temporarily occupied territories, “We will continue to consult with the population of these regions on the borders,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained the new “borders” of the Russian Federation. Moreover, Russia defines the territories it wants to annexe illegally but which are not de facto under Russian control as “occupied” by Ukraine.

Russia’s blatant violation of norms and principles of international law, war of aggression, numerous war crimes, and illegal land grabs raise the status quo ante issue not just about Ukraine. After Russia’s defeat, it should release not only illegally occupied territories of Ukraine (Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions) but also of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), Moldova (Transnistria) and Japan (the Northern territories). Also, it makes sense either to solve the Königsberg issue or make it a non- nuclear and demilitarized zone.

The EU Military Assistance Mission (EUMAM) is reported to be announced at the next official meeting of the EU Council on October 17. The EUMAM aims to train up to 15,000 Ukrainian military personnel, including some 3,000 soldiers that would undergo special training, such as tactical combat training for commanders or courses for engineers.

“A gift for Putin” [sracastic naming], a Czech non-governmental initiative, has collected €1.2 million within a month to procure a modernized T-72 tank to be donated to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. France is about to hand over 20 modern Bastion APCs to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Denmark contributes military aid worth €145 million. Together with Germany and Norway, they will procure 16 Zuzana II Howitzers for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Ukraine and the EU signed a memorandum on microfinancing of up to €5 billion. Bloomberg reports that the US plans to provide $1.5 billion in financial assistance monthly and calls on the Europeans to follow suit. The Ukrainian President has been calling international partners for a $5 billion monthly aid. Financial assistance is crucial for Ukraine’s survival and ability to fight back against Russia.

Elon Musk, who provided Ukraine with StarLink equipment, launched a Twitter opinion poll on the Ukraine-Russia Peace accord. He put forward four points: “1. Redo elections of annexed

regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is the will of the people. 2. Crimea is formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake). 3. Water supply to Crimea assured. 4. Ukraine remains neutral.” 61.1 percent rejected the idea, while 38.9 percent supported it, with more than 813K votes cast.

Though it’s a private initiative with no legal or political consequences, it’s ill-formulated and might be damaging.

There was no referendum in 2014 but a combined special intelligence and military operation. The sham vote violated Ukrainian and Russian constitutions and related legislations, the UN Charter, OSCE Helsinki Final Act, and several bilateral agreements, including the so-called Budapest MOU that guaranteed Russia’s non-interference into Ukrainian domestic affairs, let alone military aggression, annexation, and nuclear threats. Russia has violated international law by annexing Crimea, forcing Ukrainian citizens out, and bringing Russian ones in. For eight years, Crimeans have been heavily brainwashed.

According to international law and Ukrainian legislation, only three indigenous peoples (Crimean Tatars, Crimean Karaites, and Krymchaks) have the right to self-determination. Therefore “re-do elections” would secure impunity and injustice and greenlight further annexations across the globe.

The argument about Crimea being “a part of Russia since 1783” is ridiculous. Crimea was a part of Ukraine for twice longer (60 years, 1954-2014) than the Russian Federation (29 years, 1922- 1941, 1944-1954). From 1941-1944 the Peninsula was occupied by Nazi Germany. When Crimea was a part of the Russian Empire (1796 till 1917), the ethnic composition of the Peninsula was as such: Ukrainians (42.2%), Russians (27.9%), Crimean Tatars (13%), Germans (5.4%), and Greeks (1.3%). During the imperial and then the Soviet times, there were numerous deportations of various ethnic groups from Crimea and transfers of ethnic Russians to Crimea. More than Russians or Ukrainians, Crimea was owned by Crimean Tatars (1441-1783) and Greeks who settled there in 5 BC. Both ethnic groups (Crimean Tatars and Greeks) were brutally suppressed by Russian neocolonial and genocidal policies in Crimea and in the Russia-occupied Donetsk Oblast. Mariupol, Ukrainian Greeks’ unofficial capital, was leveled, and it’s impossible to estimate the human cost of the seizure.

Ukraine was a non-block country in 2014, and this status didn’t save it from the illegal annexation of Crimea and Russia’s military aggression in Donbas. In fact, Russia tried to annex Crimea back in 1993-1994 when Ukraine was not even thinking of becoming a NATO member.

Eighty-three percent of Ukrainians are for membership in NATO, according to the most recent poll by the Rating group. So, after the illegal annexations, genocidal war, and destruction Russia brought to its neighbor, Ukraine can’t be secure and at peace without being a member of NATO and the EU.
It is in the interest of the whole world to have Crimea returned to Ukraine. Annexation of Crimea allowed to threaten all Black Sea nations and to deny Freedom of Navigation, causing starvation across the globe. Moreover, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is within the ability to hit any territory of Europe, including the British Isles, with Kalibr missiles, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, off the coast of Crimea.

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