Центр оборонних стратегій

CDS Daily brief (04.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

Download in PDF

Humanitarian aspect:

The Ukrainian Defense Forces have liberated a total of 1,534 Ukrainian towns and villages from the Russian occupiers, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said. Tymoshenko noted that more than 500 of them have been cleared of mines; the work of the National Police has been restored in 1,200, and local self-government bodies have started working in 1,508 liberated towns and villages. In the territories liberated from the Russian army, 933 medical institutions have resumed work, 981 educational institutions have been opened, residents receive social protection services in more than a thousand places, and 922 towns and villages have been provided with financial services.

As of the morning of October 4, 2022, more than 1,204 Ukrainian children are victims of full- scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who have died and been wounded in the course of the Russian aggression is 418, and more than 786 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.

More than 10,500 schools are ready for the heating season, almost 88% of the total number of secondary education institutions, Education Minister Serhiy Shkarlet said.

Two missiles hit the city of Kharkiv on the night of October 4, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Oleh Synehubov said. Critical infrastructure was damaged in the Nobobavarskiy district, and a 46-year-old woman was killed.

At night, the Russian forces attacked the Nikopol and Synelnykove districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; four people were injured. The city of Nikopol got the most damage; 30 residential buildings were hit. The town was left without water – the power grids of the water supply pumping station were damaged. More than 7,000 families remained without electricity, Valentyn Reznichenko, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, said.

At night, Russian troops launched a rocket attack on Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast; two people are known to have been injured, Oleksandr Honcharenko, the head of the Kramatorsk city military administration, said. School and private houses were damaged.

On October 4, at approximately 6:30 a.m., the Russian Armed Forces launched an S 300 rocket attack on the recently liberated Shevchenkove village of Kupyansk district. The houses of civilians were damaged, Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported.

In the town of Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast, recently liberated from Russian troops, a police department that the [Russian] invaders turned into a torture chamber for local residents was found, the National Police reported.

Today, around 11 a.m., an attack was made on the Voznesenskyi district of Mykolayiv Oblast, Voznesensk city council reported. There are no casualties among the civilian population.

Occupied territories

According to the legally elected Ukrainian Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov, an absolute disaster is happening at the Russian checkpoint in the village of Vasylivka that people have to pass to evacuate from the occupied territory of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. According to Fedorov, yesterday morning, 4,000 residents were waiting in line to cross to the territory controlled by Ukraine, and today the number grew to 4,500. An elderly man died in line yesterday.

The Russian occupiers are building a “state border” in Vasylivka, the only village through which it is possible to leave the temporarily captured territories for Zaporizhzhia, Oleksandr Starukh, the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, said. The Russian forces impose their own rules. For example, they do not allow men of conscription age to leave. He added that over the past day, only 43 people could leave the temporarily captured territories through Vasylivka, while this figure reached 1,500-2,000 people per day last week.

Activists of the “Yellow Ribbon” resistance movement posted 2,000 pro-Ukrainian leaflets on the streets of Enerhodar captured by Russian troops, the Mayor of Enerhodar, Dmytro Orlov, reported. The leaflets say that the Russian sham referenda have no legal consequences and call on the local residents not to watch the Russian news.

In the Skadovsk district, Kherson Oblast, the Russian military arrived at a private house, beat the husband for his pro-Ukrainian position, took the wife in an unknown direction and then blew up the house. It’s not known where the woman currently is, Kherson Oblast police reported.

Operational situation

It is the 223rd day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy is trying to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories and focuses its efforts on disrupting the intensive actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. It conducts aerial reconnaissance and inflicts strikes on civilian infrastructure and residential buildings, violating the norms of international humanitarian law and the laws and customs of war. The threat of Russian air and missile strikes persists throughout the entire territory of Ukraine.

Over the past day, the Russian military launched 3 missile strikes and 12 air strikes and carried out more than 100 MLRS attacks. More than 20 Ukrainian towns and villages were affected by the Russian strikes. In particular, Bilohorivka, Zaitseve, Maryinka and Bakhmut.

The Russian Armed Forces’ military leadership decided to relocate the Rosgvardiya units based in the administrative boundaries of the Siberian Military District and the Russian contingent in Syria to the area of hostilities [in Ukraine].

During the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 22 strikes, hitting 3 enemy strongholds, 16 areas of weapons and military equipment concentration, and 3 Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. Ukrainian air defense units destroyed two Russian UAVs.

Over the past day, Ukrainian missile forces and artillery hit 2 enemy command posts, 12 areas of manpower, weapons and military equipment concentration, 2 ammunition depots, one anti- aircraft missile complex, and 5 other important enemy targets.

Major-General Ignatenko was appointed commander of the 29th Army (Chita) (His previous position was head of the Far Eastern Higher Military Command School). The position had been vacant since after the death in March of the prior commander of the 29th Combined arms army, Major General Kolesnikov.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

The units of the newly formed 3rd Army Corps that was recently moved to the territory of Ukraine are not able to effectively perform their duties. The main reasons why the servicemen of the aforementioned Russian troop formation are demoralized are obsolete and unusable weapons and military equipment, personnel arbitrarily abandoning their positions and refusing to perform combat tasks, consumption of alcoholic beverages, and systematic violations of military discipline.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired tanks, mortars and barrel artillery at the positions of the Ukrainian troops in the areas of Strileche, Komisarove, Bily Kolodyaz, Varvarivka, Vovchansk, Vilkhuvatka, Khatne, Hryhorivka, Dvorichna, Zapadne. To identify the position of the Ukrainian troops, the Russian forces used UAVs in the area of Siversk, Dvorichna, Novostepanivka, Pervomaiske, Izyumske, Pishchane, Fedorivka, and Buhaivka.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian forces shelled the Ukrainian Defense Forces with tanks and various kinds of artillery in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Serebryanka. They mined the possible advance routes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces units in the Stara Krasnyanka and Pshenychne areas.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Soledar, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Zaitseve, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Maryinka, Novoukrainka, Novomykhailivka, Sukha Balka. It carried out airstrikes on the positions of the Ukrainian troops in the area of Bilohorivka (with two pairs of Su-25) and Spirne (with pair of Ka-52).

Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Vyimka, Mayorsk, Spirne, Ozeryanivka, Bakhmutske, and Kamianka.

The Russian military unsuccessfully led offensive actions employing the following units:

  • 131st rifle battalion of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps in the direction of Zaitseve, Mayorsk,
  • 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps – Mykolaivka, Vyimka; Mykolaivka, Spirne;
  • PMC “Wagner” – Mykolaivka Druga, Ozaryanivka;
  • 6th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps – Pokrovske, Bakhmutske,
  • 9th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps – Novoselivka Druga, Vesele; Verhnyotoretske, Kamianka;
  • 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps – Pisky, Pervomaiske;
  • 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District – Solodke, Novomykhailivka.

The battle between the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC continues in the direction of Kodema, Zaitseve.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled more than 20 towns and villages along the contact line with mortars, tanks, barrel and rocket artillery, including Novoyakovlivka, Hulyaipilske, Novosilka, Novopil, Zaliznychne and Bohoyavlenka.

Kherson direction
  • Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.3 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.

There is no change in the operational situation. The Russian military replenished the stockpile of missiles for the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. On October 2, 16 transport-launch containers with anti-aircraft guided missiles were delivered to the port of Skadovsk.

According to preliminary information, the “Mohajer” UAV flight control center is deployed in the Sakharna Holovka area. At least 25 “Shahed-136” UAVs are stored at Dzhankoy airfield in the occupied Crimea.

Kherson-Berislav bridgehead
  • Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG –11.8 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th, and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC.

The Russian forces shelled the positions of the Ukrainian troops with APC weapons, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas around Oleksandrivka, Luch, Pravdyne, Myrne, Novohryhorivka, Lyubomirivka, Ternovi Pody, Blahodatne, Kvitneve, Kyselivka, Blahodativka, Berezneguvate, Yakovlivka, Sukhy Stavok, Bilohirka, Andriiivka, Bezimenne, Pervomaiske, Dolhove, Olhyne, Arkhangelske, Ivanivka, Vysokopillya. To identify the position of the Ukrainian troops and adjust artillery fire, UAVs were used (27 sorties) for the tactical depth of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the area of Ternovi Pody. Enemy units of the 33rd motorized rifle regiment of the 20th motorized rifle division conduct offensive operations in the direction of Blahodatne, Ternovi Pody again.

During hostilities, the Russian forces left Lyubymivka, Shevchenkivka, Bilyaivka, and Mykhailivka. Russian units are blocked in the areas of Novooleksandrivka and Havrylivka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and connect unrecognized Transnistria with the Russian Federation by land through the coast of the Black and Azov seas.

On October 4, 8 enemy warships and boats were on a mission in the Black Sea, conducting reconnaissance and controlling navigations in the Azov-Black Sea waters. Up to 32 Kalibr missiles are ready for a salvo on five carriers: three surface and two underwater (one frigate 1135.6, two “Buyan-M” missile corvettes and two submarines of project 636.3). In general, the current activity of the maritime groups of the Russian Federation is characterized by low intensity. The rocket threat to [the territory of] Ukraine remains high.

Two submarines have been maneuvering quite suspiciously near Cape Fiolent (Sevastopol, Crimea) for two days.

In the Sea of Azov, the Russian military continues to control sea communications, keeping up to 6 ships and boats on combat duty.

During the day, the following number of ships made passage through the Kerch-Yenikal Strait in the interests of the Russian Federation, namely 34 vessels to the Sea of Azov, including 14 vessels that moved from the Bosphorus Strait; and 34 vessels to the Black Sea, including 13 vessels that continued their movement in the direction of the Bosphorus Strait. Russia continues to violate the 1974 International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) by turning off automatic identification systems (AIS) on civilian vessels in the Sea of Azov.

The Russian military continues shelling Ukrainian ports and coastal areas. Today, October 4, the enemy shelled Mykolaiv, Ochakiv and Odesa. Another kamikaze drone, “Shahid 136”, was shot down over Odesa.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 12 Su-27, Su-30, and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

“Grain Initiative”: The total volume of agricultural products exported from the ports of Larger Odesa since the opening of the grain corridor has exceeded six million tons. Eight more ships with food left the Odesa Oblast ports to the Danube’s mouth on October 4. The first vessel is PRETTY LADY, followed by SSI RELIANCE, ARGO I, SAM, BARON, CHRYSSA K, NANDI and BC CALLISTO. In

total, since August 1, 269 merchant ships have left the ports of Larger Odesa. Five bulk carriers are waiting in line to enter the ports, and four more are on their way to the Odessa coast.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 04.10

Personnel – almost 60, 800 people (+370);

Tanks 2,424 (+44);

Armored combat vehicles – 4,018 (+27);

Artillery systems – 1,407 (+2);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 340 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 177 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,823 (+12); Aircraft – 228 (0);

Helicopters – 226 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,028 (+2); Intercepted cruise missiles – 246 (0);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy issued a decree stating that the decrees of the Russian President Putin annexing Crimea, the so-called DPR and LPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts have no legal power.

President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree enacting the decision of the National Security and Defense Council adopted on September 30, which lists Ukraine’s actions in response to Russia’s attempt to annex the territories of Ukraine. The first point of the decree says that it’s impossible to hold negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In his October 3 evening address, President Zelenskiy said that the Russian propagandists intimidate people in the occupied areas by saying that Ukraine will consider almost everyone who remains in the occupied territory as a “collaborator”. Zelenskiy noted that this is an absolute delusion. “If a person did not serve the occupiers and did not betray Ukraine, then there is no reason to consider such a person a collaborator… If a teacher remained a Ukrainian teacher and did not lie to the children about who was the enemy… Or if a person remained a Ukrainian employee of the Ukrainian communal service and helped to preserve the energy supply for people, then such a person cannot be blamed for anything”, Zelenskiy stressed.

JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” national railroad company transported 3.4 million tons of grain and milling products in September 2022. This is a 63.2% increase over the indicator of August this year, the press service of Ukrzaliznytsia informed Ukrinform. The most significant amount of grain was transported for export, namely more than 3 million tons (+91.5% compared to August), and almost 322,000 tons were transported domestically.

International diplomatic aspect

President Joseph Biden, joined by Vice President Kamala Harris, spoke with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to “underscore that the United States will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Ukrainian territory.” In addition to last week’s announcement of a $1.1 billion mid- to long-term arms package (that includes 18 HIMARS), POTUS pledged another one worth $625 million. The latest package includes four HIMARS that will bring the total number operated by the UAF to 20, as well as accompanying munitions, various types of counter-drone systems, and radar systems.

“It is of the utmost urgency to provide Ukraine with support in the form of supplies of heavy military equipment, anti-rocket, and anti-aircraft defense systems, in addition to tanks and armored vehicles,” said the Polish Foreign Minister during a joint press conference with his German colleague. Zbigniew Rau stated: “We also agree that the war must end with Ukraine regaining full territorial integrity, the perpetrators of war crimes being held accountable, and with Russia paying out reparations and war compensation.”

While North Korean “rocket man” has fired a ballistic missile over Japan for the first time in five years, his Russian colleague seems to have decided to test his weapon. The Belgorod nuclear submarine has left its home base in the Arctic Circle and might be on its way to the Kara Sea to test a Poseidon nuclear torpedo. For years the Russian media have been threatening the US with washing away an entire coast with a two megatons nuclear warhead aimed at causing an irradiated tsunami up to 1,600ft high. The news is highly likely a PSYOP, yet if true, it would both show the Russian weakness and inability to project its power in the region, not to mention the

globe, and require a robust response from the US. It would also require the engagement of other nuclear states, most of all China and India, to condemn the test and engage in clear messaging to the Kremlin that it would face dire consequences in case of deployment of the ultimate weapon on a battlefield.

While Russians struggle to work out frontiers of the illegally annexed Ukrainian regions, “the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on its basic principles, stresses the need for fully observing countries’ territorial integrity as a fundamental rule of international law and for respecting principles and goals of the UN Charter.” Tehran did not recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea either. Even Serbia refused to recognize their “brotherly” nation’s land grabs. At the same time, Ukraine [earlier] had not recognized the independence of Kosovo, fearing Russia’s annexation [of Ukrainian lands]. It is a good question whether Kyiv will recognize it after regaining sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula. The EU membership would require it, but it is in the distant future.

Damascus’ regime is highly likely to support Russia, whatever it does. Lukashenko might join the company if it would bring his regime some financial benefits.

Japan’s Vice Foreign Minister summoned the Russian Ambassador to inform him that his consul had declared a persona non grata and must leave the country without delay. Though the formal reason was a reciprocal move due to Russia’s detention of a Japanese consul in Vladivostok, which is a blatant violation of the Vienna convention on consular relations of 1963, it doesn’t rule out that the employee of the Russian consulate was a spy. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Russia was summoned to the Foreign Ministry. Russians are not happy that the Ukrainian Ambassador in Astana carries on his official duties despite assurances from the Kazakh side, as Russians claim, to expel him. The situation was heated because of Petro Vrublevskiy’s comment that Russia’s aggressive war requires Ukrainians to kill as many invaders as possible now, so our children would need to kill fewer Russian invaders in the future.

Russia, relevant news

More than 200,000 Russian citizens have entered Kazakhstan since September 21, and 147,000 have left, the Kazakhstani interior minister Marat Akhmetzhnov said.

Due to sanctions, the Finnish Foreign Ministry refused to issue an export license to export the icebreaker ordered by Norilsk Nickel to Russia. The vessel’s construction was to start at the shipyard in Hietalahti in 2023, and the delivery to the customer was planned for the winter season of 2025.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 and are involved in security studies, defence policy research and advocacy. Currently all our activity is focused on stopping the ongoing war.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email to cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are independent, non-government, non-partisan and non-profit organisation. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent