CDS Daily brief (05.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

Prosecutor General’s Office has already identified more than 600 suspects in the crime of aggression, Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said. At the moment, there are about 37,000 registered cases of war crimes; the number of killed among Ukraine’s civilian population is 7,500, including 418 children, Kostin said.

With the beginning of the war, 5 million out of 7.7 million internally displaced persons lost their jobs. Almost 3 million working-age citizens left Ukraine, Deputy Minister of Economy Tetyana Berezhna reported. According to the population monitoring system based on the data of mobile operators, 42% of those outside Ukraine are working, 17% are unemployed, 8% are students, 23% are pensioners, and for 10% their status could not be determined.

The Education Ombudsman Service prepared advice for teachers, school principals, parents, and children on what to do in case of a nuclear strike while children are at school. Instructions for parents and children were published on the portal of the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security dovidka.info.

The Russian troops attacked the town of Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast, located about 80 km to the south of Kyiv, with 6 kamikaze drones on the night of October 5. As a result, several infrastructure objects were set on fire. One person was injured, both head of the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration Oleksiy Kuleba and the mayor of Bila Tserkva Hennadiy Dykiy reported.

On the night of October 5, the Russian forces shelled Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with “Grad” MLRS and heavy artillery, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration (OMA) Valentyn Reznichenko said. Chervonohryhorivka, Nikopol and Marganets communities came under fire. Russian shells damaged two lyceums, a church, a shop, a gas pipeline, power lines, and other civilian targets. Another shelling was recorded on the evening of October 5. No victims were reported.

In the morning of October 5, Russia launched “Iskander” missile attacks on infrastructure facilities on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia and the city center, one of the missiles was shot down by air defense, Oleksandr Starukh, head of Zaporizhzhia OMA, said.

In the liberated Sviatohirsk, Donetsk Oblast, the bodies of four civilians were discovered during the exhumation, the head of Donetsk OMA, Pavlo Kirylenko, said. He also reported that on October 4, Russian forces killed one civilian at Mayorsk station in Zaitseve, and 6 people were injured.

At night and in the morning of October 5, the occupiers fired rockets at Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, damaging a private house. Fighting continues in the area of the villages of Pisky, Vodyane, and Pervomaiske of the Ocheretyn community. The Russian forces also shelled the Karliv

Reservoir with “Grad” MLRS; at around 02:30, they hit the reservoir’s dam. They also fired intensively at the Toretsk community, where an apartment building got damaged. Over the past day, 5 civilians were killed and 6 wounded in Donetsk Oblast, the OMA administration reported in the morning roundup.

More than 50 graves of civilians were found in the recently liberated Lyman in Donetsk Oblast. However, not all buried are identified; some tombstones have just numbers, Hromadkse TV reported.

Residents of Lyman received their first pensions, and one-time payments, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.

Occupied territories

President Putin signed the laws adopted by the Russian State Duma, formally annexing the temporarily occupied territories of four Ukrainian Oblasts. At the same time, his spokesman Dmitriy Peskov failed to answer the question on what were the borders of the annexed territories. The move, in effect, demonstrates that Russian claims about separatism in the Donbas that served as the pretext for the Russian interference and the Minsk deal were false pretenses. Annexing the territory of another country is hardly a solution to its “separatism problem”.

After Putin signed the illegal decree appropriating the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia NPP to the Russian Federation, Rosenergoatom reported that Oleg Romanenko, the former chief engineer of the Balakovo NPP, was appointed to manage the Russian company in charge of the ZNPP operation.

The Russian Investigative Committee began to create investigative agencies in the territories annexed to Russia. In addition, the Russian Federal Tax Service opened its branches in the occupied Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia.

According to the head of Luhansk OMA, Serhiy Haidai, training centers located in Luhansk Oblast provide training to [Russian] private military companies personnel recruited in places of liberty deprivation [detention colonies and prisons]. Yet, Oblast residents are sent to the frontline without proper training.

Operational situation

It is the 224th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy is trying to maintain control over the captured territories and disrupt the intensive actions of the Ukrainian troops in certain directions. The enemy continues offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions and regroups its troops in specific directions.

The Russian military fired at the positions of Ukrainian troops along the contact line, conducted distant mining of some parts of the territory, and conducted aerial reconnaissance. It inflicts strikes on civilian infrastructure, violating the norms of international humanitarian law, and the laws and customs of war. The threat of Russian air and missile strikes persists throughout the

entire territory of Ukraine. Over the past day, the Russian military launched 9 missile strikes and 6 air strikes and carried out more than 56 MLRS attacks. The Russian strikes affected the object and civilian population of more than 27 Ukrainian towns and villages. In particular, Kharkiv, Shypuvate, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Andriivka, Bilohirka, Voznesensk, Prydniprovske. Near the state border, Pysarivka and Holyshivske in Sumy Oblast were shelled.

The Russian occupation authorities tried to compensate for the loss of personnel by drafting the local population of the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. Thus, men from Luhansk immediately after mobilization are sent to replenish the units that suffered the most significant losses, skipping medical examination and training.

During the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 17 strikes. Hits on 4 enemy strongholds, 11 weapons and military equipment concentration areas, and 2 Russian anti- aircraft missile systems are confirmed. In addition, Ukrainian air defense units destroyed one helicopter and two Russian UAVs in different directions.

Over the past day, Ukrainian missile forces and artillery hit 2 enemy command posts, 4 areas of manpower, weapons and military equipment concentration, one anti-aircraft missile complex, a stationary bridge and a Russian pontoon bridge crossing.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;

• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired tanks, mortars and barrel artillery at the positions of the Ukrainian troops in the areas of Hraniv, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, Vovchansk and Bily Kolodyaz.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base,

15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian forces fired mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas around Bilohorivka, Serebryanka and Spirne.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Odradivka, Zaitseve, Opytne, Yakovlivka, Yuryivka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Novopil, Olhivske, Pervomaiske.

Over the past 24 hours, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Strileche, Zelene, Mayorsk, Spirne, Zaytseve, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vuhledar.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The destruction of the enemy S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in the area of Tokmak is confirmed, as well as the destruction of the Russian positions in the areas around Hulyaipole and Orihiv.

Kherson direction

• Vasylivka–Nova Zburyivka and Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 252 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 27, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.3 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiments of the 106th parachute airborne division, 7th military base of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 16th and 346th separate SOF brigades.

While leaving villages and towns in Kherson Oblast, the Russian military mines infrastructure facilities and private residences, it imposed a ban on any movement of the local residents.

In the temporarily occupied Republic of Crimea, the medical facilities of Yevpatoria lack medical equipment to treat wounded Russian servicemen.

On the evening of October 3, the Defense Forces attacked the Russian pontoon and ferry crossings across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

Kherson-Berislav bridgehead

• Velyka Lepetikha – Oleksandrivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 250 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 22, the average width of the combat area of one BTG –11.8 km;

• Deployed BTGs: 108th Air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault brigade of the 7th Air assault division, 4th military base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th, and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 239th Air assault regiments of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331 Air assault regiments of the 98th Air assault division, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, 127th separate ranger brigade, 11th separate airborne assault brigade, 10th separate SOF brigade, PMC.

The areas around Vyshchetarasivka, Dobra Nadiya, Illinka, Marhanets, Chervonohryhorivka, Nikopol, Pokrovske, Velyke Artakove, Andriivka, Stepova Dolyna, Bezymenne, Myrne, Luch, Shyroke, Bilohirka and Lozove were shelled by tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery.

The offensive of the Ukrainian 128th separate mountain assault brigade was supported by the offensive of the 35th separate marines brigade from the Inhulets bridgehead in the northern (on

Davydiv Brid) and eastern (on Brusynske) directions. The 35th Airborne Division was hit by Russian artillery and lost several combat vehicles but managed to liberate Davydiv Brid.

On October 2, the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked and defeated units of the Russian 205th separate motorized rifle brigade in Myrolyubivka and Lyubymivka, forcing the survivors to flee to Beryslav. This exposed the strongholds in Khreshchenivka and Zolota Balka. At the same time, an attack was made on the command post of the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade; the deputy commander of this brigade was killed, and the Russian forces had to withdraw quickly in the direction of Dubchany.

On October 3, units of the Russian Armed Forces regrouped in the Mykhailivka area, called in air support, but lost a Su-25 attack aircraft in the Novovoskresensk area. The “regrouping” turned into a complete defeat, the Russian units left Ukrainka and Bilyaivka, and the Russian airborne units retreated from Arkhangelske and Myrolyubivka. Before leaving Dubchany, Russian sappers blew up a bridge.

The offensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces takes place with the strong support of the combat support units, in particular, EW. During the offensive, the command of the 205th separate motorized rifle brigade of the RF Armed Forces and the 83rd separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces were literally paralyzed.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

On October 5, 9 enemy warships and boats were on a mission in the Black Sea, conducting reconnaissance and controlling navigation in the Azov-Black Sea waters. Up to 32 Kalibr missiles are ready for a volley on five carriers: three surface and two underwater (one frigate 1135.6, two “Buyan-M” missile corvettes and two submarines of project 636.3). In general, the current activity of the maritime groups of the Russian Federation is characterized by low intensity. The rocket threat to [the territory of] Ukraine remains high.

In the Sea of Azov, the Russian military continues to control sea communications, keeping up to 6 ships and boats on combat duty.

The Russian military continues shelling Ukrainian ports and coastal areas. Today, October 5, the Russian forces attacked Odesa with “Shahid 136” kamikaze drones. All six drones were shot down by air defense on the approach to the city.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 10 Su-27, Su-30, and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

The movement of military equipment by road and rail transport at the territory of the temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea in the direction of Kherson Oblast remains consistently intensive. Railway freight trains arrive to Kherson Oblast from the Crimean side, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiiivka” stations.

Although the occupying authorities claim that the “implementation of the conscription plan by the occupied Crimea” has been completed, the criminal mobilization continues. Moreover, on October 10, the Russian Federation may announce the second wave of the alleged “partial” mobilization.

“Grain Initiative”: On October 5, 6 ships with 115.5 thousand tons of agricultural products, which will be sent to the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe, left the ports of “Odesa”, “Pivdenny” and “Chornomorsk”. Among them is the bulk carrier ZHE HAI 505, which will deliver 28,500 tons of wheat to Algeria. A total of 59,000 Ukrainian wheat has been sent to Algeria since the beginning of October. Since the first ship left Ukrainian ports, 274 ships with 6.2 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products have left for Asian, European and African countries.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 05.10

Personnel – almost 61,000 people (+200);

Tanks 2,445 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,038 (+20);

Artillery systems – 1,414 (+7);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 341 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 177 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,841 (+18); Aircraft – 266 (0);

Helicopters – 232 (+4);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,032 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 246 (0);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

91% of Ukrainians believe that Russia should compensate for all the damage caused to Ukraine by its invasion. Still, only 31% of respondents believe this will happen, according to the results of the “Rating” group poll conducted on September 15-19.

The Chairman of the Supreme Court, Vsevolod Knyazev, dismissed Judge Bohdan Lviv from the Supreme Court. The decision was made based on information from the Security Service of Ukraine, which confirmed that the judge has Russian citizenship, the press service of the Supreme Court reported. The Ukrainian Constitution mandates such a decision, and this is the first time a decision like this has been made.

International diplomatic aspect

“We have always [treated] and, despite the current tragedy, still have great respect for the Ukrainian people, for Ukrainian culture and the Ukrainian language, literature, and so on. And we have never allowed anything that is allowed in Ukraine in relation to the Russian culture and the Russian language,” said Putin right after signing decrees on the illegal annexation of 18% of Ukrainian territories, not to mention [earlier annexed] Crimea. “In all honesty, the results of the referendum not only pleased me but also surprised me,” he said.

In response to President Putin’s decision to annex four Ukrainian Oblasts, the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, said on his Telegram channel, “The worthless decisions of the terrorist country are not worth the paper they are signed on. The collective madhouse can continue to live in a fictional world.” He said that the Armed Forces, high-precision weapons, and the offensive would help return to reality. He concluded that Ukraine would return everything it owns.

While the head of the IAEA was on his way to Kyiv to discuss the situation at Russia’s illegally occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant, Putin ordered his government to take “control” of ZNPP. “The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is now on the territory of the Russian Federation and, accordingly, should be operated under the supervision of our relevant agencies,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin. Moscow has already appointed a new “director” of the station, just days after Russian troops hijacked and held the current, legitimate director of the ZNPP hostage. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called on its international partners to impose sanctions on Rosatom. The MFA statement called Putin’s decree on the illegal takeover of the nuclear plant null and void and condemned it as a crime that “further increases the risks and threats in the field of nuclear security caused by the Russian occupation of the ZNPP.”

EU ambassadors agreed on new Russia sanctions, including the oil price cap theme. The deal has some concessions for Greece, Cyprus, and Malta, whose tanker fleet delivers most of the Russian oil to the markets. A mechanism [to deal with] sanctions’ circumvention is envisaged. The 8th package also includes several technology limitations and restrictions related to Russia’s steel industry. OPEC+, which includes Russia, agreed to slash their production by two million barrels per day. The news pushed oil prices 1 percent up and meant more revenues for Russia and their companions and higher prices for consumers. POTUS said he is “disappointed” by a move from oil exporting nations to slash production, and his National Security Advisor characterized it as a “short-sighted decision” that would hit countries “already reeling” from spiralling inflation. It remains to be seen how the EU and OPEC+ decisions would affect Russia. Had the G7 and the EU imposed a price cap earlier, there would have been a result. However, slow decision-making gave Russia enough time to prepare and take counteractions.

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