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CDS Daily brief (06.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of October 6, 2022, more than 1,205 Ukrainian children are victims of full- scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who have died and been wounded in the course of the Russian aggression is 418, and more than 787 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.

Zaporizhzhia was shelled twice during the day with modified S-300 missiles. Currently, we know about 1 dead, 12 injured, and 21 rescued. But people may remain under the rubble. There were no military facilities nearby, said Oleksandr Starukh, head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (OMA).

In the morning, the Russians fired two rockets at the Shepetivka district of the Khmelnytsky Oblast (northwestern part of Ukraine). One rocket fell near an infrastructure facility. The other fell on the wasteland.

At night, the enemy attacked the south of Ukraine with kamikaze drones. Nine kamikaze drones were destroyed by air defense forces, seven of them in the Mykolayiv Oblast. Also, during October 5-6, the Russians shelled the Mykolaiv and Bashtan districts of the Oblast. As a result, residential buildings, farm buildings, and infrastructure were damaged.

On October 6, a Ukrainian air defense unit destroyed three Shahed-136 kamikaze drones while approaching Odesa from the sea, reported the operational command “South”.

During the night, the Russian occupiers struck several industrial facilities in Kharkiv. Deputy Head of the National Police of the Kharkiv Region, Serhiy Bolvinov, said the city was attacked by Iranian UAVs that night. This is the first recorded use of kamikaze drones in Kharkiv – the wreckage was seized on the spot. The Russians also shelled Kupyanskyi (3 wounded), Vovchanskyi, Bogodukhivskyi, and Kharkivskyi districts of the Oblast.

On October 5, the enemy fire killed 3 civilians in Torske and 1 in Zarichne in Donetsk Oblast.

The Russians shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast all night long with rocket launchers and heavy artillery. As a result, a dozen private houses, an enterprise and power lines were damaged in Nikopol. In addition, several private houses and farm buildings were damaged in Myrivska hromada.

Overall, in Nikopol and its region, 356 multi-story buildings and almost 1,000 private homes were destroyed due to enemy strikes.

Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council Chairman Mykola Lukashuk said this during a briefing. Lukashuk added that the enemy is shelling the Nikopol district almost every day. Shelling is conducted exclusively from the territory of Energodar. “They hit from Grady; sometimes they hit from heavy artillery. The distance from Energodar to Nikopol is up to 7 km, which is small. It is a fire damage zone from almost every [type] of enemy’s weapons. From guns to rocket systems and mortars,” he said. Before the war, 120,000 people lived in Nikopol, and the city was a fairly large industrial center. Today, almost 80,000 people have left.

In the de-occupied territory of the Kharkiv region, law enforcement officers have already discovered and inspected 22 torture chambers set up by the occupiers, Serhiy Bolvinov, head of the Investigative Department of the State Police in the Kharkiv region, reported this at a briefing. In almost all towns and large villages where military units of the Russian army were based, places of detention for civilians and prisoners of war were set up.

In recently liberated Lyman and Sviatohirsk, the payment of pensions was resumed, and the restoration of infrastructure and the repair of damaged buildings began. Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko announced following the results of a trip to Donetsk Oblast, emphasized that among the priority tasks of local authorities is restoring the electricity supply and preparing for winter in those towns where people live. He noted that over 500 residents live in Sviatohirs, and about 15 thousand people remain in the Lyman community.

In the liberated city of Izyum of the Kharkiv Oblast, stable mobile and Internet connection has been resumed. However, the connection of electricity is complicated due to the minings. Deputy Mayor of Izyum, Volodymyr Matsokin, said at a briefing that humanitarian aid is sufficient and diverse. “Today, we are already moving to the stage when building materials are already arriving and being distributed among residents – for (restoration of) roofs, and windows, preparation for winter,” Matsokin said.

Azov regiment defenders of Mariupol, recently released from Russian captivity, gave a press conference. More than two thousand defenders of Mariupol are currently in Russian captivity. The process of their liberation continues, said Bohdan “Tavr” Krotevych, chief of staff of the “Azov” regiment. He said that the operation of their exit from “Azovstal” was coordinated with the country’s leadership. During the exit from “Azovstal”, regiment commander Denys Prokopenko had contact with President Volodymyr Zelensky, General Valery Zaluzhny and the head of the Main Intelligence directorate Kyrylo Budanov. “It was very difficult for us to make this decision, but at that time, we had 600 wounded, and 300 of them were just … dying very slowly. Therefore, the officers unanimously decided to exit in order to provide urgent medical aid to the soldiers who were in the bunker in the hospital,” Krotevych noted, noting that at that time, the hospital did not have medicines and equipment to provide proper care to the wounded.

During the exit from “Azovstal”, representatives of the Red Cross assured that civilians [who exited] would enter the territory controlled by Ukraine. But this did not happen. Suspilne writes about this with reference to the released fighters of “Azov”.

Operational situation

It is the 225th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”).

The enemy is trying to maintain control over the captured territories and disrupt the intensive actions of the Ukrainian Defence Forces in certain directions. The enemy continues attempts to conduct offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions and regroups its troops in some directions.

The Russian military fired at the positions of Ukrainian troops along the contact line, conducted remote mining of some parts of the territory, and conducted aerial reconnaissance. The enemy inflicts strikes on civilian infrastructure, violating the norms of international humanitarian law and the laws and customs of war.

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military launched 5 missile strikes and 8 air strikes and carried out more than 65 MLRS attacks. The Russian strikes affected the objects and civilian population of more than 30 Ukrainian towns and villages, including Bila Tserkva, Kupyansk, Bilohorivka, Siversk, Karlivka, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Hulyaipole, Progress, Nikopol, and Myrne. Near the state border, the enemy shelled Rozhkovichi and Fotovizh of the Sumy Oblast. The threat of Russian air and missile strikes persists throughout the entire territory of Ukraine.

During the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 15 strikes. Hits on 12 enemy weapons and military equipment concentration areas and 4 Russian anti-aircraft missile systems are confirmed. In addition, nine enemy UAVs were shot down.

Over the past day, Ukrainian missile forces and artillery hit 2 enemy command posts, 14 areas of manpower, weapons and military equipment concentration, an ammunition depot, and eight other important enemy targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps,

2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled with tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery Udy, Veterynarne, Strilecha, Krasne, Ohirtseve, Hlyboke, Neskuchne, and Milove.

As Ukrainian Defense Forces are gradually liberating the temporarily occupied territories, the accomplices of the occupation authorities are fleeing simultaneously with units of the Russian occupation forces. Thus, three buses of supporters of the [Russian] occupiers were noted moving from the village of Svatove to Novopskov, Luhansk Oblast.

In order to search for Ukrainian subversives and partisans, the occupiers imposed a curfew and intensified filtering measures in the village of Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy fired from mortars, barrel and jet artillery at Verkhnyokamyanske, Ivanivka, Serebryanka and Spirne.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired at the Ukrainian Defence Forces’ positions near Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Odradivka, Mayorsk, New York, Yuryivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Pisky, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Paraskoviivka, and Novomykhailivka.

Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Vyimka, Soledar, Odradivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Krasnohorivka, Mayorsk and Novomykhailivka.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired at the areas of Novopil, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Shakhtarske, Zolota Nyva, Poltavka, Hulyaipole, Chervone, Pavlivka, Hulyaipilske, Dorozhnyanka and Novoukrayinka.

Russian troops continue to mine the infrastructure facilities of the city of Energodar.

Tavriysk direction

Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;

Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian military continues to regroup and withdraw their units. More than 30 towns and villages along the contact line were shelled with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery. In particular, Velyke Artakove, Biloghirka, Blahodativka, Andriivka, Pervomaiske, Lyubomyrivka, Soldatske, Pravdyne, Myrne and Oleksandrivka.

Due to the offensive of Ukraine’s Defense Forces, representatives of private security campaigns [that arrived] from Crimea plan to evacuate back to the peninsula.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

On October 6, 10 enemy warships and boats were on a mission in the Black Sea, conducting reconnaissance and controlling navigation in the Azov-Black Sea waters. Up to 32 Kalibr missiles are ready for a volley on five carriers: three surface and two underwater (one frigate 1135.6, two “Buyan-M” missile corvettes and two submarines of project 636.3). In general, the current activity of the maritime groups of the Russian Federation is characterized by low intensity. The rocket threat to [the territory of] Ukraine remains high.

In the waters of the Sea of Azov, there are patrol ships and boats on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports in order to block the Azov coast.

The enemy continues shelling Ukrainian ports and coastal areas. At night on October 6, the enemy attacked Odesa with Shahid 136 kamikaze drones. Some of the drones were shot down by air defense.

On the morning of October 5, a loud explosion was recorded in the area of the Belbek airfield. On the night of October 6, several loud explosions were heard at the Kacha airfield near Sevastopol. There were no official messages from the Russian authorities of Sevastopol. Kacha is a military airfield in Crimea, on the northern outskirts of Sevastopol within the city limits; the distance from the city center is about 23 km. Currently, the airfield belongs to the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, and the 318th separate mixed aviation regiment of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is based at the airfield. It is armed with 5 Be-12 aircraft, 8 An-26 aircraft, 14 Ka-27 helicopters, 2 Ka-31R helicopters (long-range radar detection and control helicopters), and 4 Mi-8 helicopters.

Two Tu-154B-1 passenger planes (registration numbers RA-85586 and RA-85605) arrived at Crimea’s military airfields from the Russian Federation’s northern part, which delivered special forces and marines from the Northern Fleet. On the outskirts of the city of Sevastopol, repeated activations of air defense forces were recorded.

During the six months of the full-scale war, more than 750 different cruise missiles were launched from the occupied Crimea and the Black Sea, which destroyed at least hundreds of civilian objects: schools, universities, ordinary residential buildings, and hospitals.

The mobilization of residents of occupied Crimea is aimed at implementing the Russian Federation’s long-term strategy to replace the peninsula’s local population with Russian citizens.

The next waves of mobilization will be similar to those in the occupied Donbas, when men were grabbed at work, at home, and on the street.

“Grain Initiative”: 8 ships with 137.8 thousand tons of agricultural products left Ukrainian ports for Asian and European countries. The bulk carriers HASAN G, UMIT G and the tanker MERA departed from the piers of the Pivdenny port. From the port of Chornomorsk – ANASTASIA, FALCON S, SERENITY IBTIHAJ, MAGNOLIA, SILVER LADY. Since the departure of the first ship with Ukrainian food, 6.39 million tons of agricultural products have been exported.

A total of 282 ships left Ukrainian ports with agricultural products that were sent to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 06.10

Personnel – almost 61,330 people (+330);

Tanks – 2,449 (+14);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,064 (+26);

Artillery systems – 1,424 (+10);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 344 (+3); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 177 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,854 (+13); Aircraft – 266 (0);

Helicopters – 232 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,047 (+15); Intercepted cruise missiles – 246 (0);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The United States will provide Ukraine with $55 million to prepare for the heating season in a war. This was stated by the head of the Agency for International Development (USAID), Samantha Power, who is visiting Kyiv. Also, as part of the Energy Security Project, Kyiv received pipes and pipeline fittings worth $1.3 million.

The World Bank will finance infrastructure “survival projects” in Ukraine. The cooperation of the World Bank and the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine is designed to meet the priority infrastructure needs of Ukraine. The projects are planned to be implemented within 6-9 months. Currently, the parties are discussing the possibility of attracting $100 million for the railway and road industry. The department is also cooperating with the World Bank to create a Trust Fund for the restoration of Ukraine and a project office to coordinate this process. The Ministry anticipates that the organization will become one of the primary sources of funds for reconstruction. At the same time, the government is implementing key reforms related to the relevant projects. In particular, public procurement reforms, pricing systems in construction, development of standard forms of subcontracts, etc.

The “electronic residency” will be implemented in Ukraine; a total of 252 Ukrainian MPs voted for draft law No. 5270 on special status for foreigners, which opens up the possibility of doing business in Ukraine online, said one of the authors of the document, MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak. He expects 1,000 e-residents in the first year of the law. The law on e-residency adopted by the parliament is another step towards building a strong IT brand of Ukraine worldwide and supporting the economy. This was announced by Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov on his Telegram.

International diplomatic aspect

The EU has adopted a new sanctions package against Russia, which “is proof of our determination to stop Putin’s war machine and respond to his latest escalation with fake “referenda” and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories,” stated the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The package includes a price cap and further restrictions on the maritime transport of Russian crude oil and petroleum products to third countries. The EU also extends the import ban on steel products and further import restrictions on wood pulp and paper, cigarettes, plastics, and cosmetics. The sale, supply transfer, or export of additional goods used in the aviation sector will also be restricted. Seven entities, including defense enterprises, are sanctioned. Thirty individuals, including officials, a bunch of pop singers, and Alexander Dugin, a philosopher of Russian fascism, are added to the blacklist.

“Our enemies have realized that their sanctions are self-mutilation. A typical crossbow in your own ass,” former Russian President Medvedev reflected on the 8th package of the EU’s restrictive measures. The Russian statesman believes that the West, which has lost “in the economic battle,” should “beg for mercy.”

Valentina Matvienko, Chairperson of the Federation Council, proposed Ukraine hold negotiations within the framework of the “parliamentary G20” meeting in Indonesia. She accused NATO of bombing Yugoslavia, the West of wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lybia, as well as of blowing up Nord Stream gas pipelines (though she corrected herself by saying that someone did it), and the other Parliaments of ignoring “coup d’etat” in Kyiv in 2014. She expressed Russia’s willingness to help to regulate the “Ukrainian domestic crisis.” Last week, President Putin called on Ukraine to immediately cease hostilities and return to the negotiating table but stressed that “the choice of the people in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson” would not be discussed.

The Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine advised Mrs Matvienko to think about her betrayal of the Motherland (originally, she is from Ukraine) and the line of defense in the Hague. “There will be negotiations, but only with the new Russian government. But then you will be very far away,” he summarised. This week President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree defining the Russian annexation acts as null and void and stated that negotiations with Russia are impossible as long as Vladimir Putin is in office.

The Ukrainian Parliament called on the international community to support the indigenous peoples’ right to self-determination on the Russian Federation’s territory. The document emphasizes that in implementing its aggressive imperialist policy, Russia has been committing

genocide against enslaved peoples for centuries, ignores the principle of equality and self- determination of peoples, and grossly violates the rights of indigenous peoples and citizens belonging to national minorities. Even while waging a war of aggression against Ukraine, the Russian authorities are committing genocide against the peoples of the Russian Federation, in particular, using mobilization for this purpose. “Acknowledgement that the Ukrainian state will not be safe as long as Belarus is occupied by an internal usurper and an external occupier, while parts of Moldova, Georgia, and Azerbaijan are occupied, that the Ukrainian nation will not be free, safe and prosperous as long as Chechens, Ingush, Dagestanis, Buryats, Tuvans and all other peoples of the Russian Federation – is a huge step for Ukraine,” wrote Bohdan Yaremenko, an MP who presented the motion.

Prague hosted forty-three European leaders for the inaugural meeting of the European Political Community (EPC), a brainchild of the French President. “This meeting is a way of looking for a new order without Russia,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said. To turn the initiative into a “European community of peace,” urged other leaders President Volodymyr Zelenskyi via video link. The UK Prime Minister stressed her “strong agreement on the importance of like-minded European democracies presenting a united front against Putin’s brutality.” “Those who are meeting here know that the Russian attack on Ukraine is a brutal violation of the security and peace order that we have had in Europe over the last decades,” said the German Chancellor. “It is important that we reject this attack, that we do not accept that part of the neighboring country is annexed,” Olaf Scholz added. “What you will see here is that Europe stands in solidarity against the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” stated the Icelandic Prime Minister.

The European Parliament adopted a resolution that urges EU member states and other countries supporting Ukraine to increase their military assistance massively, particularly in areas requested by the Ukrainian government. “Hesitating” member states should provide their fair share of necessary military aid, which will help shorten the war. This part might refer to Germany, which gives Ukraine some weaponry needed but finds various justifications for not sending modern tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. The European Parliament called irresponsible and dangerous the recent Russian threats to use nuclear weapons. MEPs call on member states and international partners to be ready for a quick and decisive response should Russia go nuclear. Furthermore, the EU Parliament rejected Russia’s claims that an attack on the illegally annexed territory of Ukraine is an attack on Russia itself and thus would serve as a justification for a nuclear attack.

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