CDS Daily brief (08.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

Speaking at the press conference on the occasion of being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, Oleksandra Matviychuk, head of the Ukrainian “Center for Civil Liberties”, emphasized that the Nobel Peace Prize belongs to every Ukrainian and the fact that it was awarded to Russian, Ukrainian and Belarussian human rights defenders together should not be seen as an old Soviet narrative about “brotherly nations”. Matviychuk said she was going to use the publicity that comes with the prize for three purposes: 1) to release all Ukrainian military and civilian prisoners,

2) to initiate reform of the international peace and security system that now lies in ruins like Ukrainian Mariupol, and 3) to give a chance for justice to hundreds of thousands of victims of war crimes, create an international tribunal and bring Putin, Lukashenko and other war criminals to justice.

The head of Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said that during the past day, the Russian invaders killed 6 civilians in Donetsk Oblast, namely 2 in Zarichne, 2 in Ocheretyne, 1 in Bakhmut, and 1 in Pavlivka. In addition, 9 more civilians killed by the Russians during the occupation were found in the recently liberated communities: 6 in Lyman, 2 in Sviatohirsk, and 1 in Yarova. Another 17 people were injured yesterday. On the morning of October 8, the Russian forces launched a missile attack on Kurakhove. 3 people were injured, and 6 high-rise buildings were damaged, Pavlo Kyrylenko reported.

On the night of October 8, the Russian forces dealt a total of 5 strikes on Kharkiv. A man was injured with shrapnel wounds, Oleg Synehubov, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration (OMA), said. The S-300 missiles were launched from Belgorod, Russia. A sports complex and non-residential buildings were damaged, and there were hits in open areas.

During the night, the Russian   forces   fired   almost   80   shells   from   the   Grad   MLRS on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, said the head of the Dnipropetrovsk OMA, Valentyn Reznichenko.

The number of victims of the Russian attack on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia on October 6 has increased to 17 people, including a child, the press service of the State Emergency Service reported. At about 21:50 on October 8, the Russian occupiers once again hit Zaporizhzhia, the head of the regional military administration Oleksandr Starukh, reported. He called on all the residents to proceed to shelters.

In Sumy Oblast, as of 21:30 on October 8, there were 55 strikes, of which 28 were unguided rockets, Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of Sumy Oblast, reports. As a result of an airstrike on one of the villages of the Velikopysarivka community, a man was injured. He was hospitalized.

As of October 7, the Pension Fund of Ukraine has paid out more than 516 million UAH to the residents of Luhansk Oblast, Serhii Gaidai, the head of the Luhansk military administration, said. He noted that this covers 100% of the current need.

Occupied territories

The Russian occupation authorities of Kherson Oblast said they would “gradually invite” women, children, and the elderly from the Kherson Oblast to Crimea, Rostov Region, Krasnodar Territory for a few weeks. The move is reportedly meant for their safety. Krasnodar Krai’s governor confirmed that his region is ready to receive up to 10 thousand people. Given the stories of filtration camps, family separations and forced adoption of Ukrainian children in Russia, the intention should be a reason for concern.

Some schools in the occupied parts of Kherson Oblast where, according to the “official” documents of the occupiers, the teaching continues, house Russian military units and equipment. The parents are forced to bring their children to school. Such cases are observed in Hola Prystan, the Center of National Resistance reports.

The Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Mikhail Mishustin, signed the decree to start a [Russian] federal state unitary enterprise Zaporizhzhia NPP at the Ukrainian nuclear power plant captured by the Russian forces. The decision constitutes an open attempt to steal another Ukraine’s state property. The decision was adopted to implement the decree of the President Putin of October 5, 2022. Early Saturday morning, due to shelling by Russian troops, the last power line with the 750kV power system of the ZNPP was damaged and switched off. As a result, Zaporizhzhia NPP was left with no power supply. Diesel generators turned on automatically. They have 10 days worth of diesel fuel available to continue their work.

About 6,000 cars are waiting at the checkpoint in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, to leave the temporarily Russian-occupied territory for the territory controlled by Ukraine, according to the legally elected mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov. Vasylivka is the only checkpoint between the Russian-occupied and the free territory of Ukraine. “The enemies mock our people. This morning they let about 100 cars go to the last checkpoint, people were crying with happiness that they could soon be in Zaporizhzhia, but right there, they were turned around and told that Saturday- Sunday is a weekend,” Fedorov said.

According to Ivan Fedorov, panic could be observed among the occupiers following the Kerch Strait bridge explosion. A significant movement from the Crimean side to Berdyansk has started because the only remaining route to leave the temporarily occupied territory runs through Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol, and then to the territory of the Russian Federation. “Today, this direction is busy, a large number of cars have left Crimea and are going to the Russian Federation”, Fedorov said.

Head of Luhansk OMA, Serhii Haidai, said that Russia pursues coercive policy on the occupied territory in three directions 1) forced mobilization of males; 2) children are forcibly taken somewhere towards Russia, it is not known where; 3) they forcibly take away new and modern equipment from hospitals and schools.

Operational situation

It is the 227th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories, disrupts the intensive actions of the Ukrainian troops in certain directions, and continues offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

The Russian military shells the positions of the Ukrainian troops along the entire contact line, carries out defense fortification in certain directions, and conducts aerial reconnaissance. The Russian forces continue to violate the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war. They strike critical infrastructure. The threat of Russian air and missile strikes persists throughout the entire territory of Ukraine.

Over the past day, the Russian military launched 9 missile strikes and 12 air strikes and carried out more than 80 MLRS attacks.

The Russian forces hit more than 20 Ukrainian towns and villages, including Slavhorod, Bilovody, Vuhledar, Ridkodub, Hulyaipilske, Novoandriivka, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv. Near the state border, the villages of Bleshnya, Hai and Senkivka of Chernihiv Oblast, Starykove of Sumy Oblast, Hlyboke, Udy, Ohirtseve, Strelecha, Kolodyazne, Dvorichne, Neskuchne of Kharkiv Oblast were shelled with Russian mortars and barrel artillery.

Over the past day, the Russian military used seven “Shahed-136” UAVs to attack Ukrainian cities. Three of them were shot down, and four hit targets in the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv.

During the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 30 strikes. Hits on 24 weapons and military equipment concentration areas and 6 Russian anti-aircraft missile systems are confirmed. Ukrainian air defense units shot down two enemy helicopters.

Over the past day, Ukraine’s missile forces and artillery hit two enemy command posts, an area of manpower, weapons and military equipment concentration, two areas of artillery firing positions, radar, and an electronic warfare complex.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD reported that after Russian Federation announced partial mobilization on September 21, more than 2,000 Russians contacted the Ukrainian hotline “I want to live”. A call was intercepted in which a Russian soldier informed his wife that 60 of the 65 mobilized members of his unit had disappeared without a trace on the second day on the front line.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
• ployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian assault on Krasny and continued the counteroffensive on the Kreminna-Svatove highway.

Russian troops repelled the Ukrainian offensive on the villages east and southeast of Kupyansk. Russian reserve units BARS-16 and BARS-13 and units of the 3rd motorized rifle division are getting established in new positions. Up to 1,000 mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC were redeployed to Lysychansk to prevent a Ukrainian breakthrough in the area after the “fall” of Lyman.

Russian officers left the mobilized servicemen in Kreminna.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Ukrainian Defence Forces’ positions in Spirne, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Rozdolivka, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Dronivka, Vesele were shelled with enemy artillery of various types.

About three hundred wounded [Russian] prisoners who agreed to fight in Ukraine were sent to the hospital in Novosvitlivka (Luhansk Oblast).

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Ivanhrad, Opytne, Mayorsk, New York, Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Vesele, Odradivka, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka.

Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas around Vyimka, Bakhmutske, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Ozeryanivka, Zaitseve, Odradivka, Andriivka, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Vesele, Kamianka, Pobyeda, Nevelske, Novomykhailivka.

Russian troops captured Odradivka, Vesela Dolyna and occupied the outskirts of Zaitseve. They are trying to advance on Soledar and Bakhmutske, and made a slight advance to Pervomaiske. Units of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army stormed the Ukrainian positions in Maryinka. They are advancing in the direction of Novomykhailivka and Pobeda.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military did not carry out offensive actions. The Russian fire damaged infrastructure in 16 Ukrainian towns and villages, including Vremivka, Temyrivka, Olhivske, Hulyaipilske, and Zaliznychne.

In the temporarily captured territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russia is trying to intensify efforts to discredit units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Additional special correspondents of the Russian mass media are involved in fake content creation.

Russian units continue to suffer losses. Thus, the enemy lost about 85 people as WIA in the areas around Polohy and Tokmak due to the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ shelling of the Russian manpower concentration.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

Over 27 towns and villages near the contact line were shelled by enemy tanks, mortars, and barrel and rocket artillery.

Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repulsed three enemy attacks on Ternovi Pody from the Zeleny Hay area. They attacked Maksymivka and continued to keep Russian logistics facilities and their supply routes under fire control. The Ukrainian forces struck the area where Russian troops were concentrated in Borozenske, killing 10 servicemen and wounding 20. They hit three Russian ammunition depots north of Kherson and southeast of Mykolaiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter and struck Russian positions in Chornobayivka. Over the past day, one more enemy pontoon crossing was destroyed. Information about the destruction of enemy ammunition depots on October 5 near Kinsky Rozdory has been confirmed.

Ukrainian troops unsuccessfully tried to advance on Russian positions in Pyatykhatki, Sadki, Ishchenka and Bezymenna.

Russian forces constantly shell Ukrainian units in Pravdyne, Soldatske and along the E58 (M14) route. Russian troops strengthen their positions northwest of Kherson by involving the 127th regiment of the so-called DPR in digging trenches in Kyselivka. Russian troops build defensive positions along the Sukhy Stavok – Borozenske – Sukhanov – Mylove line. They urgently redeployed troops from Nova Kakhovka to Beryslav.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

On October 8, eleven enemy warships and boats were on a mission in the Black Sea, conducting reconnaissance and controlling navigation in the Black Sea waters. There are 24 Kalibr missiles ready for a volley on four carriers: two surface and two underwater (one frigate 1135.6, one

“Buyan-M” missile corvette and two submarines of project 636.3). In general, the current activity of the maritime groups of the Russian Federation is characterized by low intensity. The rocket threat to [the territory of] Ukraine remains high.

The Russian military continues shelling Ukrainian ports and coastal areas. On the night of October 8, the Russian forces attacked Odesa and Mykolayiv with “Shahid 136” and other kamikaze drones. Some of the drones were shot down by air defense.

Today, October 8, a powerful explosion occurred on the Kerch bridge. The explosion went off around 6:00 a.m., and a rail tank car caught fire. The fire lasted for several hours, making it impossible for the Russian side to establish the extent of the destruction for a long time. “At 6:05, the equipment showed a false “busy” signal on the railway tracks on the railway part of the Kerch Strait transport crossing. A rail tank car caught fire in the tail of a freight train. The locomotive with part of the wagons was taken to the Kerch station. “Emergency operation is underway,” the Crimean Railway said in a statement. The anti-terrorist committee of the Russian Federation announced its version that a truck was blown up on the Crimean bridge. This caused seven railway fuel tanks to catch fire. Two automobile spans of the roadway of the bridge have partially collapsed. The Crimean occupying authorities accuse the Ukrainian side of sabotage.

Russian special services are currently investigating how a truck with explosives drove onto the Crimean bridge. Inspection and maintenance radio technical complexes ST-6035, which are supposed to detect suspicious cargo, did not go off, and the traffic police inspectors let the truck go.

Later it became apparent that it was impossible to establish a fast ferry crossing due to weather conditions. In Crimea, there was a frantic demand for automobile fuel, and huge queues arose at gas stations. Navigation through the Crimean Strait was closed, and a vast number of ships accumulated on both sides of the strait in the Black and Azov Seas. The damage to the Crimean bridge made it difficult for the occupiers to supply food, fuel, and weapons to their military group in the temporarily occupied peninsula and Kherson Oblast.

“Grain Initiative”: 7 ships with 172.6 thousand tons of agricultural products are heading from the ports of Greater Odesa to the countries of Asia and Europe.

The bulk carrier CORNELIA M with 60,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat left for Vietnam from the Pivdenny port. The ships SHAMAN WISDOM, LADY EVA, and ORIS SOFI left the berths of the Odesa port. Bulk carriers LAURUS, ENEIDA and tanker CHEM HERO left from the port of Chornomorsk. Since the departure of the first ship with Ukrainian food, 6.6 million tons of agricultural products have been exported. A total of 292 ships with food for the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa left Ukrainian ports.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres and his team are working on expanding and extending the UN-brokered agreement for a year, allowing the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea region, which may expire at the end of November.

UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths and senior UN trade representative Rebecca Greenspan will travel to Moscow in about a week to discuss both issues with senior Russian officials. Facilitating the supply of food and fertilizer from Russia is the central aspect of the package deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey on July 22, which also restored the supply of grain and fertilizer from the Black Sea.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 08.10

Personnel – almost 62,060 people (+380);

Tanks 2,472 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,111 (+18);

Artillery systems – 1,459 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 345 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 180 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,875 (+13); Aircraft – 266 (0);

Helicopters – 234 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,079 (+12); Intercepted cruise missiles – 246 (0);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Based on the results of the first three quarters of 2022, the Ministry of Economy estimates a drop in Ukraine’s GDP at the level of 30%, the press service of the Ministry of Economy reports. The Ministry considers the improvement of the transportation dynamics as a positive factor of economic growth, including both the increase in the export of agricultural products by sea and the increase in the transportation of goods by railway. In the past month, the volume of Ukrainian exports in monetary terms increased by more than 23% compared to August of this year and is a record value since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation.

In response to the Kerch Strait bridge explosion, the Ukrainian National Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov published a video with the burning Crimean Bridge and the song “Happy Birthday, Mr President”. Other Ukrainian officials also joked on this occasion.

International diplomatic aspect

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has lost its last external power source due to renewed shelling and is now dependent on emergency diesel generators. The EU has “condemned in the strongest possible terms the decree of Russian President Putin on the illegal seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the establishment of a government enterprise to that matter.” “A nuclear safety and security protection zone must be established immediately, without prejudice to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” High Representative Josep Borrell demanded. However, no sanctions were imposed on Rosatom, a Russian entity involved in the criminal and dangerous hijacking of the ZNPP.

IMF has approved an additional $1.3 billion in emergency funds for Ukraine to “close a financing gap from shortfalls in grain exports” caused by the aggressive Russian war. “More than seven months after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the humanitarian and economic toll remains massive, resulting in large and urgent fiscal and external financing needs,” the IMF said. Earlier last week, the World Bank forecasted the Ukrainian economy would plunge 35% this year and at least $349 billion, 1.5 times the size of Ukraine’s prewar economy, needed to rebuild the economy. However, the WB has upgraded its June forecast of 45.1% freefall.

While for Russians, the most notable events of August were the war in Ukraine (34%), natural disasters (7%), and the death of Darya Dugina, a daughter of a Russian fascist-philosopher (7%), in September appeared a new hot topic. Almost half of Russians (47%) were watching the Kremlin’s mobilization efforts, a third (35%) were still following the war, and illegal Russian referenda drew the attention of 9%, according to the Levada Centre poll. Though attention to the war is one of the top-rated events, it’s still not significant enough [in public polls] given the fact that it is Russia’s war, not a foreign one. Furthermore, the invasion of Ukraine did not change Russians’ support of Vladimir Putin; his actions are supported by 82-83% from March through August. However, in September, the backing of his actions decreased to 77%, while disapproval rose from 15% in August to 21% in September. So, it’s Putin’s war to the same degree as almost of all Russians, and they start to worry when they face the possibility of getting to the trenches of pointless war.

Russia, relevant news

Arrests of Russian military servicemen began in Moscow, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported. According to the agency, downtown Moscow is blocked off, and units of the Dzerzhinsky operational division, considered the “elite” of the National Guard, entered the city. “They are moving to the center together with police units. Numerous arrests, detentions and blocking of the military servicemen are known,” the Ukrainian intelligence reports.

Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) has published an investigative report confirming that April 8, 2022, missile strike on the Kramatorsk train station originated from the territory controlled by the Russian Federation. “Six months on from the attack, the open-source evidence collected and verified by CIR investigators points toward Russia being the perpetrator of the missile strike that killed 59 civilians at the Kramatorsk train station,” CIR said. Russian media reported that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation had appointed Serhiy Surovikin as the commander of the joint group of troops in Ukraine. Surovikin has been the Commander-in-Chief of the Air and Space Forces since October 31, 2017. He also participated in the armed conflict in Tajikistan, the Second Chechen War and the military operation in Syria.

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