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CDS Daily brief (10.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

On the morning of October 10, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine. The General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that the Russian Federation used 84 cruise missiles and 24 UAVs, 13 of them Iranian “Shahid-136”. The Armed Forces destroyed 56 targets. Among them are 43 cruise missiles and 13 UAVs (10 of them of the “kamikaze” type).

The Russians have been planning missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital and infrastructure since the beginning of October, Ukrainian military intelligence reported. The occupying forces received a corresponding instruction on October 2 and 3. On October 8, seven Tu-160 strategic bombers were transferred from the Engels airfield to the “Olenya” airfield and equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. 6 cruise missile carriers with forty Caliber missiles were deployed on the outer raid of Sevastopol. The main goal is the destruction of the TPP, panic among Ukrainians and intimidation of the European public.

As of 17.00, the preliminary death toll is 11 people and almost 90 wounded. A total of 117 objects were damaged, of which 35 were residential buildings,” the State Emergency Service said.

The Russians attacked critical infrastructure facilities (mainly energy infrastructure) in 12 Ukrainian Oblasts and the city of Kyiv; more than 30 fires broke out, Ukrainian Emergency Services said. Electricity supply was disrupted almost throughout the entire Ukraine (in 15 Oblasts).

15 enemy rockets attacked the Lviv Oblast. Part of them was shot down by anti-aircraft defense, reported Lviv Oblast Military Administration. An explosion at a critical infrastructure facility was recorded. Due to the lack of electricity, the operation of the city’s thermal power plants has been temporarily suspended. About 90% of Lviv is without electricity, trams and trolleybuses do not run. More than 80% of traffic lights do not work. Traffic police regulated the major intersections. There is no hot water in the city. Cold water is supplied through the backup power supply, said Andriy Moskalenko, First Deputy Mayor of Lviv. Due to the lack of electricity, the air-raid alert work was interrupted. In case of alarm, cars with loudspeakers would drive through the city, said Mayor Sadovy.

As a result of today’s rocket attacks on Kyiv, 50 people were injured and six died, including the head of the department of Cyber Police Department, Yuriy Zaskoka, who was driving along Shevchenko Boulevard to work, said the National Police. Forty-five residential buildings, 5 critical infrastructure facilities, 6 educational institutions, 5 medical facilities were damaged in the capital by Russian shelling. The damaged pedestrian bridge over the Volodymyrsky Uzviz in Kyiv will be temporarily closed. Cultural objects and educational institutions were damaged, including the scientific library, the National University of Ukraine, the headquarters of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, the Kyiv City Teacher’s House, and the Khanenko Museum of Western Art. The blast wave damaged the windows of the central railway station in Kyiv, but the station is operational; boarding of trains is carried out through the western and eastern

underground passages, which simultaneously serve as a shelter. Ukrzaliznytsia railroad company reported 20 passenger trains delayed. As a result of the rocket attack on Kyiv, the visa department of the German consulate was damaged.

Additionally, almost every district of the Kyiv Oblast was subjected to Russian shelling. Still, due to the successful work of Ukrainian air defense, most of the Russian missiles were destroyed, Chief of Police of Kyiv Oblast Andriy Nebytov wrote in his Telegram. The authorities urged residents of the Kyiv Oblast to stock up on food, and water, charge phones, and take warm clothes.

Ukrenergo says that power outages are possible throughout Ukraine due to the shelling. To regulate the power grid, energy company DTEK warned that some enterprises and residential buildings would be disconnected from the grid for two hours. The schedule and geography of outages are unknown. Hospitals, the subway, rescue services, etc., are fully supplied with electricity. Ukrainians are strongly asked to limit their electricity consumption from 5:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. This will help pass the critical loads of our power grids.

In Zhytomyr, due to problems with the electricity supply, trams and trolleybuses will not be released on the line yet, announced Zhytomyr Mayor Serhiy Sukhomlyn. According to him, the main task now is to ensure electricity supply to high-rise buildings and the private sector.

Sukhomlyn noted that the water supply was restored almost everywhere in the city but still called on Zhytomyr residents to stock up on water.

In the morning, the enemy struck the Kremenchuk District of Poltava Oblast. Air defense forces shot down 2 rockets. Three people were injured due to the falling debris of one of them, reported Dmytro Lunin, the head of Poltava OMA.

In the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, 4 Russian missiles hit the Burshtynsk TPP. The fire at TPP, which broke out after the attacks, has already been extinguished.

Due to rocket attacks, there is no electricity and no water in Khmelnytskyi, and the operation of electric transport has been suspended, according to the city mayor Oleksandr Simchyshyn.

4 killed and more than 16 injured are reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Civil and critical infrastructure objects, high-rise buildings, public transport, and private vehicles were damaged.

Two were killed, and 23 were wounded after the night shelling of Zaporizhzhia. One of the seven rockets hit a 5-story building, and the second rocket hit a kindergarten in the city’s centre, causing significant destruction. The other – to the gymnasium of one of the districts. Fortunately, it did not break. Infrastructure facilities and high-voltage power grids were also damaged.

In Mykolaiv at night, Russian troops launched a missile attack on the National Shipbuilding University, announced the mayor Oleksandr Sienkovych, in his Telegram.

Until Friday, all Ukrainian schools will switch to distance learning, announced the Ministry of Education.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is on the previous day’s (Oct 9) developments)

It is the 228th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories. It concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and continues the offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

The Russian military shelled the positions of the Ukrainian troops along the entire contact line, fortified defensive positions and frontiers in certain directions, and conducted aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, it striked critical infrastructure and residential quarters.

The threat of Russian air and missile strikes persists throughout the entire territory of Ukraine. Thus, the Russian forces launched 10 rocket and 19 air strikes during the past day and carried out more than 90 MLRS attacks. As a result, the infrastructure and civilians of more than 30 towns, cities and villages, including Zaporizhzhia, Sloviansk, Novobakhmutivka, Siversk, Bilohorivka, Nikopol and Blahodativka, were affected over the past day. In addition, the Russian military used seven anti-aircraft guided missiles to attack Zaporizhzhia. Once again, the city’s critical infrastructure and peaceful civilians’ homes were affected.

Near the state border, Popivka, Starykove, Vorozhba, Yanzhulivka, Myropillya, Chervona Zorya, Veterynarne, Strileche, Mali Prohody, Vovchansk, Kamianka, Dvorichna, and Hrynkivka of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts were shelled.

The aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 24 strikes. Hits on 20 areas of enemy weapons and military equipment concentration and on 4 Russian anti-aircraft missile systems are confirmed. Ukrainian Air defense units shot down a Russian Su-25, 3 UAVs and 3 Kh-59 cruise missiles.

The Russian military command is creating a counterattack grouping in the northern part of Luhansk Oblast and on the territory of the Russian Belgorod Oblast. It may include up to 200-220 tanks, up to 340-350 self-propelled guns, up to 150 guns, 100-110 MLRS and up to 25,000 military personnel. The reserve can be up to 2,500-3,000 people. The technical readiness coefficient of the group’s combat equipment is estimated at 0.5-0.75.

There are no signs that offensive groupings of enemy troops are being formed on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Six BTGs of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus perform tasks related to protecting and defending the Ukraine section of the Belarusian state border: four BTGs from the 6th separate mechanized brigade (Grodno), one each from the 11th separate

mechanized brigade (Slonim) and 103rd separate airborne brigade (Vitebsk). In addition, a joint special-purpose unit made up of the 5th separate SOF brigade (Marina Horka), and the forward C2 point of this brigade has been deployed in the border area with Ukraine.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

Ukrainian forces continue their counteroffensive on the Kreminna-Svatove highway.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

Shelling from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery continued along the entire line of contact, particularly in the areas around Pershotravneve, Siversk, Makiivka, Novoyehorivka, Stelmakhivka, Terny, Torske and Zarichne. Also, in the area of Svatove, the Russian military blew up railway and road bridge crossings.

The commander of the Russian operational grouping of troops in the Svatove-Starobilsk direction decided to improve the tactical position of his troops in the Kreminna-Rubizhne area to create favorable conditions for continuing control of the region. For this purpose, the Russian military formed an assault tactical group northwest of Kreminna and attacked the positions of the advanced units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the direction of Kreminna – Terny, which advanced to Terny. This assault group consists of the 6th “assault detachment” of the Wagner PMC (numbering about 100 people from among former prisoners of the Leningrad Oblast (Russian Federation) correctional institutions. Subsequently, a reinforced company of the 752nd

motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd motorized rifle division, two platoons of the 13th “Kuban” BARS detachment and a company of the 119th rifle regiment of mobilization reserve of the 2nd Army Corps were brought into battle.

The attacks were carried out without the support of armored vehicles but were supported by mortar and artillery fire. The Russian forces suffered losses and were forced to withdraw to the starting positions. Units of the Russian Armed Forces regroup their forces in the Chervonpopivka- Zhytlivka area and prepare for new attempts to regain control over Terny and improve their tactical position in the areas of Yampolivka and Zarichne.

According to the available data, the Russian command formed two fairly powerful tactical groupings from the 2nd, 41st, 20th Armies and 1st Tank Army, units of the 18th motorized rifle division in the Svatove and Rubizhne-Sievierodonetsk directions (Kreminna district) 11th Army Corps and at least one SOF brigade. In addition to those mentioned above, up to two battalions of the 4th separated motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, four rifle battalions from the mobilization reserve regiments, six detachments of regional volunteers of the Russian Federation (according to the estimate of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD – 1-1.5 battalions in total), up to seven separate motorized rifle brigades of the Territorial Defense of the so-called LPR are also concentrated here.

In total, up to 10-11 BTGs switch to defense at the positions along the Svatove – Kreminna – Sieverodonetsk route, of which only half are manned to the “battalion” level; the rest are reinforced companies.

There are another 6-7 BTGs in reserve, a third of which are riflemen (there are no armored vehicles).

About 4-5 BTGs renew combat readiness near the area of future hostilities (manned with 40-60% of personnel and combat equipment).

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Rozdolivka, Serebryanka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske,

Zaitseve, Krasna Hora, Soledar. In addition, the occupiers mined the areas of Berestove, Avdiyivka, Kamianka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Pisky, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Ozaryanivka, Kamianka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

More than 20 towns and villages were affected by artillery fire. In particular, Vuhledar, Novopil, Shakhtarske, Mali Shcherbaky, Velyka Novosilka, Malynivka and Mala Tokmachka.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

Russian shelling was recorded in the areas of more than 25 towns and villages along the entire contact line. Near Dudchany, the Russian military used an attack UAV. In total, the occupiers made up to 30 UAV sorties in this direction for the purpose of aerial reconnaissance.

A critical situation is developing in the enemy 127th rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps. By the decision of the 49th Army commander, the hastily formed regiment was immediately transferred to the first line of battle in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Relatives of mobilized servicemen prepared an appeal to the law enforcement agencies of the Russian Federation about significant losses and inaction of the military command. There are lengthy interruptions in water and food supplies in the subdivisions. Military personnel is equipped with old-style protective gear, which leads to numerous casualties.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

On October 10, ships of the Black Sea Fleet took part in a massive missile attack on the territory of Ukraine. About 20 Caliber missiles were fired from the sea area south of the cape of Fiolent (Crimea). For this purpose, on the morning of October 10, two more surface ships went to sea, bringing the number of missile carriers up to 8. After the volley, part of the ships returned to the base, and other ships went to sea.

Currently, 16 enemy warships and boats are on a mission in the Black Sea, conducting reconnaissance and controlling navigation. Six of them are Kalibr missile carriers with 48 missiles ready for a volley. Therefore, the rocket threat against Ukraine remains high. The next massive attack is expected on the night of October 11. The bombing of the Ukrainian territory was carried out in coordination with Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic aircraft, which fired Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles while flying over the Caspian Sea.

The Russian military continues shelling Ukrainian ports and coastal areas. On the night of October 10, the Russian forces attacked Odesa Seaport and Kyiv River port with “Shahid 136” kamikaze drones. Most of them were shot down by air defense.

“Grain initiative”: Additional measures that can be taken to speed up the shipment of grain became the topic of conversation between Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov and Minister of National Defense of Turkey Hulusi Akar. During the conversation, there was an exchange of views regarding the grain shipment; additional measures to speed up grain shipments were assessed. The ministers expressed their satisfaction with the work of the Joint Coordination Center. Minister Kubrakov noted on his Facebook page that Ukraine had increased agricultural product exports by land and waterways.

“Last month, Ukrainian farmers exported 6.9 million tons of food. This is a record figure since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion. Compared to August, we increased the volume of agricultural exports by 41%,” Kubrakov wrote. He noted that the operation rate of the unblocked ports of Greater Odesa continues to increase. “In September, we increased the agricultural exports more than twice, to 3.8 million tons, and the number of ships for loading by 2.5 times, to

168 ships per month. Such indicators show that business trusts the “grain initiative” and is ready to intensify its participation in its implementation,” the minister said.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 10.10

Personnel – almost 62,870 people (+370);

Tanks 2,495 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,149 (+16);

Artillery systems – 1,486 (+9);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 353 (+5); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 181 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,908 (+18); Aircraft – 267 (+1);

Helicopters – 235 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,097 (+11); Intercepted cruise missiles – 249 (+2);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The attack on the energy system of Ukraine, carried out by Russia in the morning of October 10, is the largest since the beginning of the war. The invaders struck the entire power supply chain, stated the Minister of Energy German Galushchenko “the entire supply chain was hit to make it difficult to reconnect and provide electricity from other sources,” the minister said. He emphasized that the restoration of damaged objects is already underway, and power supply has already been restored in some areas. Galushchenko also urged Ukrainians to reduce electricity consumption during peak hours.

Since October 11, Ukraine has suspended the export of electricity to stabilize its energy system, the Ministry of Energy reported on Facebook. It is noted that Russia continues to carry out energy terror against Ukraine and also increases energy pressure on the European Union. Thus, the export of electricity from Ukraine helped Europe reduce Russian energy resource consumption.

Consumer prices rose by 1.9% in September, State Statistics Service reported. Inflation on the consumer market in September 2022 compared to August 2022 was 1.9%, since the beginning of the year – 21.8%, compared to September 2021 – 24.6%.

International diplomatic aspect

Russia unleashes the most significant missile attacks against Ukraine in months, firing as many as eighty-four cruise and ballistic missiles and twenty-four UAVs worth $400-700 million. The brutal Russian attacks were similar to the ones the Nazis committed in 1944-1945. There were 10,386 launches of the V1 cruise missile against the UK in general and the most densely populated areas of London in particular. The attacks cast the lives of as many as 6,000 Britons. The primary goal was to break the will to resist. But, as we know, the Nazis have failed.

Vladimir Putin justified the attack by accusing Ukraine of various “terrorist” activities, including blowing up the Kerch bridge. He threatened Ukraine with a proportional response should Ukraine repeat “terrorist” acts on “Russian” territory. However, the Russian missile attack can hardly be called proportioned and justified from the military point of view. Given that several missiles hit crowded areas, killing civilians, and the other ones hit energy and communication infrastructure, it’s Russia that yet again committed a terrorist act.

There are three aims of the attack. First, Vladimir Putin had to please Russian fanatics and hawks in his surroundings. After failing to achieve significant progress in his military adventure and several humiliating defeats on the battleground, there was growing dissatisfaction with military and political leadership. In the heavily censored country, public figures were allowing themselves to criticize even their supreme chieftain. The hawks were calling on Putin to stop being “soft” and unleash the full power of the Russian military. But, given the lost ability to turn to an offensive on the battlefield, the only remaining option was to hit the “soft” targets – civilian infrastructure and civilian population.

Secondly, the Kremlin believes that it’s still possible to break the Ukrainian will to resist. A disinformation campaign accompanied the strikes about the “outrage” of Ukrainians with their military and political leadership and false claims that the President of Ukraine fled the country. Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy published a video address to compatriots, filmed in front of his office in Kyiv’s center. In fact, he just captured the thoughts and feelings of all Ukrainians supporting the struggle against pure evil. The essence of the message is that the Nation will not give up.

“Hitler’s blitzkrieg on the innocent Brits strengthened their resolve,” twitted Senator Dick Durbin. “Putin’s mass strike on innocent Ukrainians will do the same. The hottest ring in Hell has Putin’s name on the door.” He was right. Instead of fear and despair, Ukrainians launched a donation campaign to support the Armed Forces. As many as $6.1 million were gathered from dusk till dawn.

Thirdly, the terrorist attack aimed to deter Ukraine’s partners from stepping up security assistance. “These attacks only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside our allies and partners, we will continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom,” stated the President of the United States. “The indiscriminate targeting of civilians is a war crime… The EU remains firmly committed to supporting Ukraine in political, financial, military, and humanitarian terms as well as with reconstruction and covering winter preparedness needs,” proclaimed the President of the European Council. Germany will deliver the first IRIS-T air defence system in the coming days.

It remains to be seen whether cruelty and brutality of the criminal act would change fear-of- escalation self-restrain strategy in Berlin and Washington DC. While the Americans aren’t willing
to provide Ukraine with long-range capabilities (ATACMS), the Germans find various excuses to provide no modern battle tanks or infantry fighting vehicles.

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