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Humanitarian aspect:

According to the data of the Oblast military administrations (OMA), 10 civilians were killed and 14 injured in Ukraine as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation on October 15. 9 Ukrainian oblasts came under Russian shelling.

Russian forces continue shelling Ukrainian cities, killing people and damaging civilian infrastructure.

• Two schools were ruined in Zaporizhzhia Oblast [by Russian shelling] on the night of October 16. One in the village of Vozdvyzhivka and one in Dobropillya, of Polohy district, the head of Zaporizhzhia OMA Oleksandr Starukh said.
• On the evening of October 16, Russian forces again struck the Marganets community in the Nikopol district with MLRS. According to preliminary data, no one was injured. A 47- year-old man was wounded in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Almost 30 high-rise and private buildings, 13 commercial buildings, an industrial enterprise, cars, several gas pipelines and power lines were damaged in the city.
• In Sumy Oblast, part of one of the territorial communities was left without electricity due to the Russian shelling, Dmytro Zhivytskyi, the head of the Sumy OMA, reported. As of 18:00 on October 16, 2,151 customers remain without electricity.
• Over the past day, Russian troops attacked 7 towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast. 20 civilian objects were destroyed and damaged – 14 residential buildings, a kindergarten, a medical facility, the territory of a food industry enterprise, cars, and a garage. Bakhmut continues to get hit by the Russian artillery. During the day, the Russian forces shelled the city five times, killing and wounding civilians. As a result of enemy hits, 11 private homes were damaged.

In the liberated Lyman of Donetsk Oblast, the bodies of six more people who died during the occupation by Russian troops were discovered, Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, said.

Occupied territories

Ukraine’s General Staff reports that the Russian occupation authorities are intensifying filtering measures in Kherson Oblast and have begun evacuating so-called “government” institutions. According to available information, banks and pension fund employees and property are being taken from Kherson to the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

The Center of National Resistance, set up by the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reported that Russian occupiers constantly increase security on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, and the number of security posts has increased, which indicates that they feel insecure. It is known that part of the station is controlled by Kadyrov’s gang – SWAT “Akhmat”. It has placed its equipment and weapons directly in turbine halls #1 and #2″. The

center also reports that Russia is trying to connect the Zaporizhzhia NPP to its power grid as soon as possible.

Chechen fighters in Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast, evict local residents from homes so their “officers” can live there. Kadyrov’s people constantly change their housing because they are afraid, the head of Luhansk OMA Serhiy Haidai said. According to him, collaborators inform the invaders about “good” houses.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is mainly on the previous day’s (October 15) developments)

It is the 235th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories. It concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and continues the offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

The Russian military shells the positions of the Ukrainian troops along the entire contact line, fortifies defensive positions and frontiers in certain directions, and conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, it strikes critical infrastructure and residential quarters.

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian forces have launched 5 missile and 23 air strikes and fired 60 MLRS rounds. Civilian targets and residents in more than 40 Ukrainian towns and villages were hit by the Russian fire, including Nikopol and Shakhtarske of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Glushkivka in Kharkiv Oblast, Orihiv and Mali Shcherbaky in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Dmytrivka in Kyiv Oblast, Bilohirka in Kherson Oblast and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. Near the state border, Mykolaivka of Chernihiv Oblast, Pokrovka of Sumy Oblast, Strilecha, Ohirtseve, Staritsa, Gatyshche, Pischane, Kam’yanka and Dvorichna of Kharkiv Oblast were shelled. The threat of missiles and airstrikes and the use of “Shahed-136” attack UAVs from the territory of the Republic of Belarus persists.

The aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 32 strikes over the past day. Hits on 24 areas of enemy weapons and military equipment concentration and on 8 Russian anti-aircraft missile systems are confirmed. In addition, Ukrainian air defense units shot down 6 Russian UAVs and 1 helicopter.

Over the past day, Ukrainian missile forces and artillery hit three areas of enemy manpower, weapons and military equipment concentration, and 1 ammunition depot, 7 Russian air defense objects and other military targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The Russian command formed a tactical group of troops (up to 3-4 BTGs) in Belgorod Oblast with a high readiness to be used in Ukraine. The group was formed out of the units of the 61st separate marines brigade of the Northern Fleet, the 138th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 6th Army, and the 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11th Army Corps.

The forces and means of the 29th separated railway brigade (Smolensk) are deployed in the area of Tyotkino, Volfino, and Popovo-Lezhachi (Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation). A separate rifle battalion was formed to perform tasks in the destination area.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian military fired tanks and artillery of various calibers along the entire line of contact, particularly in Bilohorivka, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Novoyehorivka, Rozdolivka, and Serebryanka. Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Torske and Spirne.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the entire contact line.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Berestove, Soledar, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Pobieda and Nevelske.

During the past day, the Russian forces attacked:

• Pokrovske, Bakhmutske with up to 2 platoons of the 2nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps;
• Vesela Dolyna, Ivangrad, Pokrovske, Bakhmut, Stryapivka and Soledar with a detachment of the “Wagner” PMC;
• Berestove, Spirne with a reinforced company of the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps;
• Horlivka, Mayorsk with a platoon of the 131st rifle battalion of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps.

Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed the enemy from Opytne with two counterattacks, knocking them out of several key points near the village.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian forces shelled more than 15 towns and villages, including Vuhledar, Vremivka, Paraskoviivka, Prechystivka, and Shcherbaky.

Ukrainian Defense Forces’ artillery, with precise strikes

• destroyed an enemy ammunition depot and wounded 20 enemy personnel in Marfopil,

• destroyed 10 units of military equipment and wounded up to 40 enemy personnel in Tokmak,
  • wounded up to 30 enemy personnel in Pology,
  • destroyed 7 units of military equipment and wounded about 40 enemy personnel in Kamyanets-Dniprovskiy

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

Areas around more than 25 towns and villages along the contact line suffered artillery fire damage.

The Russian military employed the reinforced company of the 247th parachute airborne regiment of the 7th air assault division in an attempt to attack in the direction of Kostromka – Sukhy Stavok. However, when they attacked from the starting line, they came under Ukrainian artillery fire, suffered losses, and were forced to withdraw.

The Russian military units of the 205th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 49th Army withdrew to the defense area near the village of Chkalove (up to two motorized rifle companies). Enemy units, which previously held defense in the area of Ishchenko, also retreat to the same area.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

In the open sea, the Russian naval group has decreased. Six enemy ships and boats remain along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them are 2 cruise missile carriers, namely two corvettes of project 21631 carrying a total of up to 10 missiles.

In the Sea of Azov waters, patrol ships and boats are located on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 8 Su-27, Su-30, and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

The “Grain Initiative”: on October 16, 4 vessels with 140,000 tons of Ukrainian agricultural products left the ports of “Odesa” and “Pivdenny” for the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe. Among them is the bulk carrier EAUBONNE, which will deliver 53,300 tons of wheat to Kenya. This is the second bulker going to this country. The first SUPER HENRY bulk carrier with 51,400 tons of wheat was unloaded in the port of Mombasa (Kenya) today.

Since the launch of the Grain Initiative, 1.1 million tons of food have been sent to Africa. In particular, 5 ships chartered by the United Nations World Food Program have already left the ports of Greater Odesa. They have more than 120,000 tons of grain on board for the residents of Ethiopia, Yemen and Somalia.

On October 16, Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov met with Minister of Defense of Turkey Hulusi Akar at the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul. The focus of the negotiations is the implementation of the “Grain Initiative” and its extension after November 22, 2022.

The participating parties of the “Initiative” – the UN, Turkey, and Ukraine – expressed their readiness to continue its operation and assured that they would make maximum efforts for its successful implementation. Currently, there is no doubt that the “grain corridor” work will continue after November 22.

Also, during the meeting, the Ukrainian side emphasized the importance of speeding up the ship inspection process by the Joint Coordination Center. Therefore, it will be possible to significantly increase the volume of grain exports to the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe, as well as prevent the formation of queues at inspections.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 16.10

Personnel – almost 65,000 people (+300);

Tanks 2,529 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,193 (+14);

Artillery systems – 1,589 (+7);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 365 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 186 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,959 (+8); Aircraft – 268 (0);

Helicopters – 242 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,224 (+14);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 316 (0);

Boats / ships – 15 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Arup Banerjee, the World Bank’s regional director for Eastern Europe, estimates that twenty- five percent of Ukraine’s population will live in poverty by the end of the year, compared to just over 2% before the war, and that figure could rise to 55% by the end of next year. Banerjee adds that the winter period can be especially difficult for Ukrainians. Ruined homes and missing critical infrastructure could trigger another wave of internal migration for the winter.

Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, believes that for Russia, the war has reached the stage of strategic zugzwang, i.e. when each move makes the situation worse and brings it closer to an end. He cited the fleeing of 500 thousand of Russian citizens and political destabilization, international support for Ukraine, increased readiness of NATO, risk of losing China and India as strategic partners, and the rise of a unified Ukrainian nation as facts supporting his thesis.

International diplomatic aspect

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has not and will not provide any weapon to be used in the war in Ukraine,” said the Iranian Foreign Minister. The top Iranian diplomat does not care that his opponents know he is lying. Beyond the intelligence sources, the UAF has already downed Iranian-made kamikaze drones out of the Ukrainian skies. The Washington Post reports that in addition to UAV supply, the Mullahs’ regime secretly agreed to provide Russia with Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles with a range of 300 and 700 km. Being squeezed by sanctions and having wasted up to two-thirds of missiles and rockets’ stockpiles, Russians found their ability to replenish precision-guided weapons diminished. Pretending to be a mighty military power, Russia has been conducting meaningless, from a military point of view, bombardments of the Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.

The Western export control policies work pretty well. Last week’s meeting of the US Treasure with some three dozen affiliated institutions to coordinate their activities in fighting restrictions and sanctions evasion is a step in the right direction in the long run.

However, the Iran-Russia deal poses a great danger in the near future. The West should study the option of blocking the dangerous shipment’s delivery.

The US might also reconsider its self-imposed limitation on certain weapons it can provide Ukraine with, i.e., ATACMS, naval UAVs, etc. Though the recent Ramstein meeting was dedicated to the issue of boosting Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, it showed that it requires too much precious time. Instead of watching civilians’ indiscriminate and deliberate targeting [by Russians], it makes sense to provide UAF with capabilities to eliminate the platforms for those missiles and rockets.

For the first time, an acting Israeli minister calls on the government to send security aid to Ukraine. “This morning it was reported that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Russia. There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as well, just as the USA and NATO countries provide,” twitted Nachman Shai. It’s high time for Israel to start supporting Ukraine’s existential struggle.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was a lone voice in the “traffic-light” government arguing for sending weapons to Ukraine, which it had asked Germany for. But now, she sides with the Chancellor and his no-tanks-for-Ukraine policy. She says that the tanks issue isn’t pressing now, but air defense is. In the meantime, she says that Ukraine receives tanks by the swap scheme (Germany sends modern tanks to allies while they send Soviet/Russian tanks to Ukraine) and from Russians, who have been the leading supplier of tanks so far (Ukraine captured about 400 Russian tanks).

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