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CDS Daily brief (18.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of October 18, 2022, more than 1,240 Ukrainian children are victims of full- scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who died and were wounded during the Russian aggression is 425, and more than 815 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories. According to the state child search portal “Children of War,” as of October 18, 251 children considered missing, 8,276 — deported, and 6,741 — found.

The bodies of 5 murdered children were exhumed in Lyman. Investigators found four children in a mass burial at the cemetery. Another boy was buried by the mother in her own yard. The National Police preliminary established that all of them died due to Russian shelling [of the shrapnel wounds]. After the examinations, the children will be reburied.

At night and in the morning, the Russians again struck several Oblasts of Ukraine.

At night, Russia shelled Mykolaiv with S-300 missiles. A two-story building was hit, and one person died. Five Shahed-136 drones were shot down. Two series of explosions were recorded in Kharkiv in the morning. Around 06:30 in the morning, the Russians struck the northern part of Kryvyi Rih.

Kyiv was attacked in the morning; two critical infrastructure objects were damaged, and work continues to eliminate the consequences. 3 hits at the power supply facility in Kyiv’s Left Bank district were confirmed. Three people have died; all of them were employees of the affected critical infrastructure facility, confirmed Kyiv’s mayor Vitaliy Klitschko. There were interruptions in the electricity and water supply on the Left Bank of the capital; people were queuing for drinking water. Emergency power outages were possible in other areas of the city. However, just in 2 hours, energy specialists restored electricity supply to 2,108 households using a backup power supply.

The death toll has risen to 5 after yesterday’s kamikaze drone attack on Kyiv. The body of another deceased resident – an elderly woman – was found under the rubble of the building, said Vitaliy Klitschko.

The enemy fired two rockets at the energy infrastructure in Dnipro. Due to severe damage, some areas of Dnipro, Sinelnykove and Vasylkovka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) were left without electricity. In addition, one of the Dnipro water canal pumping stations has been disconnected from the energy supply, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko, said. During the night of October 18-19, the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was shelled from “Grady” and heavy artillery.

The Russians hit an energy supply facility in Zhytomyr with two missiles. The city’s mayor reported no electricity or water supply after Russian missile attacks on the energy infrastructure. In addition, the Zhytomyr Oblast Military administration said that 11 towns and villages of the Zhytomyr Oblast were temporarily left without electricity.

Today, Russian aircraft attacked Ukrainian cities from the Rostov region. Such a maneuver leaves less time for air defense forces to react compared to an attack from the Caspian Sea, the command of the Ukrainian Air Force explained a large number of hits on infrastructure facilities this morning.

Over the past week (October 10 -18), 408 infrastructure objects were subjected to Russian attacks and destruction, of which more than 45 were energy infrastructure objects. In addition, 180 residential buildings were damaged, the press service of the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development said. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that since October 10, 30% of [Ukraine’s] power plants had been destroyed due to Russian strikes, which led to massive power outages throughout the country.

Ukrainian energy company DTEK warned of possible power outages. Due to morning strikes on the energy infrastructure, power outages are possible in Kyiv and the Dnipro. Ukrainians are asked to charge phones and power banks and limit the use of energy-intensive appliances: boilers, washing machines, heaters and air conditioners.

Occupied territories:

Russian invaders once again abducted employees of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, Energoatom reports. Yesterday, October 17, Russian [occupation authorities] detained Oleh Kostyukov, head of the ZNPP information technology service, and Oleh Osheka, deputy general director of the plant, and took them in an unknown direction. Until now, nothing is known about their condition and whereabouts. Energoatom appealed to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and the entire world community to make every effort and take all possible measures to free ZNPP workers from the captivity of Russian terrorists.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is mainly on the previous day’s (October 17) developments)

It is the 237th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories. It concentrates on disrupting the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, and continues offensive attempts in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

The Russian military shells the positions of the Ukrainian troops along the entire contact line, fortifies defensive positions and frontiers in certain directions, and conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and

customs of war, they strike Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and residential quarters. During the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 10 missile and 58 air strikes, and carried out up to 60 rounds of anti-aircraft fire.

During the past day, areas of more than 35 Ukrainian towns and villages, including Kyiv, the towns in Kyiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv Oblasts, were hit by enemy attacks; Bilohorivka, Terny, Krasnohorivka and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast; Nova Kamianka and Biloghirka in Kherson Oblast. The enemy used cruise, aviation and anti-aircraft guided missiles. In addition, Russian troops launched 43 UAVs from southern Ukraine, 37 of which were destroyed by Ukrainian air defense. Most of the UAVs were Iranian Shahed-136. Five “Shahed-136” drones struck objects in the Shevchenkiv district of Kyiv, particularly the “Ukrenergo” building.

Near the state border, the enemy shelled with the artillery of various types Senkivka in Chernihiv Oblast; Seredyna-Buda, Dmytrivka in Sumy Oblast; Khatnie, Starytsia, and Strilecha in Kharkiv Oblast.

The threat of missile and airstrikes and the use of “Shahed-136” attack UAVs from the territory of the Republic of Belarus remains.

The aviation of Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out 22 strikes during the past day. The hits on 18 areas of enemy concentration of weapons and military equipment, a stronghold point, and three positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems were confirmed. Ukrainian air defense units shot down 3 cruise missiles. In addition, Ukraine’s missile troops and artillery hit the command and control post, the area of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, two air defense and artillery targets, one ammunition depot and other enemy military targets.

On October 16, The Washington Post reported that Iran would supply Russia with additional missiles, including Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles, in addition to Shahed- 136, Mohajer-6 and Arash-2 UAVs.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps,

2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy attack in the area of Berestove. The Russian troops with various types of artillery shelled the Ukrainian Defence Forces’ positions in Bilohorivka, Grekivka, Zarichne, Nadiya, Novoehorivka, and Terny. Near Terny, the enemy also used attack UAVs.

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to attack northwestern Svatovo; in the Kupyansk region, they are preparing to advance eastward to Nizhnia Duvanka.

Russian troops are increasing the engineering equipment of their line Svatove – Kreminna – Lysychansk. They carried local counterattacks west of Kreminna with the aim of returning the lost territory between Lyman and Kreminna, and tried an unsuccessful attack at Torske.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

With mortars, barrel and jet artillery, the enemy fired at Ukrainian positions in the areas of Berestove, Hryanykivka, Dvorichna, Kotlyarivka, Serebryanka and Stelmakhivka.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy inflicted fire damage from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery along the contact line and unsuccessfully attacked Bakhmutske, Ivangrad, Klishchiivka, Pervomaiske and Maryinka of the Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut and Bakhmutske, Soledar, Berestove, and Spirne, near Mayorsk, south of Avdiyivka in the area of Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, Nevelske, Vodyane, Novomykhailivka.

Russian troops stormed Ukrainian positions near Opytne and repelled a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions north of Bakhmut in the direction of Striapivka.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled more than 15 towns and villages, including Biloghirya, Bogoyavlenka, Vuhledar, Malynivka, Orihiv and Shevchenko.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces struck Russian personnel and military equipment concentration near Marfopol, Tokmak, Polohy, Kamianka-Dniprovska, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Voskresenka, and Vasylivka, and the concentration of Russian personnel and equipment near Molochansk, Energodar, Orikhiv, and Hulyaipole.

Russian troops continued artillery, aviation, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole and on the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Nikopol.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne

division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian troops shelled military and civilian infrastructure. Areas of more than 20 towns and villages along the contact line were damaged by fire. The enemy made more than 30 UAV sorties to conduct aerial reconnaissance.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces tried to advance south from the Nova Kamianka – Dudchany frontier toward Mylove and Pyatykhatky and break through the Russian defenses in the Davydiv Brid area. They destroyed two Russian ammunition warehouses and an air defense facility near Beryslav.

Russian troops continue to restore crossings across the river near Kherson, equipped a barge bridge near the Antoniv bridge.

The Russian occupiers are building fortifications by looting the local population, violating all norms of international humanitarian law, laws and customs of war. Thus, in Blahodatne, they [forcibly] take building materials and metal constructions from private households of civilians to equip their position.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

In the open sea, the Russian naval group consists of 6 ships and boats located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them are two carriers of cruise missiles – two corvettes of project 21631 with 16 “Caliber” missiles.

In the waters of the Sea of Azov, enemy patrol ships and boats are on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 Su-27, Su-30 and Su-24 aircraft were deployed from Belbek and Saki airfields.

The enemy continues shelling Ukrainian ports and coastal areas. On the night of October 18, the enemy again shelled Odesa, Mykolaiv and other places in southern Ukraine with “Shahed-136” kamikaze drones and S-300 air defense missiles. Also, on the morning of October 17, the enemy attacked Ukraine with two Kalibr missiles from a ship from the sea area near Crimea.

Due to the repair of the Crimean Bridge, there was a massive accumulation of cargo waiting to be crossed through the Kerch Strait. The waiting time in the queue is 4-6 days, depending on the direction and weather conditions. The enemy is studying alternative logistics methods for supplying its grouping of troops in the Kherson Oblast through the occupied Azov region, with the main hub in Melitopol.

The Turkish military conducted tests of a short-range ballistic missile over the Black Sea. The rocket was launched on Tuesday, October 18, at around 7:00 a.m. from a mobile platform from an airport near the port city of Rize. According to the publication’s sources, the rocket flew 561 km and fell into the Black Sea near the coast near Sinop.

Secret development of the missiles, called Typhoon in Turkish, has been going on for several years, sources say. At the same time, the representative office of the Ministry of Defense, which controls the development of the country’s weapons, refused to disclose any information about the project.

“Grain Initiative”: The bulk carrier PANGEO, which will deliver 40,000 tons of wheat to the people of Yemen, is already the 6th vessel chartered by the World Food Program (WFP) of the United Nations as part of helping countries fight the food crisis. The first 5 ships delivered more than 120,000 tons of wheat to Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, 51,400 tons of Ukrainian wheat is being unloaded from the SUPER HENRY bulker in Kenya. This is the first vessel among those that have already exported wheat for the needs of this country. “For us, it remains a priority to provide African and Asian countries with Ukrainian grain and oil. To date, more than

4.3 million tons of food have been exported to the countries of these continents. Saturating the market with Ukrainian agricultural products is what we can and are doing to prevent a food crisis in the world. Under the current conditions, all port services are working at full capacity with the aim of prompt loading of grain carriers and tankers,” commented Deputy Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Yuriy Vaskov. In addition, today, as part of the “Grain Initiative”, 4 more ships with almost 50,000 tons of food for Asian countries left the ports of Greater Odesa. During the 2.5 months of operation of the “grain corridor”, 353 ships already exported more than 7.8 million tons of agricultural products.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 18.10

Personnel – almost 65,850 people (+350);

Tanks 2,548 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,219 (+14);

Artillery systems – 1,622 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 372 (+6); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 188 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,985 (+16); Aircraft – 268 (0);

Helicopters – 242 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,276 (+35); Intercepted cruise missiles – 318 (+2);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Ukrainian parliament, Verkhovna Rada, recognized the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria as temporarily occupied by Russia and condemned the genocide of the Chechen people. Two hundred eighty-seven deputies voted “yay”.

The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, submitted a proposal to cut diplomatic relations with Iran to the president due to Russia’s use of Iranian drones against the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. Kuleba also added that Tehran is responsible for destroying relations with Ukraine. Furthermore, a draft law on breaking diplomatic relations with Iran and recognizing it as a sponsor of terrorism has been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada. Also, Ukraine would appeal to international institutions to recognize Iran as a terrorist state and strengthen sanctions.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs refuted Russian allegations about foreign diplomatic missions departing Kyiv. “Now, there are many false allegations about the functioning of foreign diplomatic missions. Mostly, they are made by Russian sources in order to sow panic. The latest example is the sudden “closure” of the Serbian embassy, which actually left Kyiv back in March,” the diplomat noted. “No embassy has reported intentions to leave Ukraine,” he said. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs perceives the recommendations of the embassies of China and Egypt regarding the departure of citizens of these countries from Ukraine as reactions to the massive shelling on October 10.

The Cabinet of Ministers created the Coordination Headquarters for the return to Ukraine of citizens from temporarily occupied territories through third countries.

Ilya Vityuk, the head of the Cyber Security Department of the SBU, announced that more than 100,000 calls from Ukrainians were sent to the chatbot created by the Security Service of Ukraine for reporting on enemy troops, equipment and sabotage reconnaissance group. As a result, they made it possible to destroy hundreds of units of Russian equipment and eliminate several Russian generals due to the courage of ordinary Ukrainians, who risked their lives to take pictures and send information.

International diplomatic aspect

“Another kind of Russian terrorist attacks: targeting (Ukraine’s) energy & critical infrastructure. Since Oct 10, 30 [percent] of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country. No space left for negotiations with Putin’s regime,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy twitted. Moscow has been hitting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with waves of missile and drone strikes.

At the beginning of the war, Russia’s official rhetoric insisted that the Russian Army was targeting “Ukrainian nationalists” and only military targets. Russians, in their manner, blamed all civilian casualties and destruction on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and called Russia’s genocide mass

killings “staged”. Now Moscow doesn’t even bother to cover up its war crimes. According to Article 8(2)(b)(ii) of the 1998 ICC [Rome] Statute, “intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives,” constitutes a war crime in international armed conflicts. By attacks on thermal power plants and other energy infrastructure, Russia intentionally targets civilian objects [far from the frontline], objects that are not military targets. Furthermore, the Kremlin commissioned these attacks with the knowledge that they would result in civilians’ accidental death or injury and damage to civilian objects.

The White House “strongly condemns Russia’s missile strikes,” and the attacks continue “to demonstrate Putin’s brutality,” commented the strikes US President’s spokesperson. She said the United States “will continue to impose costs on Russia, hold them accountable for its war crimes.”

In the coming days, NATO’s Secretary-General announced the delivery of anti-drone air defense systems to Ukraine to counter the threat of multiple Iranian-made kamikaze drones. Germany has already delivered a state-of-the-art IRIS-T air defense system, and the US will soon provide NASAMS. However, the quantity of the promised systems won’t be able to solve the issue of Russian missile attacks. To make things worse, Tehran agreed to provide Moscow with more drones and ballistic missiles that would replenish at least a part of what’s being said, two-thirds of missiles Russia had already fired at Ukraine.

Failing to achieve anything tangible on the battleground, the Kremlin intends to impose enormous suffering on civilians, pushing the government to accept a new status quo (de facto defeat). The US’s self-imposed limitation on the types of weapons supplied to Ukraine and prohibition on targeting the Russian territory is unable to timely provide necessary types of air defense systems in needed quantities, multiplying the cost Ukraine would pay for its sovereignty and independence. Ukraine badly needs means to target platforms (bombers, jets, ground launchers, command and control centers, and alike), which is the only efficient way to deal with missile and drone threats and avoid a humanitarian catastrophe of even more enormous magnitude than we’ve already seen.

Donald Tusk, the leader of Poland’s largest opposition party, called on the ruling party to fully clarify the facts surrounding a scandal that cost his party elections related to illegal wiretapping of top politicians and Russian coal imports. He is convinced that Russia was involved. “I am calling for the establishment of a parliamentary investigative committee so that no one in Poland can speculate that Law and Justice’s power was, in fact, installed by the Russian services,” the politician said. Meanwhile, Germany’s head of the national cybersecurity agency has been dismissed following reports of his possible ties to Russian intelligence. In addition, meta recently reported shutting down a large Russia-operated network operating since May that has been distributing anti-Ukraine content across several European countries — including Germany, France, Italy, the UK, and Ukraine. Russia’s malign activities, traditional and cyber espionage, and influence operations remain a severe security threat to the free world countries that require a more aggressive approach.

Russia, relevant news

After yesterday’s fall of a military plane near a residential building in Yeysk, Russia, 15 people died, including 3 children – the Russian sources reported. Russian companies began to receive up to 40% of defective microchips from China; earlier, the share of unusable microchips was about 2%, Kommersant reports. The reason is the termination of the official cooperation of foreign distributors with Russian partners and, as a result, the import of electronics and components through unofficial suppliers.

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