CDS Daily brief (19.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

20.10.2022
Опубліковано: CDS
Категорія: DailyBrief

Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of October 19, 2022, more than 1,243 Ukrainian children are victims of full- scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who died and were wounded during the Russian aggression is 428, and more than 815 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.

Human Rights Watch interviewed over 100 [Ukranian] victims that were brutally tortured, including being beaten with electric currents or hands, gun butts, metal pipes, rubber hoses and other objects. Survivors identified at least seven locations in Izyum, including two schools, where they said soldiers detained and abused people. All interviewees, the Russian invaders detained, said that the Russians stole things from them, including money, jewelry, electronics, and cars. “Our findings indicate that Russian forces have committed horrific abuses in many of the areas they have occupied, and there are real concerns about similar abuses in other areas they continue to control,” said Belkis Wille, senior crisis and conflict researcher at Human Rights Watch, UkrInform reports. He also added that the brutal violence and ill-treatment of the detained residents of Izyum by the Russian military “were not random incidents.” “Several victims shared with us credible accounts of similar experiences of torture during interrogations at facilities controlled by Russian forces and their subordinates, indicating that such treatment was part of policy and plan,” he said.

Russian forces again attacked Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure during the night and the day of October 19.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russians shelled Avdiivka, Maryinka, Katerynivka, Soledarsk, Chasovoyarsk and Toretsk communities. A high-rise building and 3 private houses were damaged in Paraskoviivka.

At night, the enemy attacked a critical infrastructure facility in one of the villages of Zaporizhzhia Oblast with S-300 missiles. The Russians were shelling Orihiv for more than 7 hours; 8 wounded civilians were reported. The deputy mayor of Orihiv, Svitlana Mandrych, said that the humanitarian headquarters stopped its work. “There is no electricity, water, or communication. Everything is broken,” she wrote. According to Mandrych, utility companies are unable to perform their work. Private houses, the city council building, and a school were damaged.

On the night of October 18-19, the occupiers opened fire from barrel artillery on the Seredyno- Budsk community in Sumy Oblast; 12 impacts were reported.

Ukrainian air defense forces shot down two missiles in the sky over Chernihiv Oblast, Operational Command “North” reported. As a result of strikes by Iranian drones on Chernihiv, three people were injured, 2 of them are in intensive care.

Russians attempted to strike Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, with missiles and drones. The air strike alarm lasted for 3 hours and 31 minutes. Air defense shot down all Russian missiles over Kyiv; no damage has been recorded.

The Russian missile hit the energy infrastructure object in the Vinnytsia Oblast, Vinnytsia military administration reported.

Russian occupiers hit the Burshtynsk TPP in the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (west of Ukraine). There were no victims, but a fire broke out, the head of the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast Military Administration, Svitlana Onyshchuk, reported.

Russian troops fired at ambulances in the de-occupied Dvorichansk community in Kharkiv Oblast. The Center for Emergency Medical Aid and Disaster Medicine of the Kharkiv Regional Council reported that the State Emergency Service employees were injured during the shelling.

99% of the population was evacuated from Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk Oblast, reported the press service of the National Police.

In Zhytomyr, due to the Russian shelling of an energy facility, large enterprises cannot operate, and electric transport does not run, Mayor Serhiy Sukhomlyn announced at a meeting of the executive committee of the Zhytomyr City Council.

The Ukrainian government announced that on October 20, electricity supply would be limited throughout Ukraine. “From 7:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m. it is necessary to minimize electricity use. This applies to residents of all regions of the country. If this is not done, you should prepare for temporary shutdowns,” Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, announced. Street lighting will be limited in cities. Outages will be alternating – oblast energy companies would determine the duration of the blackouts to no more than 4 hours.

Occupied territories:

Russia-installed head of the Kherson Administration, Volodymyr Saldo, announced that entry for civilians to the Kherson Oblast is closed for 7 days. All “institutions” and “ministries” of the occupational administration are moving to the left bank of the Dnieper. Kherson collaborators are going to deport 50-60 thousand people.

The legally-elected Ukrainian head of the Kherson Oblast Military administration asks the residents of the temporarily occupied region to ignore the calls of the Russian invaders for the so-called evacuation, “Ignore everything that the occupiers tell you or demand from you.” Yaroslav Yanushevich noted that the invaders and collaborators want to take people hostage and use them as a “human shield”. He stressed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not destroy

Ukrainian cities and villages. Our army hits only the enemy army, its equipment, command posts, warehouses and logistics.

Petro Kotin, president of Energoatom NAEC, said that about 50 Zaporizhzhia NPP employees are currently in Russian captivity. In a comment to AFP, Kotin noted that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, the Russians had detained about 150 employees of Zaporizhzhia NPP. “Some of them were later released, but there are also those whose fate is still unknown,” he said.

In Mariupol, temporarily occupied by the Russian military, the invaders dismantled the monument to the Victims of the Holodomor, Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, reported on Telegram. The monument was erected in 2004 in the city center. It is symbolic that it was located opposite the drama theater, which became a symbol of the Russian war crimes in Mariupol. Ukraine’s Minister of Culture and Information Policy, Oleksandr Tkachenko, reacted to the dismantling of the monument to the victims of the Holodomor as an indication of the legal succession of the current Kremlin regime for [Soviet] crimes against the Ukrainian people. The minister reminded that next month, Ukraine will observe the Memorial Day of the victims of the Holodomor of 1932‒1933 – the genocide of the Ukrainian people, carried out by the Soviet leadership through the organization of artificial mass famine.

The Russians shelled Energodar (occupied by the Russians satellite city of the Zaporizhzhya NPP); the electricity and water supply was disrupted.

“Martial law” [announced by Putin] creates an excuse to export Ukrainian cultural heritage to the Russian Federation. First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Emine Dzhaparova calls on UNESCO and partners to condemn the so-called “martial law” declared by Putin in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, which endangers cultural heritage and creates a reason for the removal of objects. The first deputy minister also noted that Russia grossly violates international agreements as a state party to the Hague Convention on the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of an Armed Conflict of 1954 and the First Protocol to the Convention.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is mainly on the previous day’s (October 18) developments)

It is the 238th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories. It concentrates on disrupting the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, and continues offensive attempts in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

During the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled the enemy attacks in the Ohirtseve and Dvorichna of the Kharkiv Oblast; Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast; Novokalynove,

Mayorsk, Odradivka, New York, Novomykhailivka, Nevelske, Opytne and Maryinka of the Donetsk Oblast.

The enemy is shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops along the contact line. The Russian troops are fortifying their defensive positions and lines in some directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance. Violating the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure.

During the past day, the enemy launched 10 missile and 18 air strikes and carried out more than 76 attacks from rocket systems.

Areas of more than 10 Ukrainian towns and villages, including Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kurakhove of the Donetsk Oblast, Trykhaty of the Mykolaiv Oblast, and Mykolaiv, were hit by the enemy. For this, the enemy used cruise, aviation and anti-aircraft guided missiles. In addition, the invaders used 14 “Shahed-136” UAVs, and the Ukraine Defense Forces shot down 10 of them. In the border areas, Gai in Chernihiv Oblast, Yunakivka, Khotyn, Tovstodubove, Demchenkove in Sumy Oblast, Vovchanski Khutory, Volohivka, Gatyshche, Krasne, Ohirtseve, Starytsia, Strilecha and Khatne in Kharkiv Oblast were shelled with mortars and barrel artillery.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine; the threat of missile and air strikes and the launch of the “Shahed-136” attack UAV from its territory remains.

The enemy continues to destroy Ukrainian cultural heritage in the temporarily occupied territories, loot museums, and burn Ukrainian literature and textbooks printed in Ukrainian.

The aviation of Defense Forces of Ukraine carried out 24 strikes during the previous day. The impact on 16 areas of concentration of enemy weapons and military equipment, a stronghold point, and 8 positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems was confirmed. In addition, Ukrainian air defense units shot down 5 cruise missiles and a Su-25 aircraft.

Ukraine’s missile troops and artillery struck four enemy command and control points, 5 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 2 air defense and one artillery objects, 2 ammunition warehouses, an electronic warfare station, and other enemy military targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low. According to the available information, there are significant problems in the Russian Federation with payments to military personnel who participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. Payments of monetary allowances are being delayed. Relatives of the KIA cannot receive the promised compensation.

Kharkiv direction

Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired from tanks, barrel and rocket artillery at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Berestove, Dvorichna, Hryanykivka, Kamianka, Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka and Stelmakhivka.

Kramatorsk direction

Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy fired with the artillery of various types at the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Grekivka, Zarichne, Novoyehorivka, Serebryanka, Terny, Torske, and Yampolivka.

Donetsk direction

Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery at the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Zvanivka, Kurdyumivka, Mayorsk, Opytne, Rozdolivka, Soledar, Spirne, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Karlivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.

Zaporizhzhia direction

Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar, Vremivka, Mykilske, Neskuchne, Pavlivka, Olhivske, Stepove and Prechystivka.

Tavriysk direction

Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;
Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy is trying to improve logistical support and carried out artillery shelling in the areas of more than 20 towns and villages along the contact line. The infrastructure of Vyshchetarasivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, suffered the most from enemy fire.

The occupiers are taking measures to covertly move military equipment and personnel. For this purpose, in Tavriysk and Nova Kakhovka of the Kherson Oblast, the enemy is blocking the work of mobile operators and the Internet.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

The number of the Russian naval group in the open sea is 10 ships and boats located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them are two cruise missile carriers (project 21631 corvette and 636.3 submarine), with a total of 12 Kalibr missiles. Since October 10, the enemy intensified the use of Kalibr missiles from the ships of the Russian Navy; during this period, about 30 missiles were fired at Ukraine.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 12 Su-27, Su-30 and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

The enemy continues shelling Ukrainian ports and coastal areas. On the night of October 19, the enemy again attacked Mykolaiv and other regions in southern Ukraine with “Shahed-136” kamikaze drones. The Air Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down 13 drones. In total, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 223 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. The first “Shahed” was destroyed on September 13 in Kupyansk. The kamikaze drones were destroyed by Ukraine’s anti-aircraft missile units, fighter jets, self-propelled anti-aircraft installations, mobile fire groups with portable anti-aircraft missile systems, anti-aircraft artillery and large-caliber machine guns detachments, and ordinary military personnel with machine guns.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister, “a curator” of the occupied Crimea, Marat Khusnullin, said that trucks carrying up to 40 tons [of cargo] could currently pass through the Kerch bridge. Husnullin also noted that the two destroyed spans of the bridge are planned to be dismantled by the end of December 2022. The day before, the bus traffic was opened on the Kerch bridge. Russian Mass media reported huge queues at the entrance to the damaged traffic crossing.

On Wednesday morning, October 19, the occupation administration of Crimea announced the downing of a drone in the area of the Belbek airfield north of Sevastopol. “In Sevastopol, the air defense system worked again in the North side area. According to preliminary data, a drone was shot down near the Belbek airfield,” the so-called governor of the city, Mykhailo Razvozhaev, said. Later, he added that the drone’s wreckage fell on a residential building in the garden organisation, but “a small fire was quickly extinguished.”

“Grain initiative”: Today, October 19, 6 ships with 86.7 thousand tons of agricultural products left the ports of “Odesa”, “Chornomorsk” and “Pivdenny” for the countries of Asia and Europe. Bulk carrier KEMAL KURU departed from Odesa port, ALMIRANTE STORNI, CS CALVINA from Chornomorsk, and bulk carriers KUBROSLI-Y, DAYTONA-H and tanker DENSA DEFNE from Pivdenny port. Since the departure of the first ship with Ukrainian food, 7.9 million tons of food have been exported.

A total of 360 ships left Ukrainian ports with agricultural products, which were sent to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 19.10

Personnel – almost 66,280 people (+430);

Tanks – 2,554 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,235 (+16);

Artillery systems – 1,637 (+15);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 372 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 189 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 3,999 (+14); Aircraft – 269 (+1);

Helicopters – 242 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,286 (+10); Intercepted cruise missiles – 323 (+5);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Martial law declared by Putin in the occupied territories of Ukraine is a preparation for the mass deportation of Ukrainians, Oleksiy Danylov, Secretary of the NSDC, wrote on Twitter. “Putin’s martial law in the annexed regions is a preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to depressed areas to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory. A crime that the UN should condemn as [the same] which was already committed by Russia in Crimea and remained unpunished,” Danilov emphasized.

President Volodymyr Zelensky held a strategic meeting on security at energy supply facilities. The participants discussed measures to eliminate the consequences in the event of Ukraine’s energy system breakdown. They agreed on the necessary measures in case of a lack of electricity in Ukraine’s cities and villages. Zelensky instructed to create mobile power points for critical infrastructure.

The Verkhovna Rada [Ukraine’s parliament] adopted a law that provides for the creation of the Fund for Liquidation of the Consequences of Armed Aggression as part of a special fund of the state budget. The funds are to be directed to the construction of public buildings, civil protection structures, reconstruction, and overhaul of critical infrastructure facilities and housing for internally displaced persons and people who lost their houses due to the [Russian] military hostilities. According to the [adopted law], the Fund will be filled from the funds received from the forced seizure of property of the Russian Federation and its residents in Ukraine.

As reported, at least Ukraine’s 1,463 housing and communal facilities, 829 educational institutions, 301 medical institutions, and 3,838 residential buildings that were damaged as a result of Russian aggression require immediate restoration.

International diplomatic aspect

Martial law declared by Putin in the occupied territories of Ukraine is a preparation for the mass deportation of Ukrainians, Oleksiy Danylov, Secretary of the NSDC, wrote on Twitter. “Putin’s

martial law in the annexed regions is a preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to depressed areas to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory. A crime that the UN should condemn as [the same] which was already committed by Russia in Crimea and remained unpunished,” Danilov emphasized.

Vladimir Putin held a meeting of the National Security Council. He signed decrees introducing martial law in the illegally occupied territories of Ukraine, raising to medium the reaction level in bordering Ukraine regions of Russia and illegally annexed Crimea and to the level of high preparedness in Central and Southern Federal districts. He also ordered the setting up of a Coordination Committee, to be chaired by the Prime minister.

The Coordination Committee is an “à la russe” response to the government’s inability to support the war efforts. In eight months of the invasion, Russia lost in Ukraine thousands of tanks, IFVs, auxiliary vehicles, hundreds of jets, and helicopters, not to mention some 66,000 soldiers KIA, thus [by conventional culculation] approximately three times WIA/MIA/POWs. The so-called partial mobilization brought in an announced 300,000 men whom the government could not even properly feed and provide with uniforms, bulletproof vests, modern helmets, and light firearms.

So, Putin decided to tighten the grip over the government, which hadn’t been independent of his supervision even before. De facto, this decision means mobilization of the economy. The political

(war) necessity, not an economic one, will guide economic activities. In some Russian regions, military personnel will increase their power in civil governance through participation in coordinating committees with local authorities. The further centralization of the decision-making process won’t be able to improve governance, for it has structural problems as inherent elements of Putin’s system.

The martial law in the occupied territories [of Ukraine] will allow the invaders to conduct total mobilization of Ukrainian citizens into proxy formations (people’s militia/territorial defense etc.). It will also introduce a curfew, limitations on movements from and to the regions, as well as within regions, forced searches of people and premises, and detention for up to 30 days. In addition, the occupiers will introduce the war (total) censorship of media and mass wiretapping of phone conversations, forced labor, and expropriation of private and commercial property.

Russian invading forces and proxy administration of Kherson are conducting a forceful transfer, wrongly called by the Western media as an evacuation, of Ukrainian citizens from the left bank of the Dnipro River in the face of the UAF counteroffensive. Earlier, the commander of the invasion forces said that he had information that the UAF may target the dumb of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, which may flood the right bank. However, there’s no military sense for the UAF to target the dumb, not to mention the possible casualties among civilians and the destruction of infrastructure and properties. Moreover, the city and its outskirts’ topography prove that the left bank would be severely affected if the dumb were destroyed. It’s a worrying sign of possibly planning a false flag operation with enormous casualties. Russia blames the US for blowing up Nord Stream I and II gas pipelines, though likely it was the Kremlin’s false flag operation. It might carry out a destabilization strategy targeting critical infrastructure on the European countries’ territory to shake stability, causing a change of governments and dissuading from supporting Ukraine. While Norwegian security services detained Russian spies eyeing critical infrastructure objects, Germany has strengthened the protection of its LNG terminals under construction and increased aerial supervision of its rail network.

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