CDS Daily brief (22.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of October 22, 2022, more than 1,248 Ukrainian children are victims of full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who died and were wounded during the Russian aggression is 430, and more than 818 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.

During the day, the Russians launched 40 missile strikes and 16 kamikaze drones at the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. 20 cruise missiles and 11 UAVs were shot down, Ukraine’s General Staff reported.

The Russian invaders continue to deprive Ukrainians of energy infrastructure. As a result of the morning enemy shelling, almost one and a half million Ukrainians were left without electricity, the Office of the President stated.

Today’s attack is comparable to or may exceed the consequences of the attack on October 10- 12, “Ukrenergo” [Ukraine’s energy company] stated. “Ukrenergo” experts are restoring the electricity supply as soon as possible in the Ukrainian regions that are currently without electricity. [Energy supply] restrictions were applied in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kirovohrad Oblasts.

The Volyn Oblast (Northwest of Ukraine) energy infrastructure object was destroyed by the impact of three Russian Kh-101 missiles this morning. [Ukrainian utility services] are currently not able to restore it, the Lutsk mayor, Ihor Polishchuk said. In Lutsk [Volyn Oblast’s capital] 12 houses were damaged during the morning rocket attack by the Russians, and all boiler houses temporarily stopped working. According to “Lutskteplo” [energy company], the supply of hot water to the city has been suspended.

A critical infrastructure object in Rivne was hit, Mayor Oleksandr Tretyak reported during the first wave of the Russin morning attack on Ukraine. A large part of the city remains without an energy supply. The air attack sirens did not work due to the lack of electricity and the city switched to the State Emergency Service and patrol police cars moving around the city [with alarm sirens].

Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said air defense forces shot down several missiles in the Kyiv Oblast, heading toward Kyiv.

Uman region in Cherkasy Oblast was without electricity due to a missile hitting an energy facility in the neighboring Oblast, Ihor Taburets, head of the Cherkasy Oblast Military Administration reported.

The Russians launched rocket attacks on important energy facilities in the Kropyvnytskyi and Golovanivsky districts of Kirovograd Oblast, the head of Kirovohrad Oblast Military Administration, Andriy Raikovych, reported.

The enemy made two missile strikes on the object of the energy infrastructure of the Odesa Oblast, disrupting electricity in several communities, the head of Odesa Military Administration Maksym Marchenko reported. 3 injured civilians were reported due to the strikes. The State Emergency Service is now dealing with the elimination of the consequences of the strikes to resume the operation of the power grids as soon as possible.

More than 20 houses and several gas pipelines were damaged in Nikopol during the past night, the head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko, said. According to him, the Russian forces shelled Marganets and Nikopol communities, and Nikopol suffered the most. The enemy hit Nikopol with MLRS and heavy artillery, leaving almost 1,000 families without electricity. Power engineers are already repairing the networks.

Russian troops fired at a playground and a school in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at night, the Head of the Oblast Military Administration reported. As Alexander Starukh noted, the Russians launched two missile strikes on the village of Zarichne.

Occupied territories:

Russian occupiers kidnapped 46 children from the Kherson Oblast orphanage and moved them to the temporarily occupied Simferopol. “These are children under five years old. The invaders call the kidnapping of children an ‘evacuation,” Yaroslav Yanushevich, [Ukranian] head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration, wrote in his Telegram.

According to available information, the invaders are taking prisoners out of temporarily captured Kherson under the guise of “evacuation,” the director of the media and public relations department of the Kherson City Council, Gayane Oganesyan published on Facebook. “There are both women and men among the prisoners,” the official said. According to her, the people of Kherson were kept in inhumane conditions: without normal food and treatment. 10 or more people were held for months in cells designed for three people and stayed for several days. Gayane Oganesyan noted that with a high probability, [Ukrainian] Kherson Mayor Ihor Kolykhaev could be among them.

The head of the [legaly-elected Ukrainain] Kherson city military administration, Galina Luhova, advised the Kherson residents on how to act in the event of Russian forces blowing up the Kakhovska HPP dam. “In the event of a breakthrough of the Kakhovska HPP dam, the territory of the Kherson urban territorial community will experience catastrophic flooding in 2 hours. The water level in the Dnipro River after the breakthrough may rise to 5 [meters.] The maximum water level will be reached in 13 hours and 48 minutes. The time of the peak of the flood – 3 hours 30 minutes”, – emphasized the department for civil protection of the city of Kherson. Therefore, in case of danger, citizens are urged to turn off electrical appliances, gas stoves, take documents, necessary things, a supply of food and drinking water, and go to safe areas.

Spanish volunteer Mariano Garcia Calatayud – known as Mario – who disappeared at the beginning of the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is in the Simferopol pre-trial detention center of the temporarily occupied Crimea, reported the human rights organization KrymSOS. Mariano García Calatayud is a Spanish citizen who lived in Ukraine for eight years and was involved in volunteer activities. On March 19, he went to a pro-Ukrainian rally in temporarily occupied [by Russia] Kherson; after which he disappeared. Local activists reported that he was being held in Kherson.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is mainly on the previous day’s (October 21) developments)

It is the 241st day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories. It concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and at the same time does not give up attempts to conduct the offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

The Russian military shells the positions of the Ukrainian troops along the entire contact line and conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws, and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure. Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 5 missile and 19 air strikes and fired over 94 MLRS rounds.

About 20 Ukrainian towns and villages were hit by enemy strikes, including Kharkiv, Kupyansk; Bakhmut, Odradivka, Maryinka, Zelenopilya in the Donetsk Oblast; Zaporizhzhia; and Novovoskresenske in the Kherson Oblast. In the border areas, the enemy shelled Ukrainka, Mykolaivka, Krasny Khutir, and Hay in Chernihiv Oblast, Pokrovka in Sumy Oblast, Vovchansk, Gatyshche, Hlyboke, Milove, Ohirtseve, Neskuchne, Starytsa, Ternova, Strilecha and Chugunivka in Kharkiv Oblast. The enemy used aviation, anti-aircraft guided missiles, and “Shahed-136” UAVs.

The deployment of the joint regional grouping of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus troops continues. During the day, enemy aircraft made training flights in the airspace of the Republic of Belarus. According to available information, there are cases of conflicts between the Russian and Belarusian military on the national affiliation background and the impudent attitude of Russians towards Belarusians.

Russian military leadership does not stop the search for weapons supplies and trying to attract foreign mercenaries to the war in Ukraine. According to available information, [Russians] continue the recruitment of militants in one of the Middle East countries.

The problems of providing the Russian group with ammunition are increasing. The total share of ammunition of the main calibers that were recovered [from the long-term storage] and are now

supplied for the needs of Russian troops units in Ukraine, reached 65-67%; and 82-mm and 120- mm mines – 30-40%. In fact, two-thirds of the 152-mm, 122-mm (including rockets for MLRS), and 125-mm tank shells supplied to the front are repaired after long-term storage.

The level of the civilian population’s dissatisfaction with the actions of the military leadership of the Russian Federation is increasing, in particular, because of the mobilization that is still ongoing in remote regions [of RF], despite the official announcement of its end.

Ukrainian Defense Forces aircraft carried out 16 strikes during the past day. The impact on three enemy strongholds and ten areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, and three positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems, was confirmed. Ukrainian air defense units shot down an enemy Su-25 aircraft and an Orlan-10 UAV.

Over the past day, Ukraine’s missile forces and artillery hit 2 enemy command and control points, 14 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons, and military equipment, an ammunition warehouse, the enemy’s S-300 anti-aircraft missile complex, enemy artillery at firing positions and 5 more important targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

The newly mobilized Russians, captured as POWs [by Ukrainian Forses], [confirmed] the continued poor combat results. A captured mercenary from the “Wagner” PMC, who was recruited in the Ryazan penal colony, said that three-quarters of his unit died in the battles near Bakhmut and that the Russian troops shot his comrades who refused to fight, ordered them to commit suicide rather than go POW. They were not paid and treated like cannon fodder.

Another “mobilized” POW stated that Russian mobilization officials forced Russian prisoners [from Russian penal faciities] to mobilize, did not provide them with any training, and did not provide enough food; the soldiers only ate once a day.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces with mortars and jet artillery in the areas of Kolodyazne, Dvorichna, Bohdanivka, Berestove, and Kyslivka. Russian troops launched a missile attack on industrial infrastructure in the Kyivsky district of the city of Kharkiv.

Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Ternova.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

Russian troops fired with tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery at Karmazynivka, Zarichne, Shyykivka, and Terny.

The BTG from the 254th motorized rifle regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th Army, the (incomplete composition) of PMC “Wagner” assault detachment, and the BARS company tried to knock out the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Bilogorivka. They also tried to advance from the Lysychansk oil refinery to the west. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repulsed all the attacks of the occupiers.

The area near Svatove remains the most active, as Russian troops continue to try to regain lost positions around it.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the Russian assault on Lyman, tried to advance in the Terny area, and reach the P66 Kreminna-Svatov highway; the fighting continues.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy fired at the Ukrainian Defense Forces from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Andriivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Ivanhrad, Rozdolivka, Zelenopillia, Klishchiivka, Opytne, Avdiivka, Vesele, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Vodiane, and Pervomaiske.

Ukrainian Defense Forces units repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Lyman, Ivanhrad, Soledar, Novokalynove, Ozaryanivka, Odradivka, and Pervomaiske.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military did not conduct active offensive actions. They shelled the areas of Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Biloghirya, Zeleny Gay, and Mala Tokmachka.

In Energodar, Russian soldiers are looting abandoned apartments [of civilins] and hotels.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

Russian troops began to withdraw from the western part of the Kherson region.

A large part of the population left the city of Kherson. The Russian occupiers, who remained in the city, change into civilian clothes and move into the abandoned apartments. The enemy is

preparing Kherson for street battles. The Russian occupiers are “clearing” the premises of the Kakhovka Hospital, removing patients and medical staff.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces [fire] impact at the enemy repair base in the area of Novaya Kakhovka has been confirmed.

Ukrainian Defense forces struck the Russian pontoon crossing under the Antoniv bridge and continued to strike Russian positions and ammunition depots in the northern and central part of the Kherson region.

Russian troops use Ukrainian civilians as human shields while transporting military equipment across the Dnipro.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

In the open sea, the Russian naval group is comprised of 12 ships and boats located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Due to the mass launches of Kalibr missiles, the number of carriers is constantly changing, at least 16 Kalibr missiles are constantly in the sea ready for use.

In the waters of the Sea of Azov, enemy patrol ships and boats are on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were deployed.

The enemy continues its missile attacks on Ukraine and its coastal areas. On the morning of October 22, the enemy fired more than 30 cruise missiles at Ukraine: 17 X-101/X-555 missiles from Tu-95/Tu-160 aircraft and 15 Kalibr missiles from ships in the Black Sea. Aircraft, anti-aircraft missile units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force of Ukraine destroyed 18 enemy cruise missiles (13 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles and five Calibers). Two enemy missile strikes damaged infrastructure facilities in the Odesa region, and four of the six cruise missiles over Odesa were destroyed. The enemy continues to use kamikaze drones. 10 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones were shot down on the morning of October 22 over Mykolaiv.

Due to the repair of the Crimean bridge, the accumulation of cargo was waiting for crossing/moving through the Kerch Strait. The Russians are studying alternative logistic ways supplying of its grouping of troops in the Kherson Oblast through the occupied Azov region with the main hub in Melitopol. Meanwhile, since October 20, Russians [occuping forces] have been carrying out evacuation measures for the collaborators and the most capable military units from the right bank of the Dnieper, mainly on pontoons and barges.

“Grain initiative”. Ukraine remains committed to the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and supports its continuation after its expiration on November 22. This was stated by the permanent representative of Ukraine to the UN, Serhii Kyslytsia, at the meeting of the UN Security Council on Friday. He reminded that since the agreement came into force, 362 ships with 8 million tons of food left Ukrainian ports for the countries of Asia, Europe, and Africa. Ukraine continues to cooperate with the UN World Food Program on increasing the amount of food that is sent to the most vulnerable countries. “Ukrainian grain exports have already had an impact on stabilizing the world market, lowering prices, and reducing the chaos caused by food shortages around the world. That’s why we support its extension after November 22, when the 120-day deadline expires,” he emphasized.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 22.10

Personnel – almost 67,070 people (+320);

Tanks – 2,579 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,266 (+8);

Artillery systems – 1,653 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 373 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 189 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,021 (+15); Aircraft – 270 (+1);

Helicopters – 243 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,341 (+16); Intercepted cruise missiles – 329 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

In Ukraine, the activities of 12 pro-Russian parties were finally banned. The Administrative Court of Cassation rejected the appeal of the “Socialist Party of Ukraine” and, thus, finally banned its activities.

Denys Shmygal, the prime minister of Ukraine, asked Germany to urgently supply additional ammunition for IRIS-T air defense systems. The IRIS-T SLM is now in use and has already saved a huge number of lives, but due to constant Russian attacks, ammunition is quickly running out. Russia wants Ukraine to have a “cold winter where many people can literally freeze to death,” the Ukrainian prime minister said in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine. And if there is no electricity, heating, or water in Ukraine, it could “result in a planned humanitarian catastrophe such as Europe has not seen since World War II.”

Macro-financial assistance of 1.5 billion euros per month, which Ukraine will receive from the European Union next year, will be directed to social payments and support of the energy sector, announced the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga

Stefanishyna, Ukrinform reports. Stefanishyna noted that by the end of the year, together with the EU, it is planned to provide all energy facilities with the necessary materials for quick recovery. According to her, the monthly tranche of €1.5 billion is the result of more than six months of negotiations, and this is already the sixth program of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine from the EU.

International diplomatic aspect

Russians keep their veto power in the UN Security Council and are angry about any reform of the body. At the same time, the very legitimacy of Russia’s setting in the chair of a permanent member of the UN Security Council is doubtful. “According to the documents, it is still not the Russian Federation, but… the Soviet Union that is a permanent member of the Security Council (namely, this status gives the right to veto). However, in 1991, in an attempt to secure Russia’s nuclear and military capabilities, the UNSC decided to turn a blind eye to the organization’s violation of its charter and allow Russia to sit at the table — which, however, has not yet made its membership legal,” stated the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN in New York. The Soviet Union was one of the founders of the UN. At the same time, none of the UN members voted for the Russian Federation’s membership in general and its permanent seat at the UN Security Council, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moreover, the UN Charter doesn’t envisage any “succession” of the permanent member’s seat at all.

It is worth noting that the Soviet Union was expelled from the League of Nations, a predecessor of the UN, following the pact with Germany and aggression against Finland. The Ribbentrop Molotov Pact was about dividing Europe between the Nazi and communist allies, triggering the bloodiest conflict in Europe.

In 2014 Russia illegally annexed Crimea, which was the first illegal, forceful annexation of territory since the end of the Second World War. In 2022 Russia launched the largest military conflict on the European continent since the Second World War.

Iranian foreign ministry strongly condemned a call by France, Germany, and the UK for the UN’s investigation of the Iranian origin of drones that Russia used to hit Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure. President Ebrahim Raisi denied it [playing the fool], saying that all the concerns were based on Iran’s enemies who “do not want us to grow … to conquer markets”. He hinted that many countries are interested in buying Iranian weapons because they are better. “Let the enemy get angry and die of anger,” he concluded.

There’s a role of the Mullah regime in this as well in what UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown described as “The sheer depth of the humanitarian catastrophe [in Ukraine] is staggering.” Denise Brown has warned that more than 40 percent of the Ukrainian population (some 18 million) is now in need of emergency aid due to Russia’s war of aggression. She added that according to UNICEF, “some 5.7 million school children have been affected” since Russia’s all-out invasion, including some 3.6 million school children who have had their educational facilities closed. There have been over 630 verified attacks on healthcare. Fourteen million fled their homes, including 6.2 million internally displaced and nearly 7.7 million refugees.

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