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CDS Daily brief (23.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of October 23, 2022, more than 1,250 Ukrainian children are victims of full- scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who died and were wounded during the Russian aggression is 430, and more than 820 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.

On the night of October 23, the enemy attacked southern Ukraine with kamikaze drones. Ukrainian Air defense forces destroyed 11 enemy drones over the Mykolayiv Oblast, three more Shahed-136s were shot down by other units of the Defense Forces in the south of Ukraine. Two more that managed to break through from the south were destroyed by anti-aircraft gunners in the east and north of Ukraine.

At night, the Russians attacked Zaporizhzhia with kamikaze drones. One of them damaged a public building. The enemy hit a village in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast with three rockets. Private houses and educational institution were damaged. No victims were preliminary reported.

The movement of evacuation buses to Zaporizhzhia has been resumed from Hulyaipole, which is constantly under enemy fire, as reported by Hulyaipole urban territorial community on Facebook. Hulyaipole is one of the cities that is constantly under fire. There is not a single undamaged house left in the city. There is also no gas, electricity, or water in the city.

In Kirovohrad Oblast, at night, fragments of an enemy rocket shot down in Onufriivka damaged several houses.

In the morning, the occupiers hit Nikopol of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with anti-aircraft guns. The number of injured as a result of the morning shelling has increased to 6 people. Two of the victims were driving in a car when a Russian shell exploded nearby. Due to the shelling, houses, a kindergarten, and several private enterprises were damaged, said the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko.

At night, the Russians shelled Mykolaiv with rockets. One of them hit a 5-story residential building and damaged a nearby 10-story [apartmet] building. The heating line, a children’s playground, and several parked cars were also damaged. Preliminary, three wounded civilians were reported. Bashtanskyi, Mykolaivskyi, and Pervomayskyi districts of the Mykolayiv Oblast were also hit. Critical infrastructure facilities were damaged.

In Donetsk Oblast, on October 22, 2 civilians were killed by enemy shelling: in Klishchiivka and Torske. In addition, law enforcement officers found the bodies of 4 civilians who died during the occupation: 2 in Dibrova and 2 in Ozerne. Another 9 people were injured yesterday.

In Bakhmut, Donetsk region, a hospital building was damaged as a result of artillery shelling, the head of the Donetsk Military Administration reported. According to him, no one was hurt. But the building is partially destroyed: the roof and walls are damaged, and windows are broken.

In Kharkiv Oblast, during the past day, the enemy shelled Vovchansk, Chuguyiv, and Kupyansk (1 wounded) districts. In Vovchansk, as a result of shelling, a fire broke out in two private houses and at an industrial facility.

In the cities of Lutsk and Kovel in Volyn Oblast (northwest of Ukraine), the water supply has already been restored after yesterday’s rocket attacks by the Russians. Electricity supply was also restored in Khmelnytsk Oblast after a massive rocket attack on October 22. Work is also underway to restore the energy supply to Rivne and Cherkasy Oblasts.

Stabilization blackouts have been introduced in Kyiv. According to DTEK Kyiv Electric Networks, every effort is being made to ensure that the outages last no more than four hours. However, in some cases, due to the scale of damage to the power supply system, the blackouts may be prolonged.

Occupied territories:

Russians took 12 children with disabilities from the Oleshky orphanage in the Kherson Oblast to Crimea. In total, there were 82 children in the institution, 40 of whom are palliative, said Andriy Yermak, Head of the President’s Office. “What will happen next with the children is still unknown. There should be a tough legal response for such actions – this is the genocide of Ukrainians. We are doing everything to make the Russians answer,” he said.

At the same time, Russians are holding children from [occupied] Enerhodar (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) hostage in the Krasnodar Territory of Russia, the Ukrainian mayor of Enerhodar said. According to Dmytro Orlov, parents who sent their children to Russia for “recovery” began to receive alarming messages. “The occupiers confronted them with the fact that the children were ‘delayed to rest in Russia for an indefinite period’, ordered them to hand over warm clothes, and ‘reassured’ that the children would go to school there,” he reported.

On the air of the national news telethon, mayor Dmytro Orlov said, that the temporarily occupied Energodar is on the verge of a humanitarian disaster. There are no prospects for the start of the heating season in the city. Orlov reminded that Energodar has a centralized heating system and it comes from the TPP, which has been inactive since the spring due to military operations, and from the ZNPP, which is in shutdown mode. The mayor also noted that the employees of the nuclear plant are being forced to sign contracts with a fake management company created by Russia, and the passes of nuclear workers are being blocked, which may have negative consequences for the plant’s operation.

Head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, Serhiy Haidai said that Russian occupiers cut off electricity in the north of Luhansk Oblast. He stressed that this is how the invaders force local residents to leave their homes. At the same time, lists of those wishing to move into someone

else’s house are already being collected in Severodonetsk. “Administration” offers apartments with all conditions.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is mainly on the previous day’s (October 22) developments)

It is the 242nd day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories. It concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and at the same time does not give up attempts to conduct the offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

The enemy is shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops along the contact line and conducting aerial reconnaissance. Last day, the Russian occupiers again resorted to massive shelling of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, violating the norms of international humanitarian law, laws, and customs of war. Ukrainian Defense Forces shot down more than half of the cruise missiles and attack UAVs. In total, over the past day, the enemy has launched 32 missile and 25 air strikes and fired more than 80 MLRS rounds. Energy and critical infrastructure facilities in Volyn, Rivne, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Mykolaiv Oblasts were hit by enemy attacks.

Near the state border, the enemy shelled Gudove, Khodyne in Chernihiv Oblast and Seredyna Buda, Vovkivka, and Yunakivka in Sumy Oblast with mortars and barrel artillery.

Ukrainian Defense Forces aircraft carried out 17 strikes during the past day. The impact on 15 areas of enemy weapons and military equipment concentration and two positions of anti-aircraft missile systems was confirmed. Ukrainian air defense units shot down one Ka-52 helicopter and 3 Orlan UAVs.

Over the past day, Ukrainian military personnel of the missile forces and artillery hit three enemy command and control points, six areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, an ammunition depot, and five other important targets, including one radar.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces with mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of Kolodyazne, Kotlyarivka, and Kyslivka.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy fired at Stelmakhivka, Zarichne, and Terny with tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s attack on Bilohorivka.

Ukrainian troops continued to attack in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove and were stopped in the Kuzymivka area near the N26 highway. Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novovodyane, Chervonopivka, and Terny.

Russian troops do not have equipped defensive positions along the route P66 Svatove – Kreminna, despite previous statements from Russian sources.

On October 22, Russian troops carried out unsuccessful counterattacks intending to return the lost territories near Ternova, Bilohorivka, Zolotarivka, and in the direction of Lyman.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled from tanks and artillery the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Vesele, Zelenopillia, Klyshchiivka, Mayorsk, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Opytne, Soledar, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Vuhledar, Novobakhmutivka, and Neskuchne.

During the previous few days, the enemy company of the separate assault battalion (“Somali” illegal armed formation), two reinforced separate reconnaissance battalion platoons (“Sparta” illegal armed formation) of the 1st Army Corps, the BTG of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, tried to advance from Donetsk Airport (DAP) in the direction of Vodyane and Opytne, having the immediate task of taking control of the road between Opytne and DAP, and to take control of Vodyane and Opytne in the future.

Starting from the evening of October 18, the enemy tried to dislodge the advanced units of Ukrainian Defense Forces from their frontiers with a series of attacks from the Spartak area, positions north of DAP, and the northern outskirts of the Pisky village. In the course of these attacks, the “Somali” separate assault battalion was able to advance halfway from Pisky to Vodyane (to the fork of the road to Opytne and Vodyane) but was stopped by the Ukrainian fire from positions near Vodyane. Separate reconnaissance battalion “Sparta” did not reach the road, was stopped further south and had to assist the units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade, which was counterattacked at night by Ukrainian Defence Forces units from positions near Opytne village.

As of the evening of October 21, the enemy did not complete the assigned task, except for its left flank by reaching the line along the DAP-Opytne road and consolidating there. Units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade were forced to retreat even beyond their starting line. The enemy managed to stabilize the situation in the area of Spartak village only by introducing reserves into the battle (separate special battalions “Storm” and “Pyatnashka”, both of them – illegal armed formations).

Over the past 24 hours, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Ivanhrad, Maryinka, Soledar, Ozaryanivka, and Odradivka.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines

brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the areas of Dorozhnyanka and Orihiv. In the battles, 5 enemy units of weapons and military equipment were destroyed and about 100 enemy servicemen were wounded.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the military and civilian infrastructure of more than 20 towns and villages near the contact line, including Bezimenne, Biloghirka, Davydiv Brid, Novohryhorivka, Novoukrainka, Partyzanske, Pravdyne, and Chervona Dolyna.

The enemy’s troops left the village of Charivne, which means Ukrainian Defense Forces units breakthrough through the enemy’s battalion defense area in the area of Chkalove village. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are advancing toward Beryslav. The Russian troops’ tactical group along the Ishchenko – Borozenske – Nova Kamianka – southern outskirts of Dudchany is under threat of encirclement.

The destruction of the enemy’s personnel and equipment in Nova Kakhovka was confirmed: as a result of the destruction of the enemy concentration [by Ukrainian troops], 6 units of weapons and military equipment were destroyed and up to 150 servicemen were wounded.

Russian officers and medics evacuated from Beryslav. Russian troops are evacuating patients from the Kakhovka Hospital on the east bank of the Dnipro River to free up hospital beds for wounded that might occur as a result of the withdrawal across the river. Some Russian units are preparing Kherson for urban battles, while other military personnel continues to flee the city through the crossing that operates in the area of the Antonivsky Bridge. On October 22, Russian forces completed the construction of a barge bridge next to the damaged bridge, which will

become a critical crossing point for Russian forces. A large part of the Kherson population also left the city.

Russian forces are preparing to destroy the dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant, flood, and widen the Dnipro River to delay any Ukrainian advance.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

Due to the stormy conditions, the number of the Russian naval group at sea was reduced to 6 ships and boats. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. The number of Kalibr missile carriers is constantly changing, but at least 16 Kalibr missiles are always ready for salvo.

In the Sea of Azov waters, enemy patrol ships and boats are on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 10 enemy aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were deployed.

The enemy continues shelling Ukraine and its coastal areas. On the morning of October 23, the enemy used kamikaze drones en masse. 14 “Shahed-136” kamikaze drones were shot down over Mykolaiv.

“Grain initiative”. On October 23, the bulk carrier PANGEO, the sixth UN chartered ship (World Food Program (WFP), left the port of Chornomorsk. It has 40,000 tons of wheat for Yemen on board. Also, as part of the implementation of the “Grain Initiative”, 6 ships with 124.3 thousand tons of agricultural products left the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and “Pivdenny” for the countries of Asia and Europe.

As previously reported, Russia is deliberately delaying the full implementation of the Grain Initiative. Because of this, the ports have been operating at only 25-30% capacity in recent days. In general, since August 1, 380 ships have exported 8.5 million tons of agricultural products to the countries of Africa, Asia, and Europe from the ports of Great Odesa.

About 50,000 dolphins died in the Black Sea because of the war. According to Ivan Rusev, Doctor of Biological Sciences, many warships are maneuvering in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, including submarines, which sometimes approached the coastline. It is because of the use of sonar by ships that dolphins die. On the coast of Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania, 2,500 carcasses of mammals were found, but according to international studies, only 5% of the dead dolphins are washed ashore.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 23.10

Personnel – almost 67,470 people (+400);

Tanks – 2,584 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 5,284 (+18);

Artillery systems – 1,667 (+14);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 374 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 189 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,039 (+18); Aircraft – 270 (0);

Helicopters – 245 (+2);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,361 (+20); Intercepted cruise missiles – 350 (+21);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a conversation with the Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, and assured that Ukraine will do everything necessary for a dignified passage of the current IMF monitoring program and the fastest possible transition to the new one. On October 12, Zelenskyy called on the international community to create a new format of financial support for Ukraine, similar to the one created in Ramstein for defense assistance. He also noted that he discussed with the IMF head the need to create a permanent working group that would deal with issues of financial support to Ukraine and work promptly at the levels of international donors and countries participating in this assistance. Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva said that the IMF supports such an initiative.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba called for a worldwide ban on the RT propaganda channel after one of its leaders suggested brutally killing Ukrainian children on the air.

As a result of drone and missile attacks, almost 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was damaged, reaching billions of dollars, the head of the Ministry of Energy, Herman Galushchenko, said. “I have to tell you that it is… at least half of the thermal generation capacity, even more,” he said, outlining the extent of the damage. However, according to the head of the Ministry of Energy, there is a way out of the crisis. One of the options is to import electricity, and some traders have already started negotiations with suppliers.

Ukraine has lost 90% of wind energy, Galushchenko reminded. The main part of green energy was located in the south of Ukraine, where most of the territory is now occupied. Because of this, 90% of wind power plants and 45-50% of solar power plants have been decommissioned, he said in an interview with “We – Ukraine”. “We had a strategy that provided that in 2030 the share of “green” energy in Ukraine would be at least 25%. I believe that after our victory, taking into account the damage caused by Russia, we will probably revise it and increase the percentage,” he said.

International diplomatic aspect

Russians keep their veto power in the UN Security Council and are angry about any reform of the body. At the same time, the very legitimacy of Russia’s sitting in the chair of a permanent member of the UN Security Council is doubtful. “According to the documents, it is still not the Russian Federation, but… the Soviet Union that is a permanent member of the Security Council (namely, this status gives the right to veto). However, in 1991, in an attempt to secure Russia’s nuclear and military capabilities, the UNSC decided to turn a blind eye to the organization’s violation of its charter and allow Russia to sit at the table — which, however, has not yet made its membership legal,” stated the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN in New York. The Soviet Union was one of the founders of the UN. At the same time, none of the UN members voted for the Russian Federation’s membership in general and its permanent seat at the UN Security Council, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moreover, the UN Charter doesn’t envisage any “succession” of the permanent member’s seat at all.

It is worth noting that the Soviet Union was expelled from the League of Nations, a predecessor of the UN, following the pact with Germany and aggression against Finland. The Ribbentrop Molotov Pact was about dividing Europe between the Nazi and communist allies, triggering the bloodiest conflict in Europe.

In 2014 Russia illegally annexed Crimea, which was the first illegal, forceful annexation of territory since the end of the Second World War. In 2022 Russia launched the largest military conflict on the European continent since the Second World War.

Iranian foreign ministry strongly condemned a call by France, Germany, and the UK for the UN’s investigation of the Iranian origin of drones that Russia used to hit Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure. President Ebrahim Raisi denied it [playing the fool], saying that all the concerns were based on Iran’s enemies who “do not want us to grow … to conquer markets”. He hinted that many countries are interested in buying Iranian weapons because they are better. “Let the enemy get angry and die of anger,” he concluded.

There is a role of the Mullah regime in this as well in what UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown described as “The sheer depth of the humanitarian catastrophe [in Ukraine] is staggering.” Denise Brown has warned that more than 40 percent of the Ukrainian population (some 18 million) is now in need of emergency aid due to Russia’s war of aggression. She added that according to UNICEF, “some 5.7 million school children have been affected” since Russia’s all-out invasion, including some 3.6 million school children who have had their educational facilities closed. There have been over 630 verified attacks on healthcare. Fourteen million fled their homes, including 6.2 million internally displaced and nearly 7.7 million refugees.

Russia, relevant news

At the Perm gunpowder plant, which produces shells for the MLRS, there was a fire followed by detonation. At least two employees were killed and others were injured. The plant worked in three shifts to meet the needs of the Russian army.
In Irkutsk, a military plane Su-30 crashed on a two-story civilian house. Civilian casualties have not yet been reported. A strong fire broke out at the crash site. The Ministry of Emergency Situations reported that the plane crashed during a test flight. Russian media report that the crew of the SU-30 died. It is the second Russian military aircraft downed in the residential neighborhood due to technical issues. First (six days before) was Su-34 which fell on a residential high-rise building in Yeysk. Then 15 people died.

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