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CDS Daily brief (24.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

The capital of Kyiv and seven other Oblasts of Ukraine had temporary power outages introduced today. They are necessary to repair the equipment damaged due to Russian shelling, Ukrenergo’s press service said. Blackouts were introduced in Kharkiv, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts. At the same time, the widest restrictions were applied in Kyiv and Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.

During the day of October 23, the Russian occupation forces shelled 5 regions of Ukraine, namely Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Mykolayiv, and Kherson. 6 people were killed and 5 injured during the past day in Donetsk Oblast. The other four oblasts reported no victims.

The unemployment rate in Ukraine will reach 30% by the end of 2022, First Vice Prime Minister

– Minister of Economy Yuliya Svyridenko said. According to her, one of the current challenges for the government is solving unemployment problems. She added that the government directs all its efforts to support small businesses.

During the occupation of Kyiv Oblast in March 2022, the Russian forces illegally deported at least 147 local residents to the territory of Belarus and the Russian Federation, Oleksiy Kuleba, head of the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration, said.

Occupied territories:

The Russian occupation forces only create the illusion that they are leaving Kherson, but in fact, they are bringing new military units there and preparing to fight for the occupied Oblast center, Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, said. He stated that the so-called evacuation of the civilian population is a part of the information campaign to show that they care about people. Russian media reported that the men not leaving Kherson are offered to join “territorial defense” voluntarily. It should be noted, however, that it’s next to impossible to leave Kherson for the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government.

According to the legally elected Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov, the Russian occupying authorities did not return to their parents the children who were taken from captured Enerhodar to “summer camps” in Russia and occupied Crimea, leaving them there for an “indefinite period.” Children from the temporarily occupied Enerhodar were already supposed to return from the summer camps, but the Russians contacted their parents and asked them to give the children winter clothing. In other words, the children are not returning yet.

After the de-occupation of Crimea, Ukrainian courts will punish officials who facilitated the occupation, violators of human rights, and those who committed war crimes, the permanent representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea Tamila Tasheva said. She stressed that most people living on the peninsula’s territory are not involved in Russia’s mass and war crimes; therefore, they have no reason to be afraid of Ukraine’s return.

Operational situation

It is the 243rd day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories and improve its tactical position. It concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops and, at the same time, does not give up attempts to conduct the offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

The Russian Federation continues to train a part of the mobilized servicemen at combined military training grounds and training units for specialists in certain professions.

The Russian military shells the positions of the Ukrainian troops along the entire contact line and conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, the Russian forces launched missile and air strikes on the infrastructure during the past day. In total, over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 2 missile and 28 air strikes and fired 65 MLRS rounds. Civilian infrastructure objects in Bakhmut, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Novotavrycheske of Zaporizhzhia Oblast were hit by Russian attacks. In addition, the Russian forces shelled the border villages of Hryhorivka, Krasne, Ohirtseve, Starytsya, Petro- Ivanivka, Fiholivka, Khatnye, Chervona Zorya, and Chuhunivka of Kharkiv Oblast with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery.

During October, mobilization resources are being inspected on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Special groups have been formed at local executive authorities to check and verify information on potential conscripts. Information on the type of professional activity of the men of conscription age, their registered military specialties, and their marital status is being clarified. The threat of missile and air strikes against critical infrastructure of Ukraine from the territory of the Republic of Belarus persists, including the use of attack UAVs.

The aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 11 strikes over the past day. Impact on 11 enemy strongholds and weapons and military equipment concentration areas are confirmed. In addition, Ukrainian air defense units shot down 12 “Shahed-136” UAVs.

Over the past day, Ukraine’s missile forces and artillery hit 4 enemy command and control posts, 5 areas of manpower, weapons and equipment concentration, 4 ammunition depots, an air defense complex, an area of artillery firing positions, and other important targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Zemlianka and Chuhunivka in Kharkiv Oblast, Soledar, Bakhmut, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, Novomykhailivka, Maryinka, Nevelske, Pervomaiske and Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian military fired tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery at Berestove, Grekivka, Zarichne, Kovalivka, Makiivka, Yampolivka, Kamianka, and Bilohorivka.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Zelenopillia, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, New York, Ozaryanivka, Opytne, Soledar, Spirne, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, Maryinka, Prechystivka, Novopil, Novosilka, and Zaliznychne.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian forces shelled the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Malynivka, Mykilske, Olhivske, Pavlivka and Shevchenko with barrel and jet artillery.

The artillery fire directly hit the infrastructure of Nikopol and Illinka of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The destruction of three enemy BM-21 “Grad” MLRS and the evacuation of about seventy wounded enemy servicemen in the area around Mykhailivka in Zaporizhzhya Oblast on October 22 was confirmed.

In the city of Enerhodar, the Russian occupying forces rotated personnel at the nuclear power plant. Facts of continued physical and moral pressure on the Zaporizhzhya NPP employees to force them to sign contracts with the Rosatom corporation are recorded. The Russian occupation authorities do not allow the power plant employees to move to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 42, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 114th, 143rd, and 394th motorized rifle regiments, 218th tank regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division, 57th and 60th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 5th Combined Arms Army, 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 429th motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division, 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division, 34th and 205th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division, 10th, 16th, 346th separate SOF brigades, 239th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division, 108 air assault regiment, 171st separate airborne assault battalion of the 7th Air assault division, 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigade, 4th military base of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 7 military base 49 Combined Arms Army, 224th, 237th and 126th separate coastal defence brigades, 127th separate ranger brigade, 1st and 3rd Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around villages near the contact line. In particular, Shevchenkove, Ternovi Pody, Myrne, Novohryhorivka, Kvitneve, Kyselivka, Blahodativka, Novopoltavka, Bilohirka, Davydiv Brid and Tryfonivka were shelled.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

The Russian naval group at sea is comprised of 11 ships and boats. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. The number of Kalibr missile carriers is constantly changing, but at least 16 Kalibr missiles are always ready for use at sea. Three amphibious ships of project 775 are among the ships at sea. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MOD, the Russian Kalibr missiles stocks currently make up about 43% of the pre-war stocks of the Russian Federation.

In the Sea of Azov waters, enemy patrol ships and boats are located on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 13 Su-27, Su-30, and Su-24 aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

Spans destroyed by an explosion and fire earlier this month are being dismantled on the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting the occupied Crimea with the territory of Russia. Heavy equipment working on the damaged area can be seen from the Kerch coast. According to the Russian- controlled administration of Kerch, work on the Kerch bridge continues around the clock. Russian Deputy Prime Minister, the “curator” of the occupied Crimea, Marat Husnullin, said earlier that trucks weighing up to 40 tons were allowed to pass through the bridge. However, the Russian authorities recommend that trucks go from Crimea to Russia through the occupied territories of Kherson Oblast.

“The Grain initiative.” 6 ships left the ports of Greater Odesa with 227,000 tons of agricultural products for the countries of Africa, Asia, and Europe. Among them is the bulk carrier MBC DAISY, which has 14,000 tons of wheat for Algeria on board. Since the departure of the first ship with Ukrainian food, 8.8 million tons of agricultural products have been exported. A total of 386 ships with food for the countries of Asia, Europe, and Africa left Ukrainian ports.

Because Russia is delaying inspections of ships entering and leaving Ukrainian seaports, the queue in the Sea of Marmara has already exceeded 170 ships. Due to the obstacles created by Russia, Ukraine under-exported about 3 million tons of food. Currently, Ukrainian ports are forced to work at 25-30% of their capacity because Russia is blocking ship inspections.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 25.10

Personnel – almost 67,940 people (+470);

Tanks 2,590 (+6

Armored combat vehicles – 5,295 (+11);

Artillery systems – 1,673 (+6);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 375 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 189 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,044 (+5); Aircraft – 270 (0);

Helicopters – 245 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,370 (+9); Intercepted cruise missiles – 350 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The latest poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology held on October 21-23 shows that 86% of Ukrainians believe it necessary to continue the armed resistance, even if Russia doesn’t stop shelling Ukrainian cities. 71% fully agree, and 15% sooner agree than disagree. At the same time, only 10% of respondents answered that it is necessary to proceed to negotiations to stop the shelling as soon as possible, even if it is necessary to make concessions to the Russian Federation.

The Ukrainian Commission on Journalistic Ethics (CJEU) is withdrawing from the Alliance of Independent Press Councils of Europe, it said in a statement. The reason is that the Russian Public Panel on Press Complaints is still a member of the Alliance. In April of this year, when the full- scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was already underway, the CJEU proposed to remove the Russian Public Panel from the Alliance. The ground was the demand was its inactivity in the face of many years of lies, manipulations, and inciting hatred in the Russian media regarding Ukraine. On October 21, in a general meeting, the members of the Alliance considered the complaint of the CJEU. Still, after a secret vote, it became clear that there were not enough signatures to exclude the Russian Public Panel.

65% of Ukrainians do not believe that Russia can use nuclear weapons against Ukraine (18% are confident that it won’t), a survey of the sociological group “Rating” conducted on October 8-9 showed. On the other hand, 2% of respondents said that Russia would definitely launch a nuclear strike, and 24% believed it might go for it.

Former member of the Ukrainian parliament and President of Motor Sich JSK Bohuslayev, suspected of supplying helicopter engines to the Russian Federation at the time of the full-scale war, was arrested by the court for 2 months (until December 20).

International diplomatic aspect

After communicating with the Russian Minister of Defence, the US, UK, and France governments issued the Joint Statement, which “made clear that we all reject Russia’s transparently false

allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory. The world would see through any attempt to use this allegation as a pretext for escalation. We further reject any pretext for escalation by Russia”.

“Will you state categorically that Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or engage in other provocative actions, such as exploding a dirty bomb, or blowing up a dam?” Steve Rosenberg, BBC Russia Editor, asked Russia’s top spy. Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, infamous for his trembling voice and confusing behavior during Russia’s National Security meeting on the eve of the all-out invasion, replied as if he didn’t get the question: “We are, of course, very concerned about Western rhetoric about the possibility of using nuclear weapons.” Instead, he picked up narrative Russian propaganda machinery started to spin a day ago about Kyiv’s plans to use “a dirty bomb.”

The head of Russia’s nuclear, chemical, and biological forces held a briefing to provide the “evidence” supporting the accusation of Kyiv of evil intentions. The most potent argument was that “Ukraine has a motive for using a “dirty bomb,” as well as the scientific, technical and industrial potential to create it.” “As a result of the dirty bomb provocation, Ukraine expects to intimidate the local population, increase the flow of refugees across Europe and expose the Russian Federation as a nuclear terrorist,” pointed out a Russian general. He believes that Ukrainians want to “launch a powerful anti-Russian campaign in the world aimed at undermining confidence in Moscow.” Given Russia’s diplomatic and political isolation, he didn’t specify what confidence in Moscow he was talking about. Russia enjoyed the company of Belarus, North Korea, Nicaragua, and Syria, who voted against the UN General Assembly on the “Territorial integrity of Ukraine: defending the principles of the Charter of the United Nations,” while the rest of the world sided with Ukraine.

Moreover, he alleged Ukraine and the West were setting up media provocation as “they [the West] did” in Syria. He repeated Russian propaganda that the Syrian White Helmets “staged” a gas attack on themselves, showing as a proof photo of Syrians filming a movie based on actual events. The General showed a map of a possible contamination area, which turned out to be the same map Russian propaganda distributed in August. Then, Moscow accused Ukraine of a planned false flag operation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, a Ukrainian power plant that Russians illegally seized and has been handling recklessly since.

In an unprecedented move, Russian state propaganda outlet RT (former Russia Today) has suspended and condemned one of its top presenters, Anton Krasovsky. Krasovsky smilingly suggested drowning Ukrainian children in a river or shoving them into huts and burn. Russian media has not gone too far from the Rwandan “Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines” that had been instigating genocide.

Olga Dukhnich, a Ukrainian social psychologist, nailed it: “Speech in Russia is divorced from reality and equally from values. It is not about what one should do but who one should pretend to be. It does not mean anything other than indicating the speaker’s place in the hierarchy and the

speaker’s loyalty to power. But the rules of loyalty are not always clear to the speaker. Because what Solovyov [one of the top propagandists] is allowed to say, Krasovsky is not allowed to say.”

“We want the Ukrainian people to decide at a certain point, peace, the moment, and the terms of peace,” the French President said at a peace conference in Rome. “To stay neutral would mean accepting the world order of the strongest, and I don’t agree with this,” outlined Emmanuel Macron. Romania’s defense minister resigned for suggesting Ukraine’s only chance for peace would be talking to Russia. His words contradict the official stance of the Romanian government and what became a whole European position.

Russia, relevant news

The Russian aluminum producer UC Rusal has decided to issue bonds worth 6 billion yuan: the term of the issue is 2.5 years. Calculations for the payment of coupons and repayment of the issue will be made in yuan; according to the issuer’s decision and investors’ requests, cashless payments in rubles at the official rate of the Bank of Russia are possible.

Russian publication “Mediazona” tried to estimate the number of mobilized servicemen in Russia based on the number of weddings that have increased sharply after the start of the mobilization (a person who is mobilized does not have to wait for 1 month for an official ceremony). The publication cites the example of Buryatia, where 83 weddings were registered between September 1 and 21, and after the announcement of mobilization, 662 were registered. Data were collected from 75 regions of the Russian Federation, which indicate that 31 thousand weddings of mobilized people were held. Mediazona’s estimate shows that at least 431,000 people were mobilized in these regions by mid-October.

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