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CDS Daily brief (29.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

The most common crimes committed by Russia against Ukrainian children are illegal deportation, and illegal adoption of Ukrainian children in the Russian Federation, the Verkhovna Rada Human Right Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said in an interview with Ukrinform. He stressed that Russia even changed its legislation to facilitate the procedure for the adoption of specifically Ukrainian children by Russian parents. The Ukrainian Ombudsman noted that he does not have the exact number of Ukrainian children adopted by Russian parents.

On October 28, the Russian forces killed 3 civilians in Donetsk Oblast, namely 2 in Kurdyumivka and 1 in Pivnichne. Also, 8 people were wounded, the head of Donetsk OMA, Pavlo Kyrylenko, reported. Overall, in Ukraine, Russian troops killed three civilians and wounded 14 civilians.

Russia continued shelling Ukrainian residential areas and civilian infrastructure. Oblast Military Administrations reported shelling in 7 Oblasts of Ukraine over the past day, including the following:

  • 3 communities in Sumy Oblast were shelled throughout the day on October 28. No victims of damages to property were reported.
  • At night, the Russian forces shelled three communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, namely Nikopolska, Marganetska, and Myrivska. A 39-year-old man was wounded and hospitalized in Nikopol. Civilian infrastructure sustained damages, including eight high- and low-rise residential buildings.
  • On the morning of October 29, Russian troops shelled a village in Shirokivska community, Mykolaiv Oblast. According to the head of the OMA, two residential buildings were destroyed, and three more were damaged. There were no casualties from the shelling.
  • During the past day, the Russian invaders shelled 12 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 14 reports were filed concerning the destruction of houses (apartments) and infrastructure facilities.
  • Donetsk Oblast was heavily shelled throughout the day on October 28. Avdiivka and Ocheretynska, Lymanska, and Marinska communities came under intensive fire. Donetsk Oblast OMA reported damages to civilian infrastructure.

At around 13:00 the head of Zaporizhzhia OMA, Oleksandr Starukh reported that after a short break, the Russian invaders struck Zaporizhzhia again, hitting critical infrastructure facilities in the city.

About 130,000 people have left the liberated and temporarily occupied territories since August, the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories reports. Over 26,000 people left Donetsk Oblast during the mandatory evacuation, including more than 4,000 children and more than 1,600 persons with limited mobility. Residents of the temporarily captured territories also try to evacuate. But it is increasingly difficult to do this, the Russian occupying forces put up numerous obstacles. In recent days, only about a thousand citizens have been able

to evacuate from the occupied parts of Ukraine, while about 82 thousand people have left them since the beginning of August.

Kirovohrad Oblast received the 34th and the last train as part of the mandatory evacuation from Donetsk Oblast, wrote the head of the Kirovohrad OMA, Andriy Raikovych. Today, Novoukrainka and Smolin sheltered 84 people, including 10 children. The region received almost 3,900 displaced persons during the mandatory evacuation period.

1,077 bodies have been found so far in the de-occupied territories of Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, Minister of Internal Affairs Denys Monastyrskyi said. He stressed that identification is underway, however, it is taking a long time since it’s impossible to recognize people visually, and DNA samples have to be collected and analyzed.

52 Ukrainians, including 50 military personnel and 2 civilians, returned home as a result of a POW swap that took place near Kamianske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President, reported.

In Rivne Oblast, the operation of energy systems was restored and stabilized. From now on, there will be no blackouts in the region, and electricity will be supplied to its residents without restrictions, Vitaliy Koval, head of the Rivne OVA, said.

Occupied territories:

After the Russian forces blew up the temporary structure blocking the access of the Dnipro River water to the occupied Crimea at the end of February, water from the Dnipro continued to flow into the North Crimean canal. Russia has already stolen more than 4 million cubic meters of water, the press service of the Ministry for Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine said.

In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, Russian occupation authorities set up so-called “educational corners” with bubliki [Russian bread shaped like a circle], a samovar, and the flag of the Russian Federation, the Mariupol City Council, reports. “They try to impose Russian propaganda and identity on children from childhood. Students are taught distorted history and are forced to accept foreign symbols.

The legally elected Mariupol mayor, Vadym Boychenko, said that the Russia-installed occupation authorities use the recently imposed martial law to loot and take away remaining equipment and Ukrainian metal products from the local plants. They make residents work without paying wages and plan to mobilize 10,000 men. The occupying authorities issue identification documents they call passports to the city residents.

According to Ukrainian General Staff, municipally owned means of transportation were moved from Kherson to the temporarily occupied Crimea. Information regarding the removal of medical supplies from most pharmacies in the city is confirmed. Starting October 26, the occupation authorities suspended the medical staff of several city hospitals; the medical equipment from

them had been taken away by the Russian occupiers. It is also reported that under the pretext of preparing for the “defense” of the city of Nova Kakhovka, the Russian military is forcefully evacuating local residents from the streets on the banks of the Dnipro River.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is mainly on the previous day’s (October 28) developments)

It is the 248th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories and improve its tactical position. It concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and at the same time does not give up attempts to conduct the offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

The Russian military shells the positions of the Ukrainian troops along the contact line, fortifies its positions in certain directions, and actively conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Vodyane, Kamianka and Nevelske in Donetsk Oblast.

Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 4 missile strikes and 25 air strikes and fired 70 MLRS rounds. Areas around more than 35 towns and villages were hit by the Russian fire, including Siversk and Prechystivka of Donetsk Oblast; Mali Shcherbaky, Zaporizhzhia Oblast; Davydiv Brid and Mala Seideminukha in Kherson Oblast and Kobzarka, Mykolaiv Oblast. Near the state border, the aggressor shelled Hai, Khrinivka and Leonivka in Chernihiv Oblast and Veterynarne, Dvorichna, Starytsa, Strilecha and Chuhunivka in Kharkiv Oblast with mortars and barrel artillery.

The Russian command began to actively withdraw their field camps as well as equipment and weapon concentration points located in the Russian Belgorod Oblast to a distance that exceeds the effective range of the weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (up to 75 km). Part of the forces and means are moved to the Kursk and Rostov Oblasts of the Russian Federation.

Due to the unstable operation of medical aviation, lack of preparation of the medical infrastructure of Belgorod Oblast, and 100% use of the local hospital capacity, the Russian military is forced to evacuate their wounded to nearby Voronezh by bus.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. The threat of missile and air strikes against critical infrastructure of Ukraine from the territory of the country persists, including the use of attack UAVs.

As a result of point strikes by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, about 300 Russian soldiers who had been preparing for another attack were destroyed in the area around Mayorsk the day before. About 60 more lightly wounded were taken to medical facilities in the city of Horlivka the next day. In addition, up to 20 Russian servicemen were destroyed in the village of Chervonopopivka, Luhansk Oblast, and about 30 Russian soldiers were wounded to various degrees of severity.

Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces aircraft made 24 strikes on areas of enemy weapons and military equipment concentration and anti-aircraft missile systems positions. Ukrainian air defense units shot down 2 Russian Su-25 assault aircraft, one Mi-8 helicopter and one Russian UAV.

Ukraine’s missile and artillery forces hit the positions of the self-propelled artillery battery and other important enemy military targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

As a result of almost continuous tough close combats with advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, enemy BTG of the 254th motorized rifle regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division was forced to withdraw towards Svatove due to the inability to hold its positions.

Two companies of the 288th motorized rifle regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division suffered significant losses from the artillery of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, partially lost communication and find themselves semi-surrounded.

The 3rd motorized rifle battalion of the 488th motorized rifle regiment was replenished with thirteen newly mobilized men who do not even have basic military training. Two other battalions of the 488th motorized rifle regiment merged into one BTG. They were withdrawn to Kreminna because most of the mobilized troops who arrived to replenish these units refused to perform combat tasks on the front lines. As a result, only a BTG of the 752nd motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd motorized rifle division of the 20th Army, which is defending itself in the area of Chervonopopivka, remains operational.

The units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the eastern part of the direction get entrenched, replenish and regroup, and deter Russian counterattacks. Under favorable conditions, they try to improve their tactical position. Despite the Russian attempts to push them back in the Dibrova and Bilohorivka areas, UAF hold their positions and impose the initiative. The Russian military built a second line of defense in the area of Zmiivka – the northwestern outskirts of Svatove along the R07 highway. The Russian command is trying to ensure control of the Nyzhnya Duvanka area and sections of the Troitske-Svatove highway.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas Berestove, Nevske, Spirne, Olhivka, and Novoyehorivka with tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Soledar, Zelenopillia, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Pervomaiske.

Two assault detachments of the “Wagner” PMC (both the size of an incomplete company) are trying to break into the low-rise residential area of Bakhmut at any cost from the south on its southern outskirts. Fierce close-up battles continue. The Russian command hopes to report about the “capture of Bakhmut” in the near future.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and civilian infrastructure in the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne and Pavlivka.

A fresh BTG of the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58th Army is being deployed in the Novohorivka area. It arrived after the restoration of its combat capability. The BTG has about 400 servicemen and 60-70% of military equipment.

A consolidated tactical group of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Chechnya is deployed in the area of Mykhailivka – Rozdol – Pryshyb. It plays the role of a blocking detachment for the units and divisions of the Russian Armed Forces and other formations deployed in the area of Vasylivka.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd Army Corps of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Areas of more than 20 towns and villages along the contact line were hit by enemy fire. To conduct aerial reconnaissance, the Russian military made about 20 sorties by UAVs of various types.

Active fighting continues, especially in the northern part of the direction. The Ukrainian Armed Forces deter the enemy’s counterattacks and create conditions to continue the offensive. The Russian forces are on the defensive along the lines of Oleksandrivka, Pravdyne, Soldatske, Blahodatne (Kherson Oblast), Ternovi Pody, Vavilov, Maksymivka, Blahodatne (Mykolaiv Oblast),

Novopetrivka, Snihurivka, Pavlivka, along the Inhulets River, Kalynivske, Shaslyve, Kostromka, Bruskinsk, Ishchenka, Sadok, Borozenske, Pyatihatky, Sukhanov and further south of Dudchany.

On the Oleksandrivka – Blahodatne – Lyubomyrivka – Maksymivka – Blahodatne – Novopetrivka section, a certain parity of forces has formed. Both sides conduct reconnaissance and subversive actions, looking for weak points in the enemy’s defense. The Russian command concentrated up to 10 BTGs (+2 BTGs reserve) here.

On the Novopetrivka – Snigurivka – Yevgenivka – Kalinivske – Shchaslyve – Bruskinske – Ishchenka

  • Bezvodne – Borozenske section, both sides try to improve their tactical position. Active hostilities continue. The parties fired at each other’s positions and mobile groups; they conducted reconnaissance to identify weak points in the enemy’s defense. The Russian military concentrated up to 11 BTGs (+3 BTGs reserve) here.

The Russian military concentrated a large grouping on several lines in the Shchaslyve – Kostromka

  • Bruskinske – Chkalove areas.

In the section of Pyatykhatky – Sukhany – Dudchany, both sides conduct reconnaissance and subversive actions, looking for weak spots in the enemy’s defense. The Russian military concentrated up to 4 BTGs here.

In the town of Beryslav, the occupiers en masse change into civilian clothes and move into private residences. The so-called “evacuation” of occupiers from the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, including the “evacuation” of medical facilities, continues. All equipment and medical supplies are taken out of Kherson hospitals. Doctors who refuse to leave are not allowed to enter hospital grounds, even to collect personal belongings.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

The Russian fleet has 9 ships, boats, and submarines at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them are 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers carrying a total of 20 missiles: a Project 11356R frigate, a Project 21631 small missile ship, and one Project 636.3 submarine. This grouping at sea also has one amphibious ship of project 775. There are no signs that an amphibious detachment to conduct an amphibious operation is being formed.

In the waters of the Black Sea, the suppression of global positioning system (GPS) signals by ground-based electronic warfare and countermeasures (EW) was recorded during the flight of the reconnaissance UAV of the RQ-4B-40 type.

In the Sea of Azov waters, 6 patrol ships and boats are located on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

During the night and morning of October 29, the sounds of explosions and volleys similar to the sounds of anti-aircraft fire were heard in Sevastopol. At 4:30 a.m., a strong characteristic sharp sound of an air explosion was heard in the area of the Riflemen’s Bay and the Quarantine Bay in the southern part of Sevastopol. The Nakhimov Navy School and the dislocation of the Russian military are located there. The Russian military claimed that an attack with unmanned aerial vehicles involved nine aerial and seven naval UAVs. It is claimed that some of them were destroyed. Meanwhile, local sources report a fire at an army warehouse and on several boats. Also, according to unverified data, the frigate “Admiral Makarov”, which became the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation after the sinking of the “Moskva” cruiser, was damaged. “The sea minesweeper “Ivan Golubets” suffered minor damage, as well as the bonosenet barrier in Pivdenna Bay,” the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation said. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISnHf4E8nqs

“The Grain initiative”: on October 29, another six ships with Ukrainian agricultural products left the ports of Odesa Oblast as part of the “grain initiative”. During the “grain initiative” implementation, 9.1 million tons of agricultural products were exported from Ukrainian ports. A total of 403 ships went to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres calls for the restoration of the full implementation of the Black Sea grain initiative. Guterres said this in a statement published on the UN website on October 29. The Secretary-General noted that exported Ukrainian grain saved 100 million people from extreme poverty. “The Secretary-General expresses his unwavering commitment and strong support for the renewal and full implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the statement reads. The UN Secretary-General noted that the impact of the agreement signed in Istanbul has produced results. The export of grain and other food products within the Black Sea Grain Initiative framework exceeded 9 million tons under the careful monitoring and coordination of the Joint Coordination Center.

According to the Russian TASS news agency, Russia is suspending its participation in the grain deal over today’s attack in Sevastopol. Press secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that Putin does not plan yet to have a telephone conversation with Erdogan regarding the suspension of Russia’s participation in the “grain deal”. Russian media reported that Russia officially notified the UN of its decision.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 29.10

Personnel – almost 70,250 people (+550);

Tanks – 2,659 (+19)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,401 (+23);

Artillery systems – 1,708 (+9);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 380 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 195 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,107 (+19); Aircraft – 273 (+1);

Helicopters – 252 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,406 (+5); Intercepted cruise missiles – 351 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during a conversation with students and teachers of Yale University, emphasized that it is in Ukraine that the global fate of democracy is being determined. “It is important that Russia loses now – in the war in Ukraine. When we win for ourselves, we will also win for other peoples whose freedom is potentially under attack, the ambitions of the Russian throne are known…” Zelenskyy said.

International diplomatic aspect

Seventy-three percent of Russians support military aggression against Ukraine, while twenty percent do not, according to the recent Levada Centre poll. One percent of Russians changed their mind from not supporting to backing the war since last month, and eight percent still can’t decide whom to side with. Thirty-six percent prefer military actions over diplomacy, while more than half (57%) are for diplomacy. The most belligerent, the “55 and older” group (42% support the continuation of war) is opposed by “18-24 years old doves” (68% back negotiations). The most prominent feelings about the situation in the recently illegally annexed territories are indifference (42% of 18-24 years old), and anxiety and fear (37% of 55+ years old).

Russians bought seventy percent more antidepressants (8.4 million packs) from January to September than in the same period last year, according to the Center for the Development of Advanced Technologies. Moscow leads the ranking with 1.3 thousand packs per 10 thousand adult residents, and “the Northern capital” of St. Petersburg follows with 1.2 thousand. Moscow Oblast falls behind with 976 thousand, followed by Karelia (939 thousand) and Rostov Oblast (909 thousand), which borders Ukraine.

InformNapalm has calculated a median lifespan of a newly mobilized Russian soldier, which is twelve days. Most of all – 12 out of 16 Russian mobilized soldiers were killed in Kherson Oblast, followed by four more in Luhansk Oblast.

In the meantime, Ukrainians are in a fighting mood. Seventy-one percent of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine needs to carry on fighting despite missile and drone attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology’s poll. Only ten percent of Ukrainians think Ukraine needs to negotiate with Russia and agree on concessions.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine and the UK of a naval drone strike on warships in Sevastopol, Crimea as well as of blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines.

“We have warned of Russia’s plans to ruin the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Now Moscow uses a false pretext to block the grain corridor, which ensures food security for millions of people. I call

on all states to demand Russia to stop its hunger games and recommit to its obligations,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister twitted after Russia’s announcement. Russia on Saturday suspended its participation in the “grain deal” brokered by Turkey and the UN after what it said was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its warships that have been firing cruise missiles on Ukrainian cities. “We underline the urgency of doing so [resumption of grain supply] to contribute to food security across the world and to cushion the suffering that this global cost-of-living crisis is inflicting on billions of people,” a UN spokesperson said.

Russia, relevant news

In the Russian city of Kemerovo, an unknown person threw a bottle with an incendiary mixture into the building of the Military Commissariat, the local portal NGS42.ru reports. A source in the law enforcement agencies said that the attacker was detained, and investigators were working with him. Another interlocutor of the portal clarified that the attacker was female. Officially, the law enforcement officers have not yet commented on the situation.

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