CDS Daily brief (30.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of October 30, 2022, more than 1,253 Ukrainian children are victims of full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The official number of children who died and were wounded during the Russian aggression is 430, and more than 823 children, respectively. However, the data is not conclusive since data collection continues in the areas of active hostilities, temporarily occupied areas, and liberated territories.

In Ukraine, 248 children are currently considered missing since the beginning of the full-scale war with the Russian Federation, and 7,049 have been found, according to the “Children of War” state portal. In addition, 9,441 considered [illegally] deported and 96 – returned.

According to Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko, 483 kindergartens of various types and forms of ownership are currently operating in the capital. This is approximately 60% of the total number of establishments.

Russia continued shelling Ukrainian residential areas and civilian infrastructure. Oblast Military Administrations reported shelling in 7 Oblasts of Ukraine over the past day, including the following:

• At night   and   in   the   morning,   the   Russian   forces   shelled   the   Nikopol   district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ten high-rise and private residential buildings, utility buildings, a gas pipeline, and a household waste removal company were damaged in Nikopol. One injured civilian was reported in the Marganets community.
• Last day, the occupiers shelled Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 43 reports were received about the destruction of houses (apartments) and infrastructure facilities.
• On October 29, the enemy attacked the Mykolaiv Oblast. Agricultural enterprises, houses and garages were damaged. In Bashtan district, 1 residential building was destroyed, 2 houses were damaged.
• On October 29, 5 civilians were killed in Donetsk Oblast by enemy shelling: in Antonivka, Pervomaisky, Druzhba, Klishchiivka, and Elizavetivka. 8 more were injured. In addition, law enforcement officers found the bodies of five civilians who died during the occupation

– two in Koroviy Yar, two in Svyatogorsk, and one more in Lyman.

• During the past day, the enemy shelled Kupyansk (1 wounded), Chuguyiv and Kharkiv districts of the Kharkiv Oblast. In Kupyansk, a civilian industrial facility was damaged, and a large-scale fire broke out. The police reported 1 death because of the Russian shelling. A 39-year-old female resident of Volchanski Khutora did not have time to run home from the guests when the shelling began.

A school in the Kherson Oblast was destroyed due to a direct hit by a Russian missile, reported the head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration, Yaroslav Yanushevich. According to him, before the full-scale invasion of Russia and the occupation of the village of Osokorivka, 360

students attended this local school. Under the “New Ukrainian School” program, the educational institution received new equipment, laptops, projectors, printers, and furniture.

Occupied territories:

In Severodonetsk, which was almost completely destroyed, the Russian invaders accepted applications for compensation for destroyed housing from only 38 people, said the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Serhii Gaidai. According to Gaidai, up to 10,000 residents remain in Severodonetsk today. In the city, the housing stock has been destroyed by 80%, “not to mention the lack of infrastructure. However, during the four months of occupation, no one [of occupation authorities] even thought of restoring anything, even for propaganda purposes. Before the pseudo-referendum, they announced they would pay compensation for the destroyed housing, but the people never got the money,” he stressed.

During the so-called “evacuation” activities, the   Russian invaders   took   prisoners   from the Kherson colony (No. 90) and set up a base there. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy is using the territory of the mentioned correctional institution for the placement of personnel and military equipment.

According to Dmitry Orlov, Ukrainian mayor of Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian occupiers fired at the industrial zone of Energodar. Most of the city was left without electricity. Preliminary, one of the substations was hit.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is mainly on the previous day’s (October 29) developments)

It is the 249th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories and concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops. At the same time, it does not give up attempts to conduct the offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

During the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Oleksandropil, Kamianka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk Oblast.

The enemy continues shelling units of the Defense Forces along the contact line, fortifying its frontiers in certain directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance. The enemy strikes critical infrastructure, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of war. During the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 5 missile strikes and 23 air strikes, and carried out more than 100 rounds of anti-aircraft fire. This criminal activity affected more than 45 Ukrainian towns and villages, including Slovyansk and Siversk in the Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, and Novooleksandrivka in the Kherson Oblast. Near the state border, Rozhkovichi, Budky, Mezenivka,

Fotovyzh and Myropyllya of Sumy Oblast, Ternova, Vovchansk, Veterynarne, Vilkhuvatka, Gatyshche, Hryhorivka, Kamianka, Figolivka, Dvorichna, Starytsia, Ohirtseve, Strilecha and Chuhunivka of Kharkiv Oblast were shelled.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukrainians. The Russian Federation continues to transfer individual units to the territory of Belarus. Thus, on October 26, the arrival of an echelon of military equipment from the Russian Federation at the Brest railway station was observed. Together with the servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the so-called “Kadyrov combatants” arrived. In addition, Russian soldiers were spotted in settlements between the cities of Brest and Malorita. The threat of missile strikes and the use of attack UAVs from the territory of the Republic of Belarus continues to persist.

The Defense Forces aircraft during the day struck the enemy 32 times. Of them, 23 were at areas of concentration of enemy weapons and military equipment, 3 at platoon strongholds, and 6 at enemy air defense positions. In addition, Ukrainian air defense shot down an Iskander-K missile and two Orlan-10 UAVs.

Units of AFU missile troops and artillery hit 6 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, 3 ammunition warehouses, 2 air defense facilities and 9 other important military targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;

• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

Ukrainian troops consolidated successes and continued counteroffensive actions at the Svatove- Kreminna frontier and established full fire control over the main sections of the P66 road, which ultimately disrupts Russian logistics and supplies along this route.

Fighting continues on the Svatove-Kreminna line; Ukrainian troops are trying to break through to Kreminna and are accumulating forces for an attack. They attacked in the direction of

Chervonopopivka, where they killed 20 Russian soldiers and wounded another 30 with a precise strike.

Enemy troops conducted offensive operations east of the Kharkiv Oblast, inflicting damage on the accumulation of Ukrainian equipment in Tymkivka, Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and Khrokmalne. The enemy still holds positions east of the Oskil River up to the state border.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery at the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of Kyslivka, Krokhmalne, Grekivka, Zarichne, Novoyehorivka, Berestove, Nevske, Olhivka, Terny, Torske and Yampolivka.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled from tanks and artillery the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Zvanivka, Siversk, Zelenopillia, Soledar, Odradivka, New York, Vasyukivka, Serebryanka, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Vodyane, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske and Opytne.

Russian troops slowed down the pace of the offensive near Bakhmut, having recovered from the Ukrainian strike on October 28. Ukrainian Joint Forces launched a precision strike against Russian forces preparing for another attack south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk, killing approximately 300 Russian servicemen and wounding another 60 (evacuated to a medical facility in Horlivka). In general, Russian losses near Bakhmut since the beginning of the assaults in October are estimated at 8,000 KIA.

On October 28-29, Russian troops began an offensive on Vuhledar; they attacked in the direction of Pavlivka from positions to the south (near Yehorivka) and from the east (near Mykilske), broke through the first line of Ukrainian defense and reached the southeastern outskirts of Pavlivka.

On October 29, the Russian occupiers continued to increase the territory under their control near the city of Donetsk, entered the southeastern outskirts of Vodyane, captured a section of the M04 road and advanced near Nevelske and Pervomaiske.

Ukrainian Joint Forces repelled enemy attacks northeast of Avdiyivka near Kamianka, north of Donetsk near Vodyane, and northwest of Donetsk near Nevelske.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the positions of the Defense Forces and civil infrastructure in the areas of Vremivka, Vuhledar, Yehorivka, Mykilske, Novoukrainka, Pavlivka, Prechystivka, Hulyaipole, Nove, Dorozhnyanka, Zaliznychne, Zeleny Hai, Temyrivka, Olgivske, and Chervone.

In Velyka Znamyanka, the enemy continues to place personnel in the homes of local residents. International law considers “simulation of civilian status” to be an act of treachery, which is a violation of the laws of armed conflict.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
• Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd Army Corps of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Areas of about 20 towns and villages along the contact line were damaged by fire. Nikopol and Vyshchetarasivka in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Havrylivka in the Kherson Oblast were hit by enemy shelling from rocket and barrel artillery.

During the so-called “evacuation” activities, the occupiers removed the prisoners from the correctional colony No. 90 in Kherson. The enemy is using the correctional institution’s territory to place personnel and military equipment. In the Kherson area towns and villages, the enemy is taking measures to prepare for defense. The arrival of a company of Russian Guards from Grozny to Kalanchak was noted. On the territory of Nova Kakhovka, Russian special services are actively listening to the telephone conversations of the civilian population.

According to the Ukrainian Military Intelligence assessment, in this direction, the enemy has a grouping of up to 40,000 military personnel of well-trained military units of the Airborne Forces, marines, and SOF, supplemented by mobilized personnel.

The enemy continues to maintain defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River and transfers the mobilized personnel to the western bank, despite the fact that they are showing signs of low morale and lack of prior training. Russian military forces civilians to build fortifications.

The Russian troops shelled Davidiv Brid, Mala Seydemynukha and Kobzartsi. They repelled five Ukrainian attacks in the directions of Mylove, Sukhanove, Pyatykhatky, Ishchenko, Bruskinske and Sadok along the front line in the north of the Kherson Oblast, where combat operations are conducted by enemy units of the 126th separate coastal defence brigade and 11th separate airborne assault brigade.

Units of AFU missile troops and artillery destroyed three ammunition warehouses in the Beryslav and Mykolaiv districts and struck the Antoniv bridge.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

The enemy retains 10 ships and boats at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them are 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers: a project 11356R frigate and two small project 21631 missile ships with a total of 24 missiles.

Six enemy patrol ships and boats in the Sea of Azov waters are on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 war aircraft from Belbek and Saky airfields were deployed.

The attack on the Russian Navy ships on October 29 was the largest military action since the Novorossiysk battleship was blown up in Sevastopol Bay on October 29, 1955. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the attack on the Russian Navy ship near Sevastopol was probably carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, this is only a restrained response to the bombing of Ukrainian cities. ISW reminds that attacks on warships in wartime are legitimate acts of war and not terrorist attacks. Ukraine’s decision to strike Kalibr missile carriers at this time makes sense, given the intensification of Russia’s campaign of strikes at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

According to various data, 8-10 UAVs and 6-8 marine UAVs were involved in coordinated actions against the ships of the Russian Navy. During the attack, the frigate “Admiral Makarov”, the minesweeper “Ivan Golubets”, an amphibious ship and a missile corvette of the “Buyan-M” type were damaged. Various sources report 3-9 damaged ships. The fuel base of the Russian Air Force in Sevastopol was also damaged. It should be noted that even the Russian side recognized the penetration of three naval unmanned aerial vehicles into the internal raid of Sevastopol, which is very dangerous for a large number of the Russian Armed Forces forces based in Sevastopol.

“Grain Initiative”: The Joint Coordination Center(JCC) in Istanbul, which coordinates the work of the “grain initiative”, did not reach an agreement on the movement of ships through the “corridor” on October 30. According to the JCC, more than ten ships are waiting to enter the corridor. The coordination center is currently discussing further steps.

Due to Russia’s withdrawal from the “grain agreement”, the ship Ikaria Angel with 40,000 tons of grain for Ethiopia, could not leave the Ukrainian port today as planned, stated the Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov. “These products were intended for the people of Ethiopia, who are on the verge of starvation. But due to the closure of the “grain corridor” by Russia, export is impossible,” he wrote.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 30.10

Personnel – almost 71,200 people (+950);

Tanks – 2,672 (+13)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,453 (+52);

Artillery systems – 1,724 (+16);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 383 (+3); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 197 (+2); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,120 (+13); Aircraft – 274 (+1);

Helicopters – 252 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,412 (+6); Intercepted cruise missiles – 352 (+1);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

“The grain deal was thwarted by Zelensky and his terrorists, who British specialists lead to add food to the nuclear blackmail,” a chief propaganda mouthpiece of Russia’s Foreign Ministry said. In the Russian world, waging a war of aggression and deliberately targeting civilians and critical infrastructure is a regular business. At the same time, Ukraine’s self-defense and hitting warships launching cruise missiles on Ukrainian cities is called “terrorism.”

“Russia began deliberately aggravating the food crisis back in September when it blocked the movement of bulk carriers with our food. From September to today, 176 vessels have already accumulated in the grain corridor, which could not follow their route. Some grain carriers have been waiting for more than three weeks. This is a completely deliberate blockade of Russia. This is an absolutely transparent intention of Russia to return the threat of large-scale famine to Africa and Asia”, said Ukraine’s President.

According to the monitoring group of the BlackSeaNews and Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, in the period of 1–18 September, the average waiting time for the “grain fleet” vessels for inspection by the Joint Coordination Centre in the Sea of Marmara was 54 hours/vessel. However, in the period of 19–30 September, the average waiting time skyrocketed to 272 hours/vessel (it has increased by five times or 11,3 days for a ship).

Russia’s accusations that the UAF used the “grain corridor” to attack Russia’s warships in the harbor of Sevastopol are ridiculous because there is more than 220 km between the sea route edge and Sevastopol. Moreover, in the period of August 8 (the start of the grain transit) – October 22, Russian warships conducted at least 75 launches of cruise missiles on Ukrainian cities, including thirty launches on a single day on October 10. At least twice, Ukrainian Navy assets engaged in securing the grain corridor have been attacked by Russian warships.

“There’s no merit to what they’re doing. The UN negotiated that deal, and that should be the end of it,” Joe Biden said. “In suspending this arrangement, Russia is again weaponizing food in the war it started, directly impacting low- and middle-income countries and global food prices and exacerbating already dire humanitarian crises and food insecurity. We urge the Government of Russia to resume its participation in the Initiative, fully comply with the arrangement, and work to ensure that people around the world continue to be able to receive the benefits facilitated by the Initiative,” Antony Blinken stated.

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister called on the free world to enforce grain export with military escorts. “Negotiating with Russia doesn’t work. Putin breaks agreements and blackmails all of us. If he continues to jeopardize Ukraine’s grain exports, the free world must unite to safeguard shipping with military escorts. Let’s bypass the blackmail”, Gabrielius Landsbergis twitted. “President Putin must stop weaponizing food and end his illegal war on Ukraine,” NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said.

The “grain deal” has allowed to shipment of more than 9 million tons of grain by 397 bulker carriers. It helped to bring down global food prices, which have fallen about 15% from their peak in March. It’s crucial to cope with the global food crisis and soften hunger in developing countries; that’s why Russia is trying to use it as leverage.

“The readiness of Russia, including its president, for negotiations (“on Ukraine”) remains unchanged,” Sergey Lavrov said. He went on by saying that the talks are possible if Moscow is approached with “realistic proposals, based on the principles of equality and respect for each other’s interests, and aimed at finding compromises and balancing the interests of all countries.” Russia’s Foreign Minister repeated his narrative that the situation is “similar” to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 because of growing “security threats right on our borders” while Ukraine is being pumped up with weapons. His message is aimed at blackmailing the West with nuclear weapons, though his boss [President Putin] recently turned to a less threatening tone. The Kremlin’s spokesman said that negotiations “on Ukraine” should be conducted primarily with the US since Kyiv is acting “on orders from outside.” It’s just a typical Russian denial of Ukraine’s sovereignty and propaganda narrative that Russia’s war against Ukraine is the US “proxy” war against Russia. Russian propagandists are pushing the line that the US set up “a trap” and “made” Russia invade Ukraine.

“The only realistic proposal should be Russia’s immediate cessation of the war against Ukraine and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory beyond the borders as of 1991,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman replied to the Moscow “statements.”

Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin’s fixer, has announced setting up the Wagner PMC Centre in Saint Petersburg. He is an owner of the so-called Wagner Private Military Company, which mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine, Syria, and several African countries. A former chief cook of Putin also runs Internet troll factories. Now he wants to set up a space for “ideas generation” to boost Russia’s defense capabilities. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s company called on the [Russian] Prosecutor General to block Youtube in Russia because it “is flooded with fakes aimed at discrediting the Russian military, disseminates deliberately false information about the actions of the Russian Armed Forces, state authorities and administration, as well as patriotic forces.” Since Yevgeny Prigozhin remains one of the closest confidants of Vladimir Putin, his increased public activities might signal his bid for Putin’s favor in giving him more power and resources and, likely, choosing him as a successor.

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