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CDS Daily brief (31.10.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

Air raid sirens sounded throughout Ukraine this morning. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, starting at 07:00, the Russian military launched several waves of missile attacks on critical infrastructure objects throughout Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 44 out of 55 cruise missiles. Critical infrastructure objects were hit in Kharkiv, Cherkasy Oblast, Zaporizhzhya, Kyiv, etc. Parts of the Ukrainian railroad infrastructure were also cut off from electricity.

Missiles and drones launched by the Russians on the territory of Ukraine on Monday attacked 10 regions and damaged 18 facilities, most of which are energy facilities, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

Hits on critical infrastructure in Kyiv oblast resulted in a blackout in Kyiv and a part of Kyiv Oblast. Oleksiy Kuleba, head of Kyiv Oblast Military Administration, urged Kyiv Oblast residents to prepare for a long absence of electricity and save energy. Two people were injured during the strikes, and one of them was hospitalized in a severe condition.

Part of Kyiv was left without electricity, and about 80% of consumers had no water supplies, the city mayor Vitaliy Klychko said. The infrastructure object damaged in Kyiv Oblast supplies about 350 thousand apartments in Kyiv. Kyiv itself was not hit by missiles. As of 18:00, 270 thousand apartments in Kyiv still had no electricity and about 40% of its residents did not have running water.

In Cherkasy Oblast, the Russian missiles hit a critical infrastructure object, cutting off electricity in part of the region, Ihor Taburets, Head of Cherkasy Military Administration(OMA), said.

As a result of the morning missile attacks, the energy infrastructure facilities were hit in Dnipro and Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Head of Dnipropetrovsk OMA Valentin Reznichenko reported serious destruction.

Kharkiv was hit with S-300 missiles from the Russian city of Belgorod at around 8 a.m. A critical infrastructure object was hit, cutting the electricity supply to subway and ground electric transportation. The water supply was also interrupted.

Russian missiles hit one of the energy facilities in Svitlovodsk, Kirovohrad Oblast, Andriy Rajkovich, head of Kirovohrad OMA said. There were no casualties. A fire broke out.

A critical infrastructure object was also hit in Chernivtsi Oblast. Until this time, it was the only Ukrainian Oblast that had not come under Russian fire. Head of Chernivtsi State Administration Ruslan Zaparniuk said the damage was significant and maybe even critical, and the entire Ukrainian energy system will feel its consequences.

The local law enforcement reported that one missile shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses fell in the village of Naslavcha, Moldova. The missile was targeting the Dnister hydropower plant located near the border, the Ukrainian authorities said.

At night the Russian forces fired MLRS and launched UAVs at Nikopol District of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Marhanets community was affected the most with 40 shells hitting its residential and administrative buildings. A 31-year-old woman died. Another woman is injured. She is in the hospital, Head of Dnipropetrovsk OMA Valentyn Reznichenko said. In the Kamianka district, the enemy hit an energy infrastructure object with kamikaze drones, seriously damaging it.

Znob-Novgorod community of Shostka district, Sumy Oblast, was shelled from the Russian territory at night. No victims are reported.

The Russian forces fired MLRS at Kutsurubska community in Mykolayiv Oblast this morning. A village in the Shyrokinska community was hit by the Russian fire and a residential building was damaged.

Evacuation of people from the recently liberated parts of Kherson Oblast continues, assisted by the Kryvyi Rih Military Administration, its head Oleksandr Vilkul said. The Russian forces continuously shell the areas. Vilkul reported that on October 30, 33 people, including 2 babies, were evacuated from one of the front-line villages.

25 villages of Kharkiv Oblast are still under occupation, Kharkiv OMA recorded.

Occupied territories:

Russia-installed occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast continue their disinformation campaign. The de-facto Kherson administrator Volodymyr Saldo said that in connection with a possible strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, the evacuation zone is expanding by 15 km from the Dnipro and will affect the inhabitants of the left bank.

The Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation launched a criminal initiation into a possible “treason” against the so-called head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the so-called DPR Alexei Dikiy, and six more members of the operational-combat tactical formation “Cascade”. They face imprisonment for up to life.

The Russia-installed head of the occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, said that he had instructed to transfer the property of some organizations and individuals “connected with the Kyiv regime” to the property of the region, including Rusline Ltd., the Bakhchisarai plant “Stroyindustriya” and the shipbuilding plant “Zaliv”.

Operational situation

(please note that this part of the report is mainly on the previous day’s (October 30) developments)

It is the 250th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and does not give up attempts to conduct the offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Zelene of Kharkiv Oblast; Bilohorivka, Mykolaivka and Novoselivske in Luhansk Oblast; Avdiivka, Bakhmutske, Vesele, Vodyane, Mayorsk, Maryinka and Novobakhmutivka of Donetsk Oblast.

The Russian military continues to shell the Ukrainian troops along the contact line, fortify frontiers in certain directions, and conduct aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure. Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 4 missile strikes and 5 air strikes and fired over 90 MLRS rounds. More than 20 towns and villages were hit by the Russian fire, particularly Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, Nova Kamianka in Kherson Oblast, and Berezneguvate and Ochakiv in Mykolaiv Oblast. Near the state border, Halahanivka of Chernihiv Oblast, Pokrovka of Sumy Oblast, Hatyshche, Kamianka, Krasne, Ohirtseve, and Starytsya region of Kharkiv Oblast were shelled. Russian troops launched Kh-59 cruise missiles at Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and hit military infrastructure.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. The Russian Federation continues transferring individual units to the territory of this country. The threat of missile strikes and the use of attack UAVs from the territory of the Republic of Belarus persists.

Over the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 21 strikes against the enemy, including 15 on areas of enemy weapons and military equipment concentration, 2 on platoon strongholds, and 4 on anti-aircraft missile systems positions. Ukrainian air defense units shot down one Russian helicopter and one Su-25 assault aircraft.

Ukraine’s missile and artillery forces hit a command post and an anti-aircraft missile system.

According to unconfirmed Russian reports, Lieutenant General Andriy Mordvichev (commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District) replaced Colonel General Oleksandr Lapin as commander of the Central Military District as of October 30.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Tabaivka and Terny.

Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks on Pershotravneve, Tabaivka, and Berestove.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The Russian military fired tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Hrekivka, Kovalivka, Karmazynivka, Makiivka, Novoehorivka, Nevske, Ploshanka and Chervonpopivka in Luhansk Oblast and Zarichne and Yampolivka in Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops destroyed the bridge over the Krasna River in Krasnorichenske, Luhansk Oblast.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Mayorsk, Opytne, Siversk, Soledar, Spirne, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka and Pervomaiske with tanks and artillery.

Russian forces captured Vodiane and Pavlivka.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Vremivka, Vuhledar, Mykilske, Pavlivka, Paraskoviivka and Prechystivka of Donetsk Oblast and Dorozhnyanka, Malynivka, Novodanilivka, Olhivske and Pavlivka of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed an enemy ammunition depot, 5 pieces of weapons and military equipment of various types, and injured up to 120 servicemen.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd Army Corps of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Areas of more than 20 towns and villages along the contact line were hit by fire, including Bilohirka, Davydiv Brid, Myrne, Nova Kamianka, Pravdyne and Chervone in Kherson Oblast and Kiselyvka and Ternovi Pody in Mykolaiv Oblast.

The enemy is building up the engineering fortification of defensive positions in Bilozerka and Chornobayivka.

In the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, the Russian occupation forces continued to dismantle and remove the equipment of cellular communication towers to Donetsk Oblast to establish and expand the coverage of the so-called national communication operators.

Preparations for evacuating individual Russian units and military equipment from the right-bank part of Kherson Oblast are ongoing. For this purpose, the presence of watercraft in the river fleet is verified, pontoon crossings are built, and the serviceability and readiness of barges are periodically checked. Two of them were recently destroyed by the Ukrainian Defence Forces units in the Antonivsky Bridge.

Defense forces destroyed a convoy of enemy military equipment.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories. The Russian fleet has eight ships and boats at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them are 2 Kalibr cruise missile carriers: two Project 21631 small missile ships carrying a total of 16 missiles.

In the Sea of Azov waters, 6 patrol ships and boats are located on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

Railway freight trains arrive in Kherson Oblast from Crimea, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiiivka” stations.

The internal political situation in Crimea has changed towards more brutal police and counter- intelligence regimes due to the strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet ships in Sevastopol by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Russian side made ridiculous accusations that the drone strike on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol was allegedly made from civilian ships carrying grain.

There are huge queues at the Kerch Strait crossing, and up to 2,000 vehicles are standing in line on the side of the Krasnodar Krai.

The occupation authorities plan to complete the repair of the road from Crimea to Melitopol by the end of the year. Trains to Crimea run as a part of the so-called “Crimean Voyage” tour have been canceled for the next 3 dates.

“The Grain Initiative”:12 vessels left the ports of Greater Odesa on October 31, despite the Russian Federation’s statement that it was suspending participation in the grain agreement. As reported by the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, there are 354.5 thousand tons of agricultural products on board the ships, which are headed for the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe.

Now a caravan is forming 15 km from the Odesa coast, heading to Romania. “Among them is the bulk carrier IKARIA ANGEL with Ukrainian wheat for Ethiopia, which is on the verge of starvation. This is the seventh vessel chartered as part of the World Food Program under the auspices of the United Nations,” the Ministry said. At the same time, passage to Ukrainian ports for loading is allowed for four vessels that passed the JCC inspection the day before, which involved all parties, including representatives of the Russian Federation. The Russian delegation was informed that the grain initiative would continue without the Russian Federation. The Joint Coordination Council reported this on October 30 after a meeting in Istanbul. Also, yesterday afternoon, a meeting of the Secretariat of the United Nations took place, which gathered all delegations for a plenary session. “The delegations of Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations have agreed on the plan for the movement of vessels for October 31.

The UN delegation informed the delegation of the Russian Federation on behalf of the Secretariat of the JCC about the transfer per the procedures established by the Joint Coordination Council. According to the procedures, all participants coordinate their actions with their military and other relevant authorities to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the Joint Coordination Center said in a statement. The total tonnage of food exported from Odesa ports is approaching ten million tons.

The spokesman of the UN Secretary-General, Stéphane Dujarric, said that the grain agreement signed in Istanbul has indirectly helped to lift about 100 million people from extreme poverty.

On October 29, the Russian Federation announced it was ready to completely replace Ukrainian grain on the world market.

In a separate incident, Russian forces fired at civilian tugboats transporting a barge with grain near Ochakiv, Mykolayiv Oblast, the Operational Command “South” reported. Two crew members were killed, and one was injured but rescued. One crew member is missing.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 31.10

Personnel – almost 71,820 people (+620);

Tanks – 2,686 (+14)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,485 (+32);

Artillery systems – 1,728 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 383 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 197 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,128 (+8); Aircraft – 275 (+1);

Helicopters – 253 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,413 (+1); Intercepted cruise missiles – 352 (0); Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Commenting on the morning missile strikes, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, “Don’t justify these attacks by calling them a “response”. Russia is doing this because it still has missiles and a desire to kill Ukrainians.”

Ukraine signed the agreement on grain export with Turkey and the UN and continues to fulfill its obligations under this document, President Zelensky stressed.

Due to large-scale air alerts during working hours, Ukraine loses UAH 7.5 billion ($203 million) daily, head of the Verkhovna Rada Tax committee Daniil Hetmantsev said.

Russia, relevant news

Although it was announced that the partial mobilization in Russia is already completed, a presidential decree to this effect has yet to be published. When asked about the decree, President Putin’s spokesman Dmitriy Peskov dodged the question, saying that he would provide the information later, Ukrainian media reported with reference to the Russian RIA Novosti. Later in the day, Putin said he would consult with lawyers about whether such a decree is necessary. He repeated that the mobilization was completed. In the Russian legalistic system, however, the practice is for every decision to be formalized; therefore, such behavior creates uncertainty.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moldova declared an employee of the Russian embassy persona non grata. The Ministry said that the Russian attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure created increased risks and threats in the region and began to threaten Moldova. As a result, the employee of the Russian Embassy in Chisinau will have to leave the territory of Moldova. However, it is not specified who exactly will have to leave.

International company 3M Co. decided to completely withdraw its business from Russia and Belarus and is considering the possibility of selling its Alabuga SEZ and Volokolamsk production facilities – the Russian Interfax news agency reported, citing the company.

About 70,000 Russian citizens have opened bank accounts in Uzbekistan since the beginning of this year, and almost half of them permanently work and stay in the republic, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan said.

The Estonian authorities will expand the protected zone on the border with Russia from 10 to 300 meters to build additional border infrastructure facilities there, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the republic said.

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