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CDS Daily brief (03.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

More than 1,255 children were affected in Ukraine as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. As of the morning of November 3, 2022, the official number of child victims has not changed – 430. The number of injured has increased to more than 826.

Ukraine returned the fighters who defended “Azovstal”, reported the Head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak. Another exchange of prisoners of war took place today. 107 Ukrainian defenders from different military branches returned home, including three of the “Azov” regiment. 74 soldiers defended “Azovstal”.

According to the regional military administrations, 10 civilians were killed, and 16 were injured as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine during the past day, November 2, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko announced this on Telegram.

The army of the Russian Federation shelled eight regions of Ukraine during the past day, according to the consolidated information of the regional military administrations about the situation in the regions of Ukraine as of 9:00 a.m. on Thursday, November 3.

Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of November 3
  • At night, the Russians struck the energy and water infrastructure facilities in Kryvyi Rih of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In Pavlograd, the enemy targeted an industrial enterprise. A gas station burned down in Nikopol due to shelling. Shells also damaged houses, a college, a furniture factory, and an industrial enterprise.
  • On November 2, the enemy attacked the Vasylivskyi and Pologivskyi districts of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 16 reports were received about the destruction of houses (apartments) and infrastructure facilities.
  • In the morning, the enemy shelled the Krasnopilska community of Sumy Oblast with 7 mines. Preliminary no victims and destruction were reported.
  • On November 2, enemy shelling killed 3 civilians in Bakhmut and 1 in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast. 5 more were wounded.
  • In Mykolaiv Oblast, an agricultural enterprise, a transformer substation, a water tower, and electrical poles were damaged by shelling. A residential building was destroyed in the Bashtansky district.
  • Yesterday, around 11:00 p.m., the enemy hit Kharkiv with 3 rockets. In the Kyiv district, 1 rocket damaged a building and a trolleybus, and the rest of the rockets hit the ground. Preliminary no victims were reported. The Russians also shelled the Kupyanskyi (1 dead, 1 wounded), Chuhuivskyi (5 wounded), and Kharkivskyi districts of the Oblast. Residential and public buildings were damaged.

In Kharkiv, heating points are being installed in metro stations, basements, warehouses and schools, the mayor of the city, Ihor Terekhov, said. Residents would be able to cook food, charge phones, get water and medicine, and spend the night. Additionally, all city districts would set up tents with heating equipment.

Occupied territories:

In the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Luhansk Oblasts, pressure on the local population continues and the number of cases of disappearances of local residents has increased, stated Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, a representative of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, at a briefing at the Military Media Center. Also, according to him, the Russian occupiers continued to steal material and historical values from the occupied territories.

Operational situation

(please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 2) developments)

It is the 252nd day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces, and conducts offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Makiivka, Nevske and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast; Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Pavlivka and Prechistivka in Donetsk Oblast.

The enemy is shelling units of the Defense Forces along the contact line, carrying out frontier fortification in certain directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance. It continues to strike critical infrastructure, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of war. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has launched 3 missile and 24 air strikes, and carried out more than 80 MLRS rounds. More than 20 Ukrainian towns and villages were hit by the Russian military, including Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Kremenchuk in Poltava Oblast, Nevske in Luhansk Oblast, Vodyane, Vuhledar, Krasnohorivka and Nevelske in Donetsk Oblast, Smila in Cherkasy Oblast, Nova Kamianka in Kherson Oblast and Ternovy Pody in Mykolaiv Oblast. In the border areas, the enemy shelled Orlykivka and Murave in Chernihiv Oblast; Vilna Sloboda, Zapsilya and Kharkivka in Sumy Oblast; Alisivka, Ambarne, Anyskine, Gatyshche, Hlyboke, Zelene, Kozacha Lopan, Krasne, Mala Vovcha, Morokhovets, Ogirtseve, Okhrimivka, Sosnivka, Starytsia, Strilecha and Khrypuny in the Kharkiv Oblast.

There is still a threat of new strikes and the use of attack UAVs, particularly from the territory of the Republic of Belarus. The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces aircraft struck the enemy 21 times last day. Areas of concentration of enemy weapons and military equipment, as well as the position of the enemy’s air defense

equipment, were affected. Ukrainian Air defense forces shot down 10 “Shahed-136” attack drones and “Orlan” UAV.

Ukraine’s missile troops and artillery struck 5 areas of concentration of enemy manpower, weapons and military equipment, 2 ammunition warehouses and 3 other important military targets during the past day.

Two days ago, the enemy began transferring forces and equipment of the 67th separate special radio engineering regiment, consisting of 10-12 tactical groups, to the territory of Ukraine.

The Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus held an annual meeting of the Joint Board of Defense Ministries with the aim of strengthening the “joint military potential” of the Union State of Russia and Belarus to counter the “challenges and threats” of a military nature imposed by NATO.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

The Russian opposition publication “Mediazona” reported that the Russian troops are restoring camps with poor living conditions in Perevalsk, Luhansk Oblast, to hold the contract and mobilized servicemen who refuse to fight. The Russian forces used to have camps in Perevalsk, until they closed them in August after a protest by families of servicemen. The enemy command forces mobilized men to serve on the front lines or to join units of the “Wagner” PMC.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of Berestove, Dvorichna, Kamianka, Krokhmalne and Figolivka of the Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukrainian Defense forces continued counteroffensive actions in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna. Russian troops repulsed the assaults to the northwest of Svatove near Mykolaivka, Orlyanka of the Kharkiv Oblast and near Kuzemivka of the Luhansk Oblast, and the attack to the northwest of Kreminna in the direction of Makiivka, Ploshanka, and Chervonopopivka.

Ukrainian Defense forces are trying to get to Chervonopopivka to cut the road between Kreminna and Svatove.

Units of the Defense Forces repelled Russian assaults in the direction of Kreminna in the area of Makiivka, Nevsky, and Bilohorivka.

The enemy attacked to the west and south of Kreminna to restrain the counteroffensive actions of Ukrainian troops in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.

In the temporarily occupied territory of the Luhansk Oblast, units of the Russian occupation forces continue to use the civilian population as “human shields”. Thus, in Svatove, the occupiers continue to place their units in schools and businesses, and the local population is forced to continue working and sending children to classes, despite shelling.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery at the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of Grekivka, Nevske, Ploshanka and Sukhodil in the Luhansk Oblast and Terna and Yampolivka in the Donetsk Oblast.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled from tanks and artillery the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Belohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Zelenopillya, Mayorsk, New York, Opytne, Rozdolivka, Siversk, Soledar, Spirne Kamianka, Maryinka, Nevelske, Novomykhailivka and Pervomaiske of the Donetsk Oblast. In addition, Russian troops struck Ukrainian targets on the western outskirts of Maryinka.

The aggressor continued offensive actions around Bakhmut and in the Avdiyivka-Donetsk area, but the Ukrainian Joint Forces repelled Russian assaults on Bakhmut itself and near Verkhnyokamyanske, Spirne, Mayorsk, Pervomaiske, and Novomykhailivka.

Units of the “Wagner” PMC are trying to break through the Ukrainian defenses in Soledar and Bakhmut; intense battles are taking place on the approaches to both cities.

The enemy struck near Pavlivka, Vodyane and Prechystivka. On the night of November 2, they attacked Ukrainian infrastructure objects with rockets and Iranian Shahed-136 in Vuhledar and Vodyane. This is the first confirmed use of the “Shahed-136” UAV in the Vuhledar area.

Russian troops suffered losses near Vuhledar. The fighting around Pavlivka has slowed but has not stopped, as Russian troops cannot overcome Ukrainian defenses. The enemy consolidated their positions near Novomykhailivka to attack Vuhledar from the east and cut the road in Novomykhailivka.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the Defence Forces’ positions in Bohoyavlenka, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Novopil, and Pavlivka of the Donetsk Oblast, Dorozhnianka, Mala Tokmachka, Malynivka, Novoandriivka, Pavlivka, Stepove, and Shcherbaky of the Zaporizhia Oblast.

In recent days, the Ukrainian military’s offensive actions made Russian troops transport more than 100 seriously wounded personnel to hospitals in Tokmak and Melitopol.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps of the Southern Military District; 35th

and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd Army Corps of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Areas of more than 30 towns and villages along the contact line were affected by the fire damage.

Russian troops are trying to hold their positions and are conducting defensive actions. The enemy is installing precast concrete bunkers in Hola Prystan and concrete bunkers in Kakhovka.

Russian reconnaissance groups clashed with Ukrainian troops near Dudchany.

Ukrainian troops made an unsuccessful attempt to break through Russian defenses in the Kherson Oblast. Russian troops repelled attacks in the direction of Ishchenka, Bruskynske, Sukhanove and Pyatykhatky.

Ukrainian troops continued to block concentration areas of Russian forces, logistics hubs and vehicles in the Kherson Oblast.

Russian occupying forces continued the forced “evacuation” of the population in the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, mainly residents along the left bank of the Dnipro River from Velyka Znamyanka in the Zaporizhia Oblast to Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson Oblast. The Russian occupiers continue to steal and take away ambulances and equipment from hospitals in Hola Prystan to the city of Skadovsk.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

There are 10 ships and boats on combat duty in the open sea, among which there is one Kalibr missile carrier (small missile ship project 21631); the total salvo is 8 missiles.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 03.11

Personnel – almost 74,000 people (+730);

Tanks – 2,734 (+20)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,552 (+27);

Artillery systems – 1,755 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 390 (+3); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 198 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,162 (+9); Aircraft – 277 (0);

Helicopters – 258 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,442 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 397 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Ukrainian Parliament adopted the state budget for 2023. The GDP growth forecast is 3.2%. Revenues – 1.3 trillion UAH, expenses – 2.6 trillion UAH. Most of it is for defense (1 trillion hryvnias). The budget deficit is 20% of GDP. To cover it, Ukraine needs $38 billion of assistance. Inflation is 28%.

At a meeting in Kyiv, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal informed the UN and USAID’s representatives about the regions’ needs for the winter period and the need for humanitarian aid. He hopes they will help provide mobile boiler houses, generators, and other equipment, particularly for the repair of energy infrastructure.

Microsoft will provide $100 million in technology assistance to Ukraine, said Brad Smith, vice president of the company. Since the beginning of the war, Microsoft’s total assistance to Ukraine has been over $400 million.

The total loss of Naftogaz of Ukraine in the first half of 2022 amounted to UAH 57.16 billion. As the company’s press service reported, “Naftogaz of Ukraine has published consolidated financial statements for the first half of 2022, which independent international auditors reviewed,” the message reads. At the same time, Naftogaz emphasizes that starting from April, despite active hostilities, the company was able to adapt to new conditions and secured a profit of UAH 420 million in the second quarter of 2022.

International diplomatic aspect

Ukraine managed to return 107 POWs, seventy-four of whom were heroic defenders of the Azovstal. One of the soldiers is a survivor of Russia’s barbaric murder of at least 53 Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka, Donetsk region. Russians didn’t allow any international organizations, including the Red Cross, to visit the place and investigate the war crime independently.

Russia has damaged power lines connecting Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, to the Ukrainian grid. The backup diesel generators can feed the cooling system for two weeks. The development “again demonstrates the plant’s fragile and vulnerable situation… it’s clearly not a sustainable way to operate a major nuclear facility. Measures are needed to prevent a nuclear accident at the site. The establishment of a nuclear safety and security protection zone is urgently needed,” stated the IAEA Director-General.

“Based on the evaluation of the results available to date and the information provided by Ukraine, the Agency did not find any indications of undeclared nuclear activities and materials at the locations,” was stated by the IAEA after in-field verification activities at three locations in Ukraine at the request of the Government of Ukraine. “The inspectors also collected

environmental samples for analysis at the IAEA’s safeguards laboratories and its network of analytical laboratories. Environmental sampling is a commonly used safeguards measure with ultrasensitive analytical techniques that can provide information about past and current activities related to the handling of nuclear materials,” reads the statement. So, the independent investigation mission proved Russians are lying about Ukraine’s intention to produce and use “a dirty bomb.”

The UN Security Council overwhelmingly rejected Russia’s attempt to set up an investigation commission for its disinformation claims that Ukraine and the United States are carrying out “military biological” activities that violate the convention prohibiting the use of biological weapons. China sided with Russia on the vote. For some reason, a Russian diplomat accused a “colonial mentality,” countries rejecting the false claims. He got a response from the US Permanent Representative, clarifying that the US voted against the resolution “because it is based on disinformation, dishonesty, bad faith, and a total lack of respect for this body.”

“Putin continues to rely on his cabal of the selected elite to maintain control of his industrial complex and fuel his illegal invasion of Ukraine. Today we are sanctioning an additional four oligarchs who rely on Putin for their positions of authority and in turn fund his military machine”, stated the UK government. The term “oligarch” is hardly applicable to those who were allowed by Putin’s regime to gain or keep previously obtained fortune, and neither fully own it nor can refuse to spend it as the Kremlin wishes. Moreover, those people can’t convert their money into influence over Putin’s decisions. Anyway, they’re part of the criminal regime. This time the blacklist is enriched by Abramov and Frolov, known for owning major stakes in Russian steel manufacturer Evraz, while Shaimiev and Shigabutdinov are connected to major petrochemical company AO TAIF.

Spain will deliver a new package of military assistance, including a battery of the Aspide anti- aircraft missile system, Hawk air-defense systems, anti-tank missile systems, and ammunition for them. Cambodia will send deminers to help train Ukrainians in clearing land mines. Being one of the heavily mined countries after three decades of war, Cambodia has the considerable experience that could significantly help Ukraine. Elon Musk “told me personally that he will continue to support Ukraine and continue to provide Starlink to Ukraine,” said Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation. Earlier, the eccentric American entrepreneur had asked the Pentagon to take the financial burden of providing Ukraine with equipment and services. Starlink has been a crucially important component of Ukrainian defense since the all-out Russian.

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