CDS Daily brief (04.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

The army of the Russian Federation shelled nine regions of Ukraine during the past day, according to the consolidated information of the regional military administrations about the situation in the regions of Ukraine as of 9:00 a.m. on Friday, November 4.

Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of November 4:

• In the morning, air defense forces shot down an Iranian kamikaze drone over Lviv Oblast. No victims or destruction were recorded.
• 8 Shaheds were shot down in the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. At the same time, the enemy shelled with “Grads” and heavy artillery Nikopolska, Myrivska, Chervonohrygorivska, and Marganets communities. No victims were reported. Residential buildings, cars, and a gas pipeline were damaged in the Chervonogryhorivska community.
• During November 3, the occupiers fired at the Kupyansk, Izyum, and Chuhuyiv districts of the Kharkiv Oblast. In Kupyansk, a residential building and the administrative building of a farm were damaged.
• On November 3, 8 civilians were killed by enemy shelling in Donetsk Oblast: 5 – in Bakhmut, 1 – in Pokrovsk, 1 – in Nelipivka, and 1 – in Krasnohorivka. Another 14 people were injured.
• At night, the enemy shelled one of Mykolaiv’s neighbourhoods with S-300 missiles. The warehouse was destroyed, and the administrative building and nearby cars were damaged. In the Mykolaiv district – 2 residential buildings were damaged.
• At night, the enemy shelled the populated areas of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A gas pipe in the open area was damaged. The fire that broke out was extinguished.
• On November 3, the Russian occupiers shelled the Shalyginsk community of Sumy Oblast. A local farm was damaged. In the Seredyno-Budsk community, a Russian shell pierced the roof of a private house and got stuck in the floor.

In the liberated village of Vysokopilya, Kherson Oblast, law enforcement officers discovered the bodies of three civilians who were tortured and shot by the Russians, reported the Prosecutor General’s Office.

Today, one of DTEK’s energy enterprises was hit by rocket fire, the company’s press service reports. No victims were reported, but the company’s equipment was significantly damaged. This is already the 12th attack on DTEK power plants in the last month.

Due to the overload of the central node of the energy system of Ukraine in Kyiv, 450,000 apartments remained without electricity this morning, Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said.

In each district of Kyiv, an average of 100 heating points will be prepared in case of critical damage to the heating system. Overall, around a thousand heating points will be formed before the

beginning of winter, said the Director of the Department of Municipal Security, Roman Tkachuk. According to the official, they will be equipped with everything necessary: heat, lighting, bathrooms, dining rooms, places to rest, and stocks of warm clothes and blankets. In the buildings of such social facilities, there are protective shelters to go to in case of an air raid alarm. In addition, the points will be equipped with emergency power generators and heat guns. If necessary, emergency medical personnel will be on duty nearby.

Occupied territories:

There are currently three ways to leave the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, said Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov in an interview with Ukrinform. “Through Crimea, then to Georgia or European countries. The road takes about 5 days, but many residents of the occupied territories use this route as the main one.” Another route is through the [so-called] “DPR” (Mariupol – Novoazovsk), but it is psychologically difficult and the most dangerous and requires going through filtering. According to his calculations, Fedorov also said that less than 50% (no more than 50-60 thousand) of Melitopol residents remain in the city.

According to information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian children were taken from boarding schools in Kherson to the territory of Crimea. They were placed in one of the psychiatric hospitals in Simferopol. Prisoners of the Kherson colony were also transported to the territory of the Crimean Peninsula.

In the temporarily captured Energodar, where the Zaporizhzhya NPP is located, the Russian invaders are going around the apartments and stopping people on the street to conduct the so- called “population census”, wrote Dmytro Orlov, [legally elected Ukrainian] mayor of Energodar, on his Telegram. In addition to passport data and contact numbers of people who remained in the city, they are also required to provide data on relatives who have left. It is noted that the so- called “census” ends with a search of the apartment and a meticulous study of all applications on mobile phones.

Operational situation

(please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 3) developments)

It is the 254th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces, and conducts offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces have repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane and Pavlivka of the Donetsk Oblast. The enemy is shelling units of the Defense Forces along the contact line; carrying fortification of their frontiers in certain directions and conducting aerial reconnaissance.

The Russian military continues to strike critical infrastructure, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of war. The enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 28 air strikes, and more than 45 attacks from rocket launchers. These criminal actions affected about 30 towns and villages of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson and other Oblasts. Near the state border, the enemy shelled Volfyna of Sumy Oblast, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Bilohorivka, Veterynarne, Gatyshche, Chugunivka and Uda of Kharkiv Oblast.

The threat of new strikes and the use of strike UAVs remains. In particular, from the territory of the Republic of Belarus, which continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.

In the temporarily occupied territories, the Russian occupiers continued to violate the norms of international humanitarian law, laws and customs of war. In the village of Pisky, Starobilsk district of Luhansk Oblast, representatives of the so-called military commander’s office conducted filtering measures against the local population. About 30 citizens were kidnapped and taken to an unknown destination. Similar events happened in towns and villages along the Oleshka – Nova Kakhovka highway of the Kherson Oblast. In addition, the traffic of trucks and cars with looted property increased on the roads of the Kherson Oblast. A lot of robberies are taking place in Beryslav and nearby villages. In particular, the property and repair base are looted from power grid maintenance enterprises. In the village of Topolivka, the Russian occupiers are using a local school and a kindergarten as a “human shield”, where they located up to three hundred enemy soldiers and equipment.

The Defense Forces aircraft during the past day struck the enemy 21 times. 20 areas of concentration of enemy weapons and military equipment, as well as the position of the enemy’s air defense equipment, were affected. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 3 “Shahed-136” UAVs.

During the day, Ukraine’s missile troops and artillery units of the Defense Forces hit the enemy’s control post, 4 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, an ammunition warehouse, an EW station, mine-explosive barriers and other important enemy military targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;

• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The operational situation is unchanged.

Kramatorsk direction

• Balakleya – Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

The enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery at the Defence Forces’ positions in Myasozharivka, Zvanivka, Rozdolivka, Siversk, Verkhnyokamianske, Serebryanka, Novoyehorivka and Yampolivka.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

From tanks and artillery, the enemy shelled the areas of Bakhmut, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, Ozaryanivka, Kurdyumivka, Mayorsk, Ivangrad, Soledar, Opytne, Zelenopillia, Avdiivka, Oleksandropil, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the

42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the Defence Forces’ positions in Prechistivka, Vodyane, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Hulyaipole, Dorozhnyanka, Novoandriivka, Olhivske, Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
• Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd Army Corps of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Areas of more than 25 towns and villages along the contact line were damaged by fire. In addition, the enemy continued aerial reconnaissance, actively used UAVs, made up to thirty sorties.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

The enemy has seven ships and boats at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them, for the first time in a long time, there is not a single carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles. Most likely, out of 11 such ships (3 frigates, 4 missile corvettes, and 4 patrol ships), 3 (a frigate and two corvettes) can be combat-ready at the moment. 2 ships (a frigate and a corvette) are in the Mediterranean Sea. 2 ships were damaged on October 29 during a drone attack. 4 patrol ships, despite the declared technical capability, are most likely not yet capable of firing Kalibr. Nevertheless, a rapid build-up of surface and underwater carriers of Kalibr missiles in the launch areas, with up to 40 missiles, is possible.

There are 6 patrol ships and boats in the waters of the Sea of Azov on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 10 warplanes from Belbek and Saka airfields were deployed.

Russia began to admit that as a result of the sinking of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser “Moskva”, more than one sailor died. Relatives of sailors managed to prove this only through a court case. In Sevastopol, the so-called “court” of the occupiers found 17 people dead. Meanwhile, the actual number of casualties per ship on April 13-14 2022, may be significantly higher.

The Russian Federation rotated the surface grouping of ships of the Pacific and Northern fleets in the Mediterranean Sea, which it deployed in February 2022 before the start of aggression against Ukraine (18 ships and vessels, including 2 cruisers of project 1164). Most of those ships and vessels returned to their bases in August and October. Currently, there are 8 ships of the Russian Federation from the Black Sea, Northern and Baltic Fleets and 2 support vessels in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, two project 20380 corvettes of the Baltic Fleet (with Kh-35 missiles) arrived to replace them. It is possible that the Russian submarine missile carrier of project 949A is also in the Mediterranean Sea. Turkey does not allow these ships to enter the Black Sea based on its powers under the Montreux Convention. Their combat potential is probably equal to the previous group, and their strike capabilities are mainly focused on combating surface targets.

The head of the occupation authorities of Sevastopol, Razvozhaev, reported to Putin in Moscow about the situation in Sevastopol, in particular regarding shipbuilding. He proposed to expand the production of marine and underwater drones for various purposes in Sevastopol.

“Grain Initiative”: Seven ships with 290,000 tons of Ukrainian agricultural products left the ports of Great Odesa on November 3. As reported by the press service of the Ministry of Infrastructure, they are heading to the countries of Asia and Europe. Among the ships is the tanker ESENTEPE, which will deliver 29,000 tons of sunflower seeds to Oman, and the ship KEY KNIGHT, which carries 67,000 tons of corn for China. It is emphasized that in October, export volumes could have been 30-40% higher if Russia had not artificially blocked inspections in the Bosphorus.

Despite the return to the “grain agreement”, the authorities of the Russian Federation again stated that they have not yet decided their position regarding the extension of the agreement after November 16. In this way, the Russian Federation continues to blackmail and put artificial pressure on Ukraine, the UN and countries that need Ukrainian agricultural products.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 04.11

Personnel – almost 74,840 people (+840);

Tanks – 2,750 (+16)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,580 (+28);

Artillery systems – 1,772 (+17);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 391 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 201 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,174 (+12); Aircraft – 277 (0);

Helicopters – 258 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,450 (+8); Intercepted cruise missiles – 397 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Next year’s state budget of Ukraine will be half financed from its own resources, and international partners will help with the rest of the financing, announced Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during the government meeting on November 4. “We will cover the deficit of 38 billion dollars with the help of our partners. In particular, the United States, the European Union and the IMF,” Shmyhal said. He noted that during recent meetings in Berlin, the government received assurances from the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that the EU will allocate 18 billion euros to Ukraine next year in the form of macro-financial assistance. “We also have progress in negotiations with the IMF. We expect to start a new major cooperation program in 2023,” Shmyhal stressed.

The IT industry in Ukraine has grown by 13% since the beginning of the year, and exports have increased by 23%, as reported by the press service of the Ministry of Economy.

Ukrainian farmers have finished harvesting grain and leguminous crops from 72% of the [agricultural] area; 32.6 million tons of grain have already been threshed, reported the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.

International diplomatic aspect

G7 condemned Russia’s recent escalation, including its attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure using missiles, Iranian drones, and trainers. Russia was blamed for terrorizing the civilian population. “Indiscriminate attacks against civilian population and infrastructure constitute war crimes and we reiterate our determination to ensure full accountability for these and crimes against humanity,” the statement reads. In addition, G7 established a coordination mechanism aimed at helping Ukraine repair, restore and defend its critical energy and water infrastructure.

The Group called unacceptable “Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” and warned of severe consequences should the Kremlin decides to use chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. In addition, the leaders rejected “Russia’s false claims that Ukraine is preparing a radiological “dirty bomb.”

The US will provide Ukraine with the $400 million assistance package, including 1,100 Phoenix Ghost kamikaze drones, funding to refurbish 45 tanks and an additional 40 riverine boats, and

Hawk air defense systems. The Netherlands is financing the refurbishment of another 45 Czech Т-72 tanks. Greece will send an undisclosed number of BMP-1 IFVs. The Bulgarian Parliament approved (175 – aye, 49-no) sending the country’s first military aid to Ukraine.

In a message marking Russia’s Day of National Unity, a former so-called liberal President Dmitriy Medvedev said the task of the Fatherland was to “stop the supreme ruler of Hell, whatever name he uses – Satan, Lucifer or Iblis.” It seems he decided to pick up a notion voiced by Alexander Dugin, who supported Ramzan Kadyrov’s call for jihad against Ukraine. Dugin believes Russia is fighting a “holy war against the satanic West,” a “final apocalyptic, eschatological battle against the antichrist.” So, “jihad” and “a holy war” are added to the long list of reasons for Russia’s aggressive war and genocide of the Ukrainian people that includes, particularly, the “genocide” of Russians, intentions to “attack” Russia, development of a “dirty bomb” and “combat mosquitos.”

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin said that “we [Russians?] always have (and even now) treated Ukrainians with respect and warmth.” He expressed his “bitterness” because “now we are essentially fighting with each other, in fact, the confrontation is going on within one nation. The situation has become deadly for Russia and suicidal for the Ukrainian people. We see how they are thrown into the furnace as if Ukrainians do not exist”. He claimed that Ukrainians “are the main victim of the deliberate sublimation of hatred towards Russians.”

The volatile mood of the Russian rulers, from denying the very existence of the Ukrainian nation to expressing “respect and warmth” in the foreground of numerous war crimes and acts of genocide, is a pretty “favorable” setting for a “negotiated” solution.

Russia, relevant news

Putin signed a law that allows the mobilization of Russians with unexpunged convictions for serious crimes, the Russian media reported. It will now be possible to send to war those who have recently served time for murder, robbery, and drug trafficking.

318,000 people have been mobilized in Russia, of which 49,000 are already in Ukraine, Putin said. The Infinity car company has announced its exit from the Russian market. The supply was temporarily suspended back on March 9.

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