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CDS Daily brief (05.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

Schedules of emergency power outages were introduced today in 7 Oblasts, namely Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Kharkiv and Poltava as well as in the city of Kyiv.

Three civilians were killed and eight were wounded in Ukraine during the day of November 4 as a result of Russian aggression, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.

As of 9 a.m. this morning, Oblast Military Administrations reported that the Russian army struck nine regions of Ukraine over one day.

  • Vinnytsia Oblast was attacked by kamikaze drones at night. Air defense forces were working.
  • In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, after midnight today, the Russian military attacked one of the villages in Vilnyanskiy district with S-300 missiles. The buildings of three enterprises and cars were damaged.
  • In Sumy Oblast bordering on the Russian Federation, the Russian military shelled a village in the Krasnopillya community at night. There was no information about victims or the destruction of infrastructure facilities. During the previous day, the Russian forces fired 70 shells and mines at 5 communities in Sumy Oblast.
  • In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian troops again attacked the Nikopol district at night, shelling Marhanetska, Chervonohryhoryvska, and Nikopol communities. 14 high-rise and private buildings were damaged in Nikopol, as well as other civilian infrastructure facilities.
  • In Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy shelled Kupyansk, Kharkiv, Chuhuyiv and Bogodukhiv districts located near the border with the Russian Federation and the contact line.
  • In Donetsk Oblast, late yesterday evening, the Russian forces shelled Pokrovsk and Kurakhivka village of the Kurakhiv community. Private houses were destroyed and damaged. At night, Russians hit Druzhkivka with rockets. Throughout the night, the enemy shelled the communities of Vuhledar, Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Ocheretynska. Three people died and eight were injured in Donetsk Oblast during the day.
  • In Mykolayiv Oblast, a settlement in Shirokivska community was shelled this morning, three houses and the administrative building of an agricultural enterprise were damaged.

Around 2 p.m., on November 5 the Russian forces opened fire with mortars on the Seredyna- Buda community in Sumy Oblast. 9 mines exploded near civilian houses. There is considerable destruction: demolished walls and roofs. According to preliminary information, 4 houses and farm buildings were damaged, the head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration, Dmytro Zhivytskyi said.

As a result of the POW exchanges that have taken place since the beginning of the Russian large- scale aggression against Ukraine, a total of 268 National Guard servicemen were released, including 24 women, the National Guard reported.

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian railways have evacuated over 4 million people, a million children, 120 thousand animals, and transported more than 200 diplomatic delegations and 300 thousand humanitarian shipments, Oleksandr Kamyshin, chairman of the board of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” said.

Occupied territories:

Financial Times reported that the Russian occupying forces publicly executed a 56-year-old local resident, nurse Tetyana Mudrenko, for shouting “Skadovsk is Ukraine!” in the occupied Skadovsk of Kherson Oblast

Russian occupying authorities deported 12 children from the Oleshky boarding school in the captured territory of Kherson Oblast to the temporarily occupied Crimea. Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, said.

About 700 people were forcefully moved from Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast. The number was reported by the occupying authorties.

Russian citizen Dmitriy Berdnikov, former mayor of Yakutsk and Irkutsk, became the new de facto mayor of Mariupol. He was transferred from the position of the first deputy head of the government of the Republic of Yakutia in the Russian far east. As an advisor to the legally elected Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko noted, the reason for the “change of leader” is an internal political struggle. The real reason voiced directly to the Russia-appointed temporary head of the occupation “administration” of Mariupol Konstantin Ivashchenko is a complete failure of preparations for the winter period and embezzlement of funds on too large a scale.

Operational situation

(please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 4) developments).

It is the 254th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces, and conducts offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Spirne, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Ivanhrad, Klishchiivka,

Ozaryanivka, Mayorsk, Kamianka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka and Pavlivka in Donetsk Oblast.

The Russian military continues to shell the Ukrainian troops along the contact line, fortifies frontiers in certain directions and conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure. Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 6 missile strikes and 21 air strikes and fired over 60 MLRS rounds. The Russian fire hit areas around more than 20 Ukrainian towns and villages in Lviv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia Oblasts. Near the state border, the Russin military shelled Hrynivka, Liskivshchyna, Karpovychi, Tymonovychy, Leonivka in Chernihiv Oblast; Katerynivka, Novomykolaivka and Zapsilya in Sumy Oblast; Zolochiv, Hlyboke, Starytsia and Ohirtseve in Kharkiv Oblast.

The threat of missile strikes and the use of attack UAVs persists, specifically from the territory of the Republic of Belarus. The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. It receives and accommodates Russian servicemen and provides training grounds. It is also known that the units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are being replenished on the territory of the Republic of Belarus with the mobilized persons arriving from the territory of Russia. Combat training and coordination of these units will last for about two to three weeks.

Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces aircraft made 11 strikes against the enemy. 4 areas of weapons and military equipment concentration and 7 anti-aircraft missile systems positions were hit. Over the past day, the Ukrainian air defense units shot down one Russian “Orlan-10” UAV, 11 “Shakhed-136” assault UAVs and 2 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Ukraine’s missile and artillery forces hit 2 Russian command posts, 7 weapons and military equipment concentration areas, 1 ammunition depot, and 4 other important Russian military targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Dvorichna, Kyselivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, Berestove, Vyshneve, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka and Nevske.

The Russian military command is trying to improve the situation in the Svatove area and reverse the negative trend. In addition to counterattacks to the west and north-west of Kreminna, the Russian forces conducted a series of attacks in the directions of Ploshanka – Makiivk and Ploshanka – Nevske over the past two days.

The Russian military concentrated up to three BTGs from the composition of the 3rd motorized rifle division of the 20th Army and reinforced them with formations akin to infantry companies – battalions of the mobilization reserve of the so-called LPR, assault detachments of the “Wagner” PMC and the remnants of the BARS detachments. It then tried to attack the left flank of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the forests west of Zhytlivka and Chervonopopivka, but failed to break through to Makiivka and Nevske.

Kramatorsk direction
  • Balakleya Siversk section: approximate length of the combat line – 184 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17-20, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • 252nd and 752nd motorized rifle regiments of the 3rd motorized rifle division, 1st, 13th, and 12th tank regiments, 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, 35th, 55th and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, 2nd and 4th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, PMCs.

Over the last few days, the Russian command tried to push the units of the Defense Forces in the Bilohorivka area back as much as possible towards Verkhnokamyanske and to the west near the village of Spirne. The Russin military employed the BTGs from the 55th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st Army, four BARS detachments (in general – up to the battalion), units of the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps. As a result, it was able to advance along Siversky Donets and occupy the northeastern part of the Bilohorivka and get a foothold there. Periodically, to strengthen the attacks, platoon units, staffed by mobilized and recruited from among convicts, were used.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas of Spirne, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Ivanhrad, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Zelenopillia, Ozaryanivka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Paraskoviivka and Novomykhailivka with tanks and artillery.

To the north of the Soledar-Bakhmutske area, a Russian tactical grouping formed mainly from units of the 2nd Army Corps’ mobilization reserve and reinforced by assault platoons of the “Wagner” PMC reached the gypsum quarry and the “Knauf” plant. Still, it was forced to stop and retreat in some places.

On the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut (in the direction of Pokrovske – Patris Lumumba St.), the Russian forces failed to advance beyond the intersection of M-03 – H-32 roads. However, separate Russian units advanced to the Bakhmut city landfill and Maksimenko Street. Separate units the size of a detachment infiltrated the private sector in the southeastern part of the city. The presence of “Wagner” PMC is manned both with prison inmates and professional mercenaries with extensive combat experience in different countries. In some areas, they are reinforced by tanks and other armored vehicles from the composition of the “Diesel” tank battalion of the 1st Army Corps and two combined battalions from the composition of the 2nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps and the 31st separate airborne assault brigade of the Russian Armed Forces. Losses are promptly replenished by newly mobilized through the distribution battalion of the mobilization reserve of the 2nd Army Corps.

To the south of Bakhmut, the Russian command deployed the “League” and “Redut” PMC units, a large part of the joint BTG from the 336th separate marines brigade, the remnants of two mobilization reserve battalions of the 2nd Army Corps with the task of breaking through to the Klishchiivka – Andriivka frontier and further on to Ivanivske. The goal is to further block Bakhmut from the south, making its defense extremely difficult. At the same time, it was planned to break through Ivanhrad and Opytne into the city itself from the south. However, in a series of counterattacks, units of the Ukrainian Joint Forces pushed the enemy back to the T-0513 road in the direction of Zaitseve in the section between Opytne and Odradiivka, making it possible that the Ukrainian troops could move further to the rear of this tactical grouping.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the

42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Vodyane, Bohoyavlenka, Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Novosilka, Olhivske, Hulyaipole, Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky.

On November 3, about 80 wounded Russian occupiers arrived in the city of Melitopol. Russian medical units lack qualified personnel, in particular surgeons. Moreover, the medical staff they have is not able to provide quality medical care.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd Army Corps of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

The Russian fire hit areas of more than 20 towns and villages along the contact line. Tryfonivka of Kherson Oblast and Nikopol of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were directly affected by the Russian rocket and barrel artillery fire.

The Russian military continues to suffer losses. According to updated information, a tugboat was destroyed as a result of fire damage to an enemy crossing near Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, on November 3. Two other vessels were damaged and require repair. It was also confirmed that the Russian convoy that was waiting for the crossing in the area of Olhivka was damaged.

In addition, on November 4, 6 enemy refueling stations were destroyed in the area of Novovasylivka, Mykolaiv Oblast.

In Kherson, the Russian occupiers try to identify local residents who refused to evacuate to the territory temporarily controlled by the Russian invaders. The city is looted; the infrastructure is being destroyed.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

The Russian fleet has 7 ships and boats at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. There is not a single Kalibr cruise missile carrier among them. Nevertheless, a rapid build- up of surface and underwater Kalibr missile carriers in the sea launch areas is possible.

In the Sea of Azov waters, 6 patrol ships and boats are located on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

The Russian military continues to fire kamikaze drones at the seaports of Ukraine. Over the last day, 6 Shahed-136 drones were destroyed in the area of Mykolaiv.

According to satellite images, three out of four submarines of project 636.3 returned to the Sevastopol base from Novorossiysk.

At the Avlita grain terminal (Northern side of Sevastopol), the ship Fedir (IMO: 9431977) was spotted with open hatches in the process of loading grain. Fedir transports grain between Sevastopol and Bandirma (Turkey). The grain was most likely stolen from Ukraine. This vessel normally sails with the AIS transponder switched off, which violates SOLAS requirements. The ship “Fedir” departed from Sevastopol after loading on November 3.

The “Admiral Makarov” frigate of project 11356 is moored on the starboard side to the berth in Holland Bay in Sevastopol. A floating crane works next to it. This position of the ship confirms the statement that “Admiral Makarov” could have sustained damage to the starboard side on October 29. The frigate was in such a position for at least 4 days.

Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Marat Husnullin reported to Putin on the Kerch Strait bridge repair progress. The occupiers plan to restore the connection by the end of 2022. The restoration of engineering highways is scheduled by the middle of 2023. About 500 repairmen and two floating cranes were involved in the Kerch Strait bridge repair.

“The Grain initiative”: Risks of new “grain corridor” disruptions still exist while the war continues. Ukrainian grain should flow unimpeded to the countries of the world, and the war should be stopped, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview with the Turkish TV channel NTV. As noted, the Secretary General of the Alliance answered the question about the possible risks of repeat traffic interruption through the “grain corridor”.

The agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea was concluded between Ukraine, Turkey and the UN, as well as between Russia, Turkey and the UN on July 22 for a period of 180 days. The agreement can be extended by the agreement of the parties. The Russian Federation has not yet announced its decision. Most likely, the fate of the agreement will be clear after the meeting of the G20 heads, which will take place on November 15-16 in Indonesia on the island of Bali.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 05.11

Personnel – almost 75,440 people (+600);

Tanks – 2,758 (+8)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,601 (+21);

Artillery systems – 1,776 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 391 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 202 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,184 (+10); Aircraft – 277 (0);

Helicopters – 260 (+2);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,462 (+12); Intercepted cruise missiles – 399 (+2);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

President Volodymyr Zelensky held a three-hour meeting of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, at which the situation along the entire front line was discussed. In his televised address afterwards, Zelensky announced “good news” regarding air and missile defense in several weeks. Zelensky also announced his intention to create a fleet of sea drones.

International diplomatic aspect

The Elders, a group of former politicians and diplomats, called on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to consider a diplomatic way out of the conflict. “We need to encourage more thinking about how it will end in order to get the idea that this needs to end, as opposed to increasing the military arsenal on both sides and the devastation to the population in Ukraine,” said a former Irish president Mary Robinson, who also served as UN high commissioner for human rights.

The Elders also condemned the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian Oblasts and defended Ukraine’s right to defend its territory and sovereignty. Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, a previous UN human rights commissioner, underlined that the way out doesn’t mean ceding Ukraine’s sovereignty, while former Mexican president Ernesto Zedillo accused Russia of committing crimes and said that the ICC should try it for genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.

However, the Elders didn’t elaborate on what diplomatic way out is possible, given Russia’s unwillingness to stop its war of aggression, let alone freeing the illegally annexed and occupied territories, denying any crimes committed by its troops.

“I am annoyed that the Ukrainian government put me on the list of terrorists on the grounds that I am working on a ceasefire or on the possibility of further diplomatic steps through local ceasefires,” said Rolf Mützenich, leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) faction in the German Bundestag. “My position has not changed. Most wars do not end on the battlefield,” Mützenich said.

However, Rolf Mützenich was included not in the terrorists’ list but the one made of “Speakers who promote narratives consonant with Russian propaganda,” compiled by the Center for countering disinformation at the NSDC. He is in the company of nine more spekers who insist on various Kremlin narratives like Ukraine is to blame for the war; this war is between NATO and Russia; the US sponsors war bio laboratories in Ukraine; the West has provoked Putin; there’s need to freeze the conflict; supplying arms to Ukraine will lead to escalation; the West has been humiliating Putin for decades; Russia has freedom of speech, contrary to the US and the West as a whole.

On January 8 2020, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired a missile that shot down a Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 (Boeing 737-800), instantly killing all 176 passengers and the crew. Initially, Iranian authorities denied its responsibility for the crime, but the international pressure backed by evidence provided by western intelligence and Iranian public activists made Tehran admit that the IRGC “mistakenly” targeted a civilian plane “thinking” it was an American cruise missile. Now, after a month of denying that Iran provided Russia with kamikaze drones, Teheran admitted sending “a limited number of drones to Russia months before the Ukraine war.”

“If (Ukraine) has any documents in their possession that Russia used Iranian drones in Ukraine, they should provide them to us,” he said. “If it is proven to us that Russia used Iranian drones in the war against Ukraine, we will not be indifferent to this issue,” the Iranian Foreign Minister said, not dwelling on what indifference he had meant. However, he denied allegations about the missiles. “This fuss made by some Western countries that Iran has provided missiles and drones to Russia to help the war in Ukraine – the missile part is completely wrong,” he said.

“Tehran should realize that the consequences of complicity in the crimes of aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine will be much larger than the benefit from Russia’s support,” Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson warned. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said after his visit to Beijing that Xi Jinping opposes nuclear escalation in the military conflict in Ukraine. Addressing his colleagues in the Social Democratic Party of Germany, Mr. Scholz reported on the convergence of views between Berlin and Beijing regarding nuclear weapons.

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