CDS Daily brief (06.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

The Ukrainian National portal “Children of the war” reports that 10,570 Ukrainian children have been deported to Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Power outage schedules have been introduced in Kyiv and 7 Ukrainian Oblasts on Sunday, November 6, Ukrenergo power generation company informed.

Russian military continues shelling Ukrainian cities at night and during the day. Information on the consequences is provided by respective Military State Administrations.

• The Russian army shelled seven towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast yesterday. 18 residential buildings, an administrative building of the city territorial community, a business and a car were destroyed or damaged. On November 5, the troops of the Russian Federation killed one civilian and injured three others.
• At night, the Russian forces hit Zaporizhzhia with S-300 missiles. The building of a commercial enterprise was destroyed. The son of the enterprise’s owners died.
• 5 communities came under fire from the Russian territory in the northern Sumy Oblast. No victims were reported. Later, on November 6, 72 shells fired from the Russian territory landed in the Vorozhba community of Sumy Oblast. A local 62-year-old woman who was in the garden during the shelling was killed by shrapnel. Another local resident was injured.
• In Chernihiv Oblast, 2 communities got shelled during the previous day. No victims or damages were reported.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russian forces shelled Myrove, Marhanets, and Nikopol communities at night. A 9-year-old girl was injured late in the evening in Myrove community. 5 houses, farm buildings, several cars and a gas line were damaged.
• Russian troops continued shelling the territories of Kupyansk, Kharkiv and Chuhuyiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast, adjacent to the contact line and the border with the Russian Federation. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, the Russian military shelled a village in the Halytsyniv community at night.

An industrial infrastructure object was hit. There are no casualties.

• 72 shells fired from the Russian territory landed in the Vorozhba community of Sumy Oblast on November 6. A local 62-year-old woman who was in the garden during the shelling was killed by shrapnel. Another local resident was injured.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Health published the latest data on the destruction of medical institutions that occurred as a result of the full-scale Russian aggression. During the eight months of the war, 1,100 medical facilities were damaged, of which 144 were completely destroyed. As

of November 1, Ukraine has fully restored 95 medical facilities and 204 facilities had been partially restored.

30 municipal stationary warm-up locations are being organized in Vinnytsia in Western Ukraine in case there is no electricity and heat. They will be located in libraries, youth clubs, and schools in different areas of the city. Electricity generators and heaters have already been procured, the Vinnytsya Municipal Council reported.

Over the past three months, 135,000 people have moved from the war zones. Roughly, up to half a million people are yet expected to move. At least 400,000 people can move during the winter period, Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine, said.

The full-scale war has already affected 20% of nature reserves and 3 million hectares of forests in Ukraine, the World Wildlife Fund WWF-Ukraine said.

Occupied territories:

Kherson and 10 other towns and villages in Kherson Oblast are left without electricity and water supplies because the Russian forces cut the high-voltage transmission line, First Deputy Chairman of the Kherson Regional Council Yury Sobolevskyi reported. Sobolevskiy said that the occupying authorities blamed a terrorist act, although eye witnesses say that it was the Russian forces who did this.

According to the legally elected Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov, during the past week, Russian occupying forces allowed a total of 906 people to leave the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and move to Zaporizhzhia city which is under the Ukrainian control. To leave the occupied territories, people have to apply for a permit. It usually takes up to a month to obtain one due to the large number of those who want to leave. In Melitopol, the application slots are taken until mid-December.

In the temporarily occupied Melitopol, the Russian occupying authorities form “Yunarmiya” (Youth Army) detachments, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said. This organization operates under the auspices of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and is supposed to provide young people with basic military training. The children are prepared to serve in “volunteer battalions” Fedorov said.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 5) Developments)

It is the 256th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories,

concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and conducts the offensive in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Zybyne of Kharkiv Oblast, Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast; Andriivka, Bakhmutske, Berestove, Mayorsk, Makiivka, Maryinka, Ozaryanivka, Opytne, Pavlivka, Yakovlivka and Yampolivka in Donetsk Oblast and Shcherbaky in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 4 missile strikes and 19 air strikes and fired over 75 MLRS rounds. Areas around more than 35 towns and villages were hit by the Russian fire in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Near the state border, Mykolaivka and Senkivka in Chernihiv Oblast, Studenok in Sumy Oblast, Bilohorivka, Budarky, Zybyne, Krasne, Odnorobivka, Okhrymivka, Starytsia, Strilecha, and Udy in Kharkiv Oblast were shelled.

Over the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 7 strikes against the enemy. 6 areas of enemy weapons and military equipment concentration and an anti-aircraft missile systems position were hit. The Ukrainian air defense units shot down 4 UAVs.

Over the past day, Ukrainian missile and artillery forces hit one Russian command post, 7 areas of weapons and military equipment concentration, 1 ammunition depot, and 3 other important Russian military targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction

• Zolochiv-Balakleya section: approximate length of combat line – 147 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 10-12, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 13.3 km;

• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments, 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division, 6th and 239th tank regiments, 228th motorized rifle regiment of the 90th tank division, 1st motorized rifle regiment, 1st tank regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army, 275th and 280th motorized rifle regiments, 11th tank regiment of the 18th motorized rifle division of the 11 Army Corps, 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th Army Corps, 80th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 1st Army Corps of so-called DPR, PMCs.

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Berestove, Vyshneve, Kotlyarivka of Kharkiv Oblast, Nevske in Luhansk Oblast, and Lyman and Torske of Donetsk Oblast.

On November 5, Ukrainian troops continued their counteroffensive on the Svatove-Kreminna line. They advanced in the direction of Kreminna, stormed Kuzemivka, repulsed the Russian attack on Bilohorivka, and forced the Zherebets River west of Svatove. The Ukrainian forces also

probed Russian positions on the Kuzemivka-Kolomiychikha line. The Russian military is trying to maintain its positions in the Yahidne – Orlyanka area. Units of the Defense Forces are regrouping in this area after an unsuccessful assault on Yahidne.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 235 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 17 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th tank regiment of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around Andriyivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivanivka, Klishchiivka, Mayorsk, Opytne, Soledar, Spirne, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Nevelske, Novomykhailivka, Opytne and Pervomaiske with tanks and artillery.

On November 5, the occupying forces continued offensive actions around Bakhmut. They were repulsed by the Ukrainian Joint Forces near Spirne, Bakhmutske, Ivanhrad, Klishchiivka, Ozaryanivka, and Mayorsk. Russian troops stormed Ukrainian positions northeast of Bakhmut in the Verkhnokamyanske area.

Ukrainian forces constantly rotate units south of Bakhmut in the areas of Ivanhorod and Vesela Dolyna in order to deter the attacks “Wagner” PMC units advancing in the direction of Opytne.

Russian troops repelled Ukrainian counterattack south of Bakhmut near Opytne and Kurdyumivka. Ukrainian troops, however, continue to restrain the Russian troops south of Bakhmut near Ivanhrad, Odradivka, Vesela Dolyna and Zaitseve. They are preparing for urban combat in Bakhmut itself.

Russian troops continued their offensive in the Avdiyivka-Donetsk area, but Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Kamianka and in the radius of 35 km southwest of Avdiyivka near Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. Russian troops also tried to advance to the southwest from Avdiyivka to Kostyantynivka but failed. The Ukrainian Joint Forces also repelled the Russian attack on Pavlivka.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;

• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 38th and 64th separate motorized rifle brigades, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37 separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 70th, 71st and 291st motorized rifle regiments of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58 Combined Arms Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps, 39th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 68th Army Corps, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Velyka Novosilka, Vodyane, Vuhledar, Vremivka, Pavlivka, and Prechystivka in Donetsk Oblast, Zaliznychne, Olhivske, Shcherbaky, and Yuryivka in Zaporizhia Oblast.

On November 5, the Russian forces continued to carry out air, missile and artillery strikes west of Hulyaipole, striking Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Vilniansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
• Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd Army Corps of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd Army Corps of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Areas of more than 25 towns and villages along the contact line were hit by the Russian fire.

The Russian military continued to build defensive positions along the Dnipro River. They build robust strongholds with firing positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro, plant mines on the left bank, and prepare Nova Kakhovka for urban combat by mining underground communication lines such as sewers. They continue to destroy civilian vessels and have already destroyed more than 50 vessels.

Russian occupying forces continue to forcibly move the population from the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast. The population of the right bank of the Dnipro River, as well as the 15-kilometer zone of the left bank, is subject to the so-called “evacuation”. According to available information, local residents are being taken from Zavodivka to the temporarily occupied territory of the Republic of Crimea, with further resettlement to the Russian Federation.

On November 5, the occupying authorities sent messages to subscribers of Russian mobile operators in Kherson warning them about the alleged preparation of massive shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and appealing to them to leave the right-bank part of the city as soon as possible. At the same time, the occupiers destroy the towers of Ukrainian mobile operators in some locations.

According to the updated information, the strikes on the Russian forces in the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the previous days were confirmed. Thus, in the village of Chulanivka, Kherson Oblast, an attack was made on the area where an occupying unit was concentrated. The headquarters of one of the units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation was hit in the village of Basan, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and up to 10 units of military equipment and about fifty servicemen were destroyed. In the areas of Polohy and Marfopil, 20 units of military equipment were destroyed and up to 80 servicemen of the Russian occupation forces were wounded.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

Due to worsening weather conditions, the Russian fleet returned part of the ships to their base points and keeps only 3 ships at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. There is not a single Kalibr cruise missile carrier among them. Nevertheless, a rapid build-up of surface and underwater Kalibr missile carriers in the sea launch areas is possible.

In the Sea of Azov waters, 6 enemy patrol ships and boats are located on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 10 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved. The airplanes, in particular, constantly monitor the area of the grain corridor.

Meanwhile, the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense that Ukraine used the port of Odesa, the grain corridor, and ships with grain to launch combat drones on October 29 was not confirmed. Even Russian bloggers and experts report this. Analysis of a possible operation scenario shows that this area of the sea does not ensure the implementation of the main feature of drones, i.e. covert deployment. Also, the attack distance (by 30%) and the risk of collision of drones with ships in the sea area in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, where navigation existed at the time, also increase. Also, the statement made by Putin personally that 500 tons of explosives were carried by the 6-meter drone (the maximum possible weight with such dimensions is several hundred kg) and the presence of tracking equipment in the navigation unit of the kamikaze drone (there is no need for such a function) also appear absurd.

In Odesa Oblast, the night of November 5 to 6 passed without air raid warning signals and without shelling. On the Kinburn spit, located a few kilometers from Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, an enemy grouping was destroyed. In addition to the personnel of the occupying forces who were stationed there, there is information that it was the base from which the Iranian kamikaze “Shahed-136” drones were launched over the south of Ukraine, particularly over Odesa.

“The Grain initiative”: The G7 countries hope to continue the work of the “grain corridor” regarding the export of Ukrainian agricultural products. “We strongly support the UN Secretary General’s call for the continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), which has led to a decrease in world food prices. We call on Russia to heed the call of the Secretary General,” the document says. It is noted that the G7 in turn implements other vital international initiatives, including the Global Alliance for Food Security (GAFS) and the EU-led Pathways of Solidarity. The group also wants to speed up work to get fertilizers to the most vulnerable and calls on the G20 to support these efforts.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 06.11

Personnel – almost 75,930 people (+490);

Tanks 2,765 (+7)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,611 (+10);

Artillery systems – 1,781 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 391 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 202 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,191 (+7); Aircraft – 277 (0);

Helicopters – 260 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,465 (+3); Intercepted cruise missiles – 399 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Next year, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine will direct almost 90% of all taxes and fees paid by citizens and businesses to the defense and security of Ukraine, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said. In particular, it is planned to allocate UAH 1.1 trillion to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and security, almost UAH 450 billion will be directed to social programs and pensions. UAH 176 billion is planned to be allocated to health care and UAH 156 billion to education. It is planned to finance the deficit of more than 20% of GDP with the support of international partners.

In Rivne, the memory of the Jews executed by the Nazis in 1941 in the Sosonka hollow was commemorated, the Rivne City Council reported. Every year on November 6 and 7, Rivne residents and guests remember with sorrow the events when more than 17 thousand Jews of Rivne fell victim to the largest mass shooting of Jews in the region during the Holocaust. Today,

the mayor of Rivne Oleksandr Tretyak, local government representatives, the Jewish community, commemorated the victims.

International diplomatic aspect

The Washington Post reported that the US is privately encouraging Ukraine to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia. Though the Biden Administration reiterates its unwavering support for Ukraine and that it’s up to the Ukrainian nation to decide when and on what conditions to start peace talks, there’re some concerns that should be taken into account. “Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners,” said an unnamed US official meaning some Europeans and even more representatives of the developing world that are indirectly suffering from the Russian war.

The official rhetoric hasn’t changed, though, “the Kremlin continues to escalate this war. The Kremlin had demonstrated its unwillingness to seriously engage in negotiations since even before it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”

However, there has been a new wave of calls on Ukraine to employ diplomacy recently. It’s strange, but all those who are “worrying” about Ukrainians are calling on Ukrainians to compromise with Russia or urging Western governments to push Ukraine towards a diplomatic “solution” by reducing security aid. The “peacemakers” ignore that Putin has shown no sign of willingness to stop his brutal war. Quite the opposite. The Kremlin conducted the so-called partial mobilization, throwing draftees into the hell of war without proper preparation. The defense industry was boosted to produce more weapons, and Moscow begged for help from Iran and North Korea. Any ceasefire now means Russia will be holding more favorable positions for the future assault. The European “pacifists” don’t consider that Vladimir Putin has broken all existing norms and principles of international law, and anyone thinking soberly wouldn’t believe a word of his assurances. Those who can’t “bear” the sufferings of Ukrainians anymore tend to ignore that crimes committed by Russia can’t be tolerated, forgiven, or forgotten. The “appeasers” are happily ignoring that in the Russian view, this war is between the West and Russia, while Ukraine is just one of the battlegrounds.

“We do not consider statements that deepen the military conflict to be correct. Instead of such statements, an immediate ceasefire and peace negotiations are necessary,” Hungarian Foreign Ministry responded to Putin’s statement that Poland, Romania, and Hungary might also have territorial claims against Ukraine. Russia still pushes this absurd piece of propaganda after it illegally annexed more Ukrainian territories, while Poland is championing support for Ukraine, and Romania is trying to follow suit. Hungary has been more reluctant to support Ukraine, but even if it had entertain thought to join Russia in tearing Ukraine apart, it isn’t capable of doing so, let alone that the EU and NATO would make Hungary cool off instantly.

“Decisions cannot be made instead of Ukraine. Ukraine must say when it wants such negotiations and considers them promising,” the German President told the ARD. “Czechia is among the countries advocating the creation of a special tribunal to try Russia’s top political leadership for crimes in Ukraine… Now is not the time to talk about peace. Russia understands only force,” said the Foreign Minister of the Czech Republic.

“Iran didn’t give a limited number of drones before the war. They transferred dozens just this summer and have military personnel in occupied Ukraine helping Russia use them against Ukrainian civilians. Confronted with the evidence, they need a new policy, not a new story,” stated US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley.

“External power supply to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was restored two days after it lost all access to off-site electricity in the latest incident highlighting the precarious nuclear safety and security situation at Europe’s largest such facility,” the IAEA Director General said. Once again, a nuclear disaster caused by Russian reckless behavior was avoided. Meanwhile, Energoatom, Ukraine’s state nuclear energy company, is consider scenarios of the consequences of possibly blowing up the Kakhovka dam by Russian troops. It might lead to a significant drop in the water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir that provides cooling for the ZNPP.

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