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CDS Daily brief (08.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

Over the past day, November 7, as a result of Russian armed aggression against Ukraine, seven civilians were killed, and ten more were injured, according to data from Oblasts’ military administrations, published by the deputy head of the Office of the President, Kyrylo Tymoshenko.

As of 9 a.m. this morning, Oblast Military Administrations reported that the Russian army struck eight Oblasts of Ukraine over one day.

  • The Russian military shelled the Kupyanskyi and Chuguyivskyi districts of Kharkiv Oblast. Houses are damaged in two communities. A 32-year-old lieutenant of the civil protection service was injured during demining in the Kharkiv area. In the Balaklia community, a 61- year-old man was blown up by an explosive device; his condition is severe.
  • On November 7, enemy shelling killed 2 civilians in Bakhmut and 1 in Krasnohorivka of Donetsk Oblast. 7 more people are injured.
  • Over the past day, the Russian occupiers shelled the Zaporizhzhia, Vasylivka and Polohy districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 32 reports were received about the destruction of houses (apartments) and infrastructure facilities.
  • In Mykolaiv Oblast, Mykolaiv (1 wounded) and Bashtan districts of the region were under fire. The shelling damaged an industrial infrastructure object, a gas pipeline, three residential buildings, a cultural center, an educational institution and a local market.
  • At night, the Russin military shelled Marganets and Nikopol communities with “Grad” and heavy artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In Nikopol, a dozen high-rise and private buildings, two industrial enterprises, a hospital, a school, a vocational school, cars and a gas pipeline were damaged.

On November 7, the Russians shelled the recently liberated territories of the Kherson Oblast, reported National Police. Private houses, solar power plants, and agricultural machinery were destroyed by “grads” and artillery. There were injured and killed civilians. In some villages, there is not a single surviving store, pharmacy or cafe, and the houses are unfit for habitation.

Ukraine returned the bodies of another 38 fallen defenders, the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine reported. The operation was carried out with the cooperation of the Commissioner for Missing Persons, Oleg Kotenko, and a number of law enforcement agencies of Ukraine.

In the liberated territories of the Kherson Oblast, law enforcement officers discovered three more bodies of civilians killed by the Russian military, reported the Prosecutor General’s Office.

During the last three months, almost 300,000 people were evacuated from the territories where active hostilities are taking place, said the deputy head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko at a briefing. According to him, more than 1 million places for temporary residence of internally displaced persons have been arranged on the territory of 15 oblasts.

Power outages and critical infrastructure:

The biggest problems with electricity supply are currently in Kyiv, Kyiv and Kharkiv Oblast. This is due to the targeted strikes of the enemy on the energy infrastructure in these regions, said the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal during the government meeting, reports Ukrinform. He stressed that, however, the situation in Kyiv is far from announcing an evacuation, which can only be used as an emergency measure.

Occupied territories:

In Mariupol, the occupiers destroyed the “Milana” mural dedicated to 6-year-old Milana. Her mother died when the Russians shelled the houses of Mariupol residents in 2015. Then the girl lost her leg, survived several operations and learned to walk again.

At night, the Russian occupiers removed the equipment from the Tavria cognac plant located in temporarily occupied Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson Oblast, the mayor of Nova Kakhovka, Volodymyr Kovalenko, told in a comment to Ukrinform. He assumes that the Russian invaders could have stolen the enterprise automatic bottling lines and the most valuable – spirits for a unique collector’s cognac.

In temporarily occupied regions of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Russian occupation authorities want to introduce a “visa regime” with Ukraine,

the Berdyansk City Council reported in Telegram. Allegedly they will introduce a new access regime from January 1, 2023. This is what the Russian military themselves tell at the checkpoint in Vasylivka. People who leave the occupation are threatened that they will no longer be able to return because the visa regime will soon be introduced.

In the city of Energodar, the Russians continue to strengthen administrative and counterintelligence measures. They collect the personal data of local residents, check phones, go around private residences, and illegally detain Ukrainian citizens.

Operational situation

(please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 7) developments).

It is the 258th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to defend Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces, and conducts offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Bakhmut, Ivangrad, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Maryinka, Pavlivka, Vodyane and Mayorsk in the Donetsk Oblast and Bilohorivka in the Luhansk Oblast.

The enemy shelled the units of the Defense Forces along the contact line, carried out fortification of frontiers, conducted aerial reconnaissance, and continued to strike critical infrastructure, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of war. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 9 missile and 37 air strikes and carried out more than 100 rounds of anti-aircraft fire. The enemy shelled areas of more than 25 Ukrainian towns and villages of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Near the state border, the Russian military shelled Uda, Starytsia, Chugunivka, Figolivka, and Dvorichanske with tanks, mortars, and rocket and barrel artillery.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, providing the Russian Federation with infrastructure, territory and airspace. The formation of a Russian-Belarusian grouping of troops on the territory of the Republic of Belarus continues. There is still a threat of the enemy launching airstrikes using attack UAVs from the territory and airspace of Belarus.

Aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces during the past day struck the enemy 24 times. 17 areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment, 7 positions of the enemy’s air defense equipment were affected. The defense forces shot down an enemy Su-25 aircraft, a Lancet-3 UAV and four Orlan-10 drones.

Over the past day, Ukrainian missile troops and artillery hit 5 enemy command and control points, 2 areas of concentration of enemy manpower, weapons and military equipment, 2 ammunition depots, 2 anti-aircraft missile complexes and the area of firing positions of the Russian artillery.

According to Russian sources, as of November 7, up to 80,000 mobilized personnel entered the combat zone, of which 50,000 are active in combat units.

Russian troops have high losses among those mobilized on the front lines. A mobilized man who survived the fighting in the Kreminna-Svatove region reported that more than 500 mobilized personnel from the Voronezh region died as a result of Ukrainian shelling of their positions in Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast. He noted that Russian commanders concentrated a large number of personnel in one area and made them dig trenches, as a result of which only 41 people survived after being shelled by Ukrainian artillery.

Russian volunteer battalions also continue to suffer losses. The volunteer detachment of the Republic of Sakha “Bootur” returned to Russia with only 13 people out of 105 who went to fight against Ukraine.

The Russian Armed Forces have significantly depleted their reserves of high-precision weapons and suffered significant losses in aviation, leading to a decrease in the intensity of strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure facilities. Russian forces have used more than 80% of their modern missiles, about 120 missiles remain for the Iskanders.

Russian officials reached an agreement with Iranian officials on the purchase of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar ballistic missile systems.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

On November 7, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation issued a rare statement in response to the outrage of Russian media bloggers on November 6 regarding reports of significant losses and poor command in the 155th Pacific Fleet. The Russian blogosphere published and distributed a letter in which the Russian marines complained about the ill- prepared offensive in the Pavlivka district of the Donetsk Oblast, where the brigade suffered more than 300 killed, wounded, missing, and lost half of its equipment in four days of fighting. In the letter, the commander of the Eastern Military District, Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, and the commander of the 155th Infantry Regiment, Colonel Zurab Akhmedov, and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Valery Gerasimov, were directly accused. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that the brigade’s losses amounted to less than 1% killed and 7% wounded during the last ten days.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMC

The enemy shelled the Defence Forces’ positions near Kyslivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Grekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Yampolivka, and Lyman.

Russian troops are setting positions and conducting forward presence actions along the state border to block the transfer of the Defense Forces units to more tense areas of the front.

Ukrainian troops repulsed the enemy attack on Zybyne, continued the counteroffensive in the Svatove direction, attacked Nizhnya Duvanka, tried to advance in the direction of Novoselivske, continued the counteroffensive to the northwest of Kreminna, and unsuccessfully tried to advance to Ploshanka and Chervonopopivka.

The fighting in the area northwest of Svatove became positional, characterized by episodic and unsuccessful attempts by both Ukrainian and Russian troops to break through the front line.

Assault squads of the “Wagner” PMC and the 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps entered Bilohorivka after months of heavy fighting along the administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. Still, fighting continued in the residential areas of Bilohorivka.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106 airborne division, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled from tanks and artillery the areas of Rozdolivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Mayorsk, Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.

On November 6 and 7, Russian troops continued their offensive in the area of Bakhmut, with units of the “Wagner” PMC operating from three directions: near Klishchiivka to the south of Bakhmut, near Ivangrad to the southeast of Bakhmut, and on the eastern border of the city of Bakhmut. Russian troops took full control of Ivangrad, tried to take control of Opytne, attacked Avdiyivka, stormed Kamianka, advanced to the southwest of Avdiyvka in the Opytne area, continued the offensive in the Pervomaiske area, launched an assault on Novomykhailivka and Kostiantynivka to increase pressure on the Ukrainian garrison in Mariinka. The “Sparta” battalion of the 1st Army Corps and other Russian military units captured the former Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk airport area and pushed back the Ukrainian forces beyond the E-50 road.

The Ukrainian Joint Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Bakhmutske, Berestove, Yakovlivka, Andriivka, Mayorsk, Ozaryanivka, Opytne, Makiivka, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Pavlivka, and Novomykhailivka on November 6 and 7.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37th of the 36th CA Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so- called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the Defence Forces’ positions near Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Prechystivka, Vremivka, Novosilka, Neskuchne, Novopil, Temyrivka, Olhivske, Uspenivka, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Charivne, Novodanilivka, and Stepove.

Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks near Shcherbaky.

The enemy continued to carry out air, missile and artillery strikes to the west of Hulyaipole, on Nikopol and other towns and villages along the contact line. They fired S-300 anti-aircraft missiles at Hulyaipole.

Ukrainian Defense forces struck Russian concentration areas near Basan, Polohy and Marfopol, destroying up to 30 units of Russian military equipment and injuring about 120 Russian servicemen.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th CA Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd AC of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

The enemy shelled areas of towns and villages bordering the contact line. Vyshchetarasivka, Illinka and Marganets of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were directly affected by the fire from the anti-aircraft missile system.

The Russian troops are trying to hold the captured lines in Kakhovka, Hola Prystan and Ivanivka.

Ukrainian Defense forces attacked Russian positions along the current front line in the north and west of the Kherson Oblast near the administrative border of the Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblast. The Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group blew up three power lines along the Beryslav

– Kakhovka road and stopped the power supply in the Beryslav area.

Ukrainian troops continued to block enemy concentration areas. On November 6, they struck the “Golden Pheasant” hotel in Radensk, where Russian troops were stationed. They also struck the enemy concentration areas in the Beryslav area, Hola Prystan, Nova Kakhovka, and Oleshki. Fire damage to the military equipment concentration area was confirmed; 20 units of military equipment were damaged near Hola Prystan.

In the Novosofiivka area, the grouping of enemy troops was reinforced by a unit from the territory of the Chechen Republic, which joined in the robbery of local residents and their homes.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

Due to worsening weather conditions, the enemy keeps 7 ships at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. There are no Kalibr cruise missile carriers, but a rapid build- up of surface and underwater Kalibr missile carriers to the sea launch areas is possible (about 3- 4 hours).

Yesterday, November 7, the short-term departure of one Kalibr missile carrier ship was marked. 2 enemy patrol ships and boats are in the waters of the Sea of Azov on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 warplanes from Belbek and Saka airfields were deployed.

“Grain initiative”. The Joint Coordination Center (JCC) reported that eight cargoes passed through the maritime humanitarian corridor as part of the Istanbul Grain Agreement on Monday. In addition, 77 ships are waiting for permission to enter Ukrainian ports, and 15 loaded ships are preparing for inspection in Turkish territorial waters.

As of November 7, the total tonnage of grain and other products exported from three Ukrainian ports is 10 million 67 thousand 175 tons. Of them, 3 million tons is wheat, and more than 4 million tons is corn. Sunflower oil and rapeseed are also exported. In total, more than 400 ships were involved.

The stable operation of the corridor allows for the export of 6-7 million tons of products per month. Such volumes would be enough for Ukrainian producers, as well as to ensure international food security. Meanwhile, after the return of the Russians to the work of the “grain initiative”, the number of inspected vessels fell to 8-9 per day, when during their inspection by UN and Turkish inspectors, the number of inspected vessels reached 46. The inspection of 25-30 vessels daily is necessary for normal functioning. However, due to the Russian Federation’s position, no more than 10 inspections are expected per day.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 08.11

Personnel – almost 77,170 people (+710);

Tanks – 2,786 (+15)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,654 (+24);

Artillery systems – 1,791 (+9);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 391 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 203 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,216 (+17);

Aircraft – 278 (+1);

Helicopters – 260 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,476 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 399 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has registered in the Verkhovna Rada draft laws on the approval of his decrees on the continuation of martial law and general mobilization.

International diplomatic aspect

Russia’s deputy foreign minister said the Kremlin doesn’t have “preconditions, except for the main condition – that Ukraine shows goodwill.” It was a reaction to the Washington Post’s article claiming that the Biden Administration advises President Zelensky to calm down some European leaders by abandoning the no-talks-with-Putin stance. Russians are trying to grab an opportunity to shake Western unity, blaming Ukraine for “unwillingness” to negotiate “a solution.” Last week Putin expressed his “regret” that Kyiv doesn’t want to talk to him.

As it has been allegedly advised, President Zelensky urged the international community to “force Russia into real peace talks” and expressed his readiness to talk to Kremlin under the conditions that Russia returns all occupied territories, pay compensation for damage caused by the war and prosecutes war crimes. It might not be the exact formula that had been expected from Ukraine, but after numerous war crimes and destruction, the escalation of genocidal war, and on the foreground of Ukrainian military success, Ukrainian society would not accept any negotiations that envisage frozen conflict with more territories under the brutal occupation. Kyiv has no illusions that talks and a ceasefire would buy Putin enough time to regroup for yet another attempt to “solve a Ukrainian issue.”

Biden’s national security advisor visited Kyiv to convey that the Administration adheres to the basic principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” and will support Kyiv for as long as it takes. Britain will remain committed to helping Ukraine under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary said. “Anyone who believes it is possible to trade Ukraine’s freedom for our peace of mind is mistaken,” newly elected Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni said. That statement caused a sigh of relief in Kyiv because Meloni’s coalition partners are known to be supportive of Putin and, since the all-out invasion, were against sanctioning Russia and providing Ukraine with defense aid. “For my part, as before, I am convinced and assume that even now, at some point, we will have to return to the negotiating table…” however, it should be “done within the framework of the conditions and within the terms, which Ukraine will choose,” the French president said. So, principal Ukraine backers (including smaller in size but not in the scope of support Poland and the Baltic states) show steadfast support for Ukraine and know too well that the time for diplomacy hasn’t come yet.

Russia keeps uncertainty about whether it will extend the Ukraine grain deal. “We are very dissatisfied with how the Russian part is being implemented, where the UN has taken responsibility for solving problems,” said Russia’s deputy foreign minister. Yet he went on by saying that “We still have time. We are looking at how this deal is being implemented following the restoration of our participation.” Moscow suspended its participation after Ukraine targeted Russian missile cruisers at the harbor of Sevastopol, calling it “terrorism.” But the blackmail failed when Turkey and Ukraine, backed by the UN, decided to carry on grain transit without Russians. The Kremlin faced a dilemma of targeting grain bulkers, including ones under the UN flag or rejoining the process and slowing it down from the inside.

“Finland will support the grain shipments of the World Food Programme from Ukraine to Somalia. At the same time, Finland will increase its humanitarian assistance to the Horn of Africa, where more than 20 million people are in need of urgent food aid,” the Finish Foreign Ministry’s press release reads.

Aeroflot will establish a national technical support center for Airbus and Boeing aircraft operated in Russia. Being denied access to original components, parts, and services because of sanctions, Russia is trying to solve its air transportation problems by “technical cannibalism” (getting spare parts for one aircraft from another one) and “gray” (illegal) export. Now, Russians think of launching illegal production of parts and components by engaging former employees of the Russian offices of Western manufacturers. It might trigger major producers’ lawsuits and the US and the EU actions within the WTO system. The air regulators might find it necessary to ban the operation of Russian passenger and cargo fleets because of inevitable safety risks. Foreign countries that haven’t closed their skies for Russian plains yet (beyond the Western nations) might now think of it.

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