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CDS Daily brief (09.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

Since the first use of Iranian Shahed-136 drones in the war against Ukraine, Russia has launched more than 400 kamikaze drones on the Ukrainian infrastructure, Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said. According to him, most drones were shot down, but it is impossible to destroy 100% of them.

According to Oblast military administrations, as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, nine civilians were killed and 24 were injured over the past day, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.

The Russian occupiers continue to shell the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. They also targeted Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts in central Ukraine. The information was made public by Oblast Military State Administrations at 9 a.m. today.

  • In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 18 houses (apartments) and infrastructure objects were reported destroyed as a result of Russian shelling.
  • On November 8, during the day, the Russian military fired 59 mines and shells at the border areas of Sumy Oblast. 8 mines were fired at Seredyna-Buda, Shostka district at night. No destruction or victims were reported.
  • Kamikaze drones attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at night. The Ukrainian military shot down five Russian drones. Three hit a logistics enterprise in Dnipro. Four employees of the enterprise were injured. All are hospitalized. Three are in serious condition. A fire broke out.
  • The Russian forces shelled Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with Grad MLRS at night. More than 20 residential buildings, a private enterprise, cars, a gas pipeline and a power line were damaged. According to preliminary information, people were not injured. In the afternoon, the Russian forces shelled Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast again. The Marhanets community was hit with “Grad” MLRS. One local resident was killed, the head of Dnipropetrovsk OMA Valentin Reznichenko reported.
  • Two people were hospitalized as a result of Russian shelling in the Dvorichna community in Kharkiv Oblast. The condition of the patients is average.
  • On the evening of November 8, the Russian forces launched a rocket attack on Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. School and private houses were damaged. An 8-year-old child was injured. In the evening, there was a powerful combined shelling of Chasiv Yar (rockets, artillery and MLRS): a school, a kindergarten, and private houses were hit, at least one person was killed, and 2 were injured. A total of 3 people were killed, 11 wounded in one day in Donetsk Oblast.
  • In Kherson Oblast, the Russian military continued to shell towns and villages along the contact line. As a result of the shelling, 2 civilians received shrapnel wounds.

Mines remain one of the biggest problems in Kharkiv Oblast. During the day, 2 road service workers died, and 2 more were injured. Special equipment hit a mine during road works in the Chuhuyiv district. Pyrotechnic units of the State Emergency Service defused 635 explosive objects during the day. Demining continues.

In Sumy Oblast, one of the largest bridges in the region across the Desna River connecting Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, which was destroyed due to military aggression, was restored, the Head of Sumy Oblast Military Administration Dmytro Zhyvytskiy said. He emphasized the economic importance of the bridge.

Occupied territories:

According to Russian official sources, the deputy head of the Russia-installed Kherson Administration, Kiril Stremousov, died in a car crash today. Prior to the occupation, Stremousov had been known for his pro-Russian views and street activism.

The Russia-appointed Acting head of the Kherson region, Volodymyr Saldo, banned the retail sale of alcohol in the area.

In the Henichesk district of Kherson Oblast, the Russian military, together with its collaborators, used force to seize the wells of the gas field, Kherson Oblast Police reported.

Land plots in Crimea that belong to Ukrainian businessmen who support the current Kyiv authorities will be subject to nationalization, the de-facto head of the Crimean parliament, Vladimir Konstantinov, said. Land is a scarce and valuable commodity in Crimea.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 8) Developments)

It is the 259th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and conducts the offensive in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Bilohorivka and Novoselivske in Luhansk Oblast and Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Vesele, Klishchiivka, Mayorsk, Novomykhailivka, Opytne, Pavlivka, Pervomaiske, Soledar and Yakovlivka in Donetsk Oblast.

The Russian military shells the Ukrainian troops along the contact line fortifies frontiers, and conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure. Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 7 missile strikes and 32 air strikes and fired over 70 MLRS rounds. Areas around more than 35 towns and villages in Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts were hit by the Russian fire.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, providing it with infrastructure, territory, and airspace. The Russian-Belarusian grouping of troops on the territory of the Republic of Belarus continues to form. According to preliminary information, the servicemen of the 38th separate airborne assault brigade of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus purchased up to 100 sets of individual first-aid kits, unloading vests and other equipment for the needs of the personnel of the 15th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation as “fraternal” aid. Units of attack UAV operators are being formed in the border troops of the Republic of Belarus. Law enforcement agencies of the Republic of Belarus have intensified measures to search for, identify and detain citizens with a pro-Ukrainian position or those who criticize the authorities or the so-called special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.

Over the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 18 strikes against the enemy. 4 enemy platoon strongholds, 10 areas of weapons and military equipment concentration and 4 anti-aircraft missile systems positions were hit.

Over the past day, the Ukrainian air defense units shot down 5 “Lancet” and 4 “Orlan” UAVs. In addition, Ukrainian missile and artillery forces hit one Russian command post, 4 weapons and military equipment concentration areas.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMC

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas around Berestove, Krokhmalne and Cherneshchyna of Kharkiv Oblast; Makiivka, Nevske, Novoselivske, Ploshanka and Stelmakhivka of Luhansk Oblast and Terny and Yampolivka of Donetsk Oblast.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106 airborne division, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around Andriyivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Zalizne, Klishchiivka, Mayorsk, Opytne, Pivnichne, Soledar, Avdiyivka, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Nevelske, Netaylove, Novomykhailivka, Opytne and Pervomaiske with tanks and artillery.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37th of the 36th CA Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the socalled LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Volodymyrivka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Mykilske, Neskuchne, Pavlivka, Prechystivka, Shevchenko of Donetsk Oblast, Stepove and Charivne of Zaporizhia Oblast.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th CA Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd AC of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Areas of more than 30 towns and villages near the contact line were shelled. The Russian military carried out airstrikes in the areas of Nova Kamianka and Bilohirka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

The Russian fleet keeps 7 ships at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. There is not a single Kalibr cruise missile carrier among them. Nevertheless, a rapid build-up of surface and underwater Kalibr missile carriers in the sea launch areas is possible (3-4 hours).

In the Sea of Azov waters, 6 patrol ships and boats are located on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 16 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved. In addition, the adversary monitors the water area adjacent to the grain corridor, thus staying ready to renew the blockade of Ukrainian ports.

On the morning of November 9, the enemy attacked Odesa with a Kh-31 missile from a Su-30 aircraft. The Air Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down the missile.

The mobilized Russian troops, completing their training at Russian training grounds in Crimea and Sevastopol, will soon be sent to war. The dispatch to the front should take place by the end of Sunday. At the same time, as of November 8, a large group of mobilized people does not have body armor.

“The Grain Initiative”: 3 vessels with 21.6 thousand tons of oil on board left the ports of “Odesa”, “Chornomorsk” and “Pivdenny” for the countries of Asia and Europe.

9 ships move along the “Grain Corridor” to Ukrainian ports for loading. Yesterday, November 8, 7 bulk carriers with Ukrainian agricultural products called at the ports. Among them, the STARVOS bulker is loaded with 55,000 wheat for Yemen’s citizens suffering from a food crisis.

Since the departure of the first ship with Ukrainian food, 10.1 million tons of agricultural products have been exported. A total of 435 ships with agricultural products left Ukrainian ports for Asian, European and African countries.

Ukraine hopes to extend the “grain agreement” for at least one year, as well as to expand the agreement to the ports of the southern Mykolaiv Oblast, which provided 35% of Ukrainian food exports before the Russian invasion. “We hope that no later than the next week, we will find understanding from our partners in Turkey and the UN, and the entire market will also have a clear signal regarding the further functioning and continuation of the initiative,” said Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Yuriy Vaskov.

The “grain initiative” expires on November 19. It enabled a supply of more than 10 million tons of Ukrainian food, mainly grain, to foreign markets since its conclusion in July with the mediation of Turkey and the UN.

Ukraine also demanded streamlining the mandatory inspection of ships transporting food, as Kyiv believes that Russia is deliberately slowing down inspections to reduce the speed of exports, he noted.

A decision is expected next week, after the G20 summit.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 09.11

Personnel – almost 77,950 people (+780);

Tanks 2,801 (+15)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,666 (+12);

Artillery systems – 1,802 (+11);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 393 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 205 (+2); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,227 (+11); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 260 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,483 (+7); Intercepted cruise missiles – 399 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The State Budget of Ukraine approved by the Verkhovna Rada allocates UAH 444.13 billion to the social sphere for the next year. This is UAH 41.9 billion more than in 2022, the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine reported. In particular, UAH 271.86 billion is earmarked for payments to the elderly, UAH 86.1 billion to people in difficult life circumstances, UAH 53.45 billion to low-income citizens, and UAH 26.85 billion to families and children. In addition, it is planned to allocate UAH

3.56 billion for payments to persons with disabilities.

Ukraine considers Russia’s repeated attempts to invite it to the negotiations table to discuss the end of the war as a “smoke screen” to buy time and change the situation in its favor, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said. He noted that so far the statements from Russia do not mention the withdrawal of troops from the territory of Ukraine, but only use general phrases that Moscow is “open to negotiations”.

International diplomatic aspect

GOP didn’t manage to make a “red wave”, though it is on its way to taking control of the House and Senate. It’s not what Donald Trump and his supporters hoped for on the eve of his possible announcement to run for the White House in 2024. His warning not to compete for the highest office to the newly reelected Governor of Florida shows that there might be promising alternatives, given the results of a kind of referendum on Trump.

MAGA Republicans might affect the scope of assistance the US provides to Ukraine, though less decisively, had they won a landslide victory. However, the main issue would likely be a more significant role of Congress in oversight of the Ukrainian aid in view of ideas voiced by Senator Rand Paul. There’s always room for compromise in drafting and passing connected and not-so- connected bills. And in spite of some critical voices over the scope of aid, Republicans still show strong support for Ukraine, which is of moral importance, as well as in the national interest of the United States. The Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022, unanimously supported by both parties and both chambers, will remain a tool at the Biden Administration’s disposal in case of changing winds on Capitol Hill. More competition for the nomination in two years between candidates with traditional conservative views, particularly on foreign and security policy, is in the interest of the American people and those who see America as the leader of the Free World.

Russian military leadership announced their troops withdrawing from Kherson and nearby areas. It’s the only regional capital Russia managed to occupy since February 24 and pompously (illegally) annexed. One more sign of “a gesture of goodwill,” a retreat in Russian newspeak, is a smart move because the Russian military was not able to sustain the defense on the western bank of the Dnieper River. However, Ukrainian experts believe that Russians set up a trap and that regaining control over the city isn’t going to be easy. Russia needs an operational pause to strengthen defenses and make sustainable grabs that secure a land bridge from Crimea towards Russia’s mainland. This territory bears strategic importance for future advances deep into Ukraine in the northern direction but, most notably, towards Odesa. It won’t be a surprise if Russian propaganda and diplomacy would double down on a “talks theme” aimed at buying time for the military and shaking support for Ukraine from less ready for long-haul European leaders.

The EU Commission has proposed a support package for Ukraine of up to €18 billion. This will come in the form of loans disbursed as of 2023 through a Macro-Financial Assistance+ instrument. The MFA+ is aimed at helping Ukraine to maintain macro-financial stability, restore critical infrastructure, and carry out sectoral and institutional reforms, including anti-corruption and judicial reforms, etc.

The UK will shortly complete the delivery of approximately 1,000 additional surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. It will also send further 12,000 extreme cold weather sleeping kits and 150 heated tents to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia reportedly informed Iran about its withdrawal from Iraqi-mediated talks. Russia tried to become a mediator, which would have given Moscow more leverage in the Middle East. In the meantime, Nikolai Patrushev, Russia’s Secretary of the Security Council, headed to Teheran for talks. Behind the show of a strategic alignment, Patrushev is going to secure supplies of Iran- made weapons to substitute depleted resources in the war against Ukraine. It was reported that for the first tranche of drones, Moscow paid €140m in cash and some Western weapons captured at battlefields in Ukraine. The Kremlin likely promised more cash for Iranian drones and ballistic missiles and whatever Teheran can give to prolong the badly going war in Ukraine. The US should

revisit its self-restriction policy on long-range capabilities for Ukraine should Patrushev close the deal. Ukraine should have the means and ability to target platforms that are used to hit civilians, civilian and critical infrastructure. Though Kyiv has received several air defense systems, there are hardly enough to cope with the current level of attacks, not to mention their possible intensification.

Russia, relevant news

President Putin’s decree defined opposition to the destructive ideology and the formation of the image of Russia as the custodian of traditional values as the goal of the government policy of the Russian Federation. Serving the Fatherland is attributed to the traditional values of the Russian Federation, along with the life, dignity, rights and freedoms of citizens.

The volume of gas supplies from Russia to Italy decreased to 7 billion cubic meters. m per year, Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said. At the end of 2021, about 30 billion cubic meters of Russian gas were supplied to the country.

The Japanese automaker Isuzu Motors is considering the possibility of a final cessation of the production of trucks in Russia, as it cannot solve problems with the supply of components – Kyodo agency / Yomiuri newspaper.

The basic military training course will appear in Russian Federation schools starting in the next academic year. The classes will be extracurricular, the Russian Minister of Education said.

The Southern District Military Court (Rostov-on-Don) has begun a show trial of Denis Muryga, one of the leaders of the Ukrainian Aidar volunteer battalion. The Russian government accuses him of participating in an illegal armed formation.

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