CDS Daily brief (10.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

The Russian losses in the war against Ukraine exceed the losses of the Ukrainian army by approximately 10 times, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. “I can’t say the exact numbers, but the difference is very significant. Because our military tactics are not to lose people, because people are more important.”

There are more than 2,000 unidentified people in Ukraine who died as a result of the Russian invasion, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Mary Hakobyan told a briefing at the Military Media Center.

Russia is committing war crimes and possibly crimes against humanity by forcibly transferring and deporting civilians from Ukraine. When leaving home, people must go through an invasive screening process called “filtration”. They are interrogated, and searched, many are detained and subjected to torture and other forms of ill-treatment, which is a war crime against the civilian population – Amnesty International said in its report.

As of November 10, more than 80% of boiler houses and heating stations are operational in Kharkiv Oblast, but the situation varies in different places, Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, said. There is no gas supply in the city of Vovchansk, which depended on Russia. Boiler plants are complete in Kupyansk, and some of them have already been started, in Izyum, 6 boiler plants out of 22 are being started (the rest were destroyed by Russian shelling and airstrikes). A total of 70 high-rise buildings out of 198 will be heated in Izyum.

Around 7 a.m., 2 rockets, probably S-300, exploded on the territory of an agricultural enterprise in the Vilnyanska community. Enterprise buildings and equipment were damaged, Oleksandr Starukh, head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (OMA) said.

On Thursday morning, Russian troops shelled the liberated parts of Kherson Oblast, trying to hit humanitarian aid delivery points in the village of Zolota Balka, Novoaleksandrivska amalgamanet community, deputy head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.

On November 10, the Russian military shelled the border areas of Sumy Oblast. A total of 49 explosions were recorded, the head of Sumy OMA, Dmytro Zhivytskyi, said. He added that there were no victims or destruction.

The Kyiv City Council has completely excluded the Russian language from the curricula of communally owned preschool and general secondary education institutions. “The leaders of the Russian Federation have repeatedly said that ‘Russia reaches as far as the Russian language is spread.’ In this regard, the Kyiv City Council members adopted a decision that will provide an

opportunity to avoid the escalation of tension in society and strengthen the protection of Kyiv’s educational space from the hybrid influences of the aggressor state. Language is important, and in times of war it is a matter of national security,” Chairman of the Standing Committee on Education and Science, Family, Youth and Sports Vadym Vasylchuk noted.

Occupied territories:

The so-called evacuation of the population from the city of Kherson has been stopped due to the lack of those who are willing to leave, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said. Also, the occupation authorities stopped paying wages and social benefits.

The Ukrainian Center of National Resistance reported that the Russian forces looted the Ukrainian Orthodox Church building in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhya Oblast. They took seven Orthodox icons dated between the end of the 18th and the beginning of the 19th century.

The EU will not issue Schengen visas to the people who have received Russian international passports in the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts of Ukraine, as well as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the EU said in a statement.

Operational situation
(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 9) Developments)

It is the 260^th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories, concentrates its efforts on disrupting the counteroffensive actions of the Ukrainian troops, and conducts the offensive in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka directions.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Novoselivske and Makiivka of Luhansk Oblast and Soledar, Klishchiivka, Mayorsk, Yakovlivka, Andriivka, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Nevelske, Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka of Donetsk Oblast. The Russian military shells the Ukrainian troops along the contact line, fortifies frontiers, and conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure.

Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 11 missile strikes and 22 air strikes and fired over 35 MLRS rounds. Areas around more than 30 towns and villages in Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Kherson Oblasts were affected. Near the state border, the aggressor shelled the villages of Hasychivka in Chernihiv Oblast and Popivka, Petrushivka, Myropillya, Zapsilya, Nova Huta, Novovasylivka and Starykove in Sumy Oblast, Hryhorivka, Kolodyazne, Strilecha, Vovchansk, Ohirtseve and Ternov in Kharkiv Oblast.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, receives and accommodates Russian servicemen, and provides training grounds.

The Russian-Belarusian grouping of troops on the territory of the Republic of Belarus continues to form. The threat of enemy strikes and the use of attack UAVs from the territory of the Republic of Belarus persists.

The interior affairs bodies of the Russian Federation in the city of Tolyatti, Samara Oblast received an order to recruit 1,000 candidates for service in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. At the same time, the city’s chemical enterprises are working on additional fundraising to support the regional division. This stirs indignation in the employees, who even without this face monthly deductions for the support of the mobilized servicemen who participate in the war on the territory of Ukraine.

Over the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 6 strikes against the enemy. 2 areas of weapons and military equipment concentration, and 2 anti-aircraft missile systems positions were hit. Over the past day, the Defense Forces shot down five “Shakhed” and three “Orlan” UAVs in different directions.

Ukrainian missile and artillery forces hit one Russian command post, 1 area of weapons and military equipment concentration, an ammunition depot, and other important Russian military targets.

On November 9, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation ordered the Russian troops to begin withdrawing from the western (right) bank of the Dnipro River to the eastern (left) bank. Shoigu’s and Surovikin’s statements mark the beginning of a steady, combative withdrawal of Russian troops across the Dnipro to prepared positions on the eastern (left) bank to preserve the combat power of Russian units, including elements of the 76th air assault division and 106th airborne division and 22nd Army Corps. The commander of the operation in Ukraine, General Surovikin, said that half of the troops withdrawn from the western bank of the Dnipro River will be redeployed to other regions of Ukraine. The battle for Kherson is not over yet, but Russian troops have entered a new phase. The priority is to withdraw their forces across the river in proper order and delay the Ukrainian forces, rather than trying to completely stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction

• Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMC

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas around Ploschanka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Spirne, Bilohorivka, Makiivka, Nevske and Kyselivka.

Fighting continues along the Svatove-Kreminna highway and in the Bilohorivka area of the Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces repulsed the Ukrainian attack northwest of Svatove in the direction of Kuzemivka and along the Ploshanka – Makiivka front line near the R66 highway.

The Ukrainian defense forces repelled Russian attacks northwest of Svatove in the area around Novoselyvske and south of Kreminna in the Bilohorivka area.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106 airborne division, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas around Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Soledar, Ivanhrad, Yakovlivka, Mayorsk, Zelenopillia, New York, Vuhledar, Nevelske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Krasnohorivka and Vesele with tanks and artillery.

Russian troops continued their offensive around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

The joint forces repelled attacks on Bakhmut and near Klishchiivka, Maiorsk, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Yakovlivka, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Opytne, Pervomaiske, Pavlivka, and Novomykailivka.

Assault squads of the “Wagner” PMC and units of the Russian Armed Forces advanced to the southern part of Bilohorivka. They tried to break through the Ukrainian defenses on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, continued to attack in the direction of Opytne, Krasohorivka, and Maryinka. They also repelled Ukrainian counterattacks in the areas of Novomykhailivka, Pavlivka, and Vremivka. The weather conditions slowed down the Russian troops in the Novomykhailivka area.

The Russian occupation authorities set up “dragon’s teeth” engineering barriers and mined the Ahrobaza – Berdyanske – Shevchenko – Pryazovske line near the Mariupol suburbs.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37th of the 36th CA Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the socalled LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Prechystivka, Velyka Novosilka, Pavlivka, Hulyaipilske, Vremivka, Zaliznychne, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novopil, Mali Shcherbaky and Poltavka.

Russian troops continued regular artillery and missile strikes on the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in order to maintain control over the occupied positions. They launched an Iranian-made Shahed-136 UAV over the city of Dnipro, hitting the building of an unspecified logistics enterprise, and shelled settlements in the Nikopol district. Ukrainian air defense destroyed five Shahed-136 UAVs.

Ukrainian forces continued to shell elements of the logistics system of the Russian Armed Forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, destroying 15 pieces of military equipment, and injuring and killing up to 150 Russian servicemen.

Damage to the Kerch Strait bridge continues to disrupt Russian landline communications with southern Ukraine. According to estimates by the UK Ministry of Defense, the Kerch Strait bridge is unlikely to be operational until at least September 2023, which will reduce the ability of the Russian Federation to move military equipment and personnel by rail and road. Russian troops move fuel tanker convoys to supply Russian positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro through Mariupol due to the damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge.

Ukrainian partisans attacked the Russian occupation headquarters in Voznesenska on the northeastern outskirts of Melitopol.

The occupying power is intensifying the repression by law enforcement agencies and filtering measures in the rear areas. This is happening against the backdrop of fears of a Ukrainian counteroffensive after Russia announced the withdrawal from the right bank part of Kherson Oblast. Thus, in Berdyansk, the occupation authorities detained a group of alleged “Ukrainian

militants”. They increased the number and density of checkpoints for owners of Ukrainian cars in the occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast and marked their license plates with Ukrainian coat of arms.

Russian sources claim that Melitopol residents are forming a “volunteer law enforcement battalion”, presumably to curb partisan activity in and around the city.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;

• Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th CA Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd AC of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

The Russian military shelled Pravdyne, Myrne, Ternovi Pody, Sukhy Stavok, Zolota Balka and Marhanets. It continued to conduct aerial reconnaissance intensively using UAVs, it made more than 15 sorties.

Ukrainian troops won victories near the border of the Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts to the northeast of Kherson. They began an offensive on Snihurivka, destroyed the Russian ammunition depot, and broke through the defense of the 205th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 49th Army and the airborne units of the Russian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian military continues to fight for full control over the town. Russian troops destroyed bridges in the Snihurivka area, which means that a controlled withdrawal of Russians from positions northeast of the city of Kherson as part of a wider retreat from the western bank of the Kherson region is underway.

The Ukrainian defense forces took control of Kalynivske, Mykolaiv Oblast.

Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks northwest of Beryslav in the area of Sadok, Kachkarivka, and Pyatykhatky.

In the city of Dzhankoy (occupied Crimea), the invaders turned the civil hospital into a military hospital, where up to 800 wounded occupiers undergo treatment.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

The Russian fleet keeps 14 ships at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. For a week there were no Kalibr cruise missile carriers among these ships. But today one surface ship went on patrol with 8 Kalibr missiles.

In the Sea of Azov, the Russian military continues to control sea communications, keeping 1 ship on combat duty. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 10 Russian ships, including 5 Kalibr cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo of 76 missiles.

During the day, the following ships passed the Kerch-Yenikal Strait in the interests of the Russian Federation:

To the Sea of Azov – 24 vessels, including 6 vessels that moved from the Bosphorus Strait;

To the Black Sea – 38 vessels, including 15 vessels that continued their movement in the direction of the Bosphorus Strait.

Russia continues to violate the 1974 International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) by turning off automatic identification systems (AIS) on civilian vessels in the waters of the Sea of Azov.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved. The adversary monitors the water area adjacent to the grain corridor, thus staying ready to renew the blockade of Ukrainian ports.

Railway freight trains arrive on the territory of Kherson Oblast from the Crimean direction unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka” and “Novooleksiiivka” stations.

On November 8, the Russians reported on the installation of the first span on the Kerch Strait Bridge. The span was rebuilt at enterprises in the east of the Russian Federation in the shortest possible time. They say they plan to install the next one in a few days. Meanwhile, the damage to the Kerch Strait bridge seriously limited the provision of supplies to the occupied Crimea from the territory of the Russian Federation. Even the alternative transportation route via Melitopol – Mariupol does not ensure the required volume of supplies but doubles their cost.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 10.11

Personnel – almost 78,690 people (+740);

Tanks 2,804 (+3)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,682 (+16);

Artillery systems – 1,805 (+3);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 393 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 205 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,242 (+15); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 260 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,499 (+16); Intercepted cruise missiles – 399 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

According to President Zelenskiy, 41 villages were liberated in the south of Ukraine. He said this in today’s evening TV address.

Russian shelling of civilian infrastructure and constant blackouts may trigger an even greater reduction in Ukraine’s GDP this year than the previously forecast 35%, the First Vice Prime Minister – Minister of Economy Yuliya Svyridenko said. According to assessments of the ministry, economic output fell by 39% in October after a 35% decline in August-September.

According to the data for 10 months of 2022, Ukrainian metallurgical plants produced 5.844 million tons of steel, which is only 32.6% compared to 2021, when 17.903 million tons were produced, concern “Metalurgprom” said.

International diplomatic aspect

“That’s up to the Ukrainians. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” the US President clarified his words that “it remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia.” Defense ministers of the UK, the Netherlands, Latvia, and Denmark said Ukraine should feel under no pressure to enter any peace negotiations with Russia.

“We want Ukraine to be able to discuss or resolve this issue from a position of strength, not a position of weakness. And that is the current direction of travel,” said the UK defense minister. “What’s important is that at this point, Ukraine knows that it can count on us,” added the Dutch defense minister. Latvia’s deputy prime minister and defense minister expressed his skepticism about any Russian offers of peace talks while “they are bombing civilians,” and it was Russia that started the war in the first place.

Ambassador Daniel Fried warned about the “risks of rushing to negotiations.” “Intensified calls for the West to initiate negotiations to end Putin’s war on essentially his terms seem oddly timed

– and potentially dangerous.” The American diplomat argues that “European partners should not forestall the possibility, even likelihood, of more Ukrainian military success by insisting on a ceasefire in place or by assuming that it’s impossible for Ukraine to, for example, liberate the Donbas or even Crimea. Furthermore, by pushing negotiations now, the United States would risk falling into a dynamic of undercutting Ukraine’s strong position on the ground by becoming the supplicant (“demandeur,” in diplo speak).” Ambassador Fried put the issue in the global context by saying that “Given the history and the stakes, it seems not just immoral but contrary to US interests to abandon Ukraine to a Russian sphere of influence imposed through war and setting a precedent for more such wars of conquest by Moscow, Beijing, and other aggressive governments.” “In foreign policy, interests do not always align well with values, especially in the short run. In Ukraine, they do,” concluded a seasoned diplomat.

“I think there’s a widespread recognition that the stakes in Ukraine are just bigger than Ukraine,” said Colin H. Kahl, the US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. “We don’t want to live in a world where big countries believe that they can swallow up their smaller neighbors. That is a recipe for global disorder and large countries going on the march. We’ve lived in a world like that before: it was called the 1930s. And it ended in the most catastrophic global conflict in human history,” Kahl said.

“In the area of foreign policy, I hope we’ll continue this bipartisan approach of confronting Russia’s aggression in Ukraine,” stated POTUS. Commenting Republican Leader McCarthy that he is not prepared to write what he has called a “blank check” to Ukraine, Joe Biden said, “we’ve not given Ukraine a blank check.”

“There’s a lot of things that Ukraine wants we didn’t — we didn’t do.” Joe Biden mentioned his refusal to close Ukrainian skies with US Airforce from the Russian missiles targeting Ukrainian cities and his unwillingness to provide long-range capabilities, so Ukraine won’t be able to “start bombing Russian territory.” “I would be surprised if Leader McCarthy even has a majority of his Republican colleagues who say they’re not going to fund the legitimate defensive needs of Ukraine,” concluded the POTUS.

The US is going to provide Ukraine with several Hawks and four Avenger systems. Spain will give Ukraine two more Hawk air defense systems, bringing the total number of committed weapon systems to six. Netherlands and Norway announced further commitments to the International Fund for Ukraine worth €100 million and €150 million, respectively. The UK-initiated fund is used to purchase equipment directly from manufacturers and deliver it to Ukraine.

The UK has frozen $20.5 billion worth of assets of the Russian “oligarchs” and government- related individuals. “We have imposed the most severe sanctions ever on Russia, and it is crippling their war machine. Our message is clear: we will not allow Putin to succeed in this brutal war,” a junior government minister in the Treasury stated. The EU had frozen $13.83 billion. Ukraine has been calling on its Western partners to work out a mechanism that would allow this money to be used as compensation for the devastating war Russia is waging against Ukraine.

“Given our principal challenge today, Italy strongly supports the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and freedom of Ukraine,” the Italian Prime Minister said NATO Secretary-General. “The political cohesion of the alliance and our full commitment to supporting the Ukrainian cause are, from our point of view, the best response that NATO allies can give.” Meanwhile, Germany warned Hungary that “there is no grey area” when it comes to the ratification of Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO. Hungary, very much criticized for illiberal practices at home, plays a destructive role abroad. It has been blocking Ukraine’s cooperation with NATO, softening sanctions against Russia, and threatening the EU’s united stance on reducing dependency on Russian energy. Now, it undermines the security of two northern European nations and sabotages the whole alliance’s decision.

Russia, relevant news

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded during the war in Ukraine, CNN reported.

The Japanese manufacturer of trucks and pickups, Isuzu, presented a plan to withdraw from Russia. writes “Nastoyastchee vremya” with reference to the Kyodo agency. In March of this year, the car concern suspended production in Ulyanovsk. The reason for this decision was, in particular, logistical problems and restrictions on the supply of trucks from Japan. The Isuzu plant in Ulyanovsk has been operating since 2012. In 2021, 3,700 trucks left its assembly line.

Participants in the Russian advertising market expect that by the end of the year it will fall by 40- 60%, according to a study by NMi Group.

As of November 4, Russia’s international reserves amounted to $541.6 billion, since October 28 they have decreased by $8.5 billion, the Russian Central Bank said.

According to the results of 2022, the volume of parallel imports to Russia may exceed $15 billion in terms of value and 2 million tons in terms of weight, Ruslan Davydov, First Deputy Head of the Federal Customs Service, said.

The Japanese automotive corporation Mazda Motor has decided to cease operations in Russia and transfer its stake in a joint venture in Vladivostok to PJSC Sollers Auto, the group said in a statement.

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