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CDS Daily brief (11.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of November 11, as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation, 430 Ukrainian children were killed, and 829 were injured, reported the Prosecutor General’s Office with reference to data from juvenile prosecutors.

Over the past day, November 10, due to Russian armed aggression against Ukraine, 14 civilians were killed, and 15 more were injured, according to data from Oblasts’ military administrations, published by the deputy head of the Office of the President, Kyrylo Tymoshenko.

In Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, civilians were blown up on the Russian explosive devices; among the injured were four children, according to Tymoshenko.

As of 9 a.m. this morning, Oblast Military Administrations reported that the Russian army struck eight Oblasts of Ukraine over the past 24 hours.

Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of November 11:
  • At night, the enemy shelled a residential quarter in Mykolaiv. One of the rockets hit the 5-storey residential building. Preliminary, 7 killed and 2 wounded civilians were reported. The Russian occupiers also shelled the Mykolaiv and Bashtan districts of Mykolayiv Oblast.
  • The enemy hit one of the critical infrastructure facilities in Vinnytsia Oblast. No victims.
  • On November 10, the Zaporizhzhia, Vasylivka and Polohy districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast were under fire. 13 reports were received about the destruction of residential houses (apartments) and infrastructure facilities.
  • In Kharkiv Oblast over the past day, the enemy shelled towns and villages of the Kharkiv, Chuhuyiv and Kupyansk districts with mortars, jet and barrel artillery (1 wounded reported).
  • On November 10, 2 civilians were killed by enemy shelling in Bakhmut and Avdiivka of Donetsk Oblast. 5 more were wounded.
  • At night, the Russians shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. No victims were reported. The college and housing were damaged.

Today, after another exchange, 45 Ukrainian defenders returned from Russian captivity. Since the beginning of the Russian Federation’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, 1,183 Ukrainians have returned home. Also, Ukraine returned the bodies of two fallen heroes, stated Andriy Yermak, head of the President’s Office.

Power outages and critical infrastructure:

Because the Russian occupiers again hit energy facilities in Ukraine, particularly in Vinnytsia Oblast, emergency outages were applied in Kyiv on the morning of November 11, said Serhiy Kovalenko, CEO of the Yasno company. In the Chernihiv region, emergency power outages outside the scheduled ones are also possible, which means for more than 4 hours.

Occupied and liberated territories:

Kherson returned to the control of Ukraine, and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered the city. The only chance to avoid death for Russian servicemen is immediate surrender, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced on its official Facebook account.

In the center of Kherson, on Freedom Square, patriots raised the Ukrainian flag. The Ukrainian flag has also returned to the National Police Headquarters in Kherson. Multiple videos of people taking to the streets with Ukrainian flags and greeting Ukrainian defenders are spreading on social networks. Kherson residents gathered in the city center, on Freedom Square, where protests against the Russian invaders took place during the occupation. They unfurled a huge flag of Ukraine, which they brought to protest actions against the military of the Russian Federation at the beginning of the occupation.

However, Kherson’s humanitarian situation remains challenging, particularly with fuel, bread, electricity and communication, said Kherson Regional Council deputy Serhii Khlan at a briefing at the Ukraine-Ukrinform Media Center. He also noted that “many Russians [military] could not cross the Dnipro; they changed [in civilian] clothes and are hiding in the city.”

Natalia Humenyuk, head of the joint press center of Operational Command “South”, warned that “the fortifications of the Russians on the left bank are quite close to the territories they left behind. There may be powerful mass shelling.” Yaroslav Yanushevich, head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration, urged local residents not to rush to return.

The bodies of three civilians were found in the liberated village of Berislav district in Kherson Oblast. “During the initial examination, bodily injuries in the form of fractures of the bones of the skull were revealed,” the Kherson Regional Prosecutor’s Office reports.

The Russian invaders take away the property of music and art schools from the temporarily captured Melitopol, the [legally-elected Ukrainian] mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, stated on the telethon. “Just a few years ago, we opened [the schools] after reconstruction. And now furniture, equipment, LED screens – all of it [Russians] have started to take away,” Fedorov noted. He reported in Telegram that the invaders appropriated everything in the city and region – from state institutions and communal property to private cars and housing. Only in the last two weeks, they handed over the “Stone Tomb” museum complex to the administration of the Russian Federation and decided to “nationalize” 47 healthcare facilities.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 10) developments)

It is the 261st day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy tries to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories,

concentrates efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces, continues the equipment of defensive lines on the left bank of the Dnipro River, and conducts the offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions.

The enemy shelled populated areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Near the state border, Gremyach in the Chernihiv Oblast was shelled from mortars, and Strilecha, Ternova, Starytsia, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk and Kolodyazne in the Kharkiv Oblast was shelled from mortars, rocket and barrel artillery.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, providing it with infrastructure, territory and airspace. The formation of a Russian-Belarusian grouping of troops on the territory of the Republic of Belarus continues.

In order to replenish the current losses and strengthen the enemy grouping in the Kherson direction, the Russian military searched and detained personnel who retreated from the Kharkiv direction in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk Oblast. Typically, these groups are deployed without warm clothes, equipment, means of protection, and weapons; they are promised to be provided directly in the area of hostilities.

The training of personnel mobilized in the Russian military educational institutions continues. This category of personnel is expected to be deployed from Smolensk in the second decade of November. This group was trained at the Air Defense Academy of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

During the past day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck the enemy 8 times. As a result, 7 areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment, as well as the position of the enemy’s air defense equipment, were affected.

Additionally, Ukrainian missile forces and artillery units hit the enemy command post, 8 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 2 ammunition depots, 5 air defense systems and other important military targets.

The morale and psychological state of the personnel of the invasion forces remain low.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMC

The enemy shelled the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of Kislivka, Tabaivka, Berestove, Lisna Stinka, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Yampolivka and Lyman.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106 airborne division, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled from tanks and artillery the areas of Rozdolivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Kurdyumivka, Toretsk, New York, Mayorsk, Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Paraskoviivka, and Novomykhailivka.

The forces of the 10th separate mountain assault brigade repelled the enemy in Yakovlivka.

The advanced enemy units entered the southern outskirts of Pavlivka, but as of yesterday, they did not manage to gain a foothold.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37th of the 36th CA Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so- called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the Defence Forces’ positions near Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Novosilka, Neskuchne, Novopil, Temyrivka, Olhivske, Uspenivka, Chervone, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Hulyaipilske, Charivne, Orihiv and Stepove.

The Russian forces are increasing the fortification of positions in the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast to prevent the advance of the Defense Forces units. In order to speed up the pace of engineering work, the Russian occupiers are trying to involve the local civilian population.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Sofiivka section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th CA Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd AC of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Musiiivka, Illinka and Novokiivka of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were directly hit by artillery fire.

During the past day, in the Petropavlivka – Novoraysk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced 7 kilometers and took control of 6 villages. The situation is similar in the Pervomaiske

– Kherson direction, where Ukrainian troops also took control of 6 villages. The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Snigurivka, Bruskinske, Kyselivka, Blahodatne, Borozenske, Pavlivka, Vasylivka, Yevhenivka, Bobrovy Kut, Stanislav, Oleksandrivka, Pravdyne, Soldatske, Chkalovka, Myrolyubivka, Tamarine, Kucherske, Pyatykhatky, Kachkarivka, Sablukivka, Mylove, Novokayiry, Bezvodne, Sadok, Ishchenka, Starytsia, and a number of other villages were abandoned by the enemy and are in the gray zone.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine and control the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and to maintain control over the captured territories.

17 enemy ships are at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Two ships carry 16 Kalibr missiles.

In the Sea of Azov, the enemy continues to control sea communications, keeping 1 ship on combat duty.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 17 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saky airfields were deployed. The enemy monitors the waters adjacent to the grain corridor, thus keeping itself ready for the renewal of blockade actions of Ukrainian ports.

After completing a 1.5-month training course, 668 mobilized personnel were sent from occupied Sevastopol to the combat zone in the south of Ukraine. Most of them are equipped with 1970s

weapons. The occupation authorities are trying to raise their motivation with one-time payments to families of 200,000 rubles.

The enemy’s shelling of the coastal regions of Ukraine continues. At least seven people died from the Russian rocket attack on Mykolaiv last night. According to the local authorities, at approximately 3:05, a missile from the S-300 anti-aircraft missile complex hit a five-story residential building.

Grain initiative: as of the evening of November 10, 3 vessels with 21.6 thousand tons of oil left the ports of “Odesa”, “Chornomorsk” and “Pivdenny” for the countries of Asia and Europe. 9 ships move along the “Grain Corridor” to Ukrainian ports for loading. Among them, the STARVOS bulker is loaded with 55,000 wheat for Yemen’s citizens suffering from the food crisis. Since the first ship with Ukrainian food left, 10.1 million tons of agricultural products have been exported. A total of

435 ships with agricultural products left Ukrainian ports for Asian, European and African countries.

The European Union calls on Russia to extend the duration of the “grain agreement”. This was stated in the EU’s statement at the Permanent Council of the OSCE on Thursday in Vienna. The EU emphasizes that “food and hunger should never be used as weapons of war.” “However, Russia deliberately exacerbated the global food security crisis by destroying or looting Ukrainian grain stocks, disrupting production, imposing quota restrictions on its own exports of food and fertilizers, and imposing a blockade on Ukrainian seaports,” the EU said. In this context, the Black Sea Grain Initiative is key to providing food to the most vulnerable populations in the world, the document states.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 11.11

Personnel – almost 79,400 people (+710);

Tanks – 2,814 (+10)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,696 (+14);

Artillery systems – 1,817 (+12);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 393 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 205 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,259 (+17); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,505 (+6); Intercepted cruise missiles – 399 (0);

Boats / ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Ukraine is building a wall on the border with Belarus. “A ditch, an embankment, a reinforced concrete fence with barbed wire are engineering barriers being built in Volyn [Oblast]. About 3 km of the border have already been arranged; the work is ongoing,” said Deputy Head of the OP

of Ukraine, Kyrylo Tymoshenko. Fortification structures are also being built in Rivne, Zhytomyr Oblast and other regions bordering Russia.

As of September 15, 2022, indirect losses in the agriculture sector of Ukraine as a result of the aggression of the Russian Federation amounted to 34.25 billion US dollars, according to the results of the “Review of Indirect Losses from the War in the Agriculture of Ukraine”, prepared by the KSE Agrocenter and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the Ministry’s press service reports. The indirect losses take into account the lost income from the decrease in the amount of produced products and the decrease in domestic prices, as well as the additional costs that producers are forced to bear due to the war.

In the conditions of a full-scale war, Ukraine increased product exports to the European Union by 6% compared to the pre-war period in 2021, stated by the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna at the Re: Open Zakarpattia forum.

Rocket shellings and power outages have devastated Ukrainian restaurant and cafe businesses. On October 10, the first day of massive attacks on the infrastructure, sales of cafes and restaurants in Ukraine fell by 22% compared to the same day of the previous week. In Kyiv, this indicator reached -27%. The Ukrainian restaurant automation company Poster provides such research data. In the middle and at the end of October, the indicators did not recover. At the same time, the situation improved at the beginning of November. The turnover in Kyiv increased by 6%, compared to the beginning of October, Dnipro – by 5%, Lviv – by 15%, and Odesa – by 30%.

International diplomatic aspect

On November 11, Europe commemorates the end of the Great War, Poland celebrates its Independence Day, and Ukrainians rejoice liberation of the city of Kherson.

“Since 1918, we have marked Armistice Day and paid tribute to the brave men and women who have served to give us peace. Yet as we salute our troops this year, this peace has been shattered by a Russian aggressor. As we honour the war dead of the past, we also remember Ukraine’s fight for freedom today. The UK stands steadfast with our friends and allies in defence of freedom and democracy in Ukraine, and I am proud to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with a historic ally in Paris today,” Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said.

“This event occurred 123 years after the First Polish Republic had ceased to exist—the result of an arrangement between Russia, Prussia, and Austria… During that time, although Poland disappeared from the map of Europe, it never ceased to exist in the hearts of Poles… Putin’s propaganda machine is trying to prove that Ukraine does not exist as an independent state and that there is no such thing as the Ukrainian nation. In February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody believed that the latter could win. Its fate, like Poland’s a century before, appeared to be sealed. And yet this, too, has proved not to be the case,” wrote Poland’s Prime Minister in a Newsweek magazine article. “The experiences of Poland and Ukraine demonstrate that history is not a trap from which there is no escape and that even the power of a mighty state must take seriously the power of a nation which desires freedom,” concluded Mateusz Morawiecki.

At a joint news conference with the Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, Polish President Andrzej Duda: “We are supporting Ukraine, and this is the path towards building our own security.”

Despite Russia’s invasion forces’ retreat from Kherson, chief Putin’s mouthpiece claimed that “it is a subject of the Russian Federation – it is legally fixed and defined. There are no changes, and there can be no changes.” The conflict “can only be ended after its goals have been achieved – or by achieving those goals through peace negotiations,” Dmitry Peskov said. “However, due to the position taken by the Ukrainian side, peace talks are impossible,” he added.

Presidents of Turkey and Hungary expressed their belief that Ukraine and Russia should start negotiations for a “ceasefire, negotiations and peace needed as soon as possible.” A month ago, Viktor Orban said that a truce should be concluded not by Russia and Ukraine but by Russia and the United States. “Whoever thinks that this war will be ended through Russian-Ukrainian negotiations does not live in this world,” said the Hungarian politician who acts as the Kremlin’s asset in NATO and the EU.

A UK national who worked as a security guard at the British Embassy in Berlin has admitted spying for Russia. Meanwhile, Swedish prosecutors have indicted two men for gross espionage on behalf of Russia. One of the men is also indicted for gross unauthorized handling of secret information.

The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has declared the Woodrow Wilson Center “undesirable.” The Office believes that the activities of the Center pose “a threat to the foundations of the constitutional order and the security of the Russian Federation.” Ironically, several fellows from the Centre, Dmitry Trenin alike, were very much respected and treated as independent experts despite allegedly having close ties with Russia’s security services. Russia’s all-out invasion was a watershed moment for Mr Trenin to turn from an independent scholar into a propagandist of imperial conquest. Such degradation was more natural for Sergey Karaganov and Fyodor Lukyanov, who, from the beginning, were serving as Kremlin’s soft power tools, wrapping up Putin’s wishes into scientific covers.

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