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CDS Daily brief (14.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

On Monday, November 14, from 00:00 to 24:00, electricity shutdowns are planned in the city of Kyiv and 8 oblasts, namely Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Donetsk, Ukrenergo informed. Blackouts in other regions of Ukraine are currently not expected.

On November 13, 10 civilians were injured in Ukraine due to the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported

The number of vacancies registered in the State Employment Service of Ukraine decreased by 55.9% during January-October of the current year, the data published by the State Employment Service indicates. As of November 1, the Employment Service registered more than 32,300 job offers. Whereas on the same date a year earlier, there were 70.3 thousand offers.

On November 14, a Cabinet resolution will enter into force that allows Ukrainians who found themselves outside of the country without documents to get the documents necessary for their return remotely. “The identity card for returning to Ukraine is an 8-page booklet that will allow Ukrainians in Russia to leave through third countries, in particular Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Georgia. Previously, it could only be issued by diplomatic missions and consular institutions, but there are none of them left in Russia after the start of the full-scale invasion” – Zmina Human Rights Center explained.

Around midnight, the Russian army launched a missile attack on Kharkiv, city mayor Igor Terekhov said. The Industrial district of the city, most likely an industrial enterprise, came under attack. No victims of significant damage were reported.

During the past day, the Russian forces shelled Kupyansk and Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, located near the contact line and the border with Russia. A residential building was damaged in Vovchansk, a boiler house and a lyceum were damaged in Shevchenkive village of Kupiansk district. According to the Regional Emergency Medical Center, a 48-year-old man and a 26-year- old woman were hospitalized with injuries in Kupyansk.

In Derhachi, an unknown explosive device exploded yesterday and a 45-year-old man was hospitalized. A 54-year-old man was injured by an explosive device in the village of Volokhov, Chuhuyiv district, Kharkiv Oblast.

In Donetsk Oblast, the Russian forces launched a rocket attack on Kurakhove in the evening, damaging high-rise buildings and private houses. One person was injured, the local Military State Administration reported. 4 other communities in Donetsk Oblast also came under Russian fire.

Today, the Russian military shelled two districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with MLRS and heavy artillery, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Council, Mykola Lukashuk reported. Residential buildings and civilian infrastructure sustained damages.

Today, during repair work on a high-voltage power line near the village of Bezruky, Kharkiv Oblast, a specialized electrician car with employees of Kharkovoblenergo hit a mine. At the time of the explosion, there were five workers in the car, who came to the community to do repairs. They sustained minor injuries, spokeswoman of JSC “Kharkivoblenergo” Maryna Shevchenko said.

Mykolayiv city mayor noted a decreased intensity of the shelling in the last two weeks. Mykolaiv was bombarded very actively throughout the war, but the last time the city was shelled was three days ago. A five-story building collapsed killing seven people. Since then, there have been explosions on the outskirts of the city, but no explosions in the city itself, Mayor of Mykolaiv Oleksandr Sienkievych said. He stressed, however, that coming back to the city is still dangerous.

Currently, there are no more than 70-80 thousand residents in Kherson, the Office of the President reported. This is a quarter of the pre-war population of about 280,000 people.

For the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukrzaliznytsia is resuming passenger rail service to Mykolaiv. The first train to Mykolaiv is to leave from Kyiv on November 14 at 10:00 p.m. The last long-distance passenger train came to Mykolaiv on February 24. It’s also planned to restore railway service to Kherson in the next several days.

Investigators seized almost 1,500 Russian textbooks in one of the city’s lyceums in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. They were brought to Ukraine during the occupation to extend the reach of the Russian propaganda, Serhiy Bolvinov, head of the Investigative Department of the State Police in the Kharkiv region, said.

Occupied territories:

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia plans to move the civilian population out of Kreminna, Sievierodonetsk, and Rubizhne due to the difficult humanitarian situation in Luhansk Oblast. Kreminna has been under Russian occupation since the end of April, Rubizhne – since mid-May, Sievierodonetsk – since the end of June.

According to the advisor to Mariupol city mayor Petro Andryushchenko, graffiti saying “Help, we are freezing” became common in the city of Mariupol. Mariupol currently has no regular supply of electricity, water, and gas. Currently, more than 100,000 residents remain in the city. The city is blocked and they are not allowed to move out. Also, in Mariupol, the occupying authorities have started accepting applications for Russian passports, Andryushchenko said.

Collaborator Maksym Zubarev, who headed the occupation administration in the village of Yakymivka, Melitopol district, died today. The announcement about his death appeared on his Facebook page. It said that he died in the Yakymivka district as a result of a “terrorist attack”.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 13) Developments)

It is the 264th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The Russian military is trying to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories. It concentrates its efforts on restraining the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in certain directions, continues to build up defense lines on the left bank of the Dnipro River, and at the same time conducts offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions.

In order to replenish personnel losses and form units, the Russian military continues to move mobilized personnel to the areas of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. Civil defense training is held in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.

Over the past 24 hours, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka and Bilogorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Bilohorivka, Kurdyumivka, Vodyane and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.

The Russian military does not stop shelling towns and villages and positions of the Ukrainian troops along the contact line. It fortifies frontiers in certain directions and conducts aerial reconnaissance. In violation of the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of war, the Russian forces continue to strike critical infrastructure. The city of Kharkiv and the towns and villages of Kharkiv Oblast were affected by the Russian fire. Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 4 missile strikes and 13 air strikes and fired about 60 MLRS rounds. Near the state border, the enemy shelled Mykolaivka, Zalizniy Mist, Leonivka in Chernihiv Oblast, Vovkivka, Zarutske, Sosnivka, Khodyna, Fotovizh, Ulanov, Svarkove, Volfyne, Pavlivka and Kindrativka in Sumy Oblast, Vodrodhenivske, Udy, Strilecha, Ohirtseve, Anyskyne, Ambarne, Kolodyazne and Kamianka in Kharkiv Oblast.

Over the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces made 16 strikes against the enemy hitting 10 areas of weapons and military equipment concentration, and 6 anti-aircraft missile systems positions. The Ukrainian defense forces shot down an Orlan-10 UAV. Units of the rocket and artillery troops hit 2 enemy control points, 11 areas of manpower, weapons and military equipment concentration, and 2 other important enemy targets.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMC

The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas near Kyselivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, Berestove, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka and Nevske.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106 airborne division, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled the areas of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Rozdolivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka with tanks and artillery.

Since November 10, the so-called “evacuation” of the property of the Donetsk Railway Administration to the city of Ilovaisk has been observed.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37th of the 36th CA Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the socalled LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Novopil, Temyrivka, Olhivske and Zaliznychne.

In some temporarily occupied villages of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, local residents are evicted from their homes to house servicemen of the occupying Russian forces.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th CA Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd AC of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Towns and villages near the contact line were hit by mortar, barrel and rocket artillery fire. The Russian forces fired artillery directly at Vyshchetarasivka, Dobra Nadiya, and Illinka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

On the night of November 13, the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed an enemy ammunition depot, about 40 Russian personnel, 2 armored vehicles, and 10 trucks in the area of Kairy.

A high level of mine danger persists in the liberated villages of Kherson Oblast. An intensification of the Russian aerial reconnaissance has been noted, which may indicate that the Russian forces are planning to fire at both military and civilian targets. Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to carry out stabilization measures.

On November 12, the Russian occupiers launched mortar shells at the private sector of Hornostaivka, whose residents refused the so-called evacuation. As a result of the shelling, two local residents were killed and three were injured.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine laying.

The Russian fleet keeps 12 surface ships and boats at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. There are no Kalibr missile carriers among them.

In the Sea of Azov, the Russian military continues to control sea communications, keeping 1 ship and 1 boat on combat duty.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 16 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

The Grain Initiative: in the last two days, 12 ships with 400,000 tons of agricultural products left the ports of Greater Odesa for countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe.

Among them are bulk carriers STAVROS and CEBIHAN, which will deliver 55,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat to Oman. 55 thousand tons also go to Yemen, whose population are on the verge of starvation. Bulk carrier EAST WIND 1 took 25 thousand tons of grain to Libya.

In two days, the ports of Greater Odesa accepted 8 ships for loading. The total cargo capacity is 200,000 tons of agricultural products.

Currently, 6 vessels are moving along the “grain corridor” in the direction of Ukraine to load 317,000 tons of agricultural products.

Since August 1, 456 vessels have left the ports of Greater Odesa, which exported 10.7 million tons of Ukrainian food to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa.

Today, working-level negotiations on the extension of the “grain initiative” involving Ukraine, Turkey, the UN and the Russian Federation began in Istanbul (Turkey).

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 14.11

Personnel – almost 81370 people (+510);

Tanks 2,848 (+8)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,748 (+6);

Artillery systems – 1,839 (+2);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 393 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 206 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,316 (+21); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,509 (+2); Intercepted cruise missiles – 399 (0);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

President Zelensky visited the recently liberated Kherson today. “We are moving forward,” Zelensky said, addressing the military in Kherson. “We are ready for peace, peace for all our country… This [the liberation of Kherson] is the beginning of the end of the war,” he said. “It is impossible to kill Ukraine.” When asked about the further directions of the offensive of the Armed Forces, Zelenskyi said, “It will not going to be Moscow, we are only interested in the territories of Ukraine”.

During the meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council on November 14, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba formulated ten steps to true peace in Ukraine. “These are ten steps that will ensure that both Ukraine and the EU will survive this military winter,” he told fellow ministers.

  • Maintaining and strengthening sanctions against Russia
  • Supporting Ukraine with weapons
  • Supporting Ukraine with money
  • Humanitarian support to Ukraine
  • Preservation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative
  • Recognition of the Holodomor as a genocide of the Ukrainian people
  • Start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU
  • Creation of a special tribunal regarding the crime of aggression against Ukraine
  • International isolation of Russia
  • Ignoring Russian ultimatums

The minister considers the last two points to be the most important.

International diplomatic aspect

Meeting President Xi Jinping, President Joe Biden “raised Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine and Russia’s irresponsible threats of nuclear use.” Both leaders “reiterated their agreement that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.” It’s a clear message to Vladimir Putin, who decided not to meet the criticism of the Western leaders at the G20 summit face-to-face against the backdrop of the Kherson retreat and footage of Volodymyr Zelensky visiting the recently liberated city. Putin has been mocked many times for his oversized table meetings, staged encounters (with disguised bodyguards pretending to be workers or ordinary Russians), and even video-edited “holograms” of the stewardess.

Unfortunately, Ukraine’s leader won’t address the G20 summit via the video link, for the hosts decided that criticism of Russia’s aggression would overshadow the positive agenda of the summit. However, softening the tone turned out to be a problem for agreeing on the final communiqué, which might not be issued at all.

“He is not conducting negotiations of any kind. He is not discussing settlement of the war in Ukraine,” the White House spokesperson commented on the meeting between the CIA Director and Russia’s chief of intelligence in Ankara. “He is conveying a message on the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia and the risks of escalation to strategic stability.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister wrote on his Facebook: “we will liberate our land and people; Russia must withdraw its occupying forces from the territory of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders.” He warned that “Russia is pretending to play a constructive role, but in fact wants to take a break to recover from defeats and later continue the war with new strength. We will not go for it and urge our partners not to play along with Moscow… Kyiv does not even theoretically consider any concessions regarding the Crimea issue.”

The Finnish Foreign Minister echoed Ukraine’s statements on the possibility of talks after Russia’s troops’ withdrawal from the illegally occupied and annexed territories: “I think the final agreements between Ukraine and Russia would be made only when Russia has been withdrawing from the areas.” “No, such conditions are certainly unacceptable. Our president [Putin] has repeatedly said that we are ready for negotiations. But these negotiations must, of course, take into account the situation on the ground,” Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko commented on Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto’s statement.

“Ukraine will decide what to do. Our duty is to support them,” the EU chief diplomat replied to the question of whether Ukraine should be ready to negotiate. Josep Borrell went on to say: “It seems that the strategy of supporting Ukraine militarily was the good one. We have to continue. We have to continue supporting Ukraine with our military capacities, putting pressure on Russia, and reaching out to the rest of the world to face the consequences of this war.”

The EU is launching the [Military Assistance] training Mission for the Ukrainian army (EUMAM). About 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be trained in Poland and Germany by instructors from several European countries.

The UN GA Resolution for Furtherance of Remedy and Reparation for Aggression against Ukraine was adopted by 94 ayes, 14 noes, and 73 abstained. “The requirements of the Resolution adopted are aimed not only at restoring justice but at issuing a serious warning to all those who might be inclined to embark on the path of aggression, occupation, and annexation… The adoption of this Resolution provides the necessary conditions to restore normal economic relations in the region, the speedy elimination of the consequences of the environmental crisis, and compensation for the damage” – these were words of Soviet Ambassador Vorontsov about the adoption of the UN Security Council resolution on Kuwait in 1991 quoted by Ukrainian Ambassador Kyslytsya in 2022. Though Putin’s Russia doesn’t even think about stopping the war of aggression and paying for the damage, the Resolution lays the ground for making Russia pay either against its will or after the collapse of the current regime.

Russia, relevant news

The Canadian outerwear and sportswear producer Helly Hansen has decided to leave Russia, Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported.

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