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CDS Daily brief (15.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

On November 15, Russia launched a massive missile attack against Ukraine. The Russian forces fired about a hundred missiles, thus exceeding the massive missile strike on October 10, when the Russian military directed 84 missiles at Ukraine, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said. Ukrainian air defense shot down 70 of them and 10 Shaheds, announced the deputy head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko.

15 energy facilities were damaged, and more than 7 million households were disconnected from the electricity supply.

14 Russian strategic aviation Tu-95 missile-carrying aircraft, ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Iranian kamikaze attack drones “Shahed-136/131” were involved in another terrorist act against Ukraine.

In total, about 70 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles were fired from the north of the Caspian Sea and the Volgodonsk region (Rostov Oblast). Also, about 20 Kalibr sea-based missiles from the Black Sea and 10 kamikaze drones. According to preliminary data, the air defense of Ukraine’s air defense shot down 73 of more than 90 enemy cruise missiles and destroyed 10 of 10 kamikaze drones launched by the aggressor over Ukraine. All available weapons were used for this purpose, including air defense systems provided by Western partners recently.

According to the Kyiv City Military Administration, air defense units shot down 18 missiles out of 21 fired by Russian invaders in the Kyiv Oblast.

According to Kyiv mayor Vitaliy Klychko, Russian missiles hit residential buildings in the city’s centre. One woman was killed. In the capital, at least half of the consumers were left without electricity due to the Russian attacks. Emergency power outages started, and the previously announced power outages schedule is not valid, DTEK electric power company said.

A critical situation with electricity supply has developed in the Kyiv Oblast after a massive missile attack by Russian troops, stated Oleksiy Kuleba, head of the Kyiv Regional Military Administration. However, according to Kuleba, all hospitals and critical infrastructure facilities are working; they are provided with an alternative power source.

“Approximately 30 objects have been damaged – private and critical infrastructure objects. The police are working everywhere, inspections of the scene of events are being conducted everywhere, remnants of missiles are being collected,” Minister of Internal Affairs Denys Monastyrskyi said. The minister also informed that at the moment, it is known about one dead person in Kyiv and six wounded – three in Kyiv and three more in other towns. At the same time, he emphasized that it is too early to talk about the final number of victims.

Russia also launched missile strikes on Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Volyn, Lviv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Kharkiv Oblast. As a result, emergency power outages started throughout Ukraine.

  • 90% of Ternopil Oblast is left without electricity, Volodymyr Trush, head of the Ternopil Oblast Military Administration (OMA), said.
  • In Lviv, the heat supply is temporarily suspended, 80% of the city remains without electricity, and there is no hot water, city mayor Andriy Sadovy said.
  • The head of the Rivne OMA, Vitaliy Koval, said that “part of the Oblast and the city of Rivne are without electricity.”
  • The head of the Volyn OMA, Yuriy Pogulyajko, reported explosions in the Kovel District. “An energy infrastructure object in the Kovel district is hit. In connection with this, power outages are possible in Volyn.
  • Serhii Hamalii, head of the Khmelnytskyi OMA, said: “We have 2 hits in the Khmelnytskyi territorial community. There is no electricity supply in the part of the city of Khmelnytskyi.”
  • The mayor of Zhytomyr, Serhiy Sukhomlin, reported that two strikes hit the city’s energy system, leaving the entire city without electricity.
  • Kharkiv was also hit and is experiencing power outages. Due to the damage to the energy infrastructure facilities during the Russian missile attack, the entire Kharkiv Oblast is staying without electricity, Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv OMA, stated.
  • Dmytro Lunin, the head of the Poltava OMA, reported a hit in the Kremenchuk district. The infrastructure object was also affected. In Poltava Oblast, emergency power outages were implemented for all 10 lines.
  • Ukrainian air defense forces shot down eight Shahed kamikaze drones and a Kalibr cruise missile over the Odesa Oblast.

In Kryvyi Rih, all the miners who were blocked in the mines due to power outages due to rocket attacks were rescued. Earlier, Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the Kryvyi Rih military administration, reported that there were 566 miners underground during the explosions in four mines. The head of the military administration noted that three enemy missiles hit the energy infrastructure object, destroying it. Rescuers are fighting a large-scale fire.

Emergency power outages have been applied in all regions, and people report [internet] communication interruptions. In addition, about 20 trains are delayed, and railway stations in several cities are de-energized, Ukrzaliznytsia reported.

Moldova was also affected because of the Russian missile strike against Ukraine. It stopped receiving electricity from Romania, after which the light went out in some regions of the country, “Europeiska Pravda” reported with reference to NewsMaker and TV8. According to the power grid operator Moldelectrica, the electricity supply from Romania to Moldova was cut off around 4:40 p.m. The information on the company’s website shows that the Isakcha-Vulkaneshti-MDRES high-voltage line ceased to function. This is the main transmission line through which electricity from Romania comes to Moldova.

Mobile operator “Vodafone Ukraine” has warned about temporary restrictions in the operation of services due to shelling and power shortages. It urged users to limit their use of mobile internet. Mobile operator “Kyivstar” also warned that communication may be cut off in some places due to shelling and power outages.

Liberated territories

As of November 14, there is information about the destruction or damage of more than three thousand residential and non-residential infrastructure objects, including 123 objects in the city of Kherson, announced Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal at a government meeting, Ukrinform reports. Shmyhal noted that the Russians destroyed 23 healthcare institutions, 22 educational institutions, 33 bridges, 14 railway stations, gas, electricity, water and heat supply facilities in the Kherson Oblast. The Prime Minister also said that criminologists are working on the territory liberated from the Russians, and more than 400 war crimes committed by the Russian military have already been recorded.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 14) developments)

It is the 265th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The Russian military is trying to maintain control over the temporarily captured territories. It concentrates its efforts on restraining the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in certain directions, continues to build up defense lines on the left bank of the Dnipro River, and at the same time conducts offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past day, the Defense Forces’ units repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Novoselivske of Luhansk Oblast; Bilohorivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Vremivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novokalynivka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske of Donetsk Oblast.

The enemy does not stop shelling populated areas and Defense Forces’ positions along the contact line. It conducts aerial reconnaissance, and continues to strike critical infrastructure, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of war.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has launched 4 missile strikes and 23 air strikes, and carried out more than MLRS 70 rounds. Near the state border, the Russian military shelled from mortars, barrel and jet artillery the areas of Vorozhba, Mykolaivka, Romashkove, Stepok, and Yunakivka in Sumy Oblast and from artillery – in the areas of Hlyboke, Ohirtseve, Okhrymivka, Reznikove, Starytsia, Strilecha, Ternova in Kharkiv Oblast.

The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, providing it with infrastructure, territory and airspace. There is still a threat of

the enemy launching missile and air strikes, particularly with the use of strike UAVs from the territory and airspace of the Republic of Belarus.

In the temporarily occupied Crimea, the gradual restoration of road traffic through the Kerch bridge is noted. Drivers of passenger cars are allowed to drive through it after a thorough inspection. The rest of the transport connection is carried out via ferry crossings.

During the past 24 hours, the Defense Forces aircraft launched 21 strikes against the enemy, hitting 18 areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment, and 3 positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems. In addition, the defense forces shot down 2 UAVs of the “Orlan” type.

Over the past day, Ukraine’s missile forces and artillery hit 3 enemy command and control points, 19 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, the position of an anti-aircraft missile complex and 2 ammunition depots.

President Putin signed additional decrees clarifying the procedure for mobilization and expanding the provisions on conscription into the Russian Armed Forces. From November 14, foreign citizens can serve in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The decree also allows Russian officials to conscript Russians with dual citizenship or foreigners with residence permits, allowing the Kremlin to recruit forces internationally and among Russian immigrants.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMC

The enemy shelled the Defense Forces’ positions near Dvorichna, Zagryzove, Kyslivka, Kolodyazne, Kopanky, Kotlyarivka, and Tabaivka in Kharkiv Oblast; Berestove, Ivanivka, in Donetsk Oblast; Makiivka, Nevske, Novoselivske, Ploshanka, Stelmakhivka, in Luhansk Oblast. Russian troops unsuccessfully tried to restore their previously lost positions in the northeast of the Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukrainian troops continued their counteroffensive in the Svatove-Kreminna line, liberated Makiivka, and attacked Russian positions in the Chervonopopivka area; battles continue in the areas of Lysychansk, Novoselivske, Volodymyrivka, and Stelmakhivka. The Defense Forces

repelled attacks by the “Wagner” PMC and armed formations of the so-called LPR separatists near Torske and Bilohoroivka.

Units of the 1st tank army of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are holding the defense in the Novoselivka district.

In the temporarily occupied territory of the Luhansk Oblast, the enemy is looking for abandoned private houses to house servicemen who arrived to replace the losses of the occupying units. In Novoaidar, the Russian invaders distributed notices to local residents demanding to come to the so-called “administration” to clarify the information about abandoned housing.

In Milovatka, the Defense Forces destroyed the enemy unit’s headquarters; it is known about 30 dead and more than 20 wounded Russian invaders.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106 airborne division, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

From tanks and artillery, the enemy shelled the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Hryhorivka, Ozaryanivka, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Serebryanka, Soledar, Spirne, Toretsk, Yakovlivka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Nevelske, Novomykhailivka, Novoselivka Druga, Pervomaiske in Donetsk Oblast.

The enemy intensified offensive actions in the area of Bakhmut and Avdiyivka. Still, units of the United Forces repelled attacks near Verkhnyokamyanske, Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Spirne, Toretsk, Kurdyumivka, Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.

The Russian troops entered Mayorsk, but Ukrainian forces pushed them out of it. Assault units of the “Wagner” PMC advanced deep into the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut; fierce battles continued on the southeastern outskirts of Soledar, the Russian troops advanced to the northwestern outskirts of Opytny.

On November 14, Russian troops dropped several K-51 aerosol grenades on Ukrainian strongholds. The use of chemical weapons such as K-51 aerosol grenades is directly prohibited by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37th of the 36th CA Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so- called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the Defence Forces’ positions in Bohoyavlenka, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva, Neskuchne, Novopil, Pavlivka, Paraskoviivka, Prechystivka in Donetsk Oblast, Biloghirya, Dorozhnyanka, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Novopokrovka, Temyrivka.

The Ukrainian Joint Forces repulsed attacks by the 40th and 155th separate marines brigades of the Pacific Fleet and the “Cascade” Battalion near Pavlivka. However, fighting continues on the northern outskirts of the city.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th CA Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd AC of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

The enemy shelled Vyshchetarasivka, Dobra Nadiya, and Illinka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; Dudchany, Novooleksandrivka, Odradokamyanka and Tomaryne in Kherson region. Russian troops moved to defense on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the areas of Hornostaivka, Lyubymivka, and Petropavlivka east of Beryslav. On November 13 and 14, Russian troops continued to carry out artillery, air and missile strikes on the Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the right bank of the Kherson Oblast. On November 14, they fired anti-aircraft guided missiles at Ochakiv to hit the fire means that ensure Ukraine’s fire control over the Kinburn spit. On November 14, Russian troops shelled the private sector of Hornostayivka with mortars because the civilian population refused to evacuate.

Ukrainian troops struck the Russian troops’ concentration areas on the left bank of the Dnipro. They also shelled the concentration of enemy troops in Dniproany, Chaplynka, and Hola Prystan.

Ukrainian Defence Forces landed on the Kinburn spit on the night of November 13-14. Russian military bloggers reported that Ukrainian landing groups were formed in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and tried to land on the Kinburn spit and advanced to the village of Heroyske.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

The enemy has 10 surface ships and a submarine at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. The submarine carries 4 Kalibr missiles.

In the Sea of Azov, the enemy continues to control sea communications, keeping 1 ship and 1 boat on combat duty.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were deployed.

Grain initiative: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky proposed to expand the grain export initiative to the Mykolaiv and Olvia ports of the Mykolaiv Oblast. The President noted to the participants of the G20 summit that, ongoing in Indonesia, the right to food is a fundamental human right. Volodymyr Zelensky said that the grain export initiative should be continued indefinitely regardless of the war’s end. “Thanks to the strong participation of the United Nations, Turkey and other partners, we have shown how the cooperation of a few can restore food security to the many. Since July, Ukraine has exported more than 10 million tons of food by the sea. We can increase exports by another million tons every month. For this, I propose expanding the grain initiative to our other ports, particularly those of Mykolaiv and Olvia ports in the Mykolaiv Oblast,” said Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russia will agree to continue the UN-brokered grain agreement, which allows the export of Ukrainian agricultural products through the Black Sea, reported Bloomberg with reference to four people familiar with the situation. The agreement expires on November 19: the publication’s sources said Russia would likely agree to an extension. However, they did not specify whether the Russian Federation would put forward new conditions in exchange for an extension of the agreement.

The initial agreement, concluded at the end of July through the mediation of Turkey and the UN, was designed for 120 days. The agreement provides for an automatic extension for another 120 days unless one of the parties decides to cancel or change it.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 15.11

Personnel – almost 82,080 people (+710);

Tanks – 2,861 (+13)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,773 (+25);

Artillery systems – 1,850 (+11);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 393 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 208 (+2); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,351 (+35); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,511 (+2); Intercepted cruise missiles – 399 (0);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

Russia’s Foreign Minister said, “Russia does not refuse negotiations with Ukraine.” However, he thinks Kyiv put forward “unrealistic and inadequate conditions.” While Sergey Lavrov was mulling over the talking thing, Russia conducted several waves of airstrikes across Ukraine, including attacks in Kyiv that struck residential buildings and, elsewhere, attacks on critical and energy infrastructure.

Commander-in-Chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valery Zaluzhny, in his telephone conversation with General Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, assured that Ukraine “will fight until we have no strength. Our objective is to liberate the whole Ukrainian land from Russian occupation. We will not stop in this way under any circumstances. Ukrainian soldiers will accept no negotiations, agreements, or compromise solutions. The only term for negotiation: Russia must leave all the captured territories.”

According to US intelligence sources, the Kremlin may have delayed announcing its retreat from Kherson, unwilling to give a boost to Joe Biden ahead of the midterm elections. In the meantime, Russians used civilians as a shield and a coverup for their retreat. Russian troops dressed as civilians took part in the “evacuation” effort. However, Russian social networks still report heavy casualties in their military trying to flee across the river.

The US is reportedly studying the possibility of modifying the multi-use Gray Eagle drone that would allow its delivery to Ukraine. “There’s still real interest in providing this particular system, provided we can make the necessary modifications, and they are still useful to Ukraine on the battlefield,” a US official told CNN.

Meanwhile, according to Axios, a coalition of more than a dozen conservative groups is calling on Congress not to pass any additional aid package for Ukraine until the 118 Congress is sworn in. Traditionally sympathetic to Moscow, the Koch network is against supporting Ukraine. The other organizations include Americans for Prosperity, the Heritage Foundation, FreedomWorks, Conservative Partnership Institute, and America First Policy Institute. Claiming “understanding” of the desire to help the people of Ukraine. They “are the victims of a brutal and immoral Russian invasion,” the appeal reads, “however, do not negate the responsibility of the United States Congress to place American interests first and foremost when shaping US foreign policy.”

“The Zambian Government has requested the Russian authorities to urgently provide information on the circumstances under which a Zambian citizen, serving a prison sentence in Moscow, could have been recruited to fight in Ukraine and subsequently lose his life,” stated the Foreign Ministry’s press release. A 23-year-old Zambian Government sponsored student, while studying Engineering at the Moscow Engineering Physics Institute in Russia, was sentenced to 9 years for a drug-related offense. For an unknown reason, he became a part of Russia’s invasion forces and was killed on the battlefield in Ukraine. It happened before the Russian President signed (November 14) a decree allowing foreign citizens to serve in the Russian army. At the same time, the case with the Zambian student isn’t surprising given that the Wagner private military company operates in Russia even though such activities aren’t allowed by the legislation. Yevgeniy Prigozhyn, who owns Wagner PMC, recruits prisoners, including those who committed serious crimes, for the war in Ukraine, though it isn’t stipulated by Russian legislation. Russia was calling on mercenaries from Syria and Afghanistan to fight on its side, though being a mercenary is a national and international crime.

Germany has opened a quay adapted to import LNG at the port of Wilhelmshaven. The first floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) ship from Norway is expected to arrive in December. The construction was launched as a response to Russia’s weaponization of energy. Meanwhile, Germany’s natural gas storages are filled to their full capacity, while about 95.6% across the EU as a whole. Gazprom’s gas production and exports dropped 19.2% (to 359,7 BCM) and 43.4%, correspondingly year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2022. Russia is heavily dependent on the western-bound pipelines for its export and has limited ability to boost its LNG production. Though it jumped 13.5% annually to 21.6 million tons in the first eight months of this year, it was catching up after a surge of 59% year-on-year to 2.4 million tons in August. Moscow announced its plans to build another pipeline to China, but it will take a lot of resources and won’t be operational until at least 2030.

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