CDS Daily brief (16.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of November 15, in Ukraine, as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation, 431 children died, and 835 were injured, the Prosecutor General’s Office reported with reference to the data of juvenile prosecutors.

103 children who were forcibly removed from Ukraine by the Russians have already been returned, stated the deputy head of the Juvenile Prevention Department of the National Police, Yaroslav Shanko, at a briefing at the Ukraine-Ukrinform Media Center. According to the National Information Bureau, 11,129 children were illegally deported to the territory of the Russian Federation. Of them, 103 children were returned.

On November 15, 2022, the Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with 96 air and sea-based cruise missiles, according to the updated information from the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 75 cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kalibr), two Kh-59 guided air missiles, 10 Shahed-136/131, one Orion UAV and one Orlan-10 were shot down.

November 15 attack was the largest attack in the energy industry’s history, which affected all regions of Ukraine, reported Ukrenergo. The most challenging situation is in the west of Ukraine and the central and northeastern regions. Emergency shutdown schedules were used to stabilize the power system. This made it possible to prevent a complete blackout in the country. But the next few days will be difficult, the company says.

Emergency power outages continue in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Up to 300,000 households remain without electricity, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko, reported.

On November 15, Russian troops fired 13 cruise missiles over Lviv Oblast. Most of them were shot down, but the rest critically damaged three energy infrastructure facilities, leaving about 700,000 subscribers [households] without power, Maksym Kozytsky, head of Lviv Military Administration, reported. According to him, energy crews worked throughout the night, and as of now, electricity and water supply in the Lviv Oblast have been fully restored. Kozytsky noted that the man injured during the attack remains in a serious but stable condition in the hospital.

In Kyiv Oblast, emergency shutdowns are applied after a massive attack on the energy infrastructure. Throughout the night, electricians and all necessary services worked to eliminate the consequences of the shelling. Around 3:00 a.m., 20,000 subscribers [household] in the Bucha District were restored. About 34,000 more subscribers have recovered as of now. Work continues.

Two residential buildings in Kyiv were damaged during yesterday’s massive attack. An elderly woman died in one of them, said city mayor Vitaliy Klitschko.

Yesterday, an enemy missile killed a resident of Plesetske village in the Kyiv Oblast, National Police reported. During the air attack, a 69-year-old woman was at the cemetery, honoring the memory of her husband and died due to a fatal wound from the rocket fragments, the report said.

As a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation over the past day, November 15, 6 civilians were killed in Ukraine, 17 more were injured, reported Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, citing data from regional military administrations.

Liberated and occupied territories

Collaborator Dmitry Trukhin, who was in charge of the communal property of the so-called Military Administration, was blown up in occupied Melitopol. The explosion of a homemade bomb occurred when he was leaving the house. The collaborator was hospitalized with serious injuries.

Starting November 16, residents of Kherson will be able to access banking operations. The Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories informed that [two] branches of Oschadbank and PrivatBank are starting to work [in Kherson]. In the near future, other branches of these banks will also return to work.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation sent 210 Starlink terminals to the liberated Kherson to provide the local population with communication, announced Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov in Telegram. The minister added that another 60 Wi-Fi points with the Internet would be organized throughout the region in the next two weeks. Also, part of the terminals will be transferred to hospitals, police and emergency services.

During stabilization measures in liberated Kherson, SBU employees found classified FSB documents containing information about their agents-collaborators. It is noted that among the confiscated documents, there are agents’ handwritten “obligations” about confidential cooperation with the FSB; agents’ case studies; notification of agents about the results of their missions; “search protocols” in the residences of Kherson residents. The SBU reported that representatives of the Russian special service left secret documents on the territory of a local garage cooperative while fleeing from a counteroffensive of the Defense Forces.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 15) developments)

It is the 266th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy is trying to restrain the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, continues

to equip defensive lines on the left bank of the Dnipro river, and does not stop offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian troops have repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Kurdyumivka, Novokalynivka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Novomykhailivka, and Vremivka in Donetsk Oblast.

On November 15, the Russian Federation launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine’s military and civilian infrastructure. Residential buildings of citizens and objects of critical infrastructure in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Poltava, Lviv, Khmelnytskyi and other regions of Ukraine were affected. The enemy launched more than 90 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles and more than ten attack UAVs. According to detailed information, Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed 77 cruise missiles, 10 Shahed-136 attack drones and one Orion UAV.

On November 15, a rocket fell in the border village of Przewodow, Poland, 7.5 km from the state border with Ukraine, killing two citizens.

The enemy does not stop shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops and towns and villages along the contact line. Thus, during the past 24 hours, the Russian forces carried out 43 airstrikes and carried out more than 40 shelling from rocket launchers. Near the state border, the enemy shelled Krasnopillia, Ryzhivka, Kindrativka, and Slavgorod of Sumy Oblast, Vovchansk, Kam’yanka, Starytsia, Strilecha, Hlyboke, Ternova, Kozacha Lopan, and Hoptivka in Kharkiv Oblast.

The cases of desertion in enemy units increased, and the morale and psychological state deteriorated significantly in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in connection with significant losses during hostilities. Thus, after the battles in the area of Mayorsk, the 1st Horlivka Territorial Battalion lost its combat capability, with losses amounting to over 50 percent killed and wounded. Servicemen’s morale and psychological condition were deemed unsatisfactory, and the enemy command disbanded the mentioned unit. The remaining personnel are distributed among other military units.

During the past day, the Defense Forces’ aircraft launched 14 strikes against the enemy, hitting 11 areas of manpower, weapons and military equipment concentration, and 3 positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems.

Ukrainian missile forces and artillery over the past day struck 3 areas of concentration of enemy manpower, weapons and military equipment, the electronic warfare station and the enemy ammunition depot.

The press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Peskov, emphasized that Russia will still consider the liberated Kherson the capital of the Russian-occupied Kherson region.

Kharkiv direction

• Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMC

The enemy shelled the Defense Forces’ positions near Berestove, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Terny, Ploshanka, Kyslivka, Makiivka, Zarichne, Bilohorivka, and Spirne.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106 airborne division, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

Russian military shelled from tanks and artillery the areas of Soledar, Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Zelenopillia, Yakovlivka, New York, Opytne, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Nevelske, Novomykhailivka, Novokalynivka.

The high costs of the enemy attack on Pavlivka increased the criticism of the Russian military leadership, which is trying to blame the commander of the Pacific Fleet’s 40th separate marines brigade for the “deplorable results” because he “improperly” supported the 155th separate marines brigade.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37th of the 36th CA Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so- called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the Defence Forces’ positions in Bohoyavlenka, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Prechystivka, Zaliznychne, Shcherbaky, Temyrivka, Stepnohirsk, Biloghirya, Dorozhnianka, Malynivka, Olhivske, Novopil, Hulyaipole.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
• Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th CA Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd AC of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

The enemy fired at the positions of the Defense Forces near Illinka, Dudchany, Kachkarivka and Prydniprovske.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

The enemy has 8 surface ships and a submarine at sea. They are located along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them are three missile carriers with a total of 20 Kalibr missiles.

In the Sea of Azov, the enemy continues to control sea communications, keeping 1 ship and 2 boats on combat duty.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were deployed.

On November 15, a massive missile attack involved ships of the Russian Navy, which launched 20 Kalibr cruise missiles over Ukraine from the Sevastopol raid.

Grain initiative: Russia supports continuing the “grain agreement,” Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told the Russian mass media. He noted that the Russian delegation at the G20 summit declared that it was in favor of extending the “grain agreement” but on the condition that the grain goes to countries that need it and not to Western countries. The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, commenting on the “grain agreement”, said that Russia hinders the passage of ships due to lengthy inspections: 40 vessels were inspected without the Russian Federation and up to ten with it. Turkey, through whose mediation the “grain agreement” was concluded, wants to extend its duration for a year.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 16.11

Personnel – almost 82,710 people (+630);

Tanks – 2,871 (+10)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,797 (+24);

Artillery systems – 1,860 (+10);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 393 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 209 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,360 (+9); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,525 (+14); Intercepted cruise missiles – 474 (+75);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news:

On Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky held another meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief regarding the consequences of Russian missile strikes and the situation at the front, reported the President’s press service. “Participants analyzed information on the nature of damage caused by recent Russian missile strikes and considered the course of action to eliminate the consequences of these terrorist attacks. Strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure facilities and improving the effectiveness of the air defense of Ukraine were also discussed,” the message reads. According to the President’s Office, decisions were made in the context of further de-occupation of Ukrainian territories.

The Verkhovna Rada adopted laws on the approval of the decrees of the President of Ukraine regarding the extension of martial law and general mobilization for 90 days – until February 19, 2023.

On the initiative of the Minister of Energy Herman Galushchenko, an extraordinary meeting of the International Energy Advisory Council of high level was held, at which the issue of providing

Ukraine with additional energy equipment was considered. Representatives agreed to hold the next meeting on November 17 at the level of technical specialists. The High-Level International Energy Advisory Council under the Ministry of Energy was created to provide support and assistance to Ukrainian energy companies in overcoming the challenges and threats posed by the undisguised energy terrorism of the Russian Federation. It included representatives of the relevant ministries of Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Great Britain, and the USA, as well as the Secretariat of the Energy Community and the International Energy Agency.

If scheduled power outages continue in November-December, the additional aggregate losses of the economy may amount to 1-2% of GDP, which may lead to a drop in the economy this year to 35%, Bohdan Danylyshyn, a member of the National Bank of Ukraine Council, wrote on his Facebook page.

At its meeting on Tuesday, the Cabinet of Ministers allocated 100 million hryvnias for liquidating the consequences of hostilities and the restoration of critical infrastructure of Kherson Oblast, reported by the press service of the Ministry of Economy.

Ukraine has suspended the pumping of oil from the Russian Federation through the Druzhba oil pipeline in the direction of Hungary due to a voltage drop. Such a statement was made by the Russian company Transneft.

International diplomatic aspect

With 96 cruise missiles, air-to-surface guided missiles, and drones, the Kremlin showed no interest in stopping its unjust and illegal war. As President Zelensky pointed out, Vladimir Putin responded with ten missiles per each of his peace plan points. Though most of the missiles and drones were intercepted, some 21 hit the targets, badly damaging the electricity supply to Kyiv and other major cities. So, the attack proved that terrorizing civilians was the only strategy remaining in Putin’s hands after failing on the battlefields.

However, history shows that the application of the doctrine of air terror and deliberate destruction of critical infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and administrative centers bring opposite results – national unity and determination to win the war. Bombings of London, the siege of Leningrad, and carpet bombings in Vietnam failed to achieve meaningful results. Russia’s actions are aimed at degrading Ukraine’s industrial potential for years to come. Yet, the infrastructure is being mended now, and the international community is committed to reconstructing it after the war.

“Following Russia’s bombardment against the Ukrainian energy system in the last hour, one of the power lines that ensures the transport of electricity for our country has been disconnected,” Moldova’s Infrastructure Minister said in a statement. “This has led to massive power outages across the country.” Besides indirect damage to the country, it’s not unusual for Russian missiles to overfly Moldovan territory and even fall onto it, as was the case on 31 October

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“We condemn the barbaric missile attacks that Russia perpetrated on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure on Tuesday. We discussed the explosion that took place in the eastern part of Poland near the border with Ukraine. We offer our full support for and assistance with Poland’s ongoing investigation,” reads the joint statement of NATO and G7 Leaders on the margins of the G20 Summit in Bali.

“There is no indication that this was an intentional attack on Poland,” Polish President said before an emergency meeting of the National Security Council. “Ukrainian forces, countering a massive Russian attack, launched their missiles yesterday to shoot down Russian missiles. There are many indications that one of these missiles fell on Polish territory without any intention on either side,” the Polish Prime Minister said.

However, the Ukrainian side believes that the situation isn’t that straight. “We call for a further study as detailed as possible of this incident together with our partners. We are ready to hand over to our partners the evidence of the Russian trace that we have,” the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council said. President Zelenskyy believes that neither it was not a Ukrainian missile nor it was not a Ukrainian strike. He says that only one case coincides with debris falling out of 25 strikes on Polish territory. According to the Ukrainian military, this missile exploded in the air on Ukrainian territory and couldn’t cause such a huge crater.

The US National Security Council’s spokesperson expressed his “full confidence in the Polish government’s investigation” and stated the absence of evidence that might “contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was most likely the result of a Ukrainian air defense missile.” Yet he confirmed that the US “continue to stay in close touch with the Ukrainians regarding any information they have to fill out the picture.” Whatever the final conclusions may be, he said that “it is clear that the party ultimately responsible for this tragic incident is Russia, which launched a barrage of missiles on Ukraine specifically intended to target civilian infrastructure.”

Whether there’s a Russian trace or not, Moscow has been testing the ground. Most importantly, Russians closely watched NATO’s resolve for possible retaliation and the path and pace of decision-making. It might not be the best time because leaders of major allied powers happened to be in one place, so there was no delay in their communications. The diplomatic side of the issue is reassuring.

It is to be seen whether there were military preparations beyond Poland and whether and how the European Interceptor Site was involved. Poland hosts US missile defense complex elements, including SM-3 Block IIA interceptors.

While Russia was hitting Ukrainian cities with the barrage of missiles, the CIA Director was in Kyiv. Though there wasn’t much information about the agenda, he was likely sharing his impression about the nuclear blackmail after meeting Russia’s chief spy in Ankara.

G20 came out with the Leader’s Declaration with pretty strong language on Russia. Unwilling to criticize Russia directly, leaders signed up under the UN General Assembly’s Resolution that “deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine.” The division between the two camps was shown in dividing opinions: “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy – constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks.” Russia and their friends agreed to be mentioned as “there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.”

President Joe Biden is asking Congress to provide more than $37 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine. Spain voiced its readiness to train as many as 2,400 Ukrainian soldiers annually in Toledo Military Academy facilities within the EU assistance initiative

Russia, relevant news

The United States has imposed sanctions against the Wagner PMC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the manufacturers and transporters of Shahed drones, and two individuals involved in supplying Iranian drones to Russia.

Russians massively buy property in Turkey. According to the National Institute of Statistics, citizens of the Russian Federation purchased 2,023 units of real estate, which is several times higher than the number of transactions with representatives of other countries. The most popular cities for the acquisition of real estate by foreigners are Antalya and Istanbul.

The American corporation Arconic, producing products from light metals, including aluminum, sold its business in Russia, reported Reuters. Arconic Corporation has reportedly sold its Russian divisions to Russian state-owned steel company VSMPO-AVISMA for $230 million.

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