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CDS Daily brief (18.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

Seven oblasts of Ukraine, in particular the recently liberated territories of Kherson oblast, including Kherson itself, were under Russian shelling during the past day.

Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of November 18

  • The night in Donetsk Oblast passed with isolated shelling on different parts of the front, but without civilian casualties. 2 houses were damaged in Vuhledar.
  • The Russians shelled the Zaporizhzhia district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They fired S-300 missiles at Zarichne village and damaged the village’s cultural center. The civil infrastructure of the Orihiv, Hulya Pole and Vasylivka districts came under fire. In Vilniansk, the bodies of 10 dead people, three of them are children, were found under the rubble of a house hit by a rocket, reported Zaporizhzhia Regional Prosecutor’s Office. (On the night of November 17, 2022, the Russian military launched three strikes with S- 300 missiles at Vilniansk. One of the missiles hit a two-story residential building)
  • In Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian military attacked the region’s critical infrastructure. Gas industry equipment was damaged in the Izyum district. 8 people (workers and policemen) were injured during the liquidation of the consequences. In addition, the Russians attacked Kupyansk, Chuguiv, Kharkiv, and Izyum districts. Mine danger remains in the Kharkiv region. An explosive device detonation injured a 60-year-old man in Kamyanka.
  • In Mykolayiv Oblast, the enemy yesterday attacked the Kutsurub community with MLRS. No damages or injuries were reported.
  • In Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, during the night, the Nikopol was shelled several times with MLRS. No victims were reported. Several high-rise and private buildings, farm buildings, a power line, a solar substation, and a garage cooperative were damaged in the city.

Russian troops are shelling the Nikopol district daily from the side of the temporarily captured Energodar. Because of this, 70% of the population left Nikopol, said Mykola Lukashuk, head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional council, at a briefing at the Ukraine-Ukrinform media center. He also reminded that Nikopol is a large industrial city with powerful enterprises that work even under shelling, and people receive wages.

In Kherson Oblast, the situation remains difficult. Russian military continued forced evacuation of the population and looting of property from the temporarily occupied territories of the Oblast. In particular, the invaders forcibly removed the residents of Novokyiivka. The central city hospital does not work in Nova Kakhovka. The soldiers of the Russian Federation stole and took all the medical equipment and ambulances in the direction of the temporarily occupied Crimea.

In Kherson, which was liberated from the Russian invaders, 30 points of distribution of humanitarian aid began to operate.

Ten sets of “Starlink” were received by the Kherson Regional Territorial Center for Emergency Medical Aid and Disaster Medicine, Yaroslav Yanushevich, head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, reported in Telegram. He added that two electric generators with a capacity of 15 kW were delivered to the Kherson Children’s Regional Clinical Hospital. The medical facility will be able to work stably even despite the temporary absence of electricity in the city.

In the Kherson Oblast, law enforcement officers recorded another Russian war crime, namely, the shooting of seven civilians, including a minor girl, the Prosecutor General’s Office reported. According to preliminary data, in April 2022, during the temporary capture of one of the villages of the Kherson Oblast, the Russian military shot seven people and then blew up the house with bodes inside.

In Ukraine, 30% of the territory is mined; in terms of scale, it is the size of two Austrias, the head of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, Serhiy Kruk, said on the air of the all-Ukrainian telethon. “The area and volumes of mining in the territory of Ukraine have increased 10 times compared to the pre-war period,” Kruk noted. According to him, the clearance of the liberated territories from explosive objects is actively underway in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. More than 8,000 square km are subject to demining. Of them, about 7,000 square km – the territory of the Kherson Oblast and up to 1.5 thousand square km – in Mykolaiv Oblast.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 17) developments)

It is the 268th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy is trying to restrain the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, continues to equip defensive lines on the left bank of the Dnipro river, conducts offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions, and constantly conducts aerial reconnaissance.

Over the past 24 hours, the Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka in Luhansk Oblast and Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Opytne, Pervomaiske, Vodyane and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast. The enemy does not stop shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops and towns and villages near the contact line.

During the past 24 hours, Ukrainian civil infrastructure objects were damaged by rocket attacks in Balakliya and Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast; Vilniansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast; Dnipro and Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Odesa. Near the state border, the enemy fired mortars and barrel artillery at the Defense Forces’ positions near Gremyach and Senkivka in Chernihiv Oblast; Gorky, Seredyna-Buda, Ukrayinske and Fotovyzh in Sumy Oblast; Hlyboke, Ohirtseve, Osynove, Starytsia and Khatne in Kharkiv Oblast.

During the past day, Russian troops carried out five airstrikes, and 25 cruise missile strikes on civil infrastructure facilities in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and

Mykolaiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defense destroyed four cruise missiles, five Shahed-136 drones and two Kh-59 guided missiles. On November 15, Russian forces launched the largest missile attack since the beginning of the war, and such missile campaigns are consuming already depleted reserves of high-precision munitions of the Russian Federation. There is still a threat of the enemy launching missile and air strikes from the territory and airspace of the Republic of Belarus.

In the Belgorod region, PMC “Wagner” has begun actively recruiting workers from industrial enterprises. Thus, according to the agreement with the management of the Oskol electrometallurgical plant, workers of draft age will be involved in military training at the base of the “Wagner” PMC for 30 days with retention of wages. Training is planned to be held in batches of 25% of employees from the plant’s specified category. Participants will be asked to sign a contract with a private military company upon completion.

In connection with the significant losses of personnel and the insufficient number of medical personnel in the enemy units on the territory of Ukraine, employees of medical institutions in the temporarily occupied territories of the Luhansk Oblast, by order of the so-called Ministry of Health, were obliged to register for military service for further additional staffing of vacant positions.

During the past day, Ukrainian missile forces and artillery hit 4 enemy control points, 22 areas of manpower, weapons and military equipment concentration, 6 ammunition warehouses and 4 other important military targets.

During the previous week, Russian troops recruited about 650 prisoners from Russian correctional facilities and sent them to the Rostov region for training.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 2nd and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, 3rd and 14th separate SOF brigades, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMC

The enemy shelled the Defense Forces’ positions near Berestove, Kyslivka, Krokhmalne, Pishchane and Tabaivka in Kharkiv Oblast; Grekivka, Makiivka, Nevske and Stelmakhivka in Luhansk Oblast and Kolodyaz in Donetsk Oblast.

On November 17, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their counteroffensive in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna. Russian air and artillery strikes prevented Ukrainian troops from advancing in the direction of Novoselivske and Kolomiychykha, and near Makiivka, Ploshanka, Chervononopivka, and Dibrova.

Defense forces repulsed Russian attacks near Stelmakhivka and Bilohorivka, attempted to attack Russian defenses near Svatove and conducted offensive operations near Kuzemivka. They struck with HIMARS missiles [Russian positions] in the areas of Myrne, Zymohirya, Starobilsk, Svatove, Biloukrainske, and Kadiivka in Luhansk Oblast. Fighting continues in Bilohorivka.

Russian occupation troops are intensifying filtering measures in Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast and in Kakhovka district of Kherson Oblast. The General Staff of Ukraine also reported that Russian troops had imposed restrictions on movement in Rubizhne from the directions of Kreminna and Varvarivka of Luhansk Oblast.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 137th parachute airborne regiment of the 106 airborne division, 31st separate airborne assault brigade, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 24th separate SOF brigade, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled from tanks and artillery the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Klyshchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Opytne, Mayorsk, New York, Soledar, Spirne, Yakovlivka, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske.

On November 17, Russian troops continued their offensive in the Donetsk Oblast. The most difficult situation is in the east of Ukraine, where Russian troops are trying to cross the administrative border of the Donetsk region. Over 500 combat clashes took place between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the last week alone.

The enemy continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, but was repulsed in the areas of Verkhnyokamyanske, Soledar, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Pervomaiske. Enemy units also attacked Vesele, Bilhorivka, and Avdiivka to cut the road in the Soledar area. They also cleared the northern outskirts of Opytne and the eastern part of Vodyane. “Wagner” PMC detachments maintain control over Vesela Dolyna, Oradivka, the western outskirts of Opytne and the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut. Enemy units completely control the road between Pavlivka and Mykilske.

Russian troops transferred 400 servicemen from rapid reaction units of the Russian Guard to Mariupol.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 37th of the 36th CA Army, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so- called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy shelled the Defense Forces’ positions in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Vremivka, and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, Zaliznychne, Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Defense Forces, with artillery strikes, destroyed the Russian headquarters in Melitopol and other [enemy] targets in the rear areas of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC) of the Southern Military District; 35th and 36th CA Armies of the Eastern Military District; 3rd AC of the Western Military District; 90th tank division of the Central Military District; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and 76th Air assault divisions, the 98th airborne division, and the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Airborne Forces.

Enemy shelled with artillery Antonivka, Odradokamyanka and Chornobayivka in Kherson Oblast.

On November 17, Russian troops defended themselves on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast. They built additional defensive positions in Chkalov, tried to maintain safe supply lines on the eastern bank, and retreated further to the rear. Ukraine’s control of the west bank of the Dnipro allows Ukrainian forces to control territory near the occupied Crimean Peninsula and fire at maximum range Russian positions on the east bank.

Ukrainian defense forces continued shelling Russian military targets and concentration areas on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and, in particular, Chaplynka, Kalanchak, and the administrative building in Nova Kakhovka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

The enemy has 7 surface ships and a submarine at sea. Due to stormy conditions, part of the ships returned to their base points. At sea, ships patrol along the southwestern coast of Crimea. Among them is one submarine with 4 Kalibr missiles. Two ships were spotted on the western coast of Crimea, near the Black Sea port (judging by the length and exterior, they may be missile corvettes). So far, no movement of ships towards the Kherson Oblast or the Kinburn Spit has been observed.

In the Sea of Azov, the enemy continues to control sea communications, keeping 1 boat on combat duty.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 16 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saky airfields were deployed.

Russian sources report the explosion of a marine drone in the port of Novorossiysk at 04:00 on November 18. According to their estimates, the damage is insignificant. The drone was classified as similar to the one used in Sevastopol on October 29.

Grain initiative: President Zelensky said that the grain export initiative, which was extended for 120 days today, demonstrated Ukraine’s importance to the world. This is a very specific thing – what makes the world see the importance of Ukraine. Since August 1, more than 450 ships have already left the ports of Great Odesa. The total amount of food is 11 million tons. The geography is very wide: Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Yemen, Lebanon, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, as well as the countries of the European Union,” Zelensky said.

The President emphasized that tens of millions of people, primarily in African countries, have been saved from hunger, particularly by supplies within the UN Food Program framework from our ports. “We did everything to expand this work. And I thank all our partners who are helping: the UN and Secretary General Guterres personally, Turkey and President Erdogan personally. Thank you to everyone in our team who is responsible for this direction. The result is really important.” – concluded Zelensky.

Ukraine has officially turned to international partners with a proposal to include the port of Mykolaiv in the “grain agreement”, which will make it possible to increase the export of agricultural products significantly. The head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Agrarian and Land Policy, Oleksandr Haydu, announced this. “Before the full-scale war, a third of the agricultural products destined for export were shipped through the ports of Mykolayiv. In the current conditions, this can be an additional 2-2.5 million tons of export of agricultural products per month. Therefore, the involvement of the Mykolayiv ports in the grain initiative is appropriate, important and extremely necessary for the city, its residents and farmers,” said Haydu. Currently, Ukraine exports grain from the ports of Great Odesa: Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 18.11

Personnel – almost 83,460 people (+350);

Tanks – 2,879 (+1)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,808 (+4);

Artillery systems – 1,865 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 393 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 209 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,366 (+4); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,536 (+5); Intercepted cruise missiles – 480 (+6);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news:

As a result of the Russian attack on critical infrastructure, almost half of Ukraine’s energy system has been disabled, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

International partners have approved programs to help the Ukrainian energy system worth more than 200 million euros. Part of the necessary equipment is already on its way to Ukraine, said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, during the briefing “The current situation with electricity in Ukraine” held at the Ukraine – Ukrinform Media Center.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, 21,876 companies have been registered in Ukraine, and 28% of newly registered businesses have female directors. During the war, women opened 84,916 new private enterprises — that’s almost half (48%) of all new businesses, according to Opendatabot, a platform for working with open data.

“Ukrzaliznytsia” railroad company resumes regular passenger rail service with Kherson. The first train will leave Kyiv today, November 18.

International diplomatic aspect

Among the intercepted missiles from the Russian attack on Kyiv on 17 November, there was a missile (Kh-55) with a dismantled nuclear warhead, according to Defense Express. Either Russia is running out of guided missiles of other types (Kh-555) and therefore employs what had left, or Moscow decided to test a missile that might carry a nuclear warhead.

The International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors adopted a resolution refuting Russia’s bizarre allegation against Ukraine of making a “dirty bomb” and demanded to retreat from the illegally seized nuclear power plant. “The Agency has found no indications of undeclared nuclear activities or materials related to the development of radiological dispersal devices (“dirty bombs”),” the Resolution reads. “Unfortunately, Russia has a long track record of making such baseless allegations in order to distract or disguise from its own negative actions,” stated Corinne Kitsell, UK Ambassador. The Resolution “Calls upon the Russian Federation to immediately withdraw its military and other personnel from the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, in order for the competent Ukrainian authorities to regain full control of the plant to ensure its safe and secure operation, and in order for the Agency to fully and safely conduct its safeguards verification activities, in accordance with Ukraine’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement, entered into pursuant to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Statute, and the Additional Protocol thereto.” Russia and China voted against the Resolution.

However, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybkov continues to push absurdist claims that Ukraine may “create” a “dirty bomb” in the future. “These three objects [IAEA inspected nuclear facilities in Ukraine] are by no means all that the Kyiv regime has in this area. And when we take into account what kind of sponsors this regime has and what these sponsors are capable of, as the events of recent months show, then there are probably no grounds to be satisfied with what the IAEA has collected and prepared,” claimed the Russian.

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