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CDS Daily brief (24.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

The toll of yesterday’s massive missile attack on Ukraine increased to 10 dead and 55 injured, said the press officer of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, Oleksandr Horunzhy. A total of 36 objects were damaged. Among them are energy facilities and private and multi-apartment residential buildings in 8 Ukrainian Oblasts and the city of Kyiv.

Ukrenergo informed that as of 7 pm, about 50% of consumption needs in the country were provided with electricity. A large part of TPPs and HPPs are already operating, and all nuclear plants are gradually gaining capacity, except for the occupied ZNPP. However, it is impossible to predict the terms of complete recovery.

In Kyiv, 70% of households remain in emergency power outage mode. The water supply has been restored. However, problems with water pressure in the network are still recorded in some places. The electricity for household consumers will be turned on for 2-3 hours until the amount of electricity coming to the capital increases, said DTEK director Dmytro Sakharuk. Public transport works – both underground and surface. Instead of trams, buses entered their routes.

More than 70% of critical infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has recovered. And electricity was returned to 20% of the houses, said the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko.

In Chernihiv Oblast, a strict power-saving regime is being introduced – the light will be on for three hours and off for six hours.

Almost 4,000 “Points of Invincibility” are operating in Ukraine as of 9:00 a.m. People can warm up, recharge mobile phones, and access the Internet and information about what is happening in the country and the world.

Today, another 50 Ukrainian defenders were returned from Russian captivity. Among them are 19 defenders of Mariupol, 15 POWs captured at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant and 7 from Zmiiny Island, announced the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak. Among those released from captivity are two officers and 48 privates and NCOs.

Liberated territories:

Before the afternoon on November 24, the Russians shelled recently liberated Kherson 17 times. Around 17:00, Russians again shelled the city’s residential districts from artillery and MLRS. As a result of the shelling, a high-rise building caught fire; projectiles also hit the children’s playground. Four people died, and 10 were injured, reported Kherson Military Administration.

In the liberated territories of Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, 50 locations of probable burials were inspected, and the bodies of about 200 victims were identified, the Ministry of

Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine reported. Also, search operations, exhumation and identification of bodies in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts continue.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 23) developments)

It is the 274th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). Over the past day, the Defense Forces units have repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Ozaryanivka, Opytne, and Yakovlivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Over the past day, the enemy launched 78 missile strikes and 23 air strikes, and fired more than 70 MLRS rounds at the positions of Ukrainian troops and Ukrainian towns and villages. During the massive attack on residential buildings and energy infrastructure in Kyiv, and Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Lviv, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, the Russian aggressor launched 67 cruise missiles and up to 10 Lancet attack UAVs. The Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down 51 missiles and 5 UAVs. In addition, the enemy shelled the areas of Hai and Khrinivka in Chernihiv Oblast; Basivka, Seredyna Buda and Yasna Polyana in Sumy Oblast. In the border areas of the Belgorod region, the enemy is holding units to conduct forward presence actions, periodically shelling the positions of the Defense Forces with mortars and barrel artillery in the areas of Bolohivka, Veterynarne, Hlyboke, Dvorichne, Izbytske, Krasne, Kudiivka, Ohirtseve, and Strilecha of Kharkiv Oblast.

During the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Defense Forces aircraft struck 6 areas of the enemy’s personnel, weapons and military equipment concentration and 2 anti-aircraft missile systems.

Ukrainian missile forces and artillery hit 4 areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment, an air defense position and another important military target.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 76th Air assault division, 106th airborne division, 2nd, 3rd, 14th, 24th and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMCs.

The enemy is on defense, cynically firing from tanks, mortars and barrel artillery Berestove, Vilshana, Vyshneve, Kyslivka, Krokhmalne, Tabaivka of Kharkiv Oblast; Makiivka, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka and Ploschanka in Luhansk Oblast and Terny, Torske and Yampolivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 31st separate airborne assault brigades, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy is concentrating its efforts on offensive actions. Russian troops shelled from tanks and the entire spectrum of artillery the areas of Avdiivka, Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Berkhivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Vodyane, Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Rozdolivka and Yakovlivka.

The Russian occupation authorities instructed the medical staff of Horlivka hospitals to seize the documents of the dead mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC, not to conduct a forensic examination of the bodies, and to pack them in sanitary bags for transportation; the destination is currently unknown.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy is on the defensive, shelling the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Vuhledar, Novopil, Prechystivka and Shakhtarske in Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole, Zeleny Hai, Dorozhnianka, Orihiv, Poltavka, Stepnohirsk, Temyrivka and Chervone in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC); 35th and 36th CA Armies; 3rd AC; 90th tank division; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and the 98th airborne division, and the 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigades of the Airborne Forces, 10th separate SOF brigade.

The enemy does not stop artillery shelling of the positions of Ukrainian troops and towns and villages on the right bank of the Dnipro River. Russian troops shelled with barrel and rocket artillery Antonivka, Beryslav, Veletenski, Bilozerka, Dniprovske, Dudchany, Kachkarivka, Novooleksandrivka, Ponyativka, Stanislav, Tokarivka, Shyroka Balka of Kherson Oblast and the city of Kherson. Russian troops are conducting positional defense. They are improving the logistical support of advanced units and enhancing the fortification equipment of the positions in the specified directions.

Work on manufacturing reinforced concrete structures is actively underway in the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Finished products are exported to the city of Armyansk.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

There are no changes in enemy forces at sea. The enemy holds there 8 surface ships and a submarine. Due to stormy conditions, the ships are patrolling near the southwestern coast of Crimea. The submarine carries 4 Kalibr missiles.

In the Sea of Azov, the enemy continues to control sea communications, keeping 2 boats on combat duty.

On the evening of November 23, several drones flew over Yevpatoria in [occupied Crimea]. The Russian Federation used air defense systems and small arms [on them].

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 20 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 24.11

Personnel – almost 85,720 people (+310);

Tanks – 2,898 (+1)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,839 (+7);

Artillery systems – 1,889 (+2);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 395 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 209 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,400 (+4); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,547 (+10); Intercepted cruise missiles – 531 (+51);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

About 60% of Ukrainian citizens remained in their homes despite the war, according to a study conducted by the research company Gradus Research, reports Ukrinform. The rest were forced to leave at the beginning of hostilities, but half of them had already returned home. Sociologists indicate that the respondents consider the option of evacuation as a critical and difficult step that they will be ready to take as a last resort. Today, most respondents who live at home are not ready to leave.

Another study by the same research company indicates that 65% of Ukrainians will remain in their current residence in the event of a power outage in the cold season. 14% of respondents, according to the survey, intend to move to other regions of Ukraine or abroad, and 20% are undecided.

Losses of Ukrainian media companies due to the war amount to at least UAH 463 million: more than 80 companies partially lost their equipment and another 20 – completely. International partners are involved in restoring national broadcasting, particularly in Kherson, announced the head of the National Council for Television and Radio Broadcasting, Olga Gerasimyuk. She noted that several television towers were destroyed in Ukraine, particularly in Kyiv, Rivne, and Vinnytsia. At the same time, towers were levelled in Sumy Oblast and Luhansk Oblast and completely destroyed in Kherson.

International diplomatic aspect

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “there have been no strikes on ‘social’ targets, and there are none – special attention is paid to this.” But, in contradiction to his own words, he also said that to put an end to “all possible suffering among the population,” Ukrainian leadership

needs to “bring the situation back to normal, has every opportunity to resolve the situation in such a way as to fulfill the requirements of the Russian side.”

In the meantime, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN at the organization’s Security Council meeting dedicated to Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure said a different thing: “We are hitting infrastructure in Ukraine in response to West’s pumping of weapons and Kyiv’s reckless calls for a military victory over Russia.” Russia’s justification for war and particular actions has a fluctuating nature. But this one is particularly important because it’s a clear confession of a war crime.

“Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;” “Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects…” or “attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives” are defined as elements of war crimes by international humanitarian law.

Germany offered Poland Patriot missile defense systems to strengthen its protection. “After further Russian missile attacks, I asked Germany to have the Patriot batteries offered to Poland transferred to Ukraine and deployed at its western border,” Poland’s Defence Minister twitted. “This will protect Ukraine from further deaths and blackouts and will increase security at our eastern border,” he said.

The US will provide Ukraine with another package of security assistance worth $400, bringing the total assistance under the Biden Administration to $19.7 billion. The package includes an undisclosed amount of rounds for NASAMS air defense systems and the HIMARS artillery systems, 150 heavy machine guns with thermal sights to shoot down drones, 10,000 120mm mortar rounds, 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition, and 200 power generators.

The European Parliament approved an €18 billion loan for Ukraine, covering roughly half the estimated €3-4 billion monthly funding Ukraine needs in 2023. The funds will be spent on supporting essential public services (healthcare facilities, schools, housing for IDPs), macroeconomic stability, and restoring critical infrastructure destroyed by Russia’s actions.

Kyiv City Council voted to recognize former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as an honorary citizen of Kyiv. It recalls Sir Winston Churchill, who was declared an honorary citizen of the United States in 1963. Boris Johnson is adored in Ukraine more than he is criticized back home in the UK. He championed European support for Ukraine before the all-out invasion and showed personal courage by visiting Kyiv while it was still dangerous.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 and are involved in security studies, defence policy research and advocacy. Currently all our activity is focused on stopping the ongoing war.

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