CDS Daily brief (26.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of 11:00 a.m., one more nuclear unit has been put into operation, and the capacity of the others is increasing to the planned level. Thus, electricity producers meet about 75% of [Ukraine’s] consumption needs. However, another 25% of electricity is still in short supply, so today, the consumption restriction regime is in effect throughout Ukraine, Ukrenergo’s press service reported.

Electricity supply was restored in Kherson, Deputy head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said. He stressed that the power supply would first go to the city’s critical infrastructure and then immediately to household consumers.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation said that after the large-scale blackout in Ukraine, 73% of the mobile network is already working. People experience the greatest difficulties with communication in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

Over the past day, November 25, two civilians were killed, and another 15 were injured in Ukraine as a result of Russian armed aggression, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported with reference to data from regional military administrations.

The mayor of Dnipro, Boris Filatov, reported that a Russian rocket hit the city around noon on November 26. In total, 7 private houses were affected. 13 injured civilians are reported; four are in the hospital, including a 17-year-old boy. A woman is in critical condition. Search and rescue continue; a person could be under the rubble.

On November 26, Russian aircraft struck Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, destroying the part of a 5-story building and injuring three civilians, Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of Donetsk OMA said.

During the day on November 26, Russian troops shelled Kherson five times, killing one person, the head of the Kherson City Military Administration, Galina Lugova, reported.

In the morning, the Russian Armed Forces shelled Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast, with mortars damaging private houses. Three civilians were injured, the press service of the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office reported,

As of 9 a.m. on November 26, heads of respective Oblast Military State Administrations reported shelling 7 Ukrainian Oblasts in the past day. Two oblasts, Kharkiv and Donetsk, reported one injured person from the shelling. The rest reported hits on civilian infrastructure. The situation in Kherson is difficult due to constant shelling. Hospital and a mental health hospital had to be evacuated from the city.

On November 26, another exchange of POWs took place. Ukraine freed 12 people, the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, said. Among them are 4 Navy, two National Guardsmen, border guards, and one Territorial Defense personnel, as well as three civilians – a couple and a man who was considered missing. According to Yermak, a total of 98 Ukrainians were released last week.

During the past day, the evacuation of the civilian population from the temporarily occupied territory was carried out. Seventy-seven people, including 17 children, were evacuated, the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reported.

Occupied territories:

In Mariupol, on November 24, a white car exploded at Gromova 63 near the occupation administration, killing a newly arrived Russian military official. Two more Russians were injured, Mariupol resistance reported on its Telegram channel.

A record drop in prices in the real estate market in the annexed Crimea is recorded. Tens of thousands of real estate are put up for sale. Local realtors say that owners are ready to bargain and can give up from 20 to 50% of the cost. Market specialists explained this as a reaction to “instability” – explosions at Russian military facilities in the Crimea, the Kerch bridge and hostilities in the neighboring Kherson region, Krym Realii, a Radio Liberty project reports.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 25) developments)

It is the 276th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The Russian military continues the armed aggression against Ukraine. It does not stop attacks on civilian targets and focuses its efforts on restraining the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The Russian troops continue regrouping to strengthen the groupings in the Lyman, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka and Nevelske in Donetsk Oblast. Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 11 missile strikes and 6 air strikes and fired over 50 MLRS rounds. Kupyansk and Chuhuiv of Kharkiv Oblast; Bilenke in Donetsk Oblast; and Komyshuvakha and Kushugum in Zaporizhzhia Oblast were hit by rockets. In addition, the Russian military fired artillery at the areas around Kozacha Lopan, Strilecha, Lyptsi, Starytsya, Ohirtseve and Dvorichna in Kharkiv Oblast.

The issue of logistical support for mobilized Russian servicemen remains unresolved. For example, in the Kostroma Oblast, the population is urged through social networks to make camouflage nets and bring warm clothes, sleeping mats, sleeping bags, and other things the

military personnel need in the field. At the same time, despite the propaganda measures, there is an inevitable decline in the material support of the Russian troops from the civilian population.

The Russian military-political leadership began to receive reports on the state of affairs with mobilization and fulfilling the plan for the autumn military draft. It is known that the military commissariats of Kaliningrad Oblast no longer get the planned number of recruits for the fall conscription due to the evasion of conscripts.

During the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces dealt 14 strikes on areas of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment concentration and 4 strikes on the positions of the Russian anti-aircraft missile systems.

Missile and artillery forces units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces hit one enemy command and control point, 5 areas of personnel, weapons and military equipment concentration, and 2 other important military targets.

Kharkiv direction

• Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 76th Air assault division, 106th airborne division, 2nd, 3rd, 14th, 24th and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMCs.

The Russian forces conduct an active defense, shelling the areas of Kupyansk, Berestove, Kyselivka and Tabaivka of Kharkiv Oblast, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka and Ploshanka in Luhansk Oblast and Yampolivka and Torske in Donetsk Oblast with tanks and barrel artillery.

Significant losses in enemy units operating in Luhansk Oblast are noted. In general, the number of civilian hospitals used by the occupying forces to treat only Russian military personnel increased in the temporarily occupied territory of the region. Medical services are becoming less accessible for the civilian population of the region. The hospitals of Krasny Luch, Antratsyt and Lutugyne are full of wounded Russian soldiers, and the morgues are filled with the bodies of dead invaders.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;

• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 31st separate airborne assault brigades, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiments of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military is concentrating its primary efforts on offensive actions. Shelling was recorded in the areas of Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Krasnohorivka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Nevelske and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military is on the defensive. It fired tanks and artillery at the areas around Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Neskuchne, Vremivka, Novopil, Zelene Pole of Donetsk Oblast and Olhivske, Hulyaipole, Hulyaipilske and Charivne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

In the city of Melitopol, a Russian ammunition depot was destroyed, and about 50 enemy personnel sustained injuries of various degrees of severity. Two enemy warehouses were destroyed in the Vasylivka district. Up to 130 Russian occupiers were wounded, and 7 pieces of military equipment of various types were destroyed.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
• Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC); 35th and 36th CA Armies; 3rd AC; 90th tank division; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and the 98th airborne division, and the 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigades of the Airborne Forces, 10th separate SOF brigade.

The Russian military fortifies its positions along the river bank and in the depth of the defense, improves the logistical support of its advanced units, and continuously shells the positions of the

Ukrainian troops and residential areas on the right bank of the Dnipro River with artillery. The cities of Ochakiv and Kherson were specifically affected by enemy fire.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

There is no change related to the enemy forces at sea. The Russian fleet keeps 9 surface ships at sea. Among them are no Kalibr missile carriers.

In the Sea of Azov, the Russian military continues to control sea communications, keeping 2 boats on combat duty.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 20 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

“The Grain initiative”. Ukraine is launching the “Grain from Ukraine” initiative on the day of remembrance of the Holodomor (1932-33 Famine) victims. Up to 60 ships with Ukrainian grain will be sent to the poorest African countries as part of the initiative, President Volodymyr Zelensky told the “Europeiska Pravda” publication in a statement. Last week, Russia agreed to extend the so-called “grain agreement” for another 120 days. Since the entry of the agreement that unblocked the Black Sea into force, a total of 11 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products have reached 38 countries. However, some of the poorest countries have been forced out of the market by high grain prices. The essence of the program named “Grain from Ukraine” is that the countries participating in the project buy agricultural products from Ukrainian producers – priority is given to small and medium-sized enterprises – and transfer them to countries on the verge of starvation. According to the initiative, up to 60 ships with Ukrainian grain can be sent to the poorest countries in Africa by next year. The initiative challenges the Russian narrative that the Western response to Putin’s war against Ukraine has exacerbated existing food shortages in Africa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 26.11

Personnel – almost 86,710 people (+560);

Tanks 2,901 (+2)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,848 (+4);

Artillery systems – 1,896 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 395 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 209 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,406 (+2); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,554 (+1); Intercepted cruise missiles – 531 (0);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

According to the Main intelligence directorate of the Ukrainian MOD, it conducted a space radar reconnaissance of about 150 Russian dislocations. This became possible thanks to cooperation with the Serhiy Prytula Foundation, which put the crowdfunded ICEYE satellite and contractual access to the database of the SAR satellite constellation at the disposal of Ukrainian intelligence officers. The “people’s satellite” allowed to detect and confirm about 2.6 thousand pieces of Russian military equipment. The satellite also helped to detect pontoon crossings, boats and enemy tents.

International diplomatic aspect

“90 years since the Holodomor genocide. Soviet Russia starved millions of Ukrainians to death. Today Russia is waging a genocidal war against Ukraine. History matters. If people’s eyes are shut to past atrocities, there are no limits to committing new ones in the future.” Estonia’s Prime Minister nails it. Moscow’s impunity for numerous and the most terrific crimes pawed the way for a new genocide.

Holodomor genocide is mainly attributed to the events of 1932-33, but there were several artificial famines before and after (in 1921-22 and 1946-47). Here it is just a couple of lines from Vladimir Lenin’s instructions to his fellow Bolsheviks: “Stocks of grain in Ukraine are huge. There is no way to take it all at once.” (1919)

“Now the main question of the entire Soviet government, a matter of life and death for us, is to collect 200-300 million poods [1 pood = 16,3 kg] from the Ukraine. For this, the main thing is salt. To take everything away, to surround all the places of extraction with a triple cordon of troops, not to miss a pound, not to let it be stolen.” (1921)

“The Politburo points out to the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine that the complete collection of food in Ukraine, that is, 100%, is of absolutely fundamental importance for the RSFSR (Soviet Russia).” (1921)

While millions were being starved to death (the death toll of Holodomor of 1932-33 might be as high as 6 million people), the Bolsheviks were covering up their crimes. The outside world refused to listen to the handful of courageous voices, such as British journalist Gareth Jones who

attempted to shed light on the apocalyptic reality of the famine. Instead of being celebrated for his revelations, Jones was shamefully attacked by his fellow international correspondents. The loudest voice was that of Walter Duranty, the Moscow bureau chief of the New York Times. The Soviet Union didn’t admit the crime it committed. Neither did the Russian Federation.

Ninety years on, two-thirds of Russians favor Joseph Stalin, while only eleven percent have a negative view (2021 Levada Centre’s poll). More than half of Russians (56%) have a favorable view of Vladimir Lenin, contrary to one-fifth that don’t (2022 VCIOM’s poll). These two leaders of the Bolshevik regime are responsible for atrocities of an intangible scale. Seventy-two percent of Russians support their war in Ukraine (a 9% decrease from March), according to Levada Centre’s poll, while seventy-nine percent support President Putin’s overall course of action, contrary to nineteen percent who oppose it.

Meanwhile, Yuri Dmitriev, [Russian citeezn] in custody for five years, will spend ten days in a punishment cell for the alleged absence of a name tag on his prisoner’s uniform. He was sentenced to thirteen years of colony primarily due to his activities as the chief of the Karelia branch of the “Memorial” human rights organization. His chapter focused on the exhumation, identification, and rehabilitation of victims of Bolshevik terror in the region that had been packed with concentration camps. The various legal entities of “Memorial” were banned, and the organization was recognized as a foreign agent [in Russia]. Memorial “creates a false image of the USSR as a terrorist state, whitewashes and rehabilitates Nazi criminals,” was an argument of the state prosecutor during the debate between the parties at the Supreme Court.

In Russian Federation, a country headed by the former KGB clique, victims are once again “guilty,” and history is revised, while executioners are again part and parcel of the Russian state. The lists of criminals that had served in the Soviet Secret police and were involved in mass murders, torturers, and forged allegations are not publicly available anymore due to the protection of their “personal data.”

“Life is more difficult and diverse than shown on TV screens or the Internet. There are many fakes, cheating, lies there”, Vladimir Putin said to a gathering of women. However, it was a staged meeting of the national “leader” with “soldier’s mothers.” Valentina Melnikova, a human rights defender since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, who represents the Union of Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers, was not invited to the meeting. Neither was invited Olga Tsukanova of the Council of Mothers and Wives, a movement formed by relatives of mobilized soldiers, who fiercely tried to get to the meeting. Moreover, independent journalists revealed the names of several “mothers” who turned out to be functionaries of the Russian government and diehard supporters of Putin.

Agreeing that losing a son is a “huge tragedy,” Putin went on into cannibal philosophy: “But you know what comes to my mind: we have about 30 thousand people who die in road accidents, about the same number from alcohol. It happens, unfortunately.” “We are all mortals, we are all under the Lord, and someday we will all leave this world. It’s unavoidable. The question is how we lived,” elaborated Putin. He concluded on a positive note by saying that some live

incomprehensibly and leave because of alcohol abuse or other reasons. But “your son lived”. And his goal has been achieved. This means that he did not leave life in vain.

Russia, relevant news

The Russian Presidential Administration is drafting a presidential decree prohibiting Russian companies and traders who buy Russian oil from selling it to countries and companies that introduce a price cap, Bloomberg reported with reference to a source.

Since the beginning of the year, the Russian Federation has sold $8 billion worth of weapons abroad, President Vladimir Putin said at an event dedicated to the 15th anniversary of Rostec. In 2021, arms exports amounted to $14.6 billion.

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