CDS Daily brief (27.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

According to the Prosecutor General’s Office, to date, as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation, 440 Ukrainian children were killed, and 851 children were injured.

2,719 educational institutions were damaged due to bombing and shelling by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. 332 of them were completely destroyed.

On the morning of November 27th, the Russian military fired two rockets at a transport infrastructure facility in Kryvyi Rih.

Today, the Russians shelled Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast. The projectile fell on a children’s playground in a residential area. According to preliminary data, two people died, and one more was injured. Four houses were damaged.

During the last day, the Russian military shelled the territory of the Kherson Oblast 54 times. One person was killed, two more were injured, including a child, reported the head of Kherson Military Administration, Yaroslav Yanushevych. The residential quarters of Kherson were under fire. Enemy shells hit private homes, a garage cooperative, and an educational institution.

As a result of yesterday’s Russian shelling of Dnipro, one person died, the body was recovered from the rubble of the warehouses destroyed by the missile. A total of 13 people were injured. Three of them remain in hospital, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko, reported.

The Kyiv military administration reported that electricity, water supply, heat, and communications had been almost completely restored in the capital.

Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Denys Monastyrskyi, reported that the number of crimes or cases of looting have not increased during the power outages. However, the number of reports of domestic violence has increased.

Occupied territories:

The Russians cover up the deportation of children from Luhansk Oblast with the need to provide them with special medical care. The Luhansk Regional Military Administration reported this on Telegram. “Thousands of children between the ages of 2 and 17 have already undergone in-depth medical examinations. Doctors brought from Russia noted in the examination documents that 70% of these children need special medical care. With this conclusion, the Russians cover up the deportation of children to the territory of the Russian Federation,” – the message says.

In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, the Russians began demolishing houses in the city’s historic centre to hide the effects of their bombing, Mariupol mayor’s advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported in his Telegram. He added that now Mariupol has been transformed into a city that Mariupol residents cannot recognize from photos and videos.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 26) developments)

It is the 277th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The enemy continues regrouping troops to strengthen their groupings in the Lyman, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka areas.

Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces units have repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Stelmakhivka in Luhansk Oblast and Bilohorivka, Mari’nka, Verkhnyokamianske and Spirne in Donetsk Oblast. The enemy launched 2 missile strikes on civilian objects in the city of Dnipro and fired 38 MLRS rounds at the positions of Ukrainian troops and civilian objects, particularly the city of Kherson.

In the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions (Russia), enemy units are carrying out the task of covering the section of the Russian-Ukrainian border and conducting forward presence and provocative actions.

The enemy fired tanks, mortars and barrel artillery at the areas of Strilecha, Krasne, Chuhunivka, Izbytske, Ohirtseve, Bochkove, Budarka and Ambarne of Kharkiv Oblast.

Operations on both sides are currently hampered by heavy rain and, as a result, heavy mud. Temperatures are forecast to drop across Ukraine over the next week, likely freezing the ground and accelerating the pace of fighting as mobility increases for both sides.

The UK Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian Armed Forces are dismantling nuclear warheads from Kh-55 air-launched cruise missiles and will use them in a non-nuclear version on targets in Ukraine as trap targets designed to expose and overload the air defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Since mid-October, the Russian Armed Forces have widely used the non-nuclear variant of the Kh-55 missile, the Kh-555 missile, to strike critical Ukrainian infrastructure, which indicates the depletion of the arsenal of high-precision missiles.

In the Russian Federation and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, preparations are underway for another wave of covert mobilization for the ranks of the Armed Forces, starting December 10.

Over the past day, missile and artillery units of the Defense Forces hit two enemy command and control points, 11 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment and one other important military target.

Kharkiv direction

• Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 76th Air assault division, 106th airborne division, 2nd, 3rd, 14th, 24th and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMCs.

The enemy concentrates its primary efforts on conducting offensive actions. In the Lyman direction, it is on the defensive but fired from tanks and artillery at the areas of Berestove, Kupyansk, Kurylivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne of Kharkiv Oblast; Nevsky in Luhansk Oblast and Yampolivka and Torske in Donetsk Oblast. Near Stelmakhivka, the Russian troops used TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems.

The Russian troops continued their defense along the Svatove-Kreminna frontier, actively operated northwest of Svatove in the direction of Kupyansk and west of Kreminna in the direction of Lyman. They made insignificant advances in Novoselivske and repelled Ukrainian attacks on Kolomykhykha and Ploshanka.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces are advancing around Svatove and Kreminna, partly due to the low quality and incoherence of the mobilized Russian recruits operating in the area. Ukrainian units are constantly repulsing Russian attacks in the Bilohorivka area.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 31st separate airborne assault brigades, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiments of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy continues to focus its primary efforts on conducting offensive actions. They shelled the areas of Andriivka, Spirne, Berestovka, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast.

The Russian troops continued their offensive in the vicinity of Bakhmut; intense fighting continues on its southern outskirts. Enemy attacks in the direction of Novomykhailivka also continue.

Ukrainian Joint Forces repelled Russian attacks near Bakhmut, in the areas of Opytne, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Yakovlivka, southwest of Avdiivka in the area of Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka and Nevelske. They successfully repelled a Russian tank attack in the area of Novoselivka Druga.

The enemy units are conducting active defensive operations in the west of Donetsk Oblast and east of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy is on the defensive. It fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery at the positions of the Defense Forces and the areas of Novoukrayinka, Vuhledar, Vremivka, Novosilka and Novopil in Donetsk Oblast and Poltavka, Malynivka, Chervone, Zaliznychne, Dorozhnyanka, Novodanylivka and Plavni in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to strike the concentration of Russian troops and military equipment in the Russian rear areas in the south of Ukraine. In particular, they hit a Russian ammunition warehouse in Melitopol, as a result of which 50 Russian soldiers were wounded, and two warehouses in the Vasylivsky district, wounding 130 enemy personnel and destroying 7 pieces of equipment.

The Russian troops continued to launch artillery and rocket attacks west of Hulyaipole and shell the cities of Dnipro, Nikopol and Manganets of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

On November 25, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck enemy manpower concentrations in Melitopol, Polohy, and Mykhailivka. The enemy losses amounted to more than 100 people

wounded; about ten pieces of enemy military equipment and 2 ammunition warehouses were destroyed.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
• Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC); 35th and 36th CA Armies; 3rd AC; 90th tank division; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and the 98th airborne division, and the 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigades of the Airborne Forces, 10th separate SOF brigade.

The enemy shelled with mortars, tanks, barrel and jet artillery Respublikanets, Prydniprovske, Antonivka of Kherson Oblast and the city of Kherson.

Russian troops continued the construction of fortifications in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast along the coastline, particularly the Black Sea coast. In addition, they are moving anti-aircraft missiles and S-300 closer to the city of Kherson, which indicates that the Russian troops will increase the intensity of missile strikes on ground targets north of the Dnipro River in the coming days.

Ukrainian troops attacked Chaplynka and Skadovsk.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

The is no change in the enemy forces at sea. The enemy has 9 surface ships at sea. There is not a single carrier of Kalibr missiles among them.

In the Sea of Azov, the enemy continues to control sea communications, keeping 2 boats on combat duty.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were deployed. The enemy aircraft also flew over sea areas close to the “grain corridor”

(Odesa and Zmiiny Island areas). During the entire period of aggression, the Russian occupiers never once used weapons against ships flying the Turkish flag. However, it is noted that several such vessels have been blocked in Ukrainian ports since February 24.

The enemy continues shelling the coastal towns Ochakiv and Kherson, using artillery and MLRS from the Kinburn spit on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

As part of the “grain initiative” implementation, seven ships with 248,000 tons of agricultural products for Asia and Europe left the ports of Great Odesa. Currently, 19 ships are being processed in the ports of Great Odesa. 740,000 tons of Ukrainian agricultural products are loaded onto them. Another four ships pass through the “grain corridor” to be loaded with 105,000 tons of agricultural products. In total, since August 1, 501 ships left the ports of Great Odesa, which exported 12.2 million tons of Ukrainian food to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 27.11

Personnel – almost 87,310 people (+600);

Tanks – 2,905 (+4)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,856 (+8);

Artillery systems – 1,897 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 395 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 209 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,412 (+6); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,555 (+1); Intercepted cruise missiles – 531 (0);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Publications began to appear in the Russian media about the possible transfer of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZAEP) to the control of the IAEA, which may be a sign of Russian plans to leave the facility. In an interview with TSN, Petro Kotin, president of Energoatom NAEC, expressed this opinion. At the same time, he noted that there are currently no signs of the Russians leaving the captured station. According to him, the invaders forbade the personnel of the ZNPP to leave for the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government.

As of the morning of November 27, electricity producers cover almost 80% of consumption needs, of which critical infrastructure accounts for only about 10%, reported by the press service of NEC “Ukrenergo”.

To restore the energy system of Ukraine, Lithuania sent 6 trucks with 114 transformers of various capacities, reported by the press service of the Ministry of Energy. Lithuania intends to provide

252 transformers. In addition, the following package of humanitarian aid for the energy sector of Ukraine of 2 million euros is also being prepared.

The Ukrainian government decided to ban the export of fuel wood. This will help to accumulate it in Ukraine, said Prime Minister Shmyhal. “In many communities, especially on the front lines, wood is currently the main resource for heating,” he added.

During January-October 2022, 63% of Ukrainian exports were directed to EU countries, the vast majority of them to the central and eastern regions, reported the Office for the Development of Entrepreneurship and Export. At the same time, exports to Western Europe countries fell significantly, particularly to Germany by 20%, the Netherlands by 26%, and Italy by 52%. The export of Ukrainian products to Asian countries also suffered a significant reduction – 57% of the pre-war indicators. The largest trade partners of Ukraine in the region are Turkey and China (more than 54% of export supplies). The reduction of exports (up to 55%) also occurred to African countries. Egypt, Algeria and Libya became Ukraine’s largest trading partners (almost 62% of total exports to the region). Exports to American countries decreased by 67%. The key trade partner of Ukraine in the region remains the USA (71% of export supplies to the region).

International diplomatic aspect

It’s unbelievable how an appeasement policy can fail three times, causing enormous consequences and colossal damage to the European continent. Der Spiegel’s journalist alluded to comparing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s policies to those of the British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, interpreted in a Netflix film. According to the interview, Angela Merkel allegedly was buying time to prepare for a possible conflict with Russia by rejecting Ukraine and Georgia’s bid for NATO’s Membership Action Plan at the 2008 Bucharest summit. Negotiating Minsk arrangements, she allegedly pursued the same goal of buying time for Ukraine to strengthen itself in the face of the Russian invasion.

The policy of appeasing the Kremlin failed in less than five months (after the Bucharest summit) when Russia invaded Georgia. Needless to say, that Germany did nothing to strengthen Georgia and Ukraine before that invasion. Moreover, Angela Merkel championed the Partnership for Modernization instead of treating Russia for its face value. It was this whole EU strategy that allowed Putin and his cronies to enrich themselves, employ strategic corruption as the major foreign policy tool, relegate interests of the CEE, addict Germany and the EU to Russian energy, and provide Moscow with money, expertise, equipment, and technology to boost the economy and strengthen its military.

An update with an appeasement “clause” Ostpolitik brought another damaging result – Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and its proxy war on Donbas. Angela Merkel believed and still repeats that the Minsk arrangements, which she vigorously helped to negotiate, were aimed at buying time for Ukraine to prepare. However, as was the case between the Bucharest summit and the invasion of Georgia, Germany hasn’t provided Ukraine with a single bullet. Instead, Angela Merkel’s government greenlighted the Nord Stream II project, which could have addicted Germany to Russian gas even more. Whatever the reason behind the interview, where

dictatorship in Russia wasn’t named once, it caused more damage to the image of a former counsellor who might have hoped to luster it.

“Europe is united in terms of the goals. The main thing is that Russia does not pose a threat to the security of Europe, and for this, we need a sovereign Ukraine,” the Hungarian Prime Minister said in his address to the members of the International Association of Christian Democrats. He added that the main challenges are the war in Ukraine, the economic crisis, illegal migration, and “the spread of Western neo-Marxist ideology.” It seems Gergely Karácsony, a mayor of Budapest and a political opponent to Viktor Orban, is right that the latter has changed his tactic after failing to demonize Ukraine. But, so far, the change of rhetoric has not changed his government’s unwillingness to impose more costs on Moscow through sanctions, send Ukraine any weapons, or at least provide its territory for the transit of Western weapons to Ukraine.

“We are shocked by the reports of the death of the Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, Vladimir Makei,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson posted on her Telegram channel. The “sudden” death, as reported by the state news agency Belta, raised suspicions on social networks. Vladimir Makei was a proponent of the so-called multivector foreign policy, which means balancing between Russia and the West. Many experts also considered him a possible heir to Lukashenka, the last dictator of Europe (before Putin hijacked the title). His death isn’t going to change the general trajectory of the country that is catastrophically losing the remains of its independence. He wasn’t an alternative to Lukashenka because he supported the illegitimate tyrant who decided to suppress his own people and fall into complete control of his suzerain. The West needs to work out a new approach towards Belarus and extend its support to actors beyond Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her circle.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany is ready to support the embargo on Russian oil from January 1 and refuse supplies through the Druzhba oil pipeline. Until now, German oil refineries in Schwedt and Leuna received oil from Russia through the Druzhba pipeline. However, it is now planned that part of the required amount of oil will be transported to the port of Rostock by tankers and from there to Schwedt by pipeline. Scholz’s federal government is also negotiating with Poland about possible supplies through the port of Gdansk.

As part of the aid package, UK provided Brimstone 2 precision-guided missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The British Ministry of Defense reported this on Twitter. The department noted that this aid plays a decisive role in restraining the advance of Russia by Ukrainian defenders. Last week, Germany handed over a batch of special-purpose vehicles for the Ukrainian military. Thus, two more Oshkosh heavy-duty tractors were delivered to Ukraine; in total 10 units have already been transferred, and 14 cars for the border service (before that, 39 such units were provided). Of the new commitments – 14 tracked vehicles with remote control for support tasks. All this equipment is provided not from the Bundeswehr stocks but from the manufacturers. The total value of individual arms export licenses issued by the federal government between January 1 and November 21, 2022, is €1.637 billion.

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