CDS Daily brief (29.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of 11:00 a.m. Tuesday, November 29, electricity producers meet 70% of electricity consumption needs in Ukraine. However, the capacity deficit is 30%; therefore, electricity supply will be limited in all regions, the press service of NEC “Ukrenergo” reported.

2 power units are not working at the South Ukrainian NPP, so the city of Uman, Cherkasy Oblast, which receives its electricity from the station, is in a critical situation in terms of electricity supply, the city mayor Iryna Plentnyova said. At the same time, she invited the city residents to one of the 18 “Points of Invincibility” organized in the city where they can warm up, charge their devices, etc.

“We start the winter with 14 billion cubic meters of gas in our storage facilities and 1.3 million tons of coal in warehouses. This resource will be enough to get through the winter safely”, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told the government meeting.

According to data from the Polish Border Service, massive missile strikes in October and November and the destruction of critical infrastructure did not cause a mass movement of Ukrainians abroad.

Today, the Russian military hit the residential part of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast with the Grad MRLS, at least one person was killed, and three were injured, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.

Today at 16:55, a representative of the President’s Office reported that the Russian forces attacked the Oblast clinical hospital in Kherson. Windows in the building were broken. There were no casualties.

On the morning on November 28, the Russian forces hit Dnipro, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration (OMA) Valentin Reznichenko, said. They directed several rockets at the night city. A private enterprise was targeted, and a fire broke out at the site of the missile strikes.

This afternoon, the Russian occupying army fired heavy artillery at the Myrivska community in the Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. As a result of the shelling, an elderly woman born in 1949 was injured, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Council, Mykola Lukashuk, said.

The Russian army is shelling the city of Orihiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with rockets and artillery. Today, several more high-rise buildings have been destroyed. 15% of the population remained in the city, said Oleksandr Starukh, the head of Zaporizhzhya OMA. Before the full-scale invasion, the community had about 19,500 residents.

As of 4:57 p.m. on November 29, about 41% of household consumers in Kherson have electricity. The electricity supply has been restored in the central part of the city, and several districts, Yaroslav Yanushevich, head of Kherson OMA, said. Yanushevich noted that the city hospital and the railway now have electricity.

Occupied territories:

The occupation administration in Kherson Oblast said that the issuance of Russian passports to the residents of the occupied territory had been accelerated from three months to 10 days.

The occupation administration in Zaporizhzhya Oblast said it plans to completely transition to the Russian Ruble transactions in the coming year.

According to “Almenda” Civic Education Center, 30 first-graders in the occupied Crimea were for the first time enrolled in the cadet classes of the “Ministry of Emergency Situations”. Also, in October in Simferopol, 36 first-graders of Lyceum No. 3 took an oath and became students of the “Main Directorate of the Investigative Committee”. Almenda noted that the move is meant to motivate children from the occupied territories to voluntarily join the armed forces of the Russian Federation.

In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, the occupying authorities began to compile lists of real estate whose owners left the city due to the occupation. The Russian occupiers marked this property as “unowned”. If the occupiers do not establish the owners of the property within a year, it must pass into municipal ownership, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD reports.

Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, reported that to cover up their war crimes, the Russian invaders in the occupied Mariupol demolished the ruins of the houses they had destroyed during their assault on the city. At the same time, they remove the houses from the Yandex maps – the Russian equivalent of Google maps. As an example, he showed a building at 33, Azovstalska str. It’s still marked on Google maps, but it no longer exists in reality or on the Russian Yandex maps. According to Lubinets, people from more than 50,000 apartments lost the roof over their heads due to the Russian assault on the city.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 28) developments)

It is the 279th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). The Russian military is concentrating its efforts on restraining the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The transfer of Russian personnel and military equipment to replenish the units that have suffered losses continues. It is expected that some Russian units will be transferred from the territory of the Republic of Belarus after they acquire combat capabilities.

Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Novoselivske, Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast and Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Pervomaiske, Opytne, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Over the past day, the Russian forces have launched 9 missile strikes and 13 air strikes and fired over 50 MLRS rounds at Ukrainian troops’ positions and Ukrainian towns and villages. Mortar and artillery shelling was recorded in the areas of Senkivka, Chernihiv Oblast; Seredyna Buda, Novovolodymyrivka, Rozhkovichi in Sumy Oblast; areas of Strilecha, Starytsya, Ohirtseve, Budarki, Chuhunivka, and Ambarne in Kharkiv Oblast. In addition, the threat of Russian missile strikes on critical infrastructure facilities persists throughout Ukraine.

In the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk Oblast, the Russian occupying forces “nationalize” the property of agro-industrial enterprises. For example, they take away crops and equipment from local agricultural companies in the village of Bilokurakyne.

The deployment of Russian troops in Belarus in November 2022 is considered part of the Russian Federation’s efforts to strengthen the potential of training centers of the Russian Armed Forces and conduct an information operation aimed at Ukraine and the West.

At the 230th combined “Obuz-Lesnovsky” military training ground (Brest Oblast, Republic of Belarus), the number of Russian equipment, particularly main battle tanks, has increased; probably a brigade is concentrated at the training ground.

The independent Belarusian monitoring organization, The Hajun Project, reported on November 28 that Russian troops had transferred 15 Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems and 10 units of unspecified engineering equipment to Brest. Combat losses among the instructors of the training centers of the Russian Armed Forces and the stresses associated with mobilization reduced the training potential of the Russian Armed Forces, increasing Russia’s dependence on the training potential of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus.

The Kremlin also seeks to use the deployment of Russian troops in the Republic of Belarus as an information operation. Its purpose is to encourage the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to keep part of its forces in the northern direction to counter a potential Russian threat from Belarus.

The Russian military continues to suffer losses. It’s confirmed that the area where one of the divisions of the Russian occupation forces is located in the city of Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, has been damaged. According to preliminary information, the enemy’s losses are up to 20 soldiers killed and more than 30 wounded.

During the past day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces dealt 3 strikes on areas of the Russian personnel, weapons and military equipment concentration. In addition, air defense units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces shot down Russian Su-25 and Su-24 aircraft.

Kharkiv direction

• Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
• Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 76th Air assault division, 106th airborne division, 2nd, 3rd, 14th, 24th and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMCs.

The Russian forces defend previously occupied frontiers. They fired artillery at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Bolohivka, Kamianka, Kupyansk, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, and Berestove of Kharkiv Oblast and tried to advance in the Lyman area. The Russian forces fired artillery at the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the populated areas in Makiivka, Nevske, Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast, and Yampolivka, Torske, in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks near Kuzemivka and Novoselivske. They attacked Stelmakhivka, shelling it with TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems.

The Ukrainian defense forces advanced in Ploshanka and Dibrova, repulsing Russian attacks on Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske, preventing the Russian military from regaining previously lost positions.

Donetsk direction

• Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 31st separate airborne assault brigades, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military is concentrating its primary efforts on offensive actions. Objects in the areas of Serebryanka, Spirne, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast were hit by tank and artillery fire.

Russian troops captured Ozaryanivka and tried to take control of Kurdyumivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Zelenopillya, Pidgorodne and Spirne to encircle Bakhmut from the south and east. The information operation of the Russian Armed Forces, launched in October, continues. It exaggerates the achievements of Russian forces in the Bakhmut area. To date, Russian units do not threaten the critically important routes T0513 (Bakhmut – Siversk) and T0504 (Bakhmut – Kostyantynivka), which are the main Ukrainian ground logistic lines for the Joint Forces in Bakhmut.

The owner of the “Wagner” PMC, E. Prigozhin, noted that his assault units, operating in the Bakhmut area, advance only 100-200 meters daily.

Zaporizhzhia direction

• Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
• Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military shelled Vuhledar, Novoukrainka, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva and Neskuchne in Donetsk Oblast with artillery. In the Zaporizhzhya direction, the Russian forces conduct defensive operations. There is mortar, barrel and rocket artillery fire recorded on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the populated areas of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast adjacent to the contact line. The civilian infrastructure of the city of Dnipro was hit by Russian rockets.

Tavriysk direction

• Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
• Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC); 35th and 36th CA Armies; 3rd AC; 90th tank division; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and the 98th airborne division, and the 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigades of the Airborne Forces, 10th separate SOF brigade.

The Russian military conducts a positional defense. It continuously shells with artillery Ukrainian troops and residential areas on the right bank of the Dnipro River, including the city of Kherson.

In the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, the Russian occupiers strengthened the administrative-police regime. For this purpose, a replacement of some units of the Russian Armed Forces with units of the Rosgvardiya police units is planned.

Russian troops use the Arabat peninsula as a line of logistical support.

Ukrainian Defense forces fired at Russian supply lines on the east bank of the Dnipro River, including Velyki Kopani (on the R57 Kherson-Nova Kakhovka route), Hola Prystan (south of Kherson) and Radensk (both on the E97 Radensk-Armyansk route).

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions

The Russian fleet keeps 11 surface ships at sea despite the stormy conditions. Among them, there is one cruise missile carrier with 8 Kalibr missiles.

In the Sea of Azov, the Russian military continues to control sea communications, keeping 2 boats on combat duty.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 17 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved. The planes also flew over sea areas close to the grain corridor.

“The Grain initiative”: due to stormy weather conditions, the departure of ships from the ports of Odesa has been delayed. Ukraine and the USA are discussing measures to strengthen the “Grain Initiative”. The working meeting focused on the inclusion of Mykolaiv ports in the “Grain Initiative”, acceleration of inspection of vessels in the Bosphorus and extension of agreements for at least 1 year. These issues were discussed during the visit of the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine, US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative for Sanctions Policy James O’Brien to the ports of Odesa and Pivdenny.

“77 ships are waiting in line for inspection in Turkey, the ports of Greater Odesa use up to 50% of their capacity, the price of grain is increasing with each new instance of blackmail from Russia. Artificial delay leads to losses on the part of farmers and ship owners, as a consequence, the most vulnerable sections of the population and countries on the verge of starvation are affected. One day of downtime costs at least 30 thousand dollars. Currently, the vessels wait 2 to 5 weeks for inspection. “Strategically, we should achieve not only expeditious inspections on the Bosphorus

but also involve the Mykolaiv Ports in Initiative and prolonging the agreement for at least a year. I am grateful to the American partners for their cooperation and willingness to promote strengthening the “Grain Initiative” on international platforms, Oleksandr Kubrakov, Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine, commented.

According to the Minister, Ukraine has already officially addressed the UN and Turkey with a proposal to add the Mykolayiv port to the “Grain Initiative”. It is waiting for a response from the guarantors of the agreements. Also, as part of the visit, the Minister of Infrastructure and representatives of the USA met with representatives of the port and agricultural business. They discussed options for supporting their work within the framework of the Initiative. Since August 1, more than 12 million tons of Ukrainian food have been exported from Greater Odesa ports to Asia, Europe and Africa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 29.11

Personnel – almost 88,380people (+480); Tanks – 2,911 (+3)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,866 (+5);

Artillery systems – 1,901 (+2);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 395 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 209 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,423 (+7); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,555 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 531 (0);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

According to a poll conducted by the international organization Internews, the share of people who consume content from Russian media has decreased in Ukraine. Only 12% of Ukrainians use information from the sources of the occupying country. This is 3% less than in 2021. The main reason for using Russian media is to find out what they are saying about Ukraine. 25% of respondents noted that they know people who read Russian news. 20% of those who read Russian news are looking for an alternative point of view.

Social networks serve as a source of news for 74% of Ukrainians; the use of television for receiving information this year fell more than twice compared to 2015 and comprises 36%. The survey showed that the popularity of regional media also increased significantly this year: regional sites increased their popularity from 27% last year to 55% this year, the use of local TV almost doubled from 27% in 2021 to 44% in 2022, and the use of local radio and newspapers.

Ukraine’s public debt increased by UAH 183.5 billion in October 2022 and at the end of the month amounted to UAH 3.771 trillion in hryvnia equivalent, the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, Danylo Hetmantsev said.

International diplomatic aspect

NATO Secretary-General reiterated the Allies’ support of Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” Jens Stoltenberg has underlined the importance that “President Putin is not able to win in Ukraine”; otherwise, it would be “a tragedy for Ukraine, but it will also make the world more dangerous and much more vulnerable.” “It’s in the security interest of NATO allies to support Ukraine.”

“We will continue to strengthen our partnership with Ukraine as it advances its Euro-Atlantic aspirations… We firmly stand behind our commitment to the Alliance’s Open Door policy. We reaffirm the decisions we took at the 2008 Bucharest Summit and all subsequent decisions with respect to Georgia and Ukraine,” the Statement by NATO Foreign Ministers reads.

The ministers agreed that the “Allies will assist Ukraine as it repairs its energy infrastructure and protects its people from missile attacks.” Jens Stoltenberg confirmed an “ongoing discussion” underway about providing Patriot air defense systems. Separately, addressing the question of whether the US was considering sending Patriot batteries to Ukraine, a senior US defense official replied, “All capabilities are on the table… Patriot is one of the air defense capabilities that is being considered.”

“If, as Stoltenberg hinted, NATO supplies Kiev fanatics with Patriot complexes along with NATO personnel, they will immediately become a legitimate target of our Armed Forces,” former President Medvedev published a comment.

Ukraine has received thirty BMP-1 IFVs from the Slovak Republic and an LRU, bringing to four the total number of these MLRS systems provided by France.

While Russia has destroyed energy infrastructure on an enormous scale, causing a power deficit as high as one-third, partner countries help Ukraine to cope with the challenge. The US announced $53 million to support the purchase of power grid equipment to Ukraine, including distribution transformers, circuit breakers, and surge arresters, among other equipment. This package comes in addition to the existing $55 million in emergency energy sector support. USAID has already delivered over 1,000 power generators to help hospitals, schools, emergency services, and other public service providers. Germany has provided €56 million for the energy infrastructure repair and will deliver 350 generators. France has dispatched 100 generators to Ukraine, a part of the EU pledged 500 generators. “Ukraine is a country of generators, while Russia is of degeneration,” a new meme went viral on Ukrainian social networks.

“There can be no impunity for war crimes and other atrocities,” stated G7 justice ministers, setting a shared goal “to achieve maximum accountability and to deliver justice for victims and survivors.” They have welcomed the work of Ukraine’s and other nation’s public prosecutors for establishing “jurisdiction over such crimes under national law and the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, as authorized on Ukrainian territory by the Government of Ukraine.” The ministers agreed to strengthen coordination and use various tools like the Genocide Network (for the exchange of information on investigations into war crimes, crimes against humanity, and

genocide), the European Judicial Network (facilitation of cross-border judicial cooperation), and Eurojust (the preservation, analysis, and storage of evidence relating to genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and related criminal offenses).

“I am not aware of any de-escalating channel in relation to what is happening in Ukraine. I don’t know about it at all. We don’t have a dialogue with the United States on the Ukrainian topic because our approaches are radically different,” said Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. He also said that there is a “chance” to resume a strategic dialogue with the United States, but only if the Americans would realize that “there should be no one-sided imposition of certain positions.” He announced that Russia had “no choice” but postpone previously agreed talks on START nuclear arms reduction treaty. “The major issues that dominate our agenda with the United States today are more important than some technique and mechanics of work under the new START,” Ryabkov added.

In other words, Russia has failed to make the US abandon its “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” principle while seducing it with strategic stability “talks.” It has been one of the favorite approaches of Russian diplomacy to get concessions from the US at the expense of others. Strategic arms treaties and related talks make Russians feel like a great nation with the “right” to decide for those with “limited” sovereignty.

Russia, relevant news

The United States respects Poland’s decision not to allow Sergey Lavrov to participate in the OSCE Foreign Ministers meeting, the US Representative to the OSCE, Michael Carpenter, said.

The government of the Russian Federation has banned the export of launch vehicles, helicopters, rifled weapons and some other dual-use goods to ”unfriendly’ countries. There are two lists of unfriendly countries in Russia, namely a list of foreign states committing “unfriendly actions” directed against Russian diplomatic and consular missions abroad, launched in 2021, and a list established after the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and regularly updated by the Cabinet. Some counties, e.g., the US and the Czech Republic, find themselves on both lists.

The wholesale and retail company Metro has no plans to leave the Russian market, the company’s press service told the Russian government-owned TASS news agency.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation said it is working on unblocking the Russian assets frozen as a part of foreign sanctions (including in court) but is not considering their buyout.

About 100,000 Russian citizens have remained in Kazakhstan since arriving in the country at the end of September [Russia’s mobilization announcement], Tamara Duisenova, the republic’s minister of labor and social protection, said.

Russian propagandists Margarita Simonyan and Vladimir Solovyov, on the air of one of the programs on Russian television, proposed to take Russian emigrants to court for criticizing the

authorities, charging them with treason and to return the death penalty by firing squad to the Russian Federation, Ukrainska Pravda reported with a reference to Agentstvo publication.

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