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CDS Daily brief (30.11.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of November 30, 2022, the official number of child victims has not changed and makes 440 persons. The number of injured has increased to 852, the Prosecutor General’s Office reports.

As of the evening of November 30, about 6 million consumers in most regions of Ukraine and Kyiv are disconnected from electricity. The situation remains complicated in the capital and in Kyiv Oblast, Vinnytsia, Lviv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi and Cherkasy Oblasts, president Zelenskyy said in his daily video address.

According to the aggregate data from the Oblast military administrations, as of 9 a.m. on November 30, five civilians were killed, and 21 were injured in Ukraine due to Russian armed aggression over the preceding 24 hours.

On the morning of November 30, Russia shelled a hospital in Bilopillya, Sumy Oblast, killing a teenager. Nearby houses and cars were damaged, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said. According to the official, in the last 24 hours alone, Russian forces carried out 158 artillery and 28 mortar attacks on the border areas of Sumy Oblast.

In Donetsk Oblast, the troops of the Russian Federation shelled 12 towns and villages on November 29. Thirty civilian objects were destroyed and damaged – 21 residential buildings, a kindergarten, a research institute, a thermal power plant, and a store. Bakhmut suffered the most, 2 people died there, and 11 more were injured. The Russian forces destroyed a kindergarten and at least 3 private houses in the city.

Russian troops shelled the territory of Kherson Oblast 18 times during the past day, injuring four residents, Yaroslav Yanushevich, head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration (OMA), reported.

18,000 residents of Vinnytsia Oblast remain without heating as the situation in Ladyzhyn has not yet been stabilized. The Ladyzhyn TPP was stopped after the Russian missile strikes on November

23. This was the only enterprise that provided heat in Ladyzhyn, said Serhiy Borzov, the head of Vinnytsia OMA.

The Russian forces continue to shell two important sections of the Dnipro-Mykolayiv water pipeline, causing damages. They also fired at the team of electrical engineers repairing the power supply line to one of these facilities. Mykolayiv has been without a centralized water supply since April 12, when the Russian forces blew up the Dnipro-Mykolaiv water pipeline.

In Kharkiv Oblast, all major highways have been cleared of mines, and bus routes are being restored. Still, mine danger remains very high, said Oleg Sinegubov, head of the Kharkiv OMA.

Forests, however, remain mined, particularly in the Izyum district, the Vovchank district, and the Kupyank district.

Occupied territories:

The FSB of the Russian Federation accused two men and one woman of allegedly organizing an explosion at a market in Melitopol, as well as preparing other terrorist attacks, the Center for Journalist Investigations reports. In the video shown by FSB, the detainees “confessed” that they allegedly “lived in the territory controlled by Ukraine, committed a crime.” CJI reports that the people on the video vanished in Melitopol on October 11 and then were placed under arrest on suspicion of preparing a terrorist attack and illegal possession of weapons by the decision of the Lefortovo Court in Moscow on November 23. The story is similar to other reports from the occupied territories when people are abducted and then tortured into confessions by the Russian occupying authorities, CJI says.

In the temporarily occupied territories of southern Ukraine, the Russian invaders force local residents to send their children to Russian schools, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD reports. If children are outside during school hours, occupation authorities check whether they are enrolled in school. Doctors brought from the Russian Federation during medical examinations check whether the child goes to a Russian school. The Center also informs that telephones belonging to children and their parents are checked for Ukrainian online school applications.

Two days ago, the Russian forces forcefully and against their will relocated about 37 people who reside on the Kinburn spit, Vitality Kim, the head of Mykolayiv OMA, said. The military operation to liberate the spit continues. It’s the only part of Mykolayiv Oblast that remains occupied.

A Russian court sentenced Crimean Tatar Marlen Mustafayev to 17 years in prison for organizing the activities of the Islamic political party Hizb ut-Tahrir in Crimea. The party is banned in Russia and Kazakhstan but is legal worldwide. Ukrainian DFM Emine Dzhaparova said on Twitter that Mustafayev was sent to prison for his pro-Ukrainian position as a member of Crimean Solidarity

– an organization resisting Russian repressions in Crimea.

Russian Ministry of Education and Science said that starting September 1, 2023, universities in the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts of Ukraine must teach according to Russian educational standards.

The local occupation authorities announced that a special deputy head of the occupation administration would appear in Kherson Oblast and deal with “evacuation” issues. This most likely means that the Russian forces are planning to forcefully move more Ukrainian citizens to Russian territory.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (November 29) developments)

It is the 280th day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). Over the past day, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have repelled Russian attacks in the areas around Stelmakhivka in Luhansk Oblast and Bilohorivka, Bakhmutske, Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.

At the same time, the Russian forces launched 2 missile strikes on civilian targets in Kivsharivka in Kharkiv Oblast and Slovyansk in Donetsk Oblast. They carried out 47 airstrikes and fired over 35 MLRS rounds at the positions of Ukrainian troops. The Russian military fired mortars and artillery systems at the areas around Manukhivka, Vorozhba, Prohody, Mykhailivske, and Maiske of Sumy Oblast, the areas around Vysoka Yaruga, Strilecha, Krasne, Hlyboke, Starytsya, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, Ambarne, Petro-Ivanivka and Dvorichna of Kharkiv Oblast.

The threat of Russian missile strikes on critical infrastructure facilities persists throughout the territory of Ukraine.

During the day, the aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces dealt 15 strikes on areas of the Russian personnel, weapons and military equipment concentration and 2 strikes against enemy anti-aircraft missile systems. Over the past day, Ukrainian forces shot down three UAVs of the Orlan-10 type. Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces missile and artillery troops hit an enemy artillery system and one other important Russian military target.

Reports from Russian sources suggest that the Russian Federation may try to use prisoner labor, overtime and child labor to revive the Russian defense industry and make up for the general labor shortage. Thus, 250 convicts from Sverdlovsk Oblast will perform forced labor at a tank repair plant, where plant workers work four extra hours on weekdays and additional shifts on weekends. In addition, the State Duma of the Russian Federation will consider a bill on amendments to the Labor Code of the Russian Federation to simplify the employment procedure for persons under 18 years of age.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 76th Air assault division, 106th airborne division, 2nd, 3rd, 14th, 24th and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMCs.

The Russian forces are on the defensive. They fired tanks and artillery of various types in the areas around Pershotravneve, Orlyanske, Kyselivka and Tabaivka in Kharkiv Oblast and Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, Ploshanka, Nevske, Chervonopopivka in Luhansk Oblast and carried out airstrikes near Makiivka.

The Russian military continued to defend in the northwest of Svatove (the Kupyansk direction). It constantly shells Ukrainian positions in Kupyansk, but the Defense Forces hold the line and repulse the Russian troops.

The Russian forces repulsed the Ukrainian attack in Ivanivka and struck Ukrainian checkpoints in Petropavlivka and Berestove.

The Ukrainian defense forces struck the Russian concentration area and its ammunition depot in Svatove, Lutugine and repulsed Russian attacks near Novoselivske.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 31st separate airborne assault brigades, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiments of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military continues to concentrate its primary efforts on offensive actions. They hit with tank and artillery fire areas of Spirne, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Opytne, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove, Nevelske, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast. The enemy carried out airstrikes in the Avdiivka area.

Russian troops made insignificant progress southeast of Bakhmut and established control over the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal, which directly affects the water supply of Horlivka and Yasynuvata. They advanced in Opytne and began an offensive on Klishchiivka. The Russian forces dealt strikes near Chasiv Yar, Paraskoviivka, Yakovlivka, and Mayorsk station and intensified attacks around Siversk and Soledar, along the T1302 route near Bilohorivka and Yakolyvka. They control more than two-thirds of Maryinka. Fighting continues in Spirne.

Ukrainian forces repelled enemy attacks northeast of Bakhmut in the area of Bakhmutske along the T1302 route and near Soledar, near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, Berestove, Bilohorivka, Yakolivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Krasnohorivka.

During the past week, more than 720 wounded Russian servicemen were brought to the medical facilities of the temporarily occupied city of Donetsk. In the temporarily occupied city of Horlivka, one of the civilian hospitals has been repurposed as a military hospital, where civilian access is entirely restricted. Only medical personnel are allowed to attend to patients.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The Russian military is on the defensive. Russian tank and artillery shelling were recorded in the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Bohoyavlenka, Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Neskuchne and Novopil in Donetsk Oblast and Olhivske, Zahirne, Orihiv, Novoandriivka and Mali Shcherbaky in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Russian military carried out airstrikes in the areas of Vuhledar, Olhivske and Stepove.

The Ukrainian defense forces struck four Russian concentration areas, particularly around Polohy, Tokmak and Basan (along the T0401 route), destroying 470 enemy personnel, 50 pieces of military equipment and a significant amount of ammunition.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC); 35th and 36th CA Armies; 3rd AC; 90th tank division; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and the 98th airborne division, and the 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigades of the Airborne Forces, 10th separate SOF brigade.

The area of Kizomys was hit by rocket artillery fire. The Russian military continues constant artillery shelling of Ukrainian troops and residential areas on the right bank of the Dnipro River, including the city of Kherson.

The Russian forces continued to strengthen defensive positions in the east of Kherson Oblast and regularly shelled the western bank of the Dnipro. They reinforced the administrative presence of law enforcement forces in the occupied Kherson Oblast and plan to introduce Russian Guard units to the area.

Between November 15 and 28, Russian units built defensive fortifications along and perpendicular to the E58/M14 Kherson-Melitopol highway near Fedorivka, Volynske, and Stepne.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions

The Russian fleet keeps 9 surface ships at sea. Among them, there is one cruise missile carrier with 8 Kalibr missiles.

In the Sea of Azov, the Russian military continues to control sea communications, keeping 1 boat on combat duty.

Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 20 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were involved.

“The Grain Initiative”: About 450,000 tons of Ukrainian grain is transported through Poland every month, which is 50% more than what was transported in the middle of the year, the Polish Minister of Infrastructure Andrzej Adamczyk said Wednesday, “Europeyska Pravda” reports with reference to the Reuters agency. “Compared to October last year, the growth of grain transportation for the same period in 2022 is more than 16 times,” Adamczyk added.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 30.11

Personnel – almost 88,880people (+500); Tanks – 2,914 (+3)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,872 (+6);

Artillery systems – 1,902 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 395 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 210 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,429 (+6); Aircraft – 278 (0);

Helicopters – 261 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,562 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 531 (0);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Based on the results of the meeting of justice ministers of the G7 countries, there is an obvious readiness to hold Russia accountable for war crimes, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an evening video address.

The Security Service of Ukraine charged another 19 militants of the “L/DPR” terrorist organization with committing severe crimes, SBU said. The perpetrators were captured during the Defence Forces’ counteroffensive and Kharkiv Oblast’s liberation. Among the detainees are former prisoners who once served sentences for criminal offenses, including murder. The suspects voluntarily came to local “military commissariats” and “enlisted” in the ranks of the groups within the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation. They are charged with treason.

President Zelensky informed he had held another meeting of the Commander-in-Chief HQ today. “We are analyzing the intentions of the occupiers and are preparing a countermeasure – an even more powerful countermeasure than now.” The President also said he held a separate meeting on energy and communications issues. He noted that the results of what has already been done to protect Ukrainian energy systems are being recorded, and new solutions are being prepared. “We are also preparing new solutions to prevent Russia from manipulating Ukraine’s domestic situation. We will provide detail on this in due course,” Zelenskiy said.

International diplomatic aspect

“Diplomacy is ultimately the only way to definitively end Russia’s war of aggression” and achieve “a just and durable peace,” stated Antony Blinken. However, Putin shows no interest in diplomacy and escalates; thus, it’s important that he “must be disabused of the notion that it can succeed.” “The best way to actually hasten the prospects for real diplomacy is to sustain our support to Ukraine and continue to tilt the battlefield in its favor,” concluded the US Secretary of State.

“The message is simple: give Patriots as soon as you can because this is the system that Ukraine needs to protect its civilian population and critical infrastructure,” Ukraine’s Foreign mister called on Germany that thought to send Patriot air defense systems to Poland. Instead, the Polish side proposed to send those systems directly to Ukraine, which would secure the airspace of both countries.

NATO is considering investments in the production of Soviet-era weapon systems in Ukraine. “We’re looking at every option to make sure that, again, [the Ukrainians] get what they need and what can be most effective for them. Some of that does go to Soviet-era systems that they’ve had in their inventory for decades and, for example, making sure that the ammunition is there for those systems,” said Antony Blinken after meeting NATO foreign ministers in Bucharest.

The Biden Administration asks Congress for $1.1 billion to secure Ukraine and Moldova’s energy sector and restore their energy supply. Lithuania commits €13 million for Ukraine (the World

Bank fund for Ukraine, restoration of energy infrastructure, for Ukrainian refugees in Moldova, and the “Grains from Ukraine” initiative). Canada completed the issuance of a $500 million Ukraine Sovereignty Bond to assist the Ukrainian government in providing essential services, such as pensions, the purchasing of fuel, and restoring energy infrastructure.

The German Bundestag voted a resolution recognizing Holodomor as a genocide. “The killing by hunger also had as its aim the political repression of Ukrainian national identity, Ukrainian culture, and language,” said Robin Wagener, an MP from the Green party. It’s an essential move towards honoring innocent victims and bringing the inhumane communist regime to justice. The move was less imaginable just a year ago when Germany was keener to have good relations with Moscow than to admit that the Bolshevik regime had committed genocide.

The EU proposed to set up an UN-backed court to investigate Russia’s war crimes committed in Ukraine. The International Criminal Court has already launched a probe, but Russia doesn’t accept its jurisdiction. So, as a solution, the EU sees a “special independent international court based on a multilateral treaty or a specialized court integrated into a national justice system with international judges – a hybrid court.” The decision coincided with the appeal of Ukraine’s First Lady to the British parliamentarians, “Victory is not the only thing we need. We need justice.” The EU is also working out mechanisms of employing frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine, which constitute justice in financial equivalent.

An explosion occurred at the Embassy of Ukraine in Spain, injuring one person. The suspicious parcel addressed to the Ambassador was opened outside the premises. The guard managed to throw the package away when he heard a mechanic sound. It’s the first case of terrorist act against Ukrainian diplomats of that kind. Though it’s up to the law enforcement agencies to investigate, it’s highly likely related to the Ukraine-Russia war.

Russia, relevant news

On November 30, the Russian Ministry of Culture published the list of topics for the films to be supported by the government money in the order of priority. Among them are films about Russia “as a modern, stable and safe state that provides opportunities for development and self- realization.” In addition, the Russian authorities want to see the degradation of Europe, the unity of society around the support of the army and “Malorosiya (Little Russia, the derogatory term used for Ukraine in Russia – ed.) as a historical region of Russia” in government-supported films. Films about “anti-fascism” and “heroism and self-sacrifice of the Russian military during a special military operation” in Ukraine will also be financially supported.

The German embassy in Moscow refused to issue visas to representatives of Rossotrudnichestvo, the Russian government agency officially in charge of ties with compatriots abroad, who “were going to attend cultural events in Germany”, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. She called the situation “a manifestation of Berlin’s tendentious anti-Russian policy.” The agency is known to be involved in Russian covert influence activities abroad.

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