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CDS Daily brief (02.12.22) | CDS comments on key events

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Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of December 2, 2022, more than 1,293 children suffered in Ukraine as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 441 children died, and more than 852 were injured of various degrees of severity.

As a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation over the past day, December 1, three civilians were killed, and 16 more were injured. The Russian Federation’s army shelled seven Oblasts of Ukraine:

  • During the past day, the Russian invaders shelled Kherson and Kherson Oblast 42 times, and 9 times the border areas of Sumy Oblast, stated the deputy head of the Office of the President, Kyrylo Tymoshenko. In Kherson, Russians hit the residential quarters, private and multi-apartment buildings. As a result, 3 people died and 7 were injured.
  • As a result of the shelling of Novovasylivka, Sumy Oblast, a granary and power lines were damaged. Without victims.
  • At night, the Russian invaders hit a 5-story residential building in Klugyno- Bashkyrivka, Kharkiv Oblast, with an S-300 missile. As a result, two women were injured, and the house was partially destroyed.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast was also hit by rockets. In Zaporizhzhia, the projectile hit the infrastructure facility; a fire spread over 200 square meters, which firefighters in the morning extinguished. In Zarichne, half of the building has been destroyed, and the windows of nearby houses have been broken. There are no casualties.
  • In the evening, for the second time in a day, the enemy shelled Nikopol and Chervonohryhorivska community of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with heavy artillery, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council, Mykola Lukashuk, said. They hit one of the enterprises; preliminary, no casualties were reported. In the Chervonohryhorivska community, a church building, a shop, four private houses, outbuildings, and power lines were damaged.
  • In Donetsk Oblast, on December 1, the Russian Military shelled 13 towns and villages; there are wounded civilians, reports the communication department of the police of Donetsk region. 25 civilian objects were destroyed and damaged, including 10 residential buildings, a gymnasium, a technical school, a metallurgical plant, a thermal power plant, a heating network, a building of a non-working enterprise, commercial buildings, and cars.

Since the beginning of August 2022, 317,853 people have already been evacuated from the territories of active hostilities, including 76,023 children, 8,010 people with disabilities, said the deputy head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, at a briefing. According to him, currently, more than 1,300,000 places for temporarily displaced persons have been arranged in 15 regions of Ukraine on the initiative of the Oblasts’ Military Administrations. 89 percent are already occupied.

Emergency shutdowns of electricity continued in Kyiv Oblast; overloading of the power system leads to new emergency shutdowns, the head of the Kyiv Regional Military Administration, Oleksiy Kuleba, reported.

Civil society should timely collect evidence and testimony of the crimes of the Russian army in Ukraine, thus helping national law enforcement and international bodies that will be able to open cases against criminals, stated Oleksandra Drik, a representative of the Center for Civil Liberties, Ukrinform reports. “As of today, about 27,000 such crimes have been documented. These are

30 different types of crimes, which include murder, torture, destruction of civilian infrastructure, looting of occupied cities, and so on,” Drik said. Center for Civil Liberties is a human rights organization (this year’s Nobel laureate – ed.), which has co-founded the “Tribunal for Putin” initiative since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, documents crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine.

The information about 100,000 Ukrainian victims of human trafficking does not correspond to reality, to date there are 50 reports of crimes related to human trafficking, and criminal proceedings have been opened for only six such facts, said Yurii Parkhomenko, a representative of the Migration Police Department of the Ukrainian National Police

during a briefing. He informed that since the beginning of the invasion of the Russian Federation, units of the Migration Police established cooperation with European partners, and a European platform for information exchange was created, where every European country that joined this platform provides information on human trafficking.

Occupied territories:

In Vasylivka, the occupiers left a column of civilians from Zaporizhzhia overnight at a checkpoint, the mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reported.

According to Fedorov, the invaders left civilians to spend the night on the side of the road in sub- zero temperatures. “They say they are afraid of shelling. That’s why they put a convoy of cars of peaceful people in front of their military base,” he wrote.

In recent weeks, the Russian military at checkpoints has not released men of draft age from the temporarily captured territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said at a briefing at the Ukraine-Ukrinform Media Center. He added that no more than ten people, excluding men of conscription age, can leave Melitopol and the district per day.

Operational situation

(Please note that this section of the Brief is mainly on the previous day’s (December 1) developments)

It is the 282nd day of the strategic air-ground offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine (in the official terminology of the Russian Federation – “operation to protect Donbas”). Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Chervonopopivka, and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and

Hryhorivka, Vyimka, Bakhmut, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivnichne, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.

During the past day, the enemy launched 5 rocket attacks on the civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, carried out 30 airstrikes on the positions of Ukrainian troops, and more than 35 MLRS rounds on populated areas along the contact line. Russian artillery shelled the areas of Slobozhanske, Ohirtseve, Bochkove, Mala Vovcha, Budarka, Strilecha, Ternova, Chugunivka, Dvorichne and Zapadne of Kharkiv Oblast. The enemy continues to keep its troops in the border areas of the Belgorod region. Russian separate units continue training at the training grounds of the Republic of Belarus.

There is still a threat of the enemy launching missile strikes on the energy system and critical infrastructure throughout the territory of Ukraine.

During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces aircraft made 19 strikes on the areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment, 3 strikes on the positions of the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile systems. Over the past day, Ukrainian troops shot down a UAV of the Orlan-10 type. In addition, Ukrainian missile troops and artillery hit 4 enemy command and control points, the area of concentration of personnel and equipment, 5 other important military targets.

Kharkiv direction
  • Topoli – Siversk section: approximate length of combat line – 154 km, number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 23-28, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 5.5 km;
  • Deployed enemy BTGs: 26th, 153rd, and 197th tank regiments (TR), 245th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 47th tank division (TD), 6th and 239th TRs, 228th MRR of the 90th TD, 25th and 138th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRBr) of the 6th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 27th SMRBr of the 1st Tank Army, 252nd and 752nd MRRs of the 3rd MRD, 1st, 13th, and 12th TRs, 423rd MRR of the 4th TD, 201st military base, 15th, 21st, 30th SMRBrs of the 2nd CA Army, 35th, 55th and 74th SMRBrs of the 41st CA Army, 275th and 280th MRRs, 11th TR of the 18th MRD of the 11 Army Corps (AC), 7th MRR of the 11th AC, 80th SMRBr of the 14th AC, 76th Air assault division, 106th airborne division, 2nd, 3rd, 14th, 24th and 45th separate SOF brigades of the Airborne Forces, military units of the 1st AC of so-called DPR, 2nd and 4th SMRBrs of the 2nd AC, PMCs.

The enemy is on defense. Russian military fired tanks and artillery of various calibers in the areas of Tabaivka, Krokhmalne and Berestove of Kharkiv Oblast; Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Makiivka and Ploschanka in Luhansk Oblast and Novoselivka and Torske in Donetsk Oblast. The enemy’s 55th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st Army is actively setting up positions along the Nyzhnya Duvanka – Novonikanorivka line, in particular – two battalion defense areas.

In order to improve its tactical position northwest of Svatove, during the last three days, two enemy BTGs from the 254th motorized rifle regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division have been carrying out a series of unsuccessful attacks in the directions of Kuzemivka – Novoselivske

and Kolomiychikha – Stelmakhivka. They try to push the units of the Defense Forces from the R- 07 road to the area between Kupyansk and Svatove. BTG of the 245th motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division of the 1st Tank Army is kept in reserve in this direction. As a result of the enemy’s unsuccessful actions, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the nearby approaches to Zhytlivka, where the enemy urgently transferred units of the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps.

Also, Russian forces of up to four BTGs from the 20th Army, two BARS detachments, rifle battalion of the mobilization reserve of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps (with a total number of up to 2-3 rifle companies without heavy weapons) failed to advance west of Dibrova, and the advanced units of the Ukrainian Defense forces occupied a convenient frontier for the offensive on Kreminna.

The Russian military is increasing its artillery grouping, transferring units from Troitske and from the southern direction, actively using EW means, and listening to the radio transmissions of the Ukrainian side.

Donetsk direction
  • Siversk – Maryinka section: approximate length of the combat line – 144 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 13-15, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 9.6 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 68th and 163rd tank regiments (TR), 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments of the 150 motorized rifle division, 80th TR of the 90th tank division, 35th, 55th, and 74th separate motorized rifle brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 51st and 31st separate airborne assault brigades, 61st separate marines brigade of the Joint Strategic Command “Northern Fleet,” 336th separate marines brigade of Baltic Fleet, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 15th, and 100th separate motorized rifle brigades, 9th and 11th separate motorized rifle regiments of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called DPR, 6th motorized rifle regiment of the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions. Russian military shelled with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery the areas of Andriivka, Serebryanka, Verkhnyokamianske, Druzhba, Spirne, Rozdolivka, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Pivnichne, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka, Klishchiivka, Zalizne, New York, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Krasnohorivka and Maryinka. The Russian troops are trying to improve their tactical position in the Avdiivka area.

Zaporizhzhia direction
  • Maryinka – Vasylivka section: approximate length of the line of combat – 200 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 17, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 11.7 km;
  • Deployed BTGs: 36th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 29th Combined Arms (CA) Army, 38th and 64th SMRBrs, 69th separate cover brigade of the 35th CA Army, 5th separate tank brigade, 135th, 429th, 503rd and 693rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 58th CA Army, 70th, 71st and 291st MRRs of the 42nd MRD of the 58th CA Army, 136th SMRB of the 58 CA Army, 46th and 49th machine gun artillery regiments of the 18th machine gun artillery division of the 68th Army Corps (AC), 39th SMRB of the 68th AC, 83th

separate airborne assault brigade, 40th and 155th separate marines brigades, 22nd separate SOF brigade, 1st AC of the so-called DPR, and 2nd AC of the so-called LPR, PMCs.

The enemy is on the defensive, shelling the areas of Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Bohoyavlenka, Paraskoviivka, Zolota Nyva, Prechystivka, Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Nikopol, Kamianske, Hulyaipole, Dorozhnyanka, Biloghirya in Zaporizhia Oblast and Ilyinka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Tavriysk direction
  • Vasylivka – Stanislav section: approximate length of the battle line – 296 km, the number of BTGs of the RF Armed Forces – 39, the average width of the combat area of one BTG – 7,5 km;
  • Deployed BTGs of: the 8th and 49th Combined Arms (CA) Armies; 11th, 103rd, 109th, and 127th rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps (AC); 35th and 36th CA Armies; 3rd AC; 90th tank division; the 22nd AC of the Coastal Forces; the 810th separate marines brigade of the Black Sea Fleet; the 7th and the 98th airborne division, and the 11th and 83rd separate airborne assault brigades of the Airborne Forces, 10th separate SOF brigade.

The enemy is on the defensive. They fired with artillery on the villages located on the right bank of the Dnipro River, particularly Kachkarivka, Tokarivka, and Antonivka, Kherson Oblast. The enemy does not stop shelling the city of Kherson and its suburbs.

In the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, the enemy intensified filtering measures: at the entry and exit points from Henichesk, the occupiers check all vehicles, documents and phones of local residents.

In the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, employees of military commissariats are preparing for the next wave of mobilization. According to the available information, in Kerch, data reconciliations of conscripts are carried out at state enterprises.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction;
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications (except for the areas of the BSGI “grain initiative”) by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

The enemy has 6 surface ships at sea. There are no “Kalibr” cruise missile carriers among them.

In the Sea of Azov, the enemy continues to control sea communications, keeping 2 boats on combat duty.

There is still a threat of missile strikes on the critical infrastructure of Ukraine and military facilities in the near future. The enemy’s goal is to cause panic in the population to destabilize the internal situation. During the week, the crews of Tu-95 Russian strategic bombers flew in the airspace of the eastern part of the Russian Federation and the waters of the Barents Sea. Ships of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla were ready for a missile attack.

Enemy aviation continues to fly from Crimean airfields Belbek and Gvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Over the past day, 14 combat aircraft from Belbek and Saki airfields were deployed.

In Sevastopol, the command of the Russian Navy identified the frigate “Admiral Essen” as the best ship of the fleet in 2022. The frigate “Admiral Grigoryovych” (since the beginning of 2022 has been in the Mediterranean Sea) was noted as the best ship of the Russian Navy in firing at an aerial target at low altitude. At a meeting with sailors on December 1 at the pier of Holland Bay (Sevastopol), the commander of the Russian Navy, Vice-Admiral Sokolov, identified “moral, political and psychological education of personnel as a priority direction of the command of the Russian Navy in 2023.” Also, for the first time publicly, the command of the Russian Navy officially announced a “minute of silence” for the dead from the crew of the sunken cruiser “Moskva”.

The NTS TV channel reports that in Sevastopol, in recent months, work on the preparation of bomb shelters in civilian apartment buildings (mainly built in the 1950s and 1960s) has intensified. However, due to a lack of budget funds, the residents of the houses independently restore bomb shelters and basements and purchase equipment.

“Grain Initiative”: on the evening of December 1, GOLDEN ARSENAL sent 27,000 tons of wheat to Algeria, suffering from a food crisis. On the last day, a caravan of 3 ships left Great Odesa’s ports, delivering 126,000 tons of agricultural products to Africa, Asia and Europe. Currently, 22 vessels are being processed in the ports of Great Odesa. 767,000 tons of Ukrainian agricultural products are loaded onto them. 4 ships are moving along the “grain corridor” to load 205,000 tons of agricultural products.

Since August 1, 508 ships left the ports of Great Odesa and exported 12.4 million tons of Ukrainian food to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 02.12

Personnel – almost 90,090 people (+650);

Tanks – 2,916 (+1)

Armored combat vehicles – 5,883 (+6);

Artillery systems – 1,905 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 395 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 210 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,464 (+23); Aircraft – 280 (0);

Helicopters – 262 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,564 (+2); Intercepted cruise missiles – 531 (0);

Boats/ships – 16 (0).

Ukraine, general news

As of the morning of December 2, Ukraine’s electricity producers provide 83% of [needed] consumption. However, considering critical infrastructure needs, businesses and households are provided with electricity by 40-50%, stated Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during the government meeting.

“Ukrenergo” will bill Russia for damaged and destroyed energy infrastructure facilities, Ukrenergo representative Maksym Yurkov said. “We record all the damage in real-time, every day. We are drawing up an estimate and will soon bill the Russians for our destroyed facilities. We already have experience in invoicing the Russian Federation. Because we are one of the few who have sued and are continuing this process regarding our assets in Crimea.” He added that a legal mechanism is already being developed, according to which the company will be able to protect its interests in terms of compensation for the damage caused.

Due to power outages and the threat of blackouts, the demand for Starlink in Ukraine among Nova Poshta customers has increased tenfold. “We used to deliver up to five Starlinks a day, now we deliver 50 or more units every day,” said Mykhailo Glushko, product director of international delivery at Nova Poshta Global. The record is 250 Starlinks per day.

The European Union has opened a cyber defense laboratory in Kyiv that will help the Armed Forces protect themselves and Ukrainian cyberspace from attacks by the Russian aggressor, as reported on the European External Action Service website. As noted, this will enable Ukraine to build and develop capabilities for effective cyber defense of the Armed Forces, identification of external interference in information systems, prevention and repulsion of cyber attacks, as well as general strengthening of capabilities in the field of cyber security.

As of December 1, Ukrainian farmers completed the harvesting of grain and leguminous crops from 9.4 million hectares (85% of the total sown area) and threshed 41.9 million tons of grain with a yield of 44.4 tons/ha, reported the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.

International diplomatic aspect

Though Joe Biden “has no immediate plans to contact Mr Putin,” he is prepared to speak with him “if in fact there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war. He hasn’t done that yet.” POTUS believes “there is one way for this war to end the rational way: Putin to pull out of Ukraine.” Joe Biden described his and the US allies’ approach towards the Russian war: “Help Ukraine resist. Never give up on anything in the UN Charter. Prevent any risk of escalation in this conflict. And make sure that, when the time comes, on basis of conditions to be set by

Ukrainians themselves, help build peace.” “The idea that Putin is ever going to defeat Ukraine is beyond comprehension,” concluded Joe Biden.

President Macron wants to see a “sustainable peace” and respects the right of the “Ukrainians to decide the moment and the conditions in which they will negotiate about their territory and their future.” The French President “will never urge the Ukrainians to make a compromise which will not be acceptable for them because they are so brave and they defend precisely their lives, their nation, and our principles, and because it will never build a sustainable peace.”

The Kremlin spokesman said that Putin “has always been and remains open to negotiations in order to ensure Russia’s interests.” He rejected the idea of leaving illegally annexed territories, regretting that the “US, as before, does not recognize new territories within the Russian Federation, and, of course, this significantly complicates the search for ground for mutual discussion.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has phoned Vladimir Putin and made clear to him “that there must be a diplomatic solution as quickly as possible, which includes a withdrawal of Russian troops.” Putin replied that he has no regrets about launching the war, pushing his bizarre claim of “denazification” of Ukraine.

It shows that the Kremlin still hopes to somehow change the tide of the war, either on the battlefield or by attempts to undermine Western support for Ukraine. The Western leaders showed no intention to push Ukraine for a “compromise,” which would have meant that Russia’s aggression paid off. Moreover, as the solution to the problem, they see the withdrawal of the Russian occupation forces and restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity (honoring the UN Charta).

“A record depletion of workers is fast spreading across a country [Russia] already hobbled by an aging and shrinking population and with unemployment near the lowest ever,” Bloomberg writes. The mobilization pushed hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee the country. The data shows an 81% monthly increase in resume from Russian citizens in Kazakhstan, 59% in Georgia and Uzbekistan, 55% in Kyrgyzstan, 44% in Armenia, 38% in Azerbaijan, and 33% in Turkey. The choice of countries depended on the ability of escapees to get from Russia, locked by EU restrictions, as well as pockets of Russian speakers living in those countries and enjoying a friendly environment. Turkey has been a favorite destination for Russian tourists and businesses for decades.

As an irony, when the Bolsheviks seized power in Russia, tens of thousands of royalists and that time middle-class Russians fled to Turkey from the Ukrainian port of Odesa. In September- November 1922, Bolshevik Russia’s leader Vladimir Lenin, much loved by the western left, ordered to deport from Russia some 228-272 intellectuals. The so-called “Philosophy Steamer” was a catastrophic blow to humanitarian and intellectual elites in Russia.

The US Senate confirmed Robert Storch to serve as the US Department of Defense inspector general. His portfolio will include US defense assistance to Ukraine. The Inspector general will

conduct “audits, evaluations, and investigations to promote efficiency and prevent fraud, waste, and abuse in DoD support provided to Ukraine.”

While knowing how the taxpayer’s money is being spent is the legitimate and right thing to do, certain politicians intend to use the Ukrainian factor in their political contest with the Biden Administration some 700 days before the presidential elections. Republicans have been calling for such an appointment and more Congressional oversight of the assistance. Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) assured that Republicans will ensure that Ukraine “gets what they need.” However, he expressed his unhappiness with the large “Democrat bills,” which “we don’t need to pass $40 billion… to send $8 billion to Ukraine.”

The US has approached its NATO and Middle Eastern partners to have a deal on sending several NASAMS to Ukraine early next year and consecutive “backfill [those countries] with new production over the next two years,” according to the Raytheon Technologies CEO.

The Pentagon is weighing a major expansion in training for the UAF aimed at increasing their ability to wage a more sophisticated campaign. The UAF might get training similar to the ones US military units receive at their major training hubs. It will be focused on increasing the UAF’s ability to maneuver on the battlefield and fight in combined-arms warfare employing weapons provided by Western partners. A possible slowdown of fighting in the wintertime will allow preparing capable forces for a spring-summer campaign.

Russia, relevant news

Reuters reports that Airbus plans to abandon purchases of Russian titanium in the coming months.

The Italian government has decided to nationalize one of the largest refineries in Europe – the ISAB plant in Sicily, which belongs to the Russian company Lukoil. The nationalization of Russian oil and gas companies is taking place across Europe. In particular, Germany recently announced the nationalization of Gazprom’s subsidiary.

Disney TV channel stops broadcasting in Russia from December 14.

Ice cream brand “Baskin Robbins” leaves Russia. The Russian factory BRPI, which has been producing ice cream according to the original recipe for about 30 years and developing a chain of franchised cafes, has lost the rights to the recipe and to continue operating under the American brand. Now BRPI will develop a network of cafes under its own brand.

Hundreds of videos about “Wagner” PMC have been found on TikTok. They have been viewed more than a billion times, although the rules of the [TikTok] platform prohibit the publication of such records. According to Russian opposition media Meduza, the videos containing the endorsement and advertising of PMC Wagner were reported by the NewsGuard team, which is investigating disinformation on the Internet. In particular, analysts found 160 videos that demonstrate or endorse acts of violence committed by PMC fighters, including 14 videos with

footage of the murder of former mercenary Yevgeny Nuzhin. Ten of them TikTok removed, and four more remain available.

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