CDS Daily brief (10.01.23) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
- Russia continued attacking Ukrainian residential areas, killing 4 and injuring 30 civilians during the last day.
- The power deficit has increased in Ukraine due to low temperatures, strong winds in most regions, and increased consumption by industry and business.
- A security zone around the Zaporizhzhia NPP can be established only after demilitarization and complete de-occupation of the station’s territory.
- The National Police of Ukraine established that more than 16,000 Ukrainians died due to Russian aggression]; more than a thousand bodies have been already exhumed from the 21 uncovered mass graves.
- Since February 24, the SBU has exposed more than 600 Russian agents and spies and is investigating more than 1,500 criminal proceedings for treason and espionage.
- The enemy increased efforts to capture Soledar.
- The enemy surrounded Soledar from three sides, stormed and captured most of Krasna Hora, and kept the section of roads T0513 (Bakhmut – Siversk) and M03 (Bakhmut – Slovyansk) under fire control.
- Ukrainian Forces stopped the enemy at the approaches to the T0513 road. They control parts of Krasna Hora, Pidhorodnie, Klishchiivka, and the T0504 road (Bakhmut – Kostyantynivka).
- Escalation indicators: The Russian command transferred several landing battalions and heavy equipment to the Kreminna area to maintain the defense line; Ukrainian troops are concentrating a large grouping in the Vuhledar area, which may indicate preparations for an offensive.
- Russian and Ukrainian troops will continue offensive actions on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- The majority of Ukrainians rule out peace talks with Russia on the condition of abandoning the idea of NATO membership. The most trusted leaders [for Ukrainians] are the presidents of Poland, the US, and the EU (EC). The least trusted are Putin, Lukashenko, and Xi.
- Turkey voices its support for the 10-point peace plan of President Zelensky. Turkey’s Foreign Minister believes Russia is ready for talks. However, Kremlin’s words and actions do not suggest any ground for that. It’s rather Ankara’s willingness to capitalize on the mediating role.
- Josep Borrell insists that Russia’s withdrawal from all of Ukraine “is the only serious option to restore peace and security.”
- Russia ended 2022 with a budget deficit of 3.35 trillion rubles, one of the largest in the country’s history.
More than 1,332 Ukrainian children suffered as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. The official number of child victims killed is 453. The number of wounded children has increased to more than 879, reported the Prosecutor’s general office.
Ministry of reintegration of temporarily Occupied Territories reported that using its “Children of War” portal, it has already been possible to collect information about 13,613 children deported to the territory of the Russian Federation and temporarily occupied territories and to return 125 children to Ukraine.
As a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation over the past day, January 9, four civilians were killed, and 30 were injured in Ukraine, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said with reference to the Oblast Military Administration (OMA) data.
According to the information made public by Oblast Military Administrations in the morning round-up, Russian troops attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts on January 9.
Consequences of enemy shelling as of the morning of January 10
- The Russians shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast twice during the night. Houses and cafes were damaged.
- Over the past day, law enforcement officers documented 21 reports of house destruction [by enemy fire] in the Polohy, Vasylivka, and Zaporizhzhia districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- The occupiers shelled the territory of Kherson Oblast 46 times. 2 killed and 2 wounded civilians were reported. In Kherson, enemy shells hit critical infrastructure facilities and private and apartment buildings.
- As a result of yesterday’s shelling of Ochakiv, Mykolayiv Oblast, 15 people were injured, including a 2-year-old child. The blast wave damaged the windows and roofs of more than 200 residential buildings, administrative buildings, and social infrastructure facilities. The explosive wave also damaged roofs and windows in Chornomorska, Kutsurubska and Berezanska communities.
- Yesterday, around 9:00 a.m., the occupiers launched a rocket attack on the market in Shevchenkove village, Kharkiv Oblast. 2 women died. Another 6 people were injured, including a 10-year-old girl. In addition, during the day, the enemy shelled the border towns and villages of the Chuhuyiv and Kharkiv districts. One wounded was reported in Dvorichna.
- Late in the evening, the enemy attacked Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast. The occupiers hit the roadway and a car with people in it. Two people who were in the car died.
As of the morning of January 10, electricity consumption in Ukraine increased due to low temperatures, exacerbated by strong winds in most regions. Consumption by industry and business, which is typical for the working day, also increased. As a result, the power deficit has
increased, including at night,” reported NEC “Ukrenergo”. In some regions, due to gusty wind, there is damage to the networks of distribution system operators, repair work is underway.
The company emphasizes that in the front-line regions in the east and south, the situation with electricity supply remains challenging due to significant damage to power grids due to the high activity of hostilities.
The occupiers turned the Zaporizhzhia NPP into a military and repair base. The station itself currently does not produce energy, but only consumes it, stated Oleg Korikov, Acting Head of the State Nuclear Regulation Inspection of Ukraine, during the briefing. According to him, all six power units are stopped. However, ZNNP receives electricity from the energy system of Ukraine. “Electricity is needed for safety systems to work, in particular those that provide residual heat removal from nuclear fuel,” Korikov said.
A security zone around the Zaporizhzhia NPP can be established only under the condition of demilitarization and complete de-occupation of the station’s territory, including the city of Energodar. ” We passed on these proposals, and the IAEA Director General, in his negotiations, starts from the Ukrainian position,” noted the head of the State Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
According to Korikov, during the period of occupation, there was a significant degradation of nuclear and radiation safety at the ZNPP. At the station, there are military personnel and Rosatom representatives who interfere in the technological process of NPP management.
The President of Eurojust, Ladislav Hamran, said the investigation of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine is being conducted in 21 countries. The vast majority of investigations are conducted in EU countries, Hamran noted during his visit to Lithuania in an interview with local mass media.
In his opinion, gathering evidence “will be a long journey that will last several years.” On March 1, the General Prosecutor’s Office of Lithuania started a pre-trial investigation into aggression, war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Currently, according to the prosecutor’s office, almost three hundred witnesses have been questioned, and more than seventy people have been recognized as victims.
In the captured Mariupol, the occupation authorities began the forced “passportization” of the city’s residents, Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, reported in his Telegram channel. “From January 1, it becomes mandatory to obtain Russian passports for all teachers, doctors, police officers and state government employees. From March 1, it will be impossible to do business on the territory of Mariupol without a Russian passport,” Andryushchenko wrote. According to him, all so-called local judges, lawyers, and lawyers must also be accredited by the “DPR” by March 1.
Victims of Russian aggression
As a result of the invasion of the Russian Federation, more than 16,000 people died in Ukraine; and more than a thousand bodies have been exhumed from the 21 uncovered mass graves, stated the National Police of Ukraine in response to the ZMINA publication’s information request. The largest number of dead were found in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Kyiv Oblasts. “Out of the indicated number, most of the bodies have gunshot wounds and mine-explosive injuries (it is impossible to specify the exact number of such persons due to the incompleteness of the expert studies intended to establish the causes of death),” the response to the request states.
Operational situation General conclusion:
The enemy increased efforts to capture Soledar.
- The enemy advanced somewhat in the area of Opytne.
- Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Chervonopopivka, Kuzmine in Luhansk Oblast and Soledar, Bilohorivka, Pidhorodnie, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Vodyane, Kurdyumivka, Mayorsk, Maryinka, Pobieda in Donetsk Oblast. The Defense Forces stopped the enemy at the approaches to the T0513 road. They control parts of Krasna Hora, Pidhorodnie, Klishchiivka, and the T0504 road (Bakhmut – Kostyantynivka).
- Russian troops attacked near Makiyivka, Bilohorivka, and Chervonopopivka; intense fighting continued near Kreminna. The enemy surrounded Soledar from three sides, stormed and captured most of Krasna Hora, and kept the section of roads T0513 (Bakhmut – Siversk) and M03 (Bakhmut – Slovyansk) under fire control.
- Russian troops continue to build defensive fortifications southwest of Melitopol in the direction to Crimea, in particular, anti-tank fortifications “dragon’s teeth” on the E105 Melitopol – Dzhankoy road between Vovchanske and Chervone, trenches along the Kakhovka canal between Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast and Novohrygorivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- The Russian command transferred several landing battalions and heavy equipment to the Kreminna area to maintain the defense line;
- Russian troops used incendiary ammunition during the shelling of Maryinka;
- Ukrainian troops are concentrating a large grouping of forces west of Donetsk Oblast in the Vuhledar area, which may indicate preparations for an offensive.
Possible operation situation developments:
- Further cooling down to -20° significantly complicates combat operations;
- Russian and Ukrainian troops will continue offensive actions on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:
- to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
- to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.
The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.
- Russia keeps two warships on duty at sea. There are no Kalibr missile carriers among them. But at the same time, the Russian Navy keeps ships and submarines in Sevastopol ready to go to sea in 2-4 hours, including to launch a missile strike. These ships can have at most 32 Kalibr missiles on board.
- Two patrol boats are stationed in the waters of the Sea of Azov on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports in order to block the Azov coast.
- Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 10 sorties of enemy aircraft were recorded over the Black Sea, including the area along the “grain corridor”.
- On January 9, the enemy launched an artillery attack on a military facility in the port of Ochakiv, where many sea mines from the Second World War were stored and intended for disposal. The shooting was carried out from a self-propelled artillery installation from a position on the Kinburn spit. The mine explosion caused a significant detonation (equivalent to several tens of tons) and caused damage to residential buildings located around.
Russian operational losses from 24.02 to 10.01.22
Personnel – almost 112,470 people (+710)
Tanks – 3,084 (+4)
Armored combat vehicles – 6,154 (+7);
Artillery systems – 2,073 (+4);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 434 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 217 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,817 (+8); Aircraft – 285 (0);
Helicopters – 275 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 1,860 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 723 (0);
Boats/ships – 17 (+1).
Ukraine, general news
Since the beginning of the war, the SBU has exposed more than 600 Russian agents and spies and is investigating more than 1,500 criminal proceedings for treason and espionage. More than 340 of them have been sent to court.
International diplomatic aspect
The majority of Ukrainians (sixty-nine percent) are against peace talks with Russia on the conditions of abandoning the NATO membership idea, according to the New Europe Centre poll. Eighteen percent would choose this option, while eleven percent don’t know.
The most trusted top five politicians among Ukrainians are President of Poland Andrzej Duda (86,8%), US President Joe Biden (79,4%), President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen (73%), UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (64,2%) and President of the European Council Charles Michel (51,3%). With 49,2%, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is the seventh, and French President Emmanuel Macron (43,9%) is the tenth. The least trusted politicians are Vladimir Putin of Russia (0,6%), Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus (3%), and Xi Jinping of China (9,2%). Naturally, Andrzej Duda and Joe Biden are leading the public opinion, but surprisingly the EU leaders got ahead of those of the UK and France. Had charismatic Boris Johnson taken part in the poll, he could have been in the top three. Olaf Scholz deserves a better place on the list, but his personal position on tanks delivery (or rather the delivery of no tanks) and poor communication strategy did him a great disservice.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister said that his country is making efforts to mediate a lasting peace agreement and supports the 10-point peace plan of Volodymyr Zelensky. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu believes Russia is ready for negotiations. However, Russian officials put forward unacceptable proposals (territorial concessions) incompatible with Ukraine’s just peace formula, based on international law and restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. So, it’s rather the willingness of Ankara to spin the subject and capitalize on its diplomacy than a changing tide in Moscow that is the reason for such a statement. Similarly, Turkey is trying to boost its weight in Africa by stating that “more grain and fertilizer should be sent to developing and underdeveloped countries, to the African continent.” Turkey is one of the top destinations for wheat (15,5% or the 2nd most significant consumer after Spain) and sunflower oil (17,7% or the 2nd biggest consumer after India).
High Representative Vice-President Josep Borrell believes that the “withdrawal of Russian troops and military equipment from the entire territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders is the only serious option to restore peace and security.” He didn’t buy Russia’s “ceasefire,” which is rather an “attempt to buy time to replenish and regroup its troops or to repair its destroyed international reputation.”
German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock arrived on an unannounced visit to Kharkiv. She promised Ukraine new arms shipments and other support.
Russia, relevant news
Russia ended 2022 with a budget deficit of 3.35 trillion rubles, the Finance Ministry said. Such an annual deficit is one of the largest in the country’s history; it was larger only during the pandemic year of 2020.
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