CDS Daily brief (11.01.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russia continued attacking Ukrainian residential areas, killing 1 and injuring 6 civilians during the last day.
• Russian troops shelled a children’s hospital in Kherson, damaging the neonatal unit; an employee was injured.
• The electricity deficit has increased due to a significant temperature drop in the country’s east and center. The power system cannot cover consumption due to damage to several power plants, including the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
• 50% of Ukrainian grocery retail outlets and food chains are equipped with generators; the number will increase to 60-70% by the end of February.
• Russia is preparing a new wave of deportation of Ukrainians from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, particularly Kherson Oblast.
• Prices for goods and services in Ukraine in 2022 increased by almost 23% on average, reported the State Statistics Service.
• In 2022, Ukraine exported about 28 billion dollars of goods to the countries of the European Union, which is 4.2% more than in 2021.

Military:

• The enemy is making maximum efforts to capture Soledar, strengthen the defense on the Svatove-Kreminna frontier, and try to push Ukrainian Forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction away from the land corridor to Crimea.
• The probable departure of the Ukrainian Defence Forces units from Soledar to a previously prepared line on the prevailing heights west of the city will put Russian units in a “target” position.
• The enemy took the Bakhmut – Siversk road under fire control, significantly complicating the logistic of the Ukrainian units defending parts of Soledar. The enemy failed to surround the Defense Forces.
• In the Soledar area, the enemy is trying to completely encircle the defense area of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the city.
• The enemy is creating a grouping to capture Orihiv in order to develop a security strip for its land communications between the Rostov Region and Crimea.
• Sea: stormy weather will remain at sea till the end of the week. Russia keeps one warship on duty at sea with no Kalibr missiles. Ukrainian Defence Forces hit an enemy boat in the in the area of Belohrudyi Island, in the delta of the Dnipro River; battles for the island have been going on for several weeks. Control over the islands on the Dnipro River is important from the point of view of protecting Kherson from Russian shelling.

International:

• Lithuania delivers air defense systems and certain anti-aircraft systems; Canada will provide Ukraine with a NASAMS, while Ukrainian military personnel will start their training on the Patriot system in the US.

• With a possible UK decision to send Challenger 2 on their own and Poland gathering European coalition and readiness to provide Leopard 2 MBTs, Olaf Scholtz will find himself under mounting pressure to abandon a self-imposed restriction [on tank delivery].
• The Chair of Russia’s parliamentary committee on foreign affairs accused the German foreign minister of supporting “Nazism” in Ukraine. Meanwhile, almost half of readers of the Russian opposition website think that their compatriots support the war because they believe in Russian propaganda about fighting the “Nazis” in Ukraine.
• More than half of Russians can’t make plans for the coming months but still are relatively sure about their personal future. The most unsure group is the older people who, paradoxically, are the most supportive of the war.

Humanitarian aspect:

Russian attacks

As a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation over the past day, January 10, one civilian was killed, and 6 more were injured in Ukraine, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said with reference to the Oblast Military Administration (OMA) data.

According to the information made public by Oblast Military Administrations in the morning round-up, Russian troops attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts on January 10.

Consequences of enemy shelling as of the morning of January 10

• The occupiers shelled the territory of the Kherson Oblast 63 times, 5 wounded civilians were reported. In Kherson, an educational institution, a hospital, private and apartment buildings were attacked. The occupiers attacked the perinatal center in Kherson. A fire broke out. The blast wave blew out the windows in the children’s department and damaged one of the doctors’ offices; an employee was injured.
• Around 8:00 a.m., the Russians shelled the Znob-Novgorod community in Sumy Oblast with mortars. A residential building was damaged.
• On January 10, the Russian military shelled the civil infrastructure of the Orihiv, Hulyaipole and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Yesterday, around 11:00 p.m., the Russian occupiers shelled Kharkiv, preliminary with the Smerch anti-aircraft missile system. In the Kyiv region, a pyrotechnics warehouse was hit. During the day, the Kupyansk, Kharkiv, Chuhuyiv and Bohodukhiv districts were under enemy fire.
• Yesterday, the enemy struck in the direction of Ochakiv of Mykolayiv Oblast. Also, during the night, it shelled the territory of the Kutsurub community, firing more than 40 rockets. No victims were reported.
• On January 10, 1 civilian died in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, from enemy shelling. 1 more person was injured.
• At night, the Russians shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast three times with heavy artillery. In Marhanets, several buildings, an industrial enterprise, a gas station, a shop, a gas pipeline, and an electrical network were damaged. In Nikopol, four houses, a production workshop of a private enterprise and power lines were vandalized.

Energy system

According to NEC “Ukrenergo” on January 11, electricity consumption in Ukraine increased due to a significant temperature drop in the country’s east and center. As a result, the capacity deficit has increased. “Currently, the power system is unable to cover consumption in full due to the damage and temporary occupation by the enemy of some power plants that produce electricity, including the Zaporizhzhia NPP, the capacity of which would allow to fully cover the need for electricity,” the company stated.

Currently, 50% of retail outlets of food chains are equipped with generators; by the end of the month, 55% of stores will have alternative power sources, stated Andriy Zhuk, chairman of the board of the Association of Retailers of Ukraine (RAU), during a briefing at the Media Center Ukraine – Ukrinform. He also predicts that by the end of February, the grocery retailer will equip 60-70% of its outlets with alternative power sources. He emphasized that these figures show that the domestic business adapts very quickly to today’s challenges and is ready to invest in equipment for further work.

Liberated territories

After the liberation of Kherson, about 100,000 people returned to Mykolaiv Oblast, 50-70,000 of them to the city of Mykolaiv, stated the head of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, Vitaly Kim, at a briefing. But business activity in the region is “still very weak”. According to Kim, large and medium-sized businesses are in no hurry to return because they need time and security guarantees. As for small service enterprises, they are starting to work little by little.

Occupied territories

Deputy Prime Minister – Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories Iryna Vereshchuk said that Russia is preparing a new wave of deportation of Ukrainians from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, particularly Kherson Oblast. She called it an act of genocide and said that both those who made such decisions and those who executed them would be held responsible. “We have information that our Ukrainians are resettled in 57 regions of Russia. This is the Far East and Siberia. And indeed, we find Ukrainians in all corners of Russia. We carefully record these facts, and it is obvious that this will be the basis of the special tribunal and the basis of charges against Russia and its officials,” said Vereshchuk. At the same time, she emphasized that the [Russian] occupiers have blocked any channels for the evacuation of Ukrainians to the territory controlled by Ukraine, in particular, the checkpoint in Vasylivka is not working, and people have to leave through the temporarily occupied Crimea and through the territory of Russia to third countries, from where they can return to Ukraine.

Operational situation General conclusion:

The enemy is making maximum efforts to capture Soledar, is taking measures to strengthen the

defense on the Svatove-Kreminna frontier, and is trying to push the Defense Forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction away from the land corridor to Crimea.

Battle line:

• Defense Forces units repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Hryanykivka in Kharkiv Oblast, Stelmakhivka in Luhansk Oblast and Spirne, Rozdolivka, Vesele, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Mayorsk, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Prechystivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The enemy managed to take under fire control the T-0513 road (Bakhmut – Siversk) near Blahodatne and Sacco and Vanzetti villages, which significantly complicated the logistic provision to the units defending the central, northwestern and western parts of Soledar. The enemy failed to surround the Defense Forces.
• In the Svatove direction and the Kreminna area, two enemy assault groups from the 9th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 18th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 11th Army Corps attacked the forward positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Popiv Lis and Stelmakhivka areas; assault groups from the 752nd MRR of the 3rd MRD of the 20th Army attacked in the area southeast of Makiyivka.
• In the direction of Shipylivka – Bilohorivka, the enemy brought into battle units of the 206th rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve of the 2nd AC to the defense lane of the 7th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 2nd AC. They jointly conducted an unsuccessful attack on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The enemy is trying to ensure the stability of its defense in the Kreminna and Lysychansk areas.

Enemy disposition:

• Starting from January 4, the enemy began an active regrouping of the airborne battalion of the 11th separate airborne assault brigade and four BTGs of the 37th SMRBr, 5th separate tank brigade from the reserve of the 58th Army to the area of Mykhailivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and in the direction of Tokmak.
• Units of the 10th tank regiment of the 6th MRD of the 3rd AC were moved from the Kuzemivka area to the Svatove direction in the Stara Krasnyanka area (between Kreminna and Rubizhne) in anticipation of a possible Ukrainian Defence Forces attack from the southwest direction.

Escalation indicators:

• In the Soledar area, the enemy is trying to completely encircle the defense area of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the city by advancing in the direction of Krasnopolivka (from the north) and Krasna Hora – Paraskoviivka (from the south);
• The enemy is creating a grouping to capture Orihiv in order to develop a security strip for its land communications between the Rostov Region and Crimea. Another option for using these troops may be strengthening the defense in the Vasylivka and Tokmak areas.

Possible operational situation developments:

• The Russian command will increase its efforts in the Soledar area and will try to capture the city as soon as possible with the help of the mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC and the Airborne Forces of the Russian Armed Forces;

• The probable departure of the Ukrainian Defence Forces units from Soledar to a previously prepared line on the prevailing heights west of the city will put Russian units in a “target” position.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• By the end of the week, stormy weather will remain at sea. Russia keeps one warship on duty at sea; it does not carry Kalibr missiles. But at the same time, the Russian Navy keeps ships and submarines in Sevastopol ready to go to sea in 2-4 hours, including to launch a missile strike. These ships can have at most 32 Kalibr missiles on board.
• Two patrol boats are stationed in the waters of the Sea of Azov on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports in order to block the Azov coast.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 14 sorties of the enemy’s aircraft were recorded over the Black Sea, including the area along the “grain corridor”.
• In the delta of the Dnipro River, in the area of Belohrudyi Island, the defense forces of the Tavria direction hit an enemy boat with artillery. Bilohrudyi Island is located not far from Kherson and is adjacent to Velykyi Potyomkinsky Island, for which battles between Ukrainian and Russian troops have been going on for several weeks. Ukrainian reconnaissance battalion are trying to gain a foothold on Velykyi Potyomkinsky, while Russian troops are trying to knock them out and constantly shell them. Control over the islands on the Dnipro River is important from the point of view of protecting Kherson from Russian shelling.
• “Grain initiative”. Ukraine plans to expand the terms of the “grain corridor” agreement to several ports. The issue of expanding the operation was raised even before the end of the first four-month period. This was discussed by the Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar. “We are interested in expanding ports, including primarily the ports of Mykolaiv and ports near it, as well as, possibly later, the ports of Kherson and ports that will be liberated in other territories of Ukraine,” he said.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 11.01.2023

Personnel – almost 112,960 people (+490)

Tanks – 3,094 (+10)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,159 (+5);

Artillery systems – 2,078 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 437 (+3); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 217 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,826 (+9); Aircraft – 285 (0);

Helicopters – 275 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,862 (+2); Intercepted cruise missiles – 723 (0);

Boats/ships – 17 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Prices for goods and services in Ukraine in 2022 increased by almost 23% on average, reported the State Statistics Service. The growth of consumer prices last year for vegetables amounted to 68.5%, fish and fish products – by 30.3%, bread and bread products – by 29.7%. Prices for food products, in general, increased by 27.1%, and for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products – by 17.4%.

In 2022, Ukraine exported about 28 billion dollars of goods to the countries of the European Union, which is 4.2% more than in 2021, reported the press service of the Ministry of Economy. Minister of Economy of Ukraine, Yuliya Svyridenko, noted that this is extremely important because of the diversification of logistics routes. This is exactly the task Ukraine is set for the future, particularly with the Recovery Plan. “Ukraine will expand land transport corridors and exports to the EU and, accordingly, will be less dependent on sea exports even after the unblocking and return of all ports. And, of course, this is important in view of further economic integration into the EU markets, Ukraine’s involvement in European value-added chains.”

According to the Ministry of Economy calculations, Ukraine’s dynamics of foreign trade indicators in 2023 will be formed in the direction of the gradual recovery of the losses incurred in 2022. The budget for 2023 envisages a 7.2% increase in the export of goods and services. This is taking into account the situation that has developed in the production complex, with access to three ports on the Black Sea to export agricultural products, the gradual expansion of domestic demand, the demand for IT services in the world, etc.

International diplomatic aspect

“Today I brought good news for Ukraine – we are handing over air defense systems and certain anti-aircraft systems that should help you in the fight [against the Russian aggression],” Lithuanian President said at a joint press conference with presidents of Ukraine and Poland in Lviv. “This is the first Canadian donation of an air-defense system to Ukraine,” Defense Minister Anita Anand said after the announcement of a decision to buy a NASAMS for Ukraine. Meanwhile, about a hundred Ukrainian military personnel will head to Fort Sill in Oklahoma next week to begin training on the Patriot missile defense system.

“I think that the German government also understands somewhere deep in its soul that this decision will be approved, and the tanks will be given to Ukraine,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said during a mini press conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her surprise visit to Kharkiv. Chancellor Olaf Scholtz will find himself under mounting pressure on the Leopard 2 MBT delivery issue, with Poland announcing its readiness to send Ukraine a company of Leopard 2 tanks within the European coalition of willing that is being formed. With a decision to send a handful of Challenger 2, the UK may set a precedent that will make it difficult for Olaf Scholtz to defend his self-drawn redline on no tanks for Ukraine policy.

Annalena Baerbock “unfortunately cannot conceal her sympathy for the reincarnation of Nazism in the Ukrainian project and its clearly nostalgic notes,” head of the foreign affairs committee of Russian Parliament Leonid Slutsky wrote.

Almost half of the respondents (46,9%) asked by the opposition website Kasparov.Ru think their compatriots support the war because they believe in the Russian propaganda narrative about fighting the “Nazis” in Ukraine. The Kremlin made up “Nazis in Ukraine” simulacra and not only fooled the “ordinary” Russians with it but also got to believe in it as well.

More than half of Russians don’t know what will happen to them in the coming months (the figure has been on the rise since 2016 when it was at 37%), while a third may have plans for the next year or two (on the decline since 2018, when it was at 40%), according to a Levada Centre poll. Only eleven percent of Russians may plan for the next five-six years, and seven percent for an even more extended timeframe. In the meantime, more than half of Russians (52%) are relatively sure about their personal future, while forty-four percent are anxious about the future. Paradoxically, the most unsure about the coming months’ group is 40-54 and 55+ years old (54% and 58%, respectively), the same groups that support the war the most (71% and 79%, respectively).

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