CDS Daily brief (15.01.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Emergency services worked all day at the site of a Russian missile attack on an apartment building in Dnipro. At the moment, 30 dead are known, 75 people are injured, and the fate of more than 30 residents is unknown. Debris removal continues. The residential building was hit with one of the five Kh-22 missiles launched yesterday by Russia at Ukraine. Using such a weapon on targets in densely populated areas is clearly a war crime. Russians used this type of missile to shell the Kremenchuk shopping mall in June 2022, when 20 Ukrainian civilians died.
• The generation deficit in the power system after the attack is significant, and a number of TPPs are not working due to serious damage.
• In Kherson, a building where representatives of the Red Cross work, a children’s rehabilitation center, residential buildings, and a critical infrastructure facility came under fire.

Military:

• The enemy continues its attempts to take control of the Donetsk Oblast within its administrative border.
• The structure and method of the January 14 missile and air strike indicate the Russian military command’s search for ways to overcome Ukrainian air defense.
• The enemy does not stop attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, which may indicate the preparation of the Russian Federation for a protracted conflict, the so-called “war of attrition”.
• Russia has increased the number of ships at sea to 16, including six missile carriers and one submarine. They can carry up to 44 Kalibrs, but considering those spent in the attack on January 14, the current number is about three dozen.

International:

• The UK sends fourteen Challenger 2 tanks and around thirty AS90s 155mm howitzers. The PM stressed the “need for an international strategy to break the stalemate” and is accelerating the UK’s diplomatic and military support to Ukraine in the weeks ahead in a bid to “push Russia further back and secure a lasting peace.”
• Leopard MBTs might be delivered to Ukraine by 2024 at the earliest, for they require a lot of money and time for repair. However, the problem has a solution in the form of a coalition, given that the major owners of Leopards (Spain, Poland, and Finland) have already voiced their readiness to help Ukraine.

Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of January 15, 2023, more than 1,348 Ukrainian children have suffered as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 454 children have died, and more than 894 were injured.

The aftermath of yesterday’s Russian rocket attack on a multi-apartment building in Dnipro:

• Three days of mourning were announced in Dnipro. The rescue operation continues. As of 6 p.m. January 15, State Emergency Service reported that
  • 39 people (including 6 children) were rescued [from the rubbles],
  • 29 people died (including 1 child), [upd: 30 people died],
  • 75 people were injured (including 14 children),
  • 44 reports of missing persons have been received (of which 11 persons have been established, and the fate of 33 persons is unknown).
• Commenting on the Dnipro tragedy, the AFU Air Force commander, Gen Mykola Oleschuk, stated that the residential building was hit with one of the five Kh-22 missiles launched yesterday by Russia at Ukraine. The weight of its warhead is about 950 kg. The maximum range is up to 600 km. Since the beginning of Russia’s military aggression, more than 210 missiles of this type have been launched on the territory of Ukraine. “None of them was shot down by anti-aircraft missiles because the Armed Forces do not have weapons capable of shooting down this type of missile. Only the anti-aircraft missile systems that Ukraine may receive from Western partners in the future (we are talking about such systems as the Patriot PAC-3 or SAMP-T) are capable of intercepting these air targets.”
• The Prosecutor General’s Office reported, “This type of missile leads to the greatest human casualties because the missile is extremely inaccurate and has a huge deviation. Therefore, using such a weapon on targets in densely populated areas is clearly a war crime. This type of missile was applied in Serhiyivka and Kremenchuk [the “Amstor” shopping mall shelling in June 2022, 20 civilians died]. It can be launched by a single Russian unit – the 52nd Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment”.

Russian attacks

As a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation over the past day, January 14, 26 Ukrainian civilians were killed, and 81 more were injured [information as of the morning Jan 15], Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said with reference to the Oblast Military Administration (OMA) data. According to the information made public by OMAs in the morning round-up, Russian troops attacked 14 Ukrainian Oblasts on January 14.

• In Kyiv Oblast, 28 private houses and one critical infrastructure object were damaged due to a missile attack on January 14. There were no casualties recorded.
• In Chernihiv Oblast, Russian troops fired mortars and grenade launchers at night.
• In Sumy Oblast, the Russians launched 63 strikes on the border territories over the past day. A 63-year-old man was wounded, two private houses were completely destroyed, and two more were damaged.

• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian troops shelled civilian infrastructure over the past day. In total, 16 reports of destruction due to Russian shelling of citizens’ houses (apartments) and infrastructure facilities were received.
• In Vinnytsia Oblast, the enemy attack hit a critical infrastructure facility. A fire broke out as a result of the impact. No victims or injured were reported.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a rescue operation is underway after a rocket attack on the city of Dnipro. In Marhanets hromada, an enemy fire damaged the power line that supplies the pumping station of the water utility. More than 60,000 households remained without water. As a result of the January 14 rocket strike, about 50 houses, a school, a kindergarten and an administrative building were destroyed in Kryvyi Rih, the head of the Kryvyi Rih OMA Oleksandr Vilkul reported
• The Russian invaders launched two rocket attacks on an energy infrastructure facility in Lviv Oblast. One missile was shot down.
• In Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast yesterday afternoon, two critical infrastructure objects were hit. Two enemy missiles were shot down by air defense forces.
• Enemy rocket attacks on critical infrastructure in the Kharkiv and Chuhuyiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast were recorded yesterday morning. Emergency power outages were used in the Oblast.
• Seven people died, and four were injured in Donetsk Oblast during the day.
• Four enemy cruise missiles were shot down by anti-aircraft defense in the Odesa Oblast yesterday. One of the missiles hit a critical infrastructure facility, causing damage.

Today, the Russians shelled Kherson all day. Preliminary, seven people are wounded. The Russian military fired at the premises where Red Cross operates, a rehabilitation center for children with disabilities, private and apartment buildings, and a critical infrastructure facility. Enemy shells also fell near the student dormitory, stated the Head of Kherson OMA, Yaroslav Yarushevich.

Energy system

As of 11:00 a.m. on January 15, the energy infrastructure is being restored after Russia’s 12th missile strike, and repair work is ongoing at all facilities damaged by shelling. Power consumption limits are reduced proportionally for all areas, NEC “Ukrenergo” reported.

The generation deficit in the power system after the attack is significant, and a number of TPPs are not working due to serious damage, said the general director of YASNO energy company, Serhiy Kovalenko. “All energy companies are working on restoration, but we need to be prepared for the fact that outages can be lengthy.”

Operational situation

General conclusion: the enemy continues its attempts to take control of the Donetsk Oblast within its administrative border.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Makiyivka, Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Bilohorivka, Sil, Soledar, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, Vodyane, Mayorsk, Maryinka of Donetsk Oblast.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces took control of a part of Novoselivske village. The 26th tank regiment of the 47th tank division of the Russian Armed Forces conducted a series of unsuccessful counterattacks but could not regain the lost positions, suffering significant losses.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces have reached the outskirts of Kreminna, where they are fighting intense battles with units of the 76th air assault division.
• The units of the Russian Airborne Forces and the “Wagner” PMC continued their offensive from Soledar in the western and northwestern directions; the fighting continued along the line Krasnopolivka – Sil – Blahodatne – Krasna Hora – Paraskoviivka. Units of the AFU 46th and 77th separate airborne brigades hold their positions with the support of the 17th separate tank brigade and 45th separate artillery brigade.
• Units of the enemy 106th airborne division, with the support of the assault units of the “Wagner” PMC, are trying to advance from Opytne to the southern outskirts of Bakhmut.

Enemy disposition: No changes in the disposition were noted.

Escalation indicators:

• The structure and method of the January 14 missile and air strike indicate the Russian military command’s search for ways to overcome Ukrainian air defense.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy does not stop attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, which may indicate the preparation of the Russian Federation for a protracted conflict, the so-called “war of attrition”.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• The stormy weather has subsided somewhat. Russia has increased the number of ships on duty at sea to 16, including six missile carriers and one submarine. The number of Kalibrs on them can reach 44 units, but considering those spent the day before [in the Jan 14 massive attack], there are about three dozen.

• In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, 2 patrol boats are located with the purpose of blocking the Azov coast.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 16 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.

• “Grain initiative”. 11 vessels with 313.5 thousand tons of agricultural products immediately left the ports of “Great Odesa” on Friday after three days of bad weather, when there was no movement of vessels. Three bulkers are heading to African countries at once: Lady Litel with 31,000 tons of wheat for Libya, East Wind 1 with 25,000 tons for Tunisia, and Lady Hatice with 11,000 tons of food for Morocco. The bulk carrier Antheia, chartered by the UN World Food Program for the delivery of Ukrainian wheat to Afghanistan, docked in the port of Chornomorsk.
• Currently, 17 ships are being processed in the “grain initiative” ports, and more than 519,000 tons of Ukrainian agricultural products are loaded. Five more vessels are moving along the “grain corridor” for loading.
• In the Bosphorus, there are already 104 vessels waiting for inspection by the Joint Coordination Center, while on January 10, there were 98, and on December 26 – 95. At least 12 inspections per day must be carried out for continuous movement along the grain corridor.
• Since August 1, 644 vessels have left the ports of Greater Odessa, exporting 17.3 million tons of food.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 15.01.2023

Personnel – almost 115,290 people (+630)

Tanks – 3,106 (+2)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,183 (+10);

Artillery systems – 2,094 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 437 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 219 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,846 (+0); Aircraft – 286 (0);

Helicopters – 276 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,872 (+5); Intercepted cruise missiles – 749 (+26);

Boats/ships – 17 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

The UK has announced the transfer of fourteen Challenger 2 tanks and around thirty AS90s 155mm howitzers (a third that the British Forces possess themselves!). With the first delivery of Western-made tanks, the UK sets a precedent. But of no less importance is AS90 systems that will significantly strengthen the UAF. The Prime Minister stressed the “need for an international strategy to break the stalemate” and is accelerating the UK’s diplomatic and military support to

Ukraine in the weeks ahead in a bid to “push Russia further back and secure a lasting peace.” While the Foreign Secretary is tasked to travel to the US and discuss how to “galvanize further international action,” the Defence Secretary is heading to Estonia and Germany to “ensure the surge of global military support is as strategic and coordinated as possible.”

Leopard MBTs might be delivered to Ukraine by 2024 at the earliest, Armin Papperger, the CEO of Rheinmetall, told the Bild. The Rheinmetall has at its deposits twenty-two Leopard 2 and eighty-eight Leopard 1 MBTs that require a lot of time and several hundreds of euros to spend before they’re ready to be delivered elsewhere. In this light, the Polish initiative of gathering a coalition is crucial. Besides wavering Germany, which possesses the most significant number of Leopards (more than 370 various types), Poland (almost 250 MBTs), Spain (327 MBTs), and Finland (around 200 MBTs, including 100 in older types in storage) voiced their readiness to supply Leopards to Ukraine.

Russia, relevant news

According to Gulagu.net, former Wagner commander Andrei Medvedev fled Russia to Norway and requested political asylum there. Allegedly, he is ready to testify against Prigozhin and talk about the extrajudicial killings he witnessed.

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