CDS Daily brief (19.01.23) | CDS comments on key events

Download in PDF

---

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The official death toll in the Russian missile impact on a residential high-rise building in Dnipro [Jan 14] increased to 46 people.
• On January 18, Russian attacks impacted 8 oblasts of Ukraine and injured eight civilians.
• The Russian occupation forces provoked an environmental disaster in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast by damaging the Kakhovska HPP; the damage amounts to UAH 105 million.
• Since 2014, Ukraine has ranked first in the world in terms of the volume of mined territory.

Military:

• General conclusion: The deployment of four enemy BTGs in Svatove and Chervonopopivka areas indicates the preparation for the enemy offensive on Makiyivka; during the last two days, the enemy has been trying to expand its offensive in Bakhmut and Soledar areas.
• Escalation indicators: the enemy is increasing its activity on the islands in the Dnipro delta, with the forces of 7-8 divisions, regularly shelling the objects on the right bank; the RF Airborne Forces is deploying an operational group in the Rostov-on-Don area with the task of C2 and logistic support of the Russian Airborne Forces units, deployed to the Lyman, Bakhmut and Novopavlivka directions. An Airborne Forces combat capability restoration area is likely being created in Rostov-on-Don.
• Possible operation situation developments: the enemy will continue trying to capture Bakhmut; enemy offensive actions should be expected in the Svatove and Lyman areas; enemy activity in the Dnipro delta will increase to keep Kherson under fire control.

Grain initiative:

• Since October, Russia has purposefully sabotaged the inspection of grain carriers in the Bosphorus, resulting in a consistently long queue of over 100 vessels. The Russian side reduced the number of inspection teams from 5 to 3 without any explanation and artificially increased the inspection outside JCC regulations.
• As of January 18, 121 vessels are awaiting inspection in the Bosphorus (28 with agricultural products on board and 93 vessels going to ports for loading). The average waiting time is two to five weeks, leading to millions in losses for cargo owners.

International:

• The European Parliament voted a resolution to establish a special tribunal to punish Putin and others guilty of the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
• The Tallinn Pledge united nine countries in their commitment to “collectively pursue delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defense, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s defense.”
• The US is about to announce an around $2.5 billion package of defense assistance that would include, for the first time, nearly a hundred Stryker combat vehicles.

• Hungary has blocked the 7th tranche of the European Peace Facility arms support, and the German Bundestag has failed to vote on Leopards for Ukraine, though it redirected the decision to a Special Committee for the Review.
• Sergey Lavrov once again infuriated the Israelis, comparing the Western governments’ support for Ukraine to Hitler’s Final Solution.

General/Humanitarian aspect:

According to updated information, 46 people died in Dnipro due to a rocket attack by Russians on January 14. 11 people have not yet been identified, and the same number remain missing. 80 people were injured. 24 victims remain under medical supervision in city hospitals. Three are in serious condition, including a 9-year-old girl, head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration (OMA), Valentyn Reznichenko, reported.

Russian attacks

As a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation during the day on January 18, eight civilians were injured, heads of respective OMAs reported. Russian troops attacked nine oblasts of Ukraine.

Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of January 19, according to OMAs

• Russian occupiers attacked Kherson Oblast 56 times on January 18, 4 people were wounded. In Kherson, enemy shells hit an educational institution and residential buildings. On January 19, they again shelled the center of Kherson, hitting a residential quarter with anti-aircraft missiles. The Russian attack caused a fire. No victims were reported.
• On January 18, the enemy carried out artillery strikes on the water area and coastal strip of the Ochakiv community in Mykolyiv Oblast. There were no casualties.
• At night, the Russians targeted the Matviivska community of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The S- 300 rocket fell into a field, and its explosion blew out all the windows in a local educational institution and nearby buildings. During the past day, the enemy shelled the Orikhiv, Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhia and Vasylivka districts. In total, there were 153 shellings.
• On January 18, the Russians shelled Vuhledar of Donetsk Oblast; 6 houses were damaged. The night before, the Russians targeted a kindergarten in Orlyivka, and in the morning, they shelled Vesele and Krasnohorivka. 1 injured civilian is recorded in Ivanivske, Bakhmut community, 2 houses and an administrative building were damaged. 1 more house was damaged in Pleschiivka. Constant shelling of the Soledar community continues.
• In Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, a residential building and a private enterprise were damaged due to shelling. In Vovchansk, Chuhuyiv district, the enemy fired at two two- story apartment buildings. There was a hit on the outpatient clinic. 5 private houses were damaged in Vilcha village. There was an enemy impact at the “Vovchansk Geriatric Boarding House”. The windows of the building were damaged, as well as at the kindergarten.
• At night, the Russians shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. No victims were reported. Private houses and commercial buildings were damaged.

Energy system

President Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting with the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, who is on a working visit to Ukraine. President Zelensky emphasized the need for the presence of IAEA inspectors at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. He welcomed the placement of agency inspectors at Ukrainian nuclear power plants and expressed hope that such IAEA missions will prevent further attacks on Ukrainian nuclear power plants by the Russian Federation. Zelensky separately emphasized the importance of demilitarizing the ZNPP station and withdrawing all representatives of Russia from it, without exception, and stressed that Ukraine would continue discussing this issue exclusively with the IAEA.

Environment

The Russian occupation forces provoked an environmental disaster in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast by damaging the Kakhovska HPP; the damage amounts to UAH 105 million, the Zaporizhzhia regional military administration reported. “Due to the hostilities and terrorist activities of the occupying forces, it is impossible to plan and carry out any repair and restoration work at the Kakhovska HPP… The discovered facts have all the signs of a crime against the environment. The aggressor country must answer for them in full,” Zaporizhzhia OMA press service reported.

Zaporizhzhia OMA has already turned to the Ukraine’s State Agency of Water Resources with a request to consider the issue of a significant reduction of water in the Kakhovsk Reservoir and to determine possible measures to minimize damage to the environment and the economy. In addition, the mass death of aquatic biological resources can lead to unwanted outbreaks of infections in the Dnipro coast towns and villages. In the worst-case scenario, the dead fish can end up in spontaneous markets, threatening citizens’ health.

Mines

Since 2014, Ukraine has ranked first in the world in terms of the volume of mined territory, according to the General Staff representative Andriy Rudyk. He noted that “one of the manifestations of this is Russia’s massive and chaotic use of mines and improvised explosive devices prohibited by the Convention on Specific Types of Conventional Weapons of 1980. Although Russia is a party to this document and has assumed the obligations stipulated by it.” He said that Russians set the mine traps, putting on them objects that arouse a person’s interest (in particular a child) and encouraging the person to pick it up. “These facts are a violation of the Fourth International Treaty, The 1997 Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on Their Destruction, which obligates member states to never, under any circumstances, use anti-personnel mines; the provisions of the third treaty — the 1980 Convention on the Prohibition or Restriction of the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Considered to Cause Excessive Injuries or to Have an Indiscriminate Effect; Protocol II “On the prohibition or restriction of the use of mines, landmines and other devices”.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• The deployment of four enemy BTGs from the reserve of the 1st tank army in the areas of Svatove and Chervonopopivka indicates the preparation of the enemy offensive on Makiyivka;
• During the last two days, the enemy has been trying to expand the front of its offensive as much as possible in Bakhmut and Soledar areas, for which it is transferring reserves to the area.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Terny, Verkhnyokamianske, Soledar, Sil, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Kurdyumivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Paraskoviivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The enemy forces with reinforced companies of the 9th motorized rifle regiment (MRR) of the 18th motorized rifle division (MRD) of the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet regularly and unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kuzemivka-Novoselivske and Kuzemivka-Stelmakhivka directions. This allows the enemy to restrain the actions of the Ukrainian troops.
• The enemy is trying to develop an offensive in the direction of Lyman and the Chornyi Zherebets River, attacking in the Ploschanka-Makiyivka, Chervonopopiivka-Nevske, and Kreminna-Dibrova directions.

Enemy disposition:

• The enemy moved the C2 post of the 20th Army of the Western Military District from Rohove village to the Danylivka-Novoderkul district, taking it outside the HIMARS reach zone. At the same time, the C2 post of the 1st tank army was moved precisely to the Rohove village.
• The 252nd MRR of the 3rd MRD and the 488th MRR of the 144th MRD strengthen the first line of defense by deploying four BTGs in Svatove and Chervonopopivka areas. On the northern outskirts of Kolomyichikha, the 5th BARS detachment was concentrated to reinforce the 423rd MRR of the 4th tank division, which is conducting the defense in the direction of Stelmakhivka – Svatove.
• Units of the 331st parachute airborne regiment (PAR) of the 98th airborne division (AD) arrived in the rear areas of the 144th MRD and the 55th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 41st Army.
• Units of the 217th PAR of the 98th AD deployed in the Bakhmut direction. This indicates the decentralized use [of 98th AD], due to the lack of other combat-ready reserves.

Escalation indicators:

• Units of the enemy 2nd MRD, which was restoring combat capability in the Republic of Belarus, arrived in the Pokrovsk district;
• In the Bakhmut area, units of the enemy 106th AD, 57th SMRBr, and detachments of the “Wagner” PMC were put into battle; units of the 217th PAR of the 98th AD are concentrated in the same area;

• The enemy is increasing its activity on the islands in the Dnipro delta, with the forces of 7-8 divisions regularly shelling the objects on the right bank;
• In the Rostov-on-Don area, the command of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is deploying an operational group with the task of managing and logistic support of the Airborne Forces units, actively transferred to the Lyman, Bakhmut and Novopavlivka directions from near Kherson. An Airborne Forces combat capability restoration area is likely being created here [in Rostov-on-Don]

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will continue to try to capture Bakhmut;
• Enemy offensive actions should be expected in the area of Svatove and Lyman;
• The enemy’s activity in the Dnipro delta will increase to keep the city of Kherson under fire control.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• There are 9 enemy warships and 2 submarines at sea. Of them – 6 Kalibr cruise missile carriers (including two submarines). The possible number of Kalibr missiles on board is up to 40 units.
• In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, 2 patrol boats are located with the purpose of blocking the Azov coast.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 19 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
• Grain initiative. Since October, Russia has purposefully sabotaged the inspection of grain carriers in the Bosphorus, resulting in a consistently long queue of over 100 vessels. Because of this, Ukraine exports 3 million tons less than it could through seaports. As soon as the volume of exports began to grow, the Russian side reduced the number of inspection teams from 5 to 3 without any explanation. They artificially increase the inspection time by checking the performance indicators of the vessels, which are not regulated by the JCC documents and have nothing to do with the “grain agreement”. Thus, it takes more than 4 hours to inspect one vessel, and 5-7 inspections occur daily, with the minimum required 16-18.

• In addition, there were cases when the Russians refused to work for invented reasons when all other JCC parties confirmed the conditions for the continuation of the inspection.
• The problem could be solved by increasing inspection groups and the number of inspections per day. In November, when more than 200 ships were delayed in the Bosphorus, the UN and Turkey independently conducted 86 inspections in two days and proved them effective.
• As of January 18, 121 vessels are awaiting inspection in the Bosphorus (28 with agricultural products on board and 93 vessels going to ports for loading). The average waiting time is two to five weeks, leading to millions in losses for cargo owners. Almost 2 million tons of agricultural products were under-exported in October. This trend also persists in January.
• In total, since the start of the “grain corridor” on August 1, 17.8 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products were exported from Odesa ports on 659 ships to 40 countries worldwide.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.01.23

Personnel – almost 118,530 people (+760)

Tanks – 3,136 (+6)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,235 (+10);

Artillery systems – 2,122 (+14);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 442 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 220 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,896 (+7); Aircraft – 287 (0);

Helicopters – 277 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,882 (+6); Intercepted cruise missiles – 749 (0);

Boats/ships – 17 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

The European Parliament overwhelmingly voted (aye – 472, nay – 19, abstained – 33) for a resolution calling to set up a special tribunal to punish for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Though modalities of the tribunal remain to be worked out, the MEPs emphasized the necessity to ensure its jurisdiction over Russian and Belarusian political leadership, including Vladimir Putin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

The Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, and the United Kingdom have committed to “collectively pursuing the delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defense, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s defense.” The Tallinn Pledge proceeds from the understanding that “the new level of required combat power is only achieved by combinations of main battle tank squadrons, beneath air and missile defense, operating alongside divisional artillery groups, and further deep precision fires enabling targeting of Russian logistics and command nodes in occupied territory.”

Denmark will deliver nineteen Caesar self-propelled howitzers. Estonia will supply Ukraine with

€113 million worth of assistance, including dozens of 155-mm and 122-mm howitzers and trucks for them, over a hundred Carl Gustaf anti-tank weapons, and thousands of shells for various systems. Latvia donates tens of Stingers and additional air-defense elements, two M-17 helicopters, tens of machine guns with ammunition, several tens of UAVs, and spare parts for M109 howitzers. Lithuania commits dozens of L-70 anti-aircraft guns with tens of thousands of ammunition, and two Mi-8 helicopters, anti-drones, drones, optics, thermo-visual devices, and more. The new Polish package consists of S-60 anti-aircraft guns with 70,000 pieces of ammunition. Several countries of the Tallinn Pledge are ready to deliver MBTs should Germany unblock the process. In addition to a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks, the United Kingdom will provide AS90 self-propelled 155mm guns, more than two hundred armored and protected vehicles; dozens more UAVs, additional 100,000 artillery rounds; hundreds more sophisticated missiles including GMLRS rockets, Starstreak air defense missiles, and medium range air defense missiles, 600 Brimstone anti-tank munitions. Separately, Sweden donates CV90 IFVs, Archer self- propelled howitzers, and NLAW ATGMs.

The Biden Administration is set to finalize a $2.5 billion package of defense assistance. The package would include fifty more armored Bradley IFVs and, for the first time, nearly a hundred Stryker combat vehicles. “To enable the Ukrainians to break through given Russian defenses [fortified forward line of troops], the emphasis has been shifted to enabling them to combine fire and maneuver in a way that will prove to be more effective,” Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said after visiting Kyiv. However, talking about Abrams MBTs, he said that “It may or may not be the right system.”

In the meantime, Hungary has blocked the 7th tranche of the European Peace Facility arms support for Ukraine worth about half a billion euros, according to the Polish media. The German Bundestag has failed to vote on the Transfer of Leopard 2 MBTs to Ukraine but redirected the decision to a Special Committee for Review.

The European Jewish Congress has expressed shock and concern following Sergey Lavrov’s comparing Western governments’ support for Ukraine to Hitler’s Final Solution. “This is Holocaust distortion at its most basic level, and we call on Mr Lavrov to unequivocally apologize and withdraw these comments,” EJC President Ariel Muzicant said. It’s not the first time Russia’s top diplomat offended the Jewish people with inappropriate language. Back in May, Sergey Lavrov said, “I could be wrong, but Hitler also had Jewish blood. [That Zelensky is Jewish] means absolutely nothing. Wise Jewish people say that the most ardent anti-Semites are usually Jews.” The Israeli government publicized that Vladimir Putin made the apology in a call with Israeli PM Naftali Bennett.

---

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 and are involved in security studies, defence policy research and advocacy. Currently all our activity is focused on stopping the ongoing war.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email to cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are independent, non-government, non-partisan and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent