CDS Daily brief (20.01.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Ukraine’s government priorities, according to PM Shmyhal, are: the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU, the creation of a special international tribunal to punish Russian war criminals, the confiscation of Russian assets for the restoration of Ukraine.
• A government commission was formed to investigate the January 18 helicopter crash that killed the Interior Ministry leadership. Its report is expected within a month.
• As of January 20, 2023, 345 children in Ukraine are missing, 13,916 are deported, 9,103 have been found, and 126 have been returned.
• Russian forces have deported more  than 2 million Ukrainians from the  temporarily occupied territories since the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• The Russian occupying authorities cannot start generating units of the Zaporizhzhia NPP due to the lack of personnel.

Military:

• Battles of local significance continue in the areas of Svatove, Kreminna, Soledar, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Avdiivka.
• The capture of Klishchiivka will allow the Russian troops to cut the Kostyantynivka – Bakhmut highway (# T0504) and threaten the Joint Forces in Chasiv Yar.
• Russian forces continue to use incendiary munitions against civilian infrastructure.
• Possible operation situation developments: Due to the lack of preparation of the Russian grouping in Belarus and the lack of preparation of the Russian defense industry to provide it with the required number of weapons and military equipment, the [next] invasion of Ukraine is probably not going to take place before the end of 2023.
• Sea: Il-76MD military transport planes [purposed for delivering military equipment and ammunition] have been arriving at the Crimea “Dzhankoy” military airfield from the central part of the Russian Federation during the last week; Velykyi Potyomkinsky and Bilohrudy islands [Kherson Oblast] remain in the so-called “grey zone”, from which the Russian forces attack Kherson residential neighborhoods with artillery and mortar fire.

International:

• The CIA Director visited Kyiv to share assessments of Russia’s further actions.
• Ukraine’s President called on the Defense Consultative Group to turn its meeting into a “tank Ramstein” and the next one into “F16s and long-range missiles’ Ramstein.” The US Defense Secretary called on the partners to “dig deeper” into their stocks to support Ukraine. Germany has derailed hopes for the “tank Ramstein,” making new excuses but leaving some hope.
• The Poles criticized the Germans’ “fundamental problem” with sending tanks to Ukraine and threatened to go alone without permission.
• The US Defense Secretary warns that Russia is “regrouping, recruiting and trying to reequip.” The German fear of an escalation leads to the escalation from the Russian side, leaving Ukraine weaker than it could have been.

• The Kadyrovites decided to copycat the “Ramstein” and launch the production of “Jihad vehicles.”
• Story to follow: The world’s largest oil field service company SLB has stepped up its business in Russia after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, contributing to the Russian ability to continue its aggression. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/slb-wins- russia-business-oilfield-rivals-exit-after-ukraine-invasion-2023-01-19/

Humanitarian aspect:

According to the state child search portal “Children of War” as a result of the Russian aggression, as of January 20, 2023, 345 children in Ukraine are missing, 13,916 are deported [by Russians], 9,103 have been found, and 126 have been returned.

Russian attacks

January 19 was marked by intensive Russian shelling in several areas. Over the past day, 5 Ukrainian civilians were killed, and 6 more were injured due to Russia’s armed aggression. In particular:

• According to the head of Zaporizhzhia OMA, Oleksandr   Starukh, Zaporizhzhia Oblast experienced another “record” of enemy attacks – 224 shellings affecting 21 towns and villages in the last day alone. 34 civilian objects were ruined.
• On January 19, the Russian military shelled Kherson Oblast 90 times, one person was killed, and three others were wounded. The city of Kherson was shelled 19 times; the Russian forces attacked the city’s residential quarters.
• Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Avdiyivka and other towns and villages were shelled in Donetsk Oblast. A kindergarten, a boarding school and private residences were damaged. In one day, there were 4 dead and 3 wounded civilians in Donetsk Oblast.
• The situation in Luhansk Oblast remained tense.
• Heads of Kharkiv, Sumy and Mykolayiv Oblast also reported Russian shelling and small UAV attacks without victims of significant damage.

Energy system

• Although the deficit in the Ukrainian energy system remains significant, it has slightly decreased. Electricity production increased due to the completion of the repair of one of the CHP units, a slight increase in generation at other CHPs and HPPs, and “green” generation from renewable energy sources. In the evening peak, generation can cover a little more than three-quarters of consumption, NEC “Ukrenergo” explained. However, the company also stressed that the repair takes more time with each attack and gets more complicated. So far, Ukraine’s energy system has survived 12 enemy missile attacks and 14 UAV strikes on energy facilities.
• In addition, more than 10 GW of the main installed capacities are currently inaccessible to the Ukrainian energy system and are under the control of the enemy. Most of the wind and solar power plants are also located in the temporarily occupied territories of the south.
• According to “Energoatom”, the occupying authorities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast cannot start any generating units of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. One of the reasons is the lack of personnel.

The company illegally formed by the Russian Federation to run the station banned entry to its facilities to 1500 Ukrainian employees who refused to sign a contract with it and to take Russian passports. Illegal Russian management currently tries to bring personnel from the Russian Federation and put them into confiscated apartments, but still does not have sufficient personnel. In addition, some of the equipment is not operational because the occupiers failed to provide it with proper maintenance and keep the required temperature. At the same time, they continue to build fortifications around the power units of the Zaporizhzhia NPP and the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel in violation of nuclear safety norms.

• Electricity supply was fully restored in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, liberated from the Russian invaders in September 2022. However, the work took a lot of time because the territory needed to be demined first and the demining was delayed by weather conditions, the press service of JSC “Kharkivoblenergo” reported.

International tribunal for Russian war crimes

Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said after a conversation with the Italian Foreign Affairs minister Antonio Tajani that Italy will join Ukraine’s initiative regarding a special tribunal to investigate the crime of Russian aggression.

Great Britain has joined the group of international partners who will seek criminal responsibility for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said the head of the British Foreign Office, James Cleverley. Britain’s participation will include an assessment of the possibility of creating a new “hybrid” tribunal, a specialized court integrated into the national justice system of Ukraine with international elements.

Occupied territories

According to the Ukrainian MOD’s National Resistance Center (NRC), Russian forces have deported more than 2 million Ukrainians from the temporarily occupied territories since the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Russian side plans to issue a Russian passport to each of them. The aggressor country’s authorities decided to legalize the issuance of passports at the place of [temporarily] residence. Previously, the document was issued at the place of official registration. According to the NRC, deportees cannot receive any payments or services without a Russian passport. The NRC believes that in this way, people are forced to accept Russian citizenship.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• Battles of local significance continue in the areas of Svatove, Kreminna, Soledar, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Avdiivka;

• The capture of Klishchiivka will allow the Russian troops to cut the Kostyantynivka – Bakhmut highway (# T0504) and threaten the Joint Forces in Chasiv Yar.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Novoselivske and Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast; Verkhnyokamianske, Krasnopolivka, Soledar, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Diliyivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Pobyeda, Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast and Mala Tokmachka and Stepove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast;
• Defense forces continued their offensive near Svatove, attacking Novoselivske, and advanced to the railway station in the eastern part of the town. They repulsed Russian attacks near Terny and Bilohorivka. Ukrainian artillery defeated the military units of the 58th Army, which tried to attack in the area of Stepove.
• Russian troops made insignificant advances on the northeastern outskirts of Bakhmut and tried to regain the lost positions near Kreminna. Fierce battles occur on the approaches to Kreminna, near Dibrova, in the Soledar area.
• The Russian forces attacked the positions of the Joint Forces along the Krasnopolivka – Rozdolivka – Vesele line and in the direction of Blahodatne. They continued their attempts to capture Avdiivka, and broke through the Ukrainian defenses near Pobieda, reaching the local railway station.
• Units of the Russian Armed Forces continued the local offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They captured four unspecified villages near Orikhiv. Russian sabotage reconnaissance groups conduct reconnaissance in Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Mala Tokmachka, and Nesteryanka areas.

Enemy disposition: No changes were noted.

Escalation indicators:

• Russian forces continue to use incendiary munitions against civilian infrastructure.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Due to the lack of preparation on the part of the Russian grouping in the Republic of Belarus and the lack of preparation of the Russian defense industry to provide it with the required number of weapons and military equipment, the [next attempted] invasion of Ukraine is probably not going to take place before the end of 2023.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• There are 9 warships and 2 submarines at sea. Among them are 6 Kalibr cruise missile carriers (including two submarines). The possible number of missiles on board is up to 40 units.
• In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, 2 patrol boats are located with the purpose of blocking the Azov coast.
• During the last week, Il-76MD military transport planes, which deliver military equipment and ammunition, have been arriving at the “Dzhankoy” military airfield in the occupied Crimea from the central part of the Russian Federation.
• The intensity of the movement of military equipment by road and rail from Crimea to Kherson Oblast remains stable. Railway freight trains arrive on the territory of Kherson Oblast from the Crimean direction, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiyivka” stations.
• In the Kherson direction, the Russian military continues shelling towns and villages along the right bank of the Dnipro River with mortars, rocket and barrel artillery. Velykyi Potyomkinsky and Bilohrudy islands remain in the so-called “grey zone”, from which the Russian forces attack Kherson with artillery and mortar fire. In this regard, the Kherson neighborhoods of Korabel, Naftogavan, Richport, KhBK and the city center are in the zone of constant enemy mortar and artillery fire. Full control of the islands is possible only after the liberation of the left-bank part of Kherson Oblast.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, about 24 sorties of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
• The Grain initiative. The European Business Association appealed to UN Secretary- General António Guterres and the Ambassador of Turkey to Ukraine to do everything possible to increase the number of inspections of ships with Ukrainian agricultural products and promote the extension of the grain initiative. In 2022, Ukraine exported more than 50 million tons of grain, oil crops and their products.
• To date, more than 650 ships with Ukrainian agricultural products on board have already been sent through the “grain corridor” to Asia, Africa and European countries.
• Business trusts, supports the grain initiative and is ready to increase transshipment volumes, but, unfortunately, there are still logistical bottlenecks that block Ukrainian agricultural export. In particular, according to the information of the Oil and Grains Committee of the EBA, in January 2023, the number of inspections of the ships arriving to load Ukrainian agricultural products sharply decreased to 2-3 per day. This means that number of idle vessels will increase, and shipowners and grain exporters will incur serious costs for ship delays, the EBA’s position reads.
• The business also stated that millions of tons of agricultural products remain blocked in Ukraine, so countries that depend on them cannot receive grain in the required quantity precisely because of the war that the Russian Federation has unleashed on the territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, this situation could likely lead to an increase in food prices and inflation around the world.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 20.01.2023

Personnel – almost 119300 people (+770)

Tanks – 3,139 (+3)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,241 (+6);

Artillery systems – 2,129 (+7);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 442 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 220 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,903 (+7); Aircraft – 287 (0);

Helicopters – 277 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,886 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 749 (0);

Boats/ships – 17 (0).

Ukraine, general news

• A Government Commission was formed to investigate the causes of the EC 225 LP helicopter crash that occurred on January 18, 2023, in Brovary, Kyiv Oblast. The government commission has to submit a report on the results of the investigation into the causes of the EC 225 LP helicopter crash to the Cabinet of Ministers by February 18, 2023.
• The government appointed Ivan Vyhivskyi, who headed the national police in Kyiv, as the acting head of the National Police.
• On Friday, January 20, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to build two new power units of the Khmelnytskyi NPP using American technology. “The construction of the AR1000® reactors of the American company Westinghouse in Ukraine is a powerful point in the completion of cooperation with Russia in the field of atomic energy,” – commented Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko.
• During today’s meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal spoke about the government’s three priorities:
  • The start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
  • The creation of a special international tribunal to punish Russian war criminals.
  • The confiscation of Russian assets for the restoration of Ukraine.

International diplomatic aspect

The CIA Director secretly paid a visit to Kyiv to share the US Intelligence Community’s assessments of Russia’s further actions, WP reported. President Volodymyr Zelensky was interested in William Burns’ opinion on possible obstacles to further US support, given the loud voices of some MAGA in the House of Representatives. To the comfort of all Ukrainians, the Biden Administration announced a significant security assistance package worth $2.5 billion.

Volodymyr Zelensky called on the defense ministers, and other officials gathered at the Ukraine Defense Consultative Group’s meeting to turn it into a “tank Ramstein” and the next one into “F16s and long-range missiles’ Ramstein.” Ukraine’s President urged to assist Ukraine promptly, so it will be able to stop the “Russian evil.” Ukraine’s Defense Minister outlined three priorities:

more air defense systems; weapons for offensive operations (tanks, howitzers, ammo); systematic ammo supplies, plus service and repair for armament and machinery.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called on the participants to “dig deeper” into their stocks to help Ukraine repel the Russian aggression. On top of the previously announced contribution by the US and nine “the Tallinn Pledge” countries and Sweden, Finland has announced a €400 million military aid package, its largest to date, including heavy artillery and munitions. The Netherlands is ready to cover the cost of Leopard 2 delivery by third countries and would look at Ukraine’s request to supply F-16 fighter jets with an “open mind.”

Germany derailed hopes for the “tank Ramstein,” making an excuse that it needs to consider the issue further because “there are good reasons for the delivery and there are good reasons against it.” Boris Pistorius, the newly appointed Defense Minister, said that he had instructed officials to audit Germany’s stocks of Leopard 2 tanks, so Germany could “move quickly” in the event of a “positive decision.” Boris Pistorius played a lightning conductor’s role for the German PM, who makes the ultimate (in)decision on tank delivery. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier backed Olaf Scholz’s weapons delivery “leadership.” He elaborated on the need for every responsible politician to ask himself when and under what circumstances the conflict could escalate dramatically.

“We have been hearing such stories for a long time that if we hand over some weapons to Ukraine, then we will provoke Putin. But he acts in such a way that only hard power can stop him,” a Polish deputy foreign minister nailed Germany’s “fundamental problem” with sending tanks to Ukraine. “Consent is a secondary issue. Either we will get this consent, or we ourselves will do what must be done,” the Polish Prime Minister said. Mateusz Morawiecki described Germany as the “least proactive country out of the group,” calling his assessment mild. It’s unlikely that Poland will violate export control regulations; the Poles are rather trying to find an argument to increase pressure on the Germans.

Lloyd Austin warned that “this is a crucial moment. Russia is regrouping, recruiting, and trying to reequip.” So, while Germany fears Russia’s escalation for sending tanks, Russia is gathering forces to escalate further. With the losses of the Ukrainian soldiers that could have been avoided had Germany provided tanks when asked, Germany is inflicting damage on its credibility among the CEE allies. It seems that Berlin wants to avoid being seen as susceptible to pressure by swiftly changing its mind on tanks; therefore, it’s likely that Germany will allow third countries to supply MBTs first and then join them and lead on the quantitative side.

The Kadyrovites decided to copycat the “Ramstein” and proposed Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade launch the production of “Jihad machines,” a buggy type of vehicle for infantry, and establish a center for the repair of military equipment.

Russia, relevant news

• The world’s largest oil field service company SLB has stepped up its business in Russia after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, taking over contracts for providing services and equipment                from                competitors                who                had                left Russia, https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/slb-wins-russia-business-oilfield-rivals-exit-after-ukraine-invasion-2023-01-19/ Reuters reports. According to the documents seen by Reuters, the activity turned out to be rather profitable; SLB’s Russia and Central Asia Reservoir Productivity Unit increased revenue by 25% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the previous quarter. Sanctions experts believe that the company was able to maintain and increase its presence in the Russian market because the sanctions imposed on the Russian oil industry are not comprehensive and are not meant to stop Russian oil production completely.
• In a statement, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili spoke out against the restoration of air communication with Russia and called for tougher conditions for the stay of Russians in the country. The statement was made in response to Irakli Kobakhidze, head of Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party, who had earlier supported restoring air communication with Russia in a conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
• German exports to Russia fell by 59.1% compared to December 2021, amounting to about €800 million, according to the German Federal Statistics Office.

• Deputy head of the Russian Parliament Sergey Mironov posted a photo carrying a copy of a sledgehammer used for the brutal public murder of a former criminal turned into a Wagner mercenary. Sergey Mironov thanked Yevgeny Prigozhin, PMC “Wagner” owner, for a symbolic gift. The murder and admiration of its tool speak volumes about Russia. Russian legislation doesn’t allow private military companies, sending convicted criminals to fight in other countries, or promising a pardon and clearing of all charges, even serial murders. Yevgeny Nuzhin, a citizen of Russia, was publicly murdered, and law- enforcement agencies don’t appear to be investigating it, according to independent media examinations. A chorus of politicians and propagandists call for the execution of traitors though there has been a moratorium on capital punishment since 1996. One of the top legislators propagates the mercenary company, a symbol of the brutal murder, and calls for “breaking through the redoubts of Nazis” [the slur for Ukrainians].

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