CDS Daily brief (21.01.23) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
CDS commentary: “Putin’s nuclear blackmail must not prevent the liberation of Crimea” by Andriy Zagorodnyuk for Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-nuclear-blackmail-must-not-prevent-the-liberation-of-crimea/
- Ukrainian law enforcement has recorded 155 cases of sexual violence committed by the Russian military.
- Electricity production has decreased in Ukraine due to the emergency repair of one of the units at the thermal power plant.
- When discussing POW exchanges, Russia refuses not only to release civilians but also to confirm their capture in most cases, Coordination HQ on the treatment of prisoners of war said.
- In 2022, the majority of Ukrainians in all regions (73%) positively assessed the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, there is a significant regional difference, with 92% positive assessment in the west and 48% in the south.
- Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence will hold a hearing into alleged MOD food procurement at inflated prices.
- The Russian military pays considerable attention to stabilizing the situation near Svatove;
- The Russian advance in Soledar and Klishchiivka areas creates preconditions for the development of tactical success in the operational encirclement of Bakhmut.
- Possible operation situation developments: Russian forces will intensify efforts to operationally encircle Bakhmut, cutting off the Joint Forces’ logistics routes to Bakhmut from Siversk, Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka; The Russian military command will continue the defense on the Svatove-Kreminna frontier, simultaneously preparing a grouping in the north of Luhansk Oblast to conduct a counteroffensive operation in the direction of Lyman-Izyum.
- Crimea: An increased number of air defense equipment is noted. Currently, up to 15 batteries of S-300/400 air defense systems, up to 16 batteries of “Pantsir-M” anti-aircraft missile and gun systems, and 5 EW systems are recorded in Crimea.
- The Wagner PMC will be designated as a significant Transnational Criminal Organization and therefore sanctioned. Yevgeny Prigozhin dared to ask the US Government what crimes his mercenaries’ company had committed.
- The French-language department of the Russian propaganda channel RT France has ceased operations because the French authorities blocked its bank account.
Ukrainian law enforcement has recorded 155 cases of sexual violence committed by the Russian military, most of them in the liberated territories of Kherson and Kyiv Oblasts. At the same time, the head of the specialized department of the Prosecutor General’s Office, Iryna Didenko, noted that the total number of cases of sexual violence committed by the Russian military is much higher. “These numbers reflect only the number of cases when victims are ready to testify now,” she explained.
Near the village of Lyubomirivka in Mykolaiv Oblast, a car hit a mine, 4 people were injured as a result, including a 3-week-old baby, the head of the Mykolaiv Regional Council, Anna Zamazeyeva said.
During the past day, on January 20, as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, five Ukrainian civilians were killed, and 13 more were injured, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported.
On January 20, the Russian occupiers shelled 8 Ukrainian regions. As of 9 a.m. on January 21, the situation is the following:
- Sumy Oblast: yesterday, during the day, the Russian forces shelled two border communities, hitting them 27 times. There were no casualties or damage.
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian occupiers shelled civilian infrastructure during the past day. 18 reports were received about the destruction of houses (apartments) of citizens and infrastructure facilities.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: the Russians shelled the Nikopol district again. Heavy artillery hit the Myrivska community. No victims. There is destruction.
- Kharkiv Oblast: the enemy continues to shell the border territories of the Kupyansk, Chuhuyiv and Kharkiv districts. The city of Vovchansk, Chuhuyiv district, was most affected by the shelling, where hits on a private house were recorded in the morning. A 60-year-old woman died, and a 45-year-old woman and a 7-year-old girl were injured.
- Kherson Oblast: the enemy does not stop shelling residential areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River. A 15-year-old boy was wounded during an artillery attack on Antonivka village. During the day, 2 people were injured due to strikes by Russian troops. Another 2 were blown up by mines. Bomb technicians of the National Police removed 172 explosive objects and destroyed 88.
- Donetsk Oblast: Due to the night shelling, there were direct hits on residential buildings, after which the private residential sector was set on fire, and high-voltage lines were damaged. There are 3 dead and 4 wounded in the region.
Electricity production has decreased in Ukraine due to the emergency repair of one of the units at the thermal power plant, NEC “Ukrenergo” reports. Electricity consumption in the country remains at the level of the previous day. The capacity deficit remains significant.
At a meeting of relatives of POWs with representatives of the Coordination HQ on the treatment of prisoners of war and the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, the HQ Representative informed that according to the Geneva Conventions, civilians should be released without any demands. But Russia refuses not only to release civilians but also to confirm their capture in most cases.
Russian government-owned Sberbank installed the first ATMs in the occupied Crimea – in Yalta, Simferopol, Sevastopol, and also in the Opolzneve village, the bank’s press service reported. Previously, the bank was not represented in Crimea, trying to avoid getting sanctioned for working in the occupied territory.
Operational situation General conclusion:
- The Russian military pays considerable attention to stabilizing the situation near Svatove;
- The Russian advance in the areas of Soledar and Klishchiivka creates preconditions for the development of tactical success in the operational encirclement of Bakhmut.
- Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Novoselivske, Ploschanka and Chervonopopivka of Luhansk Oblast and Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka, Krasna Hora, Yahidne, Bakhmut, Predtechne, Vodyane and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast;
- Head-to-head battles continue near Svatove and Kreminna.
- Ukrainian Defense forces attacked near Kuzemivka, tried to advance to Kreminna from the south, and repelled Russian attacks near Bakhmut itself, in the area of Verkhnyokamianske, Krasnopolivka, Soledar, Krasnaya Hora, near Ivanivske and Diliivka.
- Russian forces tried to advance from the Zhytlivka area in the direction of Terny, attacked Bakhmut, and captured the eastern part of Sil village. The mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC carried out an assault near Blahodatne and continued their attempts to advance to the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. They advanced in the Klishchiivka area.
- Positional battles continue in the Maryinka area.
Enemy disposition: No changes were noted.
- Russian troops used TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems near Novoselivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
- Russian forces will intensify efforts to operationally encircle Bakhmut, cutting off the Joint Forces’ logistics routes to Bakhmut from Siversk, Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka. The way the enemy currently concentrates efforts on assaulting tactically pointless settlements makes operational encirclement a distant prospect;
- The Russian military command will continue the defense on the Svatove-Kreminna frontier, simultaneously preparing a grouping in the north of Luhansk Oblast to conduct a counteroffensive operation in the direction of Lyman-Izyum.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:
- to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
- to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.
The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.
- There are 10 warships and 1 submarine at sea. Among them are 5 Kalibr cruise missile carriers (including 1 submarine). The possible number of missiles on board is up to 36 units.
- In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, 2 patrol boats are located with the purpose of blocking the Azov coast.
- The Russian artillery and MRLS shelling of the port of Ochakiv and surrounding areas from the Kinburn spit continues.
- An increased number of air defense equipment in Crimea is noted. Currently, up to 15 batteries of S-300/400 air defense systems, up to 16 batteries of “Pantsir-M” anti-aircraft missile and gun systems, and 5 EW systems are recorded in Crimea.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 21.01.2023
Personnel – almost 120.160 people (+860)
Tanks – 3,140 (+1)
Armored combat vehicles – 6,256 (+15);
Artillery systems – 2,135 (+6);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 443 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 220 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,918 (+15); Aircraft – 287 (0);
Helicopters – 277 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 1,891 (+5); Intercepted cruise missiles – 749 (0);
Boats/ships – 17 (0).
Ukraine, general news
“Dzerkalo Tyzhnya” published an article claiming that MOD procured food for the rear army units at prices 2-3 times higher than the retail price in one of Kyiv’s supermarkets. The procurement agreement, a copy of which the newspaper has acquired, was signed by the Director of the Department of State Procurement of the Ministry of Defense, Bohdan Khmelnytskyi. In several hours the Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence said that the Committee had called the MOD leaders in for questioning. She added, that the State Audit Service of Ukraine is inspecting MODs procurement practices and thanked Dzekalo Tyzhnya journalists for their work.
The majority of Ukrainians in all regions (73%) have a positive view of the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to a poll by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation. However, there are still 12% who evaluate this historical event negatively, and another 15% are undecided. Last year, almost half (49%) saw the USSR collapse as a positive event, while a third (32%) was negative. The older respondents have more grievances about the USSR collapse: 70.5% of 60 y.o. and older, two-thirds of 50-59 y.o., 54.8% of 40-49 y.o. There’s more sentiment towards the USSR in the East (52.9%) and South (44.8%) than in the rest of the country. In comparison, two-thirds (63%) of Russians feel pity about the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to a November 2021 poll by Levada Centre.
About 73% of Ukrainians support the Ukrainian state’s condemnation of the USSR as a communist totalitarian regime that carried out a state terror policy. Paradoxically, though there is nostalgia about the Soviet times, especially among the older generation, only 9.3% disagree with the condemnation of the crimes of the Soviet regime. The war made a significant impact on the perception of the Ukrainians. In 2020, only around a third condemned the crimes of the Soviet regime, while another third disagreed with such an attitude, and another third didn’t have an opinion.
International diplomatic aspect
The White House showed evidence that North Korea delivered infantry rockets and missiles into Russia for use by the so-called Wagner private military company. The company is reported to operate approximately 50,000 personnel in Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts. The Wagner PMC has been committing war crimes in Ukraine and elsewhere, which is why the Department of the Treasury will designate it as a significant Transnational Criminal Organization. When defined as such, the Wagner will be in the company of Bratva (“criminal brothers”), Camorra, Yakuza, and Los Zetas, which are the Russian, Italian, Japanese, and Mexican criminal syndicates. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner PMC, sent a letter to John Kirby, the Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the US National Security Council, asking the question, “could you name a crime committed by the Wagner PMC?”
Russia, relevant news
Dmitry Gusev, a member of the working group under the Ministry of Defense on mobilization issues and the first deputy head of the “Just Russia – For Truth” party, said that the mobilized
citizens would remain in the Russian Armed Forces until the end of the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
The French-language department of the Russian propaganda channel RT France has ceased operations due to the freezing of its bank accounts. The decision was made in compliance with the 9th sanctions package of the European Union. The French Foreign Ministry stressed that the decision is legitimate. The Russian MFA threatened retaliation against French media working in Russia.
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