CDS Daily brief (22.01.23) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
- According to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, the number of Ukrainian children victims of Russian aggression has increased in recent days. As of today, 459 children died, and more than 914 were injured of varying degrees of severity;
- On January 21, the Russian military shelled 7 Ukrainian regions, injuring 10 civilians.
- The enemy has to transfer reserves to the Kreminna region, where it suffers losses;
- The strengthening of the Russian grouping in the Zaporizhzhia direction may indicate the preparation of a counteroffensive operation. Currently, the grouping has 25-28 BTGs in a two-echelon operational structure.
- The enemy will try to cut the highway T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut.
- Sea: Currently, Ukraine controls approximately 20% of its access to the sea, the section of the northern coast of the Black Sea from the Danube Delta to the Dnipro Delta; Russia controls the southwestern part of the Kherson region (outlet to the Black Sea), the Crimean Peninsula and the northern coast of the Sea of Azov. Ukraine needs to increase its Navy capabilities to conduct amphibious operations, control the coastal area of the sea and cut off the enemy’s aggression.
- Boris Johnson paid an unofficial visit to Kyiv.
- Rep. Michael McCaul calls to send at least one M1 Abrams tank to Ukraine to push Germany to unblock its supply. France may send its Leclerc MBTs to Ukraine, while Olaf Scholz repeats his words of the necessity of a collective decision that includes the US.
- It’s reported that the US officials had a “fierce exchange of words” with their German counterparts and offered European nations replacement German tanks with American ones for all who will send Leopards to Ukraine. Such a decision will harm the German defense industry and allow the US to strengthen its industrial footprint on the continent.
As of the morning of January 22, more than 1,373 Ukrainian children have suffered as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 459 children died, and more than 914 were injured of varying degrees of severity, the Office of the Prosecutor General reports.
- On January 20, a 14-year-old boy was wounded by enemy fire in Kherson, and a 15-year- old boy was injured by a mine detonation in Nova Petrivka village, Kherson Oblast.
- On January 21, a 7-year-old girl was injured due to the Russian shelling of Vovchansk, Kharkiv region.
- A civilian car with the baby inside was blown up on the road near the village of Lyubomirivka, Mykolaiv Oblast.
- A 17-year-old boy was injured due to shelling by Russian troops in the Studenok, Sumy Oblast.
3,126 educational institutions were damaged due to bombing and shelling by the armed forces of the Russian Federation. 337 of them were completely destroyed.
As a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, more than 1,200 objects of Ukrainian cultural infrastructure were damaged, including more than 500 cultural monuments, stated the Minister of Culture and Information Policy, Oleksandr Tkachenko. The issue of restoring damaged or destroyed cultural infrastructure objects is being discussed with Western partners.
During the past day, January 21, as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, 10 Ukrainian civilians were injured, Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported. On January 21, the Russian occupiers shelled 7 Ukrainian regions.
- Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Siversky, Zvanivska and Marinska communities of Donetsk Oblast were under Russian fire. A house was damaged in Bakhmut. The shelling of Paraskoviivka and the outskirts of Soledar continues. 2 residents of Donetsk Oblast residents were wounded.
- The Russian military shelled the territory of Kherson Oblast 49 times; 3 civilians were wounded. In Kherson, enemy shells hit the state enterprise, the port, the bread factory and the residential houses. Today, Jan 22, the Russian military again shelled Oleshki, hitting a school.
- After 8:00 a.m., the Russians shelled the Seredyno-Budsk community of Sumy Oblast with artillery.
- The enemy shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast three times during the night. In Marhanets, a lyceum, an industrial enterprise, a water supply pumping station, and an administrative building were mutilated. In a nearby village, shells damaged the power line.
- Over the past day, national police received 36 reports of destruction due to enemy shelling in Hulyaipole, Orihiv, and in populated areas of Zaporizhzhia, Polohy, and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- The enemy continues to shell the border towns and villages of the Kupyansk, Chuhuyiv and Kharkiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. In Kupyansk, a milk-canning plant and two private houses were damaged. Private buildings were destroyed in Vovchansk. There is one wounded civilian in Veterynarne. On January 22, the Russian shelling killed a 67-year-old woman in Petrivka village. Also, enemy tanks hit the cemetery in Guryiv Kozachok village and damaged graves. In Vovchansk, the Russians hit a 5-story building and a private house; 1 injured civilian was reported.
Operational situation General conclusion:
- The enemy is forced to transfer reserves to the Kreminna region, where it suffers losses;
- The strengthening of the Russian grouping in the Zaporizhzhia direction may indicate the preparation of a counteroffensive operation.
- Units of the Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Novoselivske in Luhansk Oblast and Terny, Serebryansk forestry, Verkhnyokamianske, Bilohorivka, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Pervomaiske, Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka, Predtechne, Maryinka, Vodyane and Pobyeda in Donetsk Oblast.
- The enemy tried to restore the lost position along the Svatove-Kreminna line; fighting continued in the Bilohorivka area. A slight advance of Russian troops was noted on the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut. In the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka area, Russian units captured Dvoriche and Krasnopolivka. They tried to advance from Dyliivka to Bila Hora and are fighting for control of the western part of Maryinka.
During the last two weeks, the enemy has been building up its grouping in the Zaporizhzhia direction between Kamianske and Nove Pole. Currently, it has 25-28 BTGs in a two-echelon operational structure:
- two regimental tactical groups from the 429th and 503rd motorized rifle regiments (MRR) of the 19th motorized rifle division (MRD), 3 BTGs each,
- a combined battalion of the 4th Army (South Ossetia);
- three regimental tactical groups from the 70th and 71st MRRs of the 42nd MRD,
- 78th separated motorized special purpose regiment “Akhmat-North”,
- in reserve: the battalion of the 291st MRR; 1430th MRR of Territorial Forces; 129th rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps.
Additionally, deployed to the operational zone:
- BTGs of the 11th separate airborne assault brigade,
- two BTGs of the 37th separate motorized rifle brigade and two BTGs of the 5th separate tank brigade of the 36th Army of the Eastern Military District.
- A consolidated tactical group of the Federal Service of the National Guard of the Russian Federation consisting of up to four regiments and operational brigades, including the “Akhmat-Center” and “Akhmat-South” battalions.
The artillery group supports the grouping’s operations, consisting of the 50th and 292nd self- propelled artillery regiments, and the 291st artillery brigade; up to 10 divisions in total.
Up to four squadrons of army aviation support the grouping from airfields in Crimea and field sites in the defense lane of the 58th Army.
- The enemy tried to conduct reconnaissance in the Yunakivska community of Sumy Oblast.
Possible operation situation developments:
- The enemy will try to cut the highway T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:
- to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
- to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.
The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.
Currently, Ukraine controls approximately 20% of its access to the sea, the section of the northern coast of the Black Sea from the Danube Delta to the Dnipro Delta. Meanwhile, the seaports of Odesa, Ochakiv, Pivdenny, Chornomorsk and Mykolaiv, located in this area, continue to suffer from periodic enemy missile attacks and kamikaze drones. In addition, the port of Ochakiv is subjected to almost daily artillery attacks and MLRS strikes from the Kinburn Peninsula. In March-May 2022, this section of the coast was under the fire control of surface ships of the Russian Navy, which periodically shelled the Ukrainian coast with artillery from a distance of 10- 15 km from the coast.
The Russian Federation continues to control about 80% of Ukrainian access to the sea: the southwestern part of the Kherson region (outlet to the Black Sea), the Crimean peninsula and the northern coast of the Sea of Azov.
Without increasing the capabilities of the Navy of Ukraine to conduct amphibious operations, to control the coastal area of the sea and cut off the enemy’s aggression, the return of captured sea areas and the coast is challenging.
There are 11 enemy warships at sea. Of them, there are 4 carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles. The possible number of missiles on board is up to 32 units.
2 patrol boats are stationed in the waters of the Sea of Azov on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports in order to block the Azov coast.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 22.01.2023
Personnel – almost 120,760 people (+600)
Tanks – 3,145 (+5)
Armored combat vehicles – 6,268 (+12);
Artillery systems – 2,144 (+9);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 445 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 220 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,932 (+14); Aircraft – 287 (0);
Helicopters – 277 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 1,892 (+1); Intercepted cruise missiles – 749 (0);
Boats/ships – 17 (0).
International diplomatic aspect
Boris Johnson, a former UK PM, made a surprise visit to Kyiv. Boris Johnson visited Bucha and Borodyanka, the capital’s suburbs towns, where Russians committed numerous war crimes that shocked the world but not Russians who [still] believe it was staged. Much criticized at home, Boris Johnson is welcome in Ukraine for his personal courage (he was the first Western leader to visit Kyiv when it was too dangerous, just two weeks after Russian troops had been driven back from the suburbs of the capital), fierce rhetoric for Ukraine’s cause, and his role as a whip among the European politicians.
Rep. Michael McCaul, the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called the Administration to send at least one M1 Abrams tank to Ukraine to push Germany to unblock its supply. While meeting Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron said that France does not rule out delivering Leclerc MBTs to Ukraine. Olaf Scholz once again responded ambivalently that all decisions on weapons deliveries would be made in coordination with allies, including the United States.
It’s been reported in the German press that the US Secretary of Defense and National Security Advisor had a “fierce exchange of words” with their German counterparts for putting forward conditions on Leopards’ transfer to Ukraine. It has also been reported that the US offered tank replenishment from its stocks and a long-term industrial partnership to any European nation that will deliver Leopard 2 MBTs to Ukraine. It’s quite a carrot for the European nations and a stick for Germany, whose industry may lose a considerable market. However, any country that agrees to such an offer needs German consent if it doesn’t want to violate the export control framework.
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